Who will win the next election? Political journalists and scientist will be eager to tell you, but usually they're either telling you the obvious, or proposing their personal political preferences as a neutral expectation. How can we tell the difference? There's a lot of free data (sadly not so much “open data”) out there about elections, going from general information about past and future elections, to detailed results per election constituency and polling data for upcoming results. Once you know where to look for the information, it's no so difficult to distill answers to the key questions around an upcoming question. Who will be the largest party in parliament? Who won't meet the threshold? Political journalists and scientists often give you the wrong answer, because they don't do the maths. This talk will tell you how you can do it right.

1. How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey
Business Out of Political Journalism and Science
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2. Recommended Resources
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Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guide
http://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)
http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electograph
http://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Polls
http://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometeret
http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/

3. Why Bother?
3
https://xkcd.com/386/

4. Why Bother?
Actually:
Lots of people are wrong,
not only on the internet,
but also on television, radio and in the
newspapers…
4
https://xkcd.com/386/

5. Disclaimer
5
I'm an engineer, not a statistician
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/

6. Disclaimer
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I'm an engineer, not a statistician
●
Terminology is most certainly wrong
●
I may be doing some “monkey
business” too…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/

7. 7
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Define “Monkey Business”

8. 8
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Common Pitfalls
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Global margins of error
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Small differences blown out of proportions
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Scores around thresholds
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Seat distributions without margins of error
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Majority in votes or seats?
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Opinion poll outliers

9. Example
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Client: Vårt Land
Pollster: Norstat
Fieldwork: 23–29 March 2015
Published: 1 April 2015
Sample size: 961 respondents
Margin of error: N/A
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

10. Above or Below the Threshold?
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Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ P(V < 4 %) = 61 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ P(SV < 4 %) = 98.7 %
MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ P(MDG ≥ 4 %) = 71 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

11. Who's Larger?
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MDG: 4.3 %
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ P(MDG > V) ≈ 71 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ P(MDG > SV) ≈ 97 %
⇒ P(V > SV) ≈ 93 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

12. Who's Larger – in Seats?
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MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 10 seats
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 9 seats
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 0 – 2 seats
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

13. Distribution of Seats
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Ap: 41.7 % 71 – 82 seats⇒
H: 22.3 % 35 – 46 seats⇒
Frp: 10.0 % 15 – 22 seats⇒
KrF: 6.5 % 9 – 15 seats⇒
Sp: 5.9 % 8 – 14 seats⇒
MDG: 4.3 % 1 – 10 seats⇒
V: 3.8 % 1 – 9 seats⇒
SV: 2.6 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
Rødt: 1.8 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

14. 14
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jdhancock/4816476075/
Free Data Sources

15. Upcoming and Past Elections
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

16. Upcoming and Past Elections
IFES Election Guide
http://www.electionguide.org/
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19

20. 20

21. Upcoming and Past Elections
European Election Database (EED)
http://www.nsd.uib.no/
european_election_database/
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

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25. 25

26. 26

27. Opinion Poll Results
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Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

28. 28

29. Opinion Poll Results
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Electograph
http://www.electograph.com/

30. Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
TV2 Partibarometeret
http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarom
eteret/#/
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31. 31

32. 32

33. 33

34. Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
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Poll of Polls
http://www.pollofpolls.no/

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41. 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. Election Results Forecasts
Electoral Calculus
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
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45. Election Results Forecasts
Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/
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46. 46
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Introducing “SAPoR”

47. Why SAPoR?
47
●
More fun than using R
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Seat distributions
https://github.com/filipvanlaenen/sapor
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/

48. Recommended Resources
48
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guide
http://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)
http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electograph
http://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Polls
http://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometeret
http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/