Linear regression analysis to forecast work trips in transport planning

EDSP 557
Phonological Awareness Activity
Part I: Grouping Students for Instruction
DIBELS Information
Code: PSF1, PSF2 = 1st Grade Phoneme Segmentation Time 1,
2 (Fall, Winter)
Activity:Use the student scores to determine instructional
groups. What students would
benefit from additional explicit instruction in phonemic
awareness in fall and winter?
Benchmarks
Levels Beginning of the Year Middle of the year
At Risk < 10 < 10
Emerging Between 10-34 Between 10-34
Established > 35 > 35
Student Name PSF1 PSF2
Amy 12 48
Brian 33 47
Charlie 7 8
David 38 47
Eduardo 9 14
Fernando 13 20
Garrett 30 36
Halley 35 49
Ignacio 29 35
Justin 9 7

Kari 12 15
Lani 33 49
Marisol 9 13
Groups
Benchmark Instruction Strategic Instruction Intensive
Instruction
Part II: Phonological Awareness Intervention Instruction
Once we have identified students experiencing early difficulty
with this “big idea,” we
can plan instruction to meet students’ needs. Intervention would
likely take place in a
small group with students who have similar needs. For this
activity, we will look at one
student who is at high risk of reading difficulty. Look at some
of Charlie’s responses on
the PSF assessment at Time 2:
Charlie PSF2:
bad /b/ /a/ /d/ lock /l/ /o/ /k/
that /TH/ /a/ /t/ pick /p/ /i/ /k/

mine /m/ /ie/ /n/ noise /n/ /oi/ /z/
Diagnostic Questions:
1. What does Charlie know? What are his phonological
strengths? This will tell us
the starting place for instruction.
2. Do you see a trend or pattern in his segmentation
performance? What types of
errors are prevalent in Charlie’s performance?
Instructional Questions
1. If you wanted to start with a phonological task that Charlie
could have some
success with, what would it be?
2. What would be a logical progression of segmenting
instruction for Charlie?
3. Assuming that Charlie’s phonological performance is similar
to others in his
intervention group, select and describe three activities that
would be appropriate

for building skills in this area and helping these students reach
the target.
t
transport/BASE.xls
Sheet1BASE YEAR LAND USE AND TRAVEL DATAZone
NoPopulationLabour ForceCars OwnedIncomeComm EmpMan
EmplOther EmpTotal trips producedTotal trips
attracted116396494314423357348776478118522352945684530
04262910718261043353552342201367641292294204218724314
37801592157581945644402155514755162641228493132178101
43408966173371911596344422625511034537565320841412655
87540431213737378283714411140741716703140149285994583
18331338706335419131917624141026289296658385180302063
14105119004633046600201802046816812264510697464379205
42087354077669591369652787209854331454972821179621410
09637493301595782413768123769300215596923881759430524
92912435155421641649041964112150341071807182011282869
17712528511998524025116456422454253718334213511030676
31191434236130325011983303332282561321551819127527402
04742431396000118155536412321186574657754170013446452
21136144163350614810078116363914201023148604045001001
06102241706847450042110018025301120914000142677297386
26149895995452955893112289146644582745272906116499161
58185275753261283595143910878072802669830629365146111
600028533116118243
&A
Page &P
Sheet2
&A
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&A

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transport/CIVE2355CourseWorkPartB_Hints_Task2.pdf
CIVE2355 Transport Engineering and Planning
Part B Semester-2 2013/14
Assignment 2
J.Y.T.Wang
16/04/14
3
Task 2 - Trip Generation
Hints:
1. Dependent Variables
You are required to recommend two equations to estimate two
dependent
variables:
Y1
Total trips produced
Y2
Total trips attracted
2. Independent Variables

You may choose to include any one or combinations of more
than one
independent variables out of the set given:
X1
Population
X 2
Labour Force
X 3
Car Owned
X 4
Income
X5
Commercial Employment (Comm Emp)
X 6
Manufacturing Employment (Man Emp)
X 7
Other Employment (Other Emp)
For example, you might like to consider some possible
combinations for
Equation 1:
Y1 = a + b1 X1
Y1 = a + b2 X 2
Y1 = a + b1 X 3
Y1 = a + b1 X1 + B4 X 4

etc.
3. How to select the best equation?
Please refer to Supplementary Example provided on VLE under:
Part B Learning Resources
Part B Chapter 3 Strategic Transport Planning Model
Attached Files: Supplementary materials on linear regression
and Example
(Homework)
Solution
transport/CIVE2355CourseWorkPartB_Hints_Task3.pdf
Assignment 2

J.Y.T.Wang
4/24/2014
6
Task 3 - Trip Distribution and Trip Assignment (30% of
Assignment 2)
Base Data
1
5
2
6
3
4
51 52

53 54 55
56
57 58 59
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2

2
3
2
2
2
Zone Population Employment
1
2
3
4
5
6
1000
1800
600
800

2000
-
-
-
-
-
800
800
Totals 6200 1600
External (including Through) Trips
51+ to 5 200 51+ to 6 200 51+ to 59 100
55+ to 5 100 55+ to 6 100 59+ to 51 100
59+ to 5 200 57+ to 6 100
52+ to 5 100 59+ to 6 100

Assignment 2
J.Y.T.Wang
4/24/2014
7
Required Analysis
Description
Task 3.1
Determine and plot the minimum path trees for each zone
separately in the
(assume 2-minute
intra-zonal travel time)
Task 3.2 Singly-constrained gravity model
Determine the trip matrix for 1000 shopping trips per day (total)

from zones 1
to 5, to zone 6 (use n-value approx. equal to 2, as allocated in
VLE).
Task 3.3 Doubly-constrained gravity model
Determine the trip matrix for 1600 work trips per day (total)
from zones 1 to 5,
to zones 5 and 6 (800 trips to each zone) (use n-value approx.
equal to 1, as
allocated in VLE).
Task 3.4 Determine the total shopping and work trip matrix by
adding the respective
matrices.
Task 3.5 Determine the trips on the network by using "all or
nothing" assignment (for the
directional one-way trips only, to 5 and 6 respectively) - this
includes internal
and external (including through) trips. Intra-zonal trips will not
be modelled.
Note: You MUST USE the templates supplied in VLE for Tasks

3.1 & 3.5.
Due date: 28 April 2014 16:00
Please submit to School of Civil Engineering coursework
letterbox
Please note:
1. There is NO need to have your assignment typed, provided
your handwriting is
clearly legible.
2. Computer printout/ Hand written
You are free to hand in computer printouts of your calculations
as long as you
show me details of every step you made in the computer
printout. However,
printouts of Excel formulae in the cells ARE NOT
ACCEPTABLE. This is for
your own benefit because marks are given based on your steps,
NOT ONLY THE

ANSWER.
3. Assignment 2 will count 15% towards your final grade.
Assignment 2
J.Y.T.Wang
4/24/2014
8
Hints:
1. Tasks 3.2 & 3.3
You will need to apply a singly-constrained and doubly-
constrained gravity
model for Tasks 3.2 & 3.3, respectively.

2. Meaning of n-value
The n-value posted on VLE is the exponent value in the gravity
model as
illustrated in Example 3.2.1-3.2.6. The formulae that you
should use for this
task are:
T
ij
i
A
j
t
ij
n
A
j
t

ij
n
j
P
i
t
ij
n
P
i
t
ij
n
i

where T
ij
is the number of trips from zone i to j
iP is the population /target production from zone i
jA is the employment /target attraction at zone j
t
ij
is the travel time from zone i to j
n is the calibrated exponent value
3. Task 3.5
When you assign the trips to the network, T
55
does not need to be assigned
(but it does NOT mean that it is zero). We do not assign intra-

zonal trips in
trip assignment. Please see updated solutions of Examples 3.2.4
& 3.2.5.
1
5
2
6
3
4
51 52
53 54 55
56
57 58 59
Hint: You’ll need to fill in the one-way flows on the red and

blue arrows, i.e. on each
link and centroid connector, respectively.
transport/CIVE2355CourseWorkPartB_Task2.pdf
Coursework
J.Y.T.Wang
3/17/2014
2
Assignment 2

letterbox
Please note:
your handwriting is
clearly legible.
2. This assignment will count 15% towards your final grade.
Task 2 - Trip Generation (30%)
Consider the base year land use and travel data in Table 1,
(i) Determine possible linear regression equations for total work
trip production and
trip attraction estimation;
(ii) Estimate the parameters in the regression equations;
(iii) Determine the coefficient of determination (i.e. R2 ) of
each equation;
(iv) Comment on the empirical validity of the parameters in the

linear regression
equations;
(v) Explain the reasons for selecting the chosen linear
regression equations (as
opposed to other alternatives that you have considered) for
work trip productions
and attractions; and
(vi) Apply the chosen linear regression equations to the horizon
year land use and
travel data (as shown in Table 2) to forecast the work trip
productions and
attractions.
Please note that a soft copy of the data is provided in Excel
format in VLE.
Coursework

J.Y.T.Wang
3/17/2014
3
Table 1 Base Year Landuse and Travel Data
Zone No Population Labour Force Cars Owned Income Comm
Emp Man Empl Other Emp Total trips produced Total trips
attracted
1 1639 649 431 4423 357 348 776 478 1185
2 2352 945 684 5300 42 629 1071 826 1043
3 5355 2342 2013 6764 129 2294 204 2187 2431
4 3780 1592 1575 8194 5 644 402 1555 1475
5 1626 412 284 9313 2 178 1014 340 896
6 1733 719 1159 6344 42 262 55 1103 453

7 5653 2084 1412 6558 75 404 312 1373 737
8 2837 1441 1140 7417 16 703 140 1492 859
9 4583 1833 1338 7063 354 191 319 1762 414
10 2628 929 665 8385 180 30 206 314 105
11 900 463 304 6600 20 180 20 468 168
12 2645 1069 746 4379 2054 2087 3540 776 6959
13 6965 2787 2098 5433 145 49 728 2117 962
14 10096 3749 3301 5957 824 1376 812 3769 3002
15 5969 2388 1759 4305 249 2912 435 1554 2164
16 4904 1964 1121 5034 107 1807 1820 1128 2869
17 7125 2851 1998 5240 251 1645 642 2454 2537
18 3342 1351 1030 6763 119 1434 236 1303 2501
19 8330 3332 2825 6132 155 18 191 2752 740

20 474 243 139 6000 118 155 53 64 123
21 1865 746 577 5417 0 0 13 446 45
22 11361 4416 3350 6148 1007 811 636 3914 2010
23 148 60 40 4500 1 0 0 106 102
24 170 68 47 4500 4 21 100 18 0
25 301 120 91 4000 14 267 72 97 386
26 14989 5995 4529 5589 311 2289 1466 4458 2745
27 2906 1164 991 6158 18 52 75 753 261
28 3595 1439 1087 8072 8 0 26 698 306
29 365 146 111 6000 28 533 116 118 243

Coursework
J.Y.T.Wang
3/17/2014
4
Table 2 Horizon Year Landuse and Travel Data
Zone No Population Labour Force Cars Owned Income Comm
Emp Man Empl Other Emp
1 1838 690 456 5528 583 391 1510
2 2111 701 642 6625 45 575 895
3 5609 1892 1923 8455 167 2550 295
4 4610 1585 1598 10242 172 628 401
5 5197 1710 1822 11641 48 174 4319
6 5988 1999 1683 7930 135 1391 409
7 5962 1802 1509 8197 114 431 1326
8 3667 1223 1102 9271 108 1424 306
9 5082 1355 1095 8828 434 210 273
10 2347 804 622 10481 209 30 196
11 957 321 305 8250 27 205 23

12 2443 820 590 5473 2508 2300 5600
13 7147 2385 2103 6791 208 35 1644
14 10305 3452 3149 7446 1053 1443 1159
15 6244 2090 1698 5381 284 2210 770
16 5502 1852 1251 6292 223 1653 2861
17 7563 2521 1982 6550 269 1504 841
18 4103 1375 1095 8453 154 1687 418
19 8620 2902 2535 7665 217 19 335
20 785 261 144 7500 138 260 120
21 6243 2152 1982 6771 47 0 150
22 15438 5980 4821 7685 1710 1035 1172
23 1037 340 298 5625 12 55 38
24 182 61 40 5000 11 915 321
25 2000 714 598 5000 56 3252 470
26 15726 5341 4988 6986 406 2188 2244
27 6924 2308 2092 7697 47 223 206
28 6487 2194 2098 10090 48 0 214
29 383 137 109 7500 38 784 197
transport/CIVE2355CourseWorkPartB_Task4.pdf

Assignment 2
J.Y.T.Wang
24/03/14
7
Assignment 2
letterbox
Please note:
your handwriting is
clearly legible.
2. Assignment 2 will count 15% towards your final grade.

Task 4 - Road Pricing (10% of Assignment 2)
A section of a highway has the following characteristics:
60
120
q
v ⎛ ⎞= −⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
where v is the speed (mph) and q is the stream flow (veh/hr).
Further,
200
2.5 3p
v
⎛ ⎞= +⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠

where p is the motorists' cost (cents/mile) and
D
p
= ×3 8 10
4
.
where D is the demand (vehicles/hour).
(a) Plot the motorist and marginal cost curves and the demand
curve.
(b) Determine the optimum flow.
(c) Determine the toll that should be charged to limit the flow to
the
optimal flow.
Hint
( ) TC q pq= dTC dpp q

dq dq
= +
General rule in differentiation:
( )
( ) ( )1
b
bda f q df q
ab f q
dq dq
−⎡ ⎤ ⎣ ⎦ ⎡ ⎤ = ⎣ ⎦
transport/CIVE2355Task3_Templates(1).pdf

Assignment 2 Task 3.1 Template
From Zone 1
From Zone 2

2
6
3
4
51 52
53 54 55
56
57 58 59
1
5
2
6

3
4
51 52
53 54 55
56
57 58 59
1
5
2
6
3
4

51 52
53 54 55
56
57 58 59
From Zone 4

53 54 55
56
57 58 59
1
5
2
6
3
4
51 52
53 54 55
56

57 58 59
1
5
2
6
3
4
51 52
53 54 55
56
57 58 59

1
5
2
6
3
4
51 52
53 54 55

56
57 58 59
transport/HORIZON.xls
Sheet: Sheet1
Sheet: Sheet2
Sheet: Sheet3
Sheet: Sheet4
Sheet: Sheet5
Sheet: Sheet6
Sheet: Sheet7
Sheet: Sheet8
Sheet: Sheet9
Sheet: Sheet10
Sheet: Sheet11
Sheet: Sheet12
Sheet: Sheet13
Sheet: Sheet14
Sheet: Sheet15
Sheet: Sheet16

HORIZON YEAR LAND USE AND TRAVEL DATA
Zone No
Population
Labour Force
Cars Owned
Income
Comm Emp
Man Empl
Other Emp
transport/n-values(1).pdf
CIVE 2355 Assignment 2 Task 3 n-value Allocations
1
Task 3.2 Task 3.3
Shopping trips Work trips
1 Abdulrahman, Almondir 1.91 0.98
2 Al Obaidly, Faisal 1.88 0.92
3 Albaldawi, Kezar 1.98 1.04

4 Almond, Benjamin A. 2.01 0.90
5 Alrashed, Sulaiman M. 2.08 0.94
6 Amoako, Ebenezer 2.06 1.11
7 Barrenechea, Juan Antonio 1.92 0.99
8 Bellas, Thomas J. 2.15 0.91
9 Blagbrough, Chloe L. 2.05 1.04
10 Bohn, Shane M. 2.01 1.05
11 Boyd, David P. 2.02 0.96
12 Brzyszczyk, Sebastian A. 2.06 0.89
13 Calero Moraga, MarÃ-a 2.01 1.11
14 Campollo Canduela, Alfonso 2.15 1.07
15 Chew, Maeva H. 2.11 0.90

16 Ciaramella Moita, Giuseppe 2.04 1.02
17 Ciniewicz, Liam F. 2.02 0.86
18 Conreen, George A. 2.10 1.13
19 D'Souza, Olivia P. 1.99 1.00
20 Danou, Maria 1.91 1.05
21 Georgallidou, Christiana 2.02 1.01
22 Gilmore, Daniel M. 2.11 1.02
23 Grebosz, Agnieszka 1.92 1.08
24 Howells, Imogen G. 2.10 1.09
25 Lee, Chun W. 1.91 1.14
26 Lee, Jiong C. 2.03 1.08
27 Liu, Laurence C. 1.97 1.13
28 Mantovani Cravo GuimarÃ£es, Marcelo 2.03 0.93

n-valueStudent Name Signature
CIVE 2355 Assignment 2 Task 3 n-value Allocations
2
Task 3.2 Task 3.3
Shopping trips Work trips
n-valueStudent Name Signature
29 Martinelli, Darren V. 2.14 0.98
30 Mason, Michael J. 2.07 0.86
31 Massey, George R. 2.11 1.10
32 McNeilis, David 1.96 0.95
33 Middleton, Kimberley J. 1.90 0.91
34 Naran, Ronak H. 2.11 0.86

35 Nicolaou, Andreas 1.88 0.87
36 Pereira Bandeira, Talyson 1.87 1.13
37 Pratt, Christopher J. 1.86 1.14
38 Qadri, Ayoub M. 2.04 0.90
39 Qui, Ming Sen Henry 1.89 1.08
40 Raithatha, Nikita 2.13 1.04
41 Ridge, Chelsea P. 2.07 1.08
42 Roberts, Matthew A. 1.95 1.15
43 Rodaway, Katie 2.09 0.95
44 Romualdo CorrÃªa, JoÃ£o Carlos 1.88 1.09
45 Smith, James T. 2.09 1.07
46 Sykes, Jason D. 1.96 1.01

47 Tang, Soloman 2.13 0.96
48 Thorakhail, Samiullah 2.14 1.11
49 Vasilatou, Varvara 2.06 1.05
50 Xue, Yihang 1.87 0.95
n-values
transport/task 1.pdf
Coursework
J.Y.T.Wang
3/10/2014
1
Assignment 2

letterbox
Please note:
your handwriting is
clearly legible.
2. This assignment will count 15% towards your final grade.
Task 1 - Traffic Flow Theory (30%)
This task requires two students to work as partners to collect
traffic flow data. The
data collected should be shared between them. Each student is
required to submit
his/her own report on this task.
Task 1.1 Data collection
Two students will work together on this task to collect the

following
information for a selected section of a roadway:
(i) time of each vehicle entering the selected section
(ii) time of each vehicle exiting the selected section
The length of time period has to be long enough to capture at
least 30
vehicles entering and leaving the selected section.
Task 1.2 Data analysis
(i) present the trajectories of the observed traffic in a time-
space
diagram
(ii) calculate the average flow (veh/h), speed (km/h) and density
(veh/km) in the time-space window
(iii) calculate the individual headways and average headways at
the
entrance and exit of the selected section
(iv) present the observed distribution of flow per time interval

at the
entrance to the road section in a histogram
(v) present the observed distribution of headways at the
entrance to
the road section in a histogram
Your report should include the following information:
(a) You and your partner's names
(b) A schematic drawing of the selected road section, showing
the location and
road layout (including 100m before and after the section)
(c) A description of your data collection method
(d) Data analysis, results and discussion of any observations
you might have made

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