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Vol. 11, No. 50 / March 14, 2013
Representative Tom Latham, an Iowa Republican, asked Dr. • Mink report
Elizabeth Hagen, USDA Undersecretary for Food Safety, the question • Milk production reports including production disposition and income
many have been asking regarding the ongoing service cuts at USDA:
Have you been told to make these cuts as painful as possible? It is • June on– and off-farm stocks for Austrian winter peas, chickpeas,
difficult to believe that the proposed furloughs of meat inspectors and dry peas and lentils
reductions of USDA reports are the only — or even the best — ways to • July acreage forecasts for Austrian winter peas, dry edible peas
meet budget shortfalls, especially in light of the proposed country-of- and lentils.
origin labeling rule change that pretty much pokes Canada and Mexico Obviously, the eliminated report that most directly impacts
with a sharp stick instead of solving the trade case at hand.
readers of The Daily Livestock Report is the July Cattle (often called
Dr. Hagen’s proposal to furlough USDA meat inspectors all on Cattle Inventory) report. That report is very similar to the January re-
the same day for 11 days beginning in mid-July is catching heat from port of the same name and, according to procedure information includ-
many fronts. The action, which she and Secretary of Agriculture Tom ed near the end of the reports, is based on a survey sample the same
Vilsack say are necessary due to the across-the-board nature of the size as the January report. USDA reports that the January report is
sequestration cuts, would slow the flow of meat animals and poultry generally more accurate than is its July counterpart based on smaller
through the slaughter process since plants are not allowed to operate root mean square errors and smaller average differences between first
without inspectors being present. The USDA officials, of course, try to and final estimates.
make the case that the reductions will cause “spotty meat shortages The trade is somewhat mixed regarding the impact of the re-
from a slowed-down production system in the summer and early fall.”
port. Jim Robb, Director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center
Warning consumers of “shortages” is always a good scare tactic. Re-
(LMIC) in Denver, pointed out in a report by Reuters that the report
member the reaction of the press last fall when a British pig industry sometimes provides very timely information about changes in the U.S.
official suggested that there may be a “shortage” of bacon?
beef herd. He specifically pointed to last summer’s indication that
On the contrary, a manufactured slowdown in the flow of ani- ranchers had reversed expansion plans. On the other hand, the Reu-
mals to slaughter would likely have a larger impact on the value of ani- ters report quoted two other analysts saying that the report seldom
mals by a) backing them up on farms and b) causing production to in- brought useful information to the market that could not otherwise be
crease due to additional weight gain. Depending on how the furloughs deduced. As with many things, there is truth in both statements. Our
are spaced, there will almost certainly be pigs, cattle and turkeys that go observation is that the July report has seldom been a big market mover.
to market 8-11 days later than they would under a normal production But that doesn’t mean it is not valuable, especially in years like 2011
flow. The impact on chickens may be smaller due to their shorter 5– to and 2012 when drought conditions gripped large cow-calf areas and
7-week feeding period. The number of animals in the pipeline is pretty impacted feed prices.
much set. Slowing the rate at which they are removed means MORE The most shocking inclusion on the list is perhaps the milk
product, not less and we fear that that means lower prices for produc-
production reports. And it is this one that suggests a “make it painful”
ers. But it’s hard to scare consumers (ie. voters) with that threat. motive may be involved. We are reminded of the answer to the ques-
The other budget-cutting measure in the news is the suspen- tion “Why is the dairy lobby so strong?” that was once posed any time
sion of a number of statistical reports from the National Agricultural Sta- someone wondered why we had such generous dairy subsidies. The
tistics Service (NASS). It appears that all of the reports set for suspen- answer: Because every state has at least one dairy cow and two Sena-
sion are focused on supplies, not prices. In addition, note that this is a tors. It follows that if you want to get lawmakers’ attention, start mess-
suspension for the rest of the fiscal year which ends September 30. ing with the dairy industry’s information.
NASS has suggested in past public meetings that it may have to elimi-
According to Katelyn McCullock, Dairy and Forage Economist
nate certain reports due to budget restrictions. We don’t think these at LMIC, the suspension of the milk reports mean that there is
reports are being eliminated — yet. The suspended reports are:
“absolutely zero” output data available through NASS for “a perishable
• All catfish and trout reports including catfish feed deliveries and commodity whose price is highly sensitive to small changes in supply.”
processing. Some data are available through federal milk marketing orders and
• July Cattle report dairy checkoffs but these data will be complex to use as some areas
have more than one order and more than one checkoff in place.
• Potato Stocks report The conundrum, of course, is that every existing report is very
• All non-citrus fruit, nut and vegetable forecasts and estimates important to someone but tighter federal budgets —even without the
• June Rice Stocks report cuts posed by sequestration — will likely force tough decisions. But
still, let’s carefully consider the Hops report whose suspension or elimi-
• All hops and hops stocks estimates nation may effect your BEER supplies. Enough said.
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