Overview of urbanization in Asia highlighting some of the transformations affecting cities and urban areas

1. Urbanization in Asia
Jorge Carrillo-Rodriguez
3rd March 2015

2. Urbanization implies…
• physical and/or demographic expansion of
urban areas: increase in the number of cities,
urban population, or the size of urban areas
• increased complexity of national systems of
cities, increased differentiation between cities in
terms of their economies, demographic
composition, social dynamics and political role.
• increasing dominance of urban views regardless
of geographical location

3. Drivers of urbanization
• Natural growth
• Internal migration
• International migration
• Reclassification
• Climate change/disaster
• Conflict

4. Pace of urbanization
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
World
Africa
Asia
Latin America
Europe
North America
Rate of Change of the Percentage Urban

5. Scale of Asian urbanization
Urban Rural Total % Urban
World 3,880,128 3,363,656 7,243,784 53.6
Asia 2,064,211 2,278,044 4,092,157 47.5
Africa 455 345 682 885 1 138 229 40.0
Europe 545 382 197 431 742 813 73.4
Latin America 495 857 127 565 623 422 79.5
North America 291 860 66 376 358 236 81.5

6. Where the urban is…
Agglomeration Country 1990 2014 2030
projection
Tokyo Japan 32,530 37,833 37,190
Delhi India 9,726 24,953 36,060
Shanghai China 7,823 22,991 30,751
Mumbai India 12,436 20,741 27,797
Kinki (Osaka) Japan 18,389 20,123 19,976
Beijing China 6,788 19,520 27,706
Dhaka Bangladesh 6,621 16,982 27,374
Karachi Pakistan 7,147 16,126 24,838
Kolkata India 10,890 14,766 19,092
Chongqing China 4,011 12,916 17,380
Manila Philippines 7,973 12,764 16,756
Guangzhou,
Guangdong
China 3,072 11,843
17,574
Tianjin China 4,558 10,860 14,655
Shenzhen China 875 10,680 12,673
Jakarta Indonesia 8,175 10,176 13,812
Seoul Rep. of Korea 10,518 9,775 9,960
Bangalore India 4,036 9,718 14,762
Chennai India 5,338 9,620 13,921
Bangkok Thailand 5,888 9,098 11,528
Hyderabad India 4,193 8,670 12,774
Lahore Pakistan 3,970 8,500 13,033

7. Where the urban really is…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
>10
5-10
1-5
0.5 - 1
0.5>
Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement

8. Asia - no single storyline
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
ASIA
East Asia
Central Asia
South Asia
South-East Asia

9. Shrinking cities
2000 - 2014
Khulna Bangladesh -212
Fushun, Liaoning China -53
Keelung China -10
Liaoyuan China -7
Yichun, Heilongjiang China -161
Hamhung North Korea -85
Palembang Indonesia -5
Yogyakarta Indonesia -12
Asahikawa Japan -15
Nagasaki Japan -34
Sendai Japan -71
Taraz Kazakhstan -16
Busan Republic of Korea -358
Changwon Republic of Korea -35
Daegu Republic of Korea -73
Seoul Republic of Korea -103

10. Engines of economic growth
Share of cities in GDP (2007)
Sub-region GDP share (%) Population share (%)
China region 74 43
South Asia 31 18
Southeast Asia 48 21
Northeast Asia 71 65
Australasia 68 65
Estimated GDP for the largest urban economies in the region
(US$ billion; 2010)
Tokyo 1,874.7 Hong Kong 224.5
Moscow 325.8 Singapore 222.7
Sydney 268.9 Melbourne 221.4
Shanghai 250.7 Beijing 206.2
Seoul 233.3 Istanbul 188.2

11. Decreasing urban poverty
Country Year
% of urban
population
Year
% of urban
population
Bangladesh 1992 42.7 2010 21.3
India 1994 31.8 2010 20.9
Indonesia 1996 13.6 2012 8.8
Pakistan 1999 20.9 2006 13.1
Thailand 1990 20.5 2011 9
Viet Nam 1993 25.1 2010 6

12. Emerging middle class
Country
Percentage
point change
in population
share
Change in
population
(million)
Armenia 76.5 2.3
Azerbaijan 35.1 3.1
Bangladesh 8.3 18.5
Cambodia 24 4
China 61.4 844.6
India 12.8 205
Indonesia 46.3 113.7
Kazakhstan -6.7 -2.2
Kyrgyz
Republic -14.9 -0.1
Lao PDR 28.9 1.9
Malaysia 5.6 6.5
Mongolia 24.4 1
Nepal -5.8 -0.6
Pakistan 36.5 65.9
Philippines 12 23.6
Sri Lanka -10.1 -0.9
Tajikistan -3.9 0.3
Thailand 17.6 17.2
Turkmenistan 15.2 0.9
Viet Nam 57.4 49.3

13. Living in slums
1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
China 43.6 40.5 37.3 32.9 31.0
Mongolia 68.5 66.0 0.7 64.9 57.9
Bangladesh 87.3 84.7 77.8 70.8 70.8
India 54.9 48.2 41.5 34.8 32.1
Nepal 70.6 67.3 64.0 60.7 59.4
Pakistan 51.0 49.8 48.7 47.5 47.0
Cambodia 78.9
Indonesia 50.8 42.6 34.4 26.3 23.0
Laos 79.3
Myanmar 45.6
Philippines 54.3 50.8 47.2 43.7 42.3
Thailand 26.0
Viet Nam 60.5 54.6 48.8 41.3 38.3
% Urban living in slums

14. Inadequate housing
1990 2005 2009
% millions % millions % millions
Bangladesh 87.3 20.0 70.8 27.8 61.6 27.5
China 43.6 131.7 32.9 183.5 29.1 180.6
India 54.9 121.0 34.8 112.9 29.4 104.7
Indonesia 50.8 27.6 26.3 24.8 23.0 23.3
Nepal 70.6 1.2 60.7 2.6 58.1 3.1
Pakistan 51.0 18.1 47.5 27.2 46.6 30.0
Philippines 54.3 16.5 43.7 18.0 40.9 18.3
Vietnam 60.5 8.1 41.3 9.5 35.2 9.2

15. Urban Inequality
City Year
Gini
Coefficient
City Year
Gini
Coefficient
Chiang Mai 2006 0.58 Colombo 2002 0.46
Hong Kong 2001 0.53 Davao City 2003 0.44
Ho Chi Minh City 2002 0.53 Nonthaburi 2006 0.43
Bangkok 2006 0.48 Kuala Lumpur 1999 0.41
Moscow 2001 0.47 Manila 2006 0.4

16. No more business as usual…
• Cities have outgrown model, i.e. self-contain industries
• Climate change type of issues required looking beyond
the "economic", holistic development
• Local economic development: centre for peri-urban
areas, smaller cities, neighbouring cities
• Dependency on economies of larger cities, driver
regional and/or global development
• Cooperation & competition
• “Engines” not only large capital/manufacturing centres
• From poverty to inequality

17. The New Urban
• Urbanization is a dynamic process – the composition of
urban populations constantly changes, economic
opportunities come and go, and new lifestyles and
choices continually emerge.
• The analysis, design and implementation of urban
programmes and interventions must respond to this new
context. Many views and perspectives that dominated
urban studies for many years do not apply to the rapidly
changing cities of today.

18. Young cities, old countries
• Asia: simultaneous urbanization and ageing
• Location of health centres and medical services
tend to favour urban areas
• Migrants usually the young
• Traditional views of an older person as a burden
• Potential for different social roles
• Physical design of cities not ready for older
persons

19. What women want…
Cities offer:
• employment and financial independence,
• access to better health care, education
• creative expression and potential transformation of
traditional gender roles
However,
• Lack of safety in public spaces and neglect of gender violence
• Failure to understand how women and men experience cities
differently
• Most women who migrate to the city end up in a low-paying
job or informal sector work with little income, hazardous
working conditions

20. Informal is normal
• Makes the city function: transport, recycling,
waste management, food
• Provides livelihood & shelter for migrants and
the poor
• Safety net in crisis or jobless growth
• Line formal/informal blurred, people & services
move across sector
• Formalization/eradication is failing
• Need to informalize the formal

21. Urban diversity
• Cultural demographics of cities are constantly
being reshaped
▫ Internal mobility: communications and transport
▫ International migration: trade needs, ease of
transportation & economic demand for labour
• Urban diversity driven by macroeconomic values
rather than cultural values
• Tension between ethnic & cultural diversity as
an asset, and nationalistic agendas

22. The rise of secondary cities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
>10
5-10
1-5
0.5 - 1
0.5>
Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement

23. The rise of secondary cities
• Increasingly complex systems of cities
• Types of secondary cities
▫ subnational administrative centres of government or of a
particular resource or function;
▫ clustered secondary cities that grow like mushrooms on the
periphery of large urban centres;
▫ economic corridor secondary cities emerging along major
transport routes between large cities within countries and
across countries.
• Multiple functions
▫ Implement national policies and plans
▫ Act as centre for the development of their region
▫ Compete at the regional or global level

24. The list continues…
• Resilient people: the challenge of climate change
• The need for innovation/technology
• The disappearance of the rural-urban divide
• Urban citizens =Digital citizens
• Smart cities, creative cities, green cities…
• etc.