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Beyond the Hype:
the Real Promise of AI
Kaimar Karu, MindBridge
@kaimarkaru
Agenda
1. Our Robot Overlords
2. Types and Sub-Types of AI
3. Machine Learning and Deep Learning
4. AI as an Existential Threat
5. AI, Philosophy, and Ethics
6. The AI race
7. The promise of AI in ITSM
»
Presenter: Kaimar Karu
Teaching and Professional Training
Project Management
IT Service Management
Appreciating good beer
Software Development
IT Operations and Support
»
itSMF
Our Robot OverlordsAI
@kaimarkaru
Everything is going according to plan #1AI
@kaimarkaru
I'm sorry, Dave. I'm
afraid I can't do that.
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
Everything is going according to plan #2AI
@kaimarkaru
„More human than
human“ is our motto.
Blade Runner (1982)
Everything is going according to plan #3AI
@kaimarkaru
I'll be back!
The Terminator (1984)
Everything is going according to plan #4AI
@kaimarkaru
The mind is a terrible
thing to waste - don't
make me waste yours.
Class of 1999 (1990)
Everything is going according to plan #5AI
@kaimarkaru
Never send a human to
do a machine’s job.
The Matrix (1999)
Everything is going according to plan #6AI
@kaimarkaru
I'm becoming much
more than they
programmed.
I'm excited!
Her (2013)
Artificial Intelligence, Machine & Deep Learning
AI ML DL
The capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior.
The capability to learn (without explicit programming) by
analyzing data using statistical methods and techniques.
Unsupervised learning capabilities
inspired by information processing
in biological nervous systems.
@kaimarkaru
AI
The (ancient) history of Artificial Intelligence
The Turing Test Machine or human?1950
Dartmouth Workshop „Artificial Intelligence“1956
1st AI Winter Machine Translation1960s
2nd AI Winter Limited domain language1970s
3rd AI Winter Non-extending expert systems1980s
The Chinese Room „AI is contradiction in terms“1984
@kaimarkaru
AI
Three types of Artificial Intelligence
NARROW AI (ANI)
GENERAL AI (AGI)
SUPER AI (ASI)
Multi-domain application
Single-domain application
Smarter than humans
AI
»
»
»
@kaimarkaru
What does it mean to think? To be intelligent?AI
@kaimarkaru
Is the brain like a computer?
Should the computer operate like a brain?
Human Nervous SystemAI
@kaimarkaruhttps://twitter.com/fredwumd/status/1007737117131399168
Spinal cord»
Enteric nervous system»
Nerves»
Brain»
Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)AI
@kaimarkaru
Terrifying promises,
mundane reality.
„Every time we figure out a piece of it, it stops being magical;
we say, ‘Oh, that's just a computation.’“ (Rodney Brooks)
Artificial Intelligence (-ish) in our daily lives
@kaimarkaru
AI
WEB
SEARCH
MAPS AND
NAVIGATION
TICKET
PRICING
SONG
RECOGNITION
CHATBOTS AND
AUTO-RESPONSES
SPORTS EVENTS
COVERAGE
FOOTBALL
GAME ANALYSIS
CUCUMBER
SORTER
Cucumber sorterAI
@kaimarkaru
Machine Learning styles
SUPERVISED
LEARNING
UNSUPERVISED
LEARNING
REINFORCEMENT
LEARNING
Finding patterns in data.
Do you have labelled data?
Achieving rewards.
ML
»
»
»
@kaimarkaru
Deep Learning models
MULTILAYER
NEURAL NETWORKS
CONVOLUTIONAL
NEURAL NETWORKS
RECURRENT
NEURAL NETWORKS
Work well with data that has a spatial
relationship (e.g. image recognition).
Work well with prediction problems for
labelled or classified inputs
(e.g. structured datasets).
Work well with sequence prediction
problems (e.g. natural language
processing).
DL
»
»
»
@kaimarkaru
Neural Networks in Deep LearningDL
@kaimarkaru
„I believe Deep Learning is our best shot at progress towards real AI.“
(Andrew Ng)
„Deep Learning“, Adam Gibson, Josh Patterson, O'Reilly Media 2017
Applying DL: Natural Language Processing
Speech recognition»
@kaimarkaru
DL
Machine translation»
Sentiment analysis»
Entity extraction»
Information extraction»
Natural language generation»
Summarisation»
Question answering»
Challenges and risks with Deep LearningDL
@kaimarkaru
CONTEXT
UNAWARENESS
LACK OF
DATA
LACK OF
LABELLED DATA
HIGH RELIANCE ON
TRAINING DATA
PROCESSING POWER
REQUIREMENTS
BLACK BOX
ALGORITHMS
LACK OF
FLEXIBILITY
BUTTERFLY
EFFECT
Immediate Artificial Intelligence related risks
Fake news (both speed and spread)»
@kaimarkaru
AI
Impact on financial institutions (e.g. 2010 Flash Crash)»
Cyber attacks (on nations)»
Social media related anxiety (curated feeds)»
Surveillance (privacy)»
Spear phishing»
‘AI race’»
Fake audio and fake video»
Fake videosAI
@kaimarkaru
Predictions for AGIAI
@kaimarkaru
Median optimistic year 10% likelihood 2022
Median realistic year 50% likelihood 2040
Median pessimistic year 90% likelihood 2075
42% of respondents 2030
25% of respondents 2050
20% of respondents 2100
10% of respondents After 2100
2% of respondents Never
AI experts’ opinion
Vincent C. Müller and
Nick Bostrom, 2013
AGI conference participants
James Barrat, 2013
Existential ThreatAI
@kaimarkaru
Philosophical aspectsAI
@kaimarkaru
CONSCIOUSNESS FREE WILL INTENTIONALITY BELIEF
Ethical challenges: bias correctionAI
@kaimarkaru
BIASED DATA?»
BIASED ALGORITHM?»
BIASED ESTIMATOR?»
Ethical challenges: rules-based decision-makingAI
@kaimarkaru
TRANSPARENCY»
EXPLAINABILITY»
INTENTIONALITY»
Ethical challenges: empathyAI
@kaimarkaru
POLICE SOLDIERJUDGE SUPPORTTHERAPIST
Challenges: legislation
GDPR Recital 71:
In order to ensure fair and transparent processing in respect of the data subject, taking into account the specific
circumstances and context in which the personal data are processed, the controller should use appropriate
mathematical or statistical procedures for the profiling, implement technical and organisational measures
appropriate to ensure, in particular, that factors which result in inaccuracies in personal data are corrected and the
risk of errors is minimised, secure personal data in a manner that takes account of the potential risks involved for
the interests and rights of the data subject, and prevent, inter alia, discriminatory effects on natural persons on the
basis of racial or ethnic origin, political opinion, religion or beliefs, trade union membership, genetic or health
status or sexual orientation, or processing that results in measures having such an effect.
GDPR Article 22:
The data subject shall have the right not to be subject to a decision based solely on automated processing,
including profiling, which produces legal effects concerning him or her or similarly significantly affects him or her.
AI
@kaimarkaru
Challenges: ‘AI race’ and national policiesAI
@kaimarkaru
Challenges and opportunities: normative rulesAI
@kaimarkaru
Benefits of AI (or, well, ML) for ITSMAI
@kaimarkaru
INCREASED
PRODUCTIVITY
IMPROVED
DECISION-MAKING
IMPROVED
COMMUNICATION
IMPROVED RISK
MANAGEMENT
INCREASED
SPEED
REDUCED
COSTS
IMPROVED
ANALYTICS
IMPROVED
KNOWLEDGE MGMT
Which then gives hope forAI
@kaimarkaru
ENTERPRISE
SERVICE MANAGEMENT
IMPROVED
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
IMPROVED
EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION
ITSM toolingAI
@kaimarkaru
Ask your ITSM tool vendor
about their ML roadmap!
The biggest challenge when leveraging AIAI
@kaimarkaru
Ask the right questions.
Kaimar Karu: Beyond the Hype - the Real Promise of AI

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Kaimar Karu: Beyond the Hype - the Real Promise of AI

  • 1. Beyond the Hype: the Real Promise of AI Kaimar Karu, MindBridge @kaimarkaru
  • 2. Agenda 1. Our Robot Overlords 2. Types and Sub-Types of AI 3. Machine Learning and Deep Learning 4. AI as an Existential Threat 5. AI, Philosophy, and Ethics 6. The AI race 7. The promise of AI in ITSM »
  • 3. Presenter: Kaimar Karu Teaching and Professional Training Project Management IT Service Management Appreciating good beer Software Development IT Operations and Support » itSMF
  • 5. Everything is going according to plan #1AI @kaimarkaru I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that. 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
  • 6. Everything is going according to plan #2AI @kaimarkaru „More human than human“ is our motto. Blade Runner (1982)
  • 7. Everything is going according to plan #3AI @kaimarkaru I'll be back! The Terminator (1984)
  • 8. Everything is going according to plan #4AI @kaimarkaru The mind is a terrible thing to waste - don't make me waste yours. Class of 1999 (1990)
  • 9. Everything is going according to plan #5AI @kaimarkaru Never send a human to do a machine’s job. The Matrix (1999)
  • 10. Everything is going according to plan #6AI @kaimarkaru I'm becoming much more than they programmed. I'm excited! Her (2013)
  • 11. Artificial Intelligence, Machine & Deep Learning AI ML DL The capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior. The capability to learn (without explicit programming) by analyzing data using statistical methods and techniques. Unsupervised learning capabilities inspired by information processing in biological nervous systems. @kaimarkaru AI
  • 12. The (ancient) history of Artificial Intelligence The Turing Test Machine or human?1950 Dartmouth Workshop „Artificial Intelligence“1956 1st AI Winter Machine Translation1960s 2nd AI Winter Limited domain language1970s 3rd AI Winter Non-extending expert systems1980s The Chinese Room „AI is contradiction in terms“1984 @kaimarkaru AI
  • 13. Three types of Artificial Intelligence NARROW AI (ANI) GENERAL AI (AGI) SUPER AI (ASI) Multi-domain application Single-domain application Smarter than humans AI » » » @kaimarkaru
  • 14. What does it mean to think? To be intelligent?AI @kaimarkaru Is the brain like a computer? Should the computer operate like a brain?
  • 16. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)AI @kaimarkaru Terrifying promises, mundane reality. „Every time we figure out a piece of it, it stops being magical; we say, ‘Oh, that's just a computation.’“ (Rodney Brooks)
  • 17. Artificial Intelligence (-ish) in our daily lives @kaimarkaru AI WEB SEARCH MAPS AND NAVIGATION TICKET PRICING SONG RECOGNITION CHATBOTS AND AUTO-RESPONSES SPORTS EVENTS COVERAGE FOOTBALL GAME ANALYSIS CUCUMBER SORTER
  • 19. Machine Learning styles SUPERVISED LEARNING UNSUPERVISED LEARNING REINFORCEMENT LEARNING Finding patterns in data. Do you have labelled data? Achieving rewards. ML » » » @kaimarkaru
  • 20. Deep Learning models MULTILAYER NEURAL NETWORKS CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS Work well with data that has a spatial relationship (e.g. image recognition). Work well with prediction problems for labelled or classified inputs (e.g. structured datasets). Work well with sequence prediction problems (e.g. natural language processing). DL » » » @kaimarkaru
  • 21. Neural Networks in Deep LearningDL @kaimarkaru „I believe Deep Learning is our best shot at progress towards real AI.“ (Andrew Ng) „Deep Learning“, Adam Gibson, Josh Patterson, O'Reilly Media 2017
  • 22. Applying DL: Natural Language Processing Speech recognition» @kaimarkaru DL Machine translation» Sentiment analysis» Entity extraction» Information extraction» Natural language generation» Summarisation» Question answering»
  • 23. Challenges and risks with Deep LearningDL @kaimarkaru CONTEXT UNAWARENESS LACK OF DATA LACK OF LABELLED DATA HIGH RELIANCE ON TRAINING DATA PROCESSING POWER REQUIREMENTS BLACK BOX ALGORITHMS LACK OF FLEXIBILITY BUTTERFLY EFFECT
  • 24. Immediate Artificial Intelligence related risks Fake news (both speed and spread)» @kaimarkaru AI Impact on financial institutions (e.g. 2010 Flash Crash)» Cyber attacks (on nations)» Social media related anxiety (curated feeds)» Surveillance (privacy)» Spear phishing» ‘AI race’» Fake audio and fake video»
  • 26. Predictions for AGIAI @kaimarkaru Median optimistic year 10% likelihood 2022 Median realistic year 50% likelihood 2040 Median pessimistic year 90% likelihood 2075 42% of respondents 2030 25% of respondents 2050 20% of respondents 2100 10% of respondents After 2100 2% of respondents Never AI experts’ opinion Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom, 2013 AGI conference participants James Barrat, 2013
  • 29. Ethical challenges: bias correctionAI @kaimarkaru BIASED DATA?» BIASED ALGORITHM?» BIASED ESTIMATOR?»
  • 30. Ethical challenges: rules-based decision-makingAI @kaimarkaru TRANSPARENCY» EXPLAINABILITY» INTENTIONALITY»
  • 31. Ethical challenges: empathyAI @kaimarkaru POLICE SOLDIERJUDGE SUPPORTTHERAPIST
  • 32. Challenges: legislation GDPR Recital 71: In order to ensure fair and transparent processing in respect of the data subject, taking into account the specific circumstances and context in which the personal data are processed, the controller should use appropriate mathematical or statistical procedures for the profiling, implement technical and organisational measures appropriate to ensure, in particular, that factors which result in inaccuracies in personal data are corrected and the risk of errors is minimised, secure personal data in a manner that takes account of the potential risks involved for the interests and rights of the data subject, and prevent, inter alia, discriminatory effects on natural persons on the basis of racial or ethnic origin, political opinion, religion or beliefs, trade union membership, genetic or health status or sexual orientation, or processing that results in measures having such an effect. GDPR Article 22: The data subject shall have the right not to be subject to a decision based solely on automated processing, including profiling, which produces legal effects concerning him or her or similarly significantly affects him or her. AI @kaimarkaru
  • 33. Challenges: ‘AI race’ and national policiesAI @kaimarkaru
  • 34. Challenges and opportunities: normative rulesAI @kaimarkaru
  • 35. Benefits of AI (or, well, ML) for ITSMAI @kaimarkaru INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVED DECISION-MAKING IMPROVED COMMUNICATION IMPROVED RISK MANAGEMENT INCREASED SPEED REDUCED COSTS IMPROVED ANALYTICS IMPROVED KNOWLEDGE MGMT
  • 36. Which then gives hope forAI @kaimarkaru ENTERPRISE SERVICE MANAGEMENT IMPROVED CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE IMPROVED EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION
  • 37. ITSM toolingAI @kaimarkaru Ask your ITSM tool vendor about their ML roadmap!
  • 38. The biggest challenge when leveraging AIAI @kaimarkaru Ask the right questions.

Editor's Notes

  1. Convolutional Neural Networks: e.g. Xray scans for tumors Recurrent Neural Networks: e.g. Gmail text prediction