1. Political Barometer Survey: Post-Presidential Debate Poll
Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya
Release Date: 13th February 2013
© 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and
may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2. Contents
Performance of the presidential candidates in the debate
 Perceived best performer on specific
 Perceived overall best performer
Influence of the debate performance on vote-choice
 Support level for the various presidential candidates
amongst those who watched or listened to the debate
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3. Study Caveats
 Survey findings limited to survey respondents who
watched/listened and agreed to be interviewed.
 Debate conducted in English thus excluding a large proportion of
audiences
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4. Methodology
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5. Survey Methodology
Dates of polling 12th February 2013
1,074 “registered” voters
Sample Size 135 previously “undecided” voters
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
Sampling methodology
(proportionate to population size)
“Claimed registered voters intending to vote
Universe who watched or listened to the presidential
debate” living in urban and rural areas in Kenya
Data collection CATI – Computer Aided Telephonic Interviewing
methodology
Sampling error Sample size of 1,074
+/-2.99 with a 95% confidence level
Poll funding
Self Financed
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A total of 43 out 47 counties sampled. Excludes Isiolo, Marsabit, Tana River, Samburu

6. Sample distribution by Region
Ipsos Sample (exposed to debate)
Voter register Sample contacted
Number of
Province Voters PPS Sample % Province Sample % Variance
Central 2,190,477 15% 207 15% Central 183 17% 2%
Coast 1,164,083 8% 111 8% Coast 75 7% -1%
Eastern 2,092,883 15% 207 15% Eastern 150 14% -1%
N.Eastern 347,457 2% 28 2% N. Eastern 21 2% 0%
Nairobi 1,778,903 12% 166 12% Nairobi 140 13% 1%
Nyanza 1,954,756 14% 193 14% Nyanza 150 14% 0%
Rift Valley 3,373,853 24% 332 24% Rift Valley 258 24% 1%
Western 1,434,987 10% 138 10% Western 97 9% -1%
Total 14,337,399 100% 1,382 100% 1,074 100%
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7. Respondent
Demographic profiles
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8. Demographic Profile
Religion
Nairobi 12%
Catholic 26%
Coast 8%
Region
Nyanza 14% Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… 36%
Rift Valley 24% Evangelical Protestant 14%
North Eastern 2%
Eastern 15% Other Christian 14%
Central 15% Muslim 6%
Western 10%
Others 3%
Female 51%
Gender
Male 49%
No formal school 2%
18 - 24 years 19% Some primary education 7%
25 - 29 years 22%
Age 30 - 34 years
Primary education completed 13%
19%
35 - 40 years 18% Some secondary education 11%
41 - 44 years 4% Secondary education completed 32%
45+ years 18%
Some middle level college (not… 8%
Completed mid level college… 15%
Setting Some University education 4%
Urban 38%
Rural 62% University education completed 5%
Nationality Post Graduate (Masters, MBA,… 1%
Kenyans 100%
Base: All Respondents (n=1,074) 8

9. Mode of Accessing the
Presidential Debate
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10. “Did you listen on radio, or watch on TV?”
(By Total)
TV, 66%
Radio, 34%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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11. Likeability of debate
questions/topics
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12. “Do you think the questions that were asked were good?”
(By Total)
NO, 2%
YES, 97%
Not Sure,
1%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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13. Preferred Presidential
Candidate
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14. “Who are you going to vote for as the fourth president of Kenya?” (By Total)
50%
40%
40%
33%
30%
20%
10%
7% 7% 6%
4%
2%
0%
Uhuru Raila Peter Musalia Martha UndecidedRefused to
Kenyatta Odinga Kenneth Mudavadi Karua answer
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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15. Rating of Candidates on
Issues covered
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16. “Based on the debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as the
best with regard to the issue of tribalism?” (By Total)
50% Tribalism
40%
30%
23% 22% 22%
20%
12%
10%
4% 5%
3% 3% 2% 3%
1%
0%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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17. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regards the issue of Tribalism?” (By Total)
100%
90% Tribalism
80%
70%
60% 50%
50% 45%
40%
30% 20%
19%
20% 10% 10%
10% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 6% 5% 2% 5%
1%
5% 3% 5% 1%
0%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 10% 10%
Abduba Dida 2% 5%
Musalia Mudavadi 3% 2%
Paul Mwite 2% 5%
Peter Kenneth 19% 20%
James Ole Kiyapi 2% 1%
Raila Odinga 50% 5%
Uhuru Kenyatta 4% 45%
None 2% 3%
Don’t know 6% 5%
No response 0% 1%
Base: Raila supporters (356) ; Uhuru supporters (427)
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18. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of education?” (By Total)
Education
50%
40%
30%
20% 18%
16%
14% 13%
11%
10% 9%
7%
4% 3%
1% 2%
0%
James Uhuru Peter Raila Martha Mohamed Musalia Paul Mwite None Don’t know No
Ole Kiyapi Kenyatta Kenneth Odinga Karua Abduba Mudavadi response
Dida
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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19. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of education?” (By Total)
100% Education
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% 30%
28%
30%
18%
20% 12% 14%16% 13%
8% 10% 8% 5% 5% 10%
10% 5% 4%
1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 12% 8%
Mohamed Abduba Dida 8% 5%
Musalia Mudavadi 1% 5%
Paul Mwite 3% 3%
Peter Kenneth 14% 13%
Prof. James Ole Kiyapi 16% 18%
Raila Odinga 28% 4%
Uhuru Kenyatta 5% 30%
None 1% 1%
Don’t know 10% 10%
No response 1% 2%
Base: Raila supporters (356) ; Uhuru supporters (427)
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20. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of security and crime?” (By Total)
Security and Crime
50%
40%
30%
22% 21%
20%
14%
11%
10% 9% 8%
6%
3% 3% 3%
1%
0%
Uhuru Raila Peter Martha Paul Mwite Musalia Abduba James Ole None No Don’t know
Kenyatta Odinga Kenneth Karua Mudavadi Dida Kiyapi response
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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21. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regards the issue of Security and Crime?” (By Total)
100%
90% Security & crime
80%
70%
60%
50% 42% 40%
40%
30%
20% 14%
10% 8% 11% 7% 3% 7% 11% 9% 8% 7%
10% 2% 5% 2% 1% 3% 5% 2% 1% 1%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 10% 11%
Mohamed Abduba Dida 2% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 5% 5%
Paul Mwite 8% 9%
Peter Kenneth 11% 14%
Prof. James Ole Kiyapi 2% 2%
Raila Odinga 42% 8%
Uhuru Kenyatta 7% 40%
None 3% 1%
Don’t know 7% 7%
No response 1% 1%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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22. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of health?” (By Total)
Health
50%
40%
30% 27%
20% 17%
15%
13%
10% 8%
5%
3% 3% 3% 3%
1%
0%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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23. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of health?” (By Total)
100%
Health
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% 32% 30%
30% 27%
22%
20% 12% 12% 12% 12%
10% 4% 3% 2% 6%
2% 3% 1% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 1% 1%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 22% 27%
Mohamed Abduba Dida 4% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 3% 4%
Paul Mwite 2% 4%
Peter Kenneth 12% 12%
Prof. James Ole Kiyapi 2% 2%
Raila Odinga 32% 4%
Uhuru Kenyatta 6% 30%
None 3% 1%
Don’t know 12% 12%
No response 1% 1%
Base: Raila supporters (356) ; Uhuru supporters (427) 23

24. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of ICC?” (By Total)
ICC Issue
50%
40%
30% 25%
20% 17%
14% 13%
11%
10% 7%
4% 4%
2% 2% 1%
0%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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25. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of ICC?” (By Total)
100%
90%
ICC Issue
80%
70%
60%
50%
36% 38%
40%
30% 21%
20% 14% 13% 13% 10% 7% 8%
10% 4% 1% 6% 4% 1% 6%
1% 3% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 14% 10%
Mohamed Abduba Dida 4% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 1% 2%
Paul Mwite 6% 21%
Peter Kenneth 4% 7%
Prof. James Ole Kiyapi 1% 2%
Raila Odinga 36% 5%
Uhuru Kenyatta 13% 38%
None 6% 3%
Don’t know 13% 8%
No response 1% 1%
Base: Raila supporters (356) ; Uhuru supporters (427) 25

26. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of party politics?” (By Total)
Party Politics
50%
40%
30%
25% 24%
20%
13%
10% 7%
5% 5%
3% 3%
0%
Raila Uhuru Peter Martha Musalia Paul Mwite Mohamed Prof.
Odinga Kenyatta Kenneth Karua Mudavadi Abduba James Ole
Dida Kiyapi
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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27. “Based on that debate, whose policies and plans do you think came out as
the best with regard to the issue of party politics?” (By Total)
100%
90% Party politics
80%
70%
60%
50%
36% 38%
40%
30% 21%
20% 14% 13% 13% 10% 7% 8%
10% 4% 1% 6% 4% 1% 6%
1% 3% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1%
0%
Raila Odinga Supporters Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters
Martha Karua 14% 10%
Mohamed Abduba Dida 4% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 1% 2%
Paul Mwite 6% 21%
Peter Kenneth 4% 7%
Prof. James Ole Kiyapi 1% 2%
Raila Odinga 36% 5%
Uhuru Kenyatta 13% 38%
None 6% 3%
Don’t know 13% 8%
No response 1% 1%
Base: Raila supporters (356) ; Uhuru supporters (427) 27

28. Preferred Presidential
Candidate
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29. Voter intentions/debate performance numerical gap
Analysis shows difference/gap between
50% a) Preferred presidential candidate
b) Perceived best debate performer
40%
30%
20%
10% 8%
6%
4%
2% 1%
0%
0%
Uhuru Raila Kenneth Mudavadi Karua Dida Muite Kipayi
-3%
-10%
-10%
-20%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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30. Perceived overall best
performing candidate
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31. “Overall, which candidate performed the best?” (By Total)
50%
40% 37%
30%
23%
20%
15%
10% 8%
4% 4%
2% 1% 2% 1% 2%
0%
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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32. Change of preference on
the debate
32

33. “Did the debate on Monday evening change your mind on whom you will
vote for as president?” (By Total)
NO
Not Sure, 2%
YES
Base: All Respondents: (n = 1,074)
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34. Presidential support
Support before changing mind Support after changing mind
50.0%
39.8%
40.0%
36.9%
35.3%
33.1%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0% 7.9% 7.3% 7.3%
6.2%
4.7% 5.1% 5.8%
2.8% 2.2% 3.5%
0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
0.0%
Martha Mohamed Musalia Paul Mwite Peter Prof. James Raila Odinga Uhuru Undecided None RTA
Karua Abduba Dida Mudavadi Kenneth Ole Kiyapi Kenyatta
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35. Undecided
Voters
Sample
35

36. “Did the debate on Monday evening change your mind on whom you will
vote for as president?” (By undecided voters only)
YES
NO
Undecided respondents Who they going to vote for as
the fourth president of Kenya?
Uhuru Kenyatta 44%
Peter Kenneth 17%
Raila Odinga 16%
Musalia Mudavadi 6%
Martha Karua 4%
Undecided / 6%
RTA 7%
Total Base (those who changed their mind) 104
Base: Undecided voters only: (n = 135) 36

37. Questions?
Comments?
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38. For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Social Political Consultant
twolf@wananchi.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosSynovateKe
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