Roxana Bojariu

1. Climate change projections
Dr. Roxana Bojariu
Lead Author in WG I of AR5
National Meteorological Administration (Bucharest, Romania)

2.  Climate models
 Climate scenarios
 CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC
 Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of
Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)
 CORDEX Programme
 Benefits and limitations of climate model results

3. Climate Models
From: NCPP Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling
August 12-16, 2013, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/
CMIP 5
e.g. CORDEX
e.g. hydrological &
agrometeorological
models

4. Climate scenarios
From: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/275097914_Changing_risks_in_changing_climate

5. CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC
From SPM

6. CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC
Extreme statistics continue to change.
From IPCC (2013)

7. Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional
Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)
Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of
the likelihood of changes.

8. Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional
Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)
Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of
the likelihood of changes.

9. Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of
the likelihood of changes.
Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of
Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)

10. Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of
the likelihood of changes.
Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of
Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)

11. CORDEX Programme
Changes in frequency of strong wind
episodes (> 13.4 m/s; in %) over the Black
Sea based on the ensemble mean of 4
regional climate models from EURO-
CORDEX in 2071-2100 vs. 1971-2000.
Spatial resolution is 12.5 km.
EURO-CORDEX domain

12. Benefits and limitations of climate model results
 Numerical experiments are the equivalents of lab experiments in physics.
 In the present modeling effort we start to look into more spatial and temporal scales of climate – some of them on
which regional process and extremes take place.
 Climate model results allow to make sound and informed decision by coupling climate information with impact and
socio economic knowledge.
On the other hand
 there are limitations in using model results due to problems in observation system which feed in models, model
representations of reality etc.
But
 we can get rid of a number of these limitations by advancing our knowledge.
However
 there will be always a level of uncertainty due to intrinsic chaotic nature of some processes taking place in the
climate system;
 we have to cope with a level of uncertainty in the mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Thank you!