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The World At A Watershed:   The Macroeconomic, Demographics, and Technology Landscape of the Next Decade   IDC Innovation Forum 2009, Milan John Gantz Chief Research Officer March 23, 2009
Agenda The Economic Implosion ICT Budget Fallout The Economy as Catalyst
An Economic Shock Source: IMF, Consensus Economics, Inc., EIU Worldwide GDP Forecast Interbank Lending Cranes in Dubai
50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD
50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD, IDC Historical Data
Impact on the CIO
ICT Budget Fallout
Where We Stand Source: IDC Q2, Q3 & Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Books WW IT Spending
The New ICT Geography 2009-2011 Aggregate Net New ICT* Spending ($B) Source: IDC Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book; *IT plus data services Emerging = 56% new opportunity, 28% of 2009 $
Opportunities Hot Public Sector SMB Enterprise Social Media Security Management Business Analytics IT Outsourcing & BPO SaaS Wi-Max Search & Discovery Storage Replication Cold Commodity Hardware Project Based Consulting Mobile Voice IT Training Finance & Accounting ERP Sales Force Automation Manufacturing SW DSL Large Enterprise IT Gantz Watch Virtualization Mgt SW Real Time Analytics IT Driven Sustainability IP Surveillance  Location Based Services Smart Grid Video Search Compliance Reputation Mgt SW Machine-to-Machine
An Economic Unknown ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Potential Impact of Stimulus Plans WW ICT Spending Growth  Source: Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book, IDC Estimates WW ICT Spending (B)  $250 Billion over 4 Years
The Economy as Catalyst
The Demographic Catalyst Percent Penetration in Emerging Markets, 2009 23% 44% 60% 67% 72% 84%
The Technology Catalyst WW Growth from 2008-2012 1.1X 1.9X 3.0X 3.6X 5.1X 8.4X Efficiency Resource Sharing Complexity Economy of Scale Off Premises
Artifacts of Tomorrow
Innovation During Recession
Innovation During Recession Percent of Fortune 500 Companies Incorporated During Recession Source: Gary Beach, CIO
Five Key Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Essential Guidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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John Gantz - The World at a Watershed

  • 1. The World At A Watershed: The Macroeconomic, Demographics, and Technology Landscape of the Next Decade IDC Innovation Forum 2009, Milan John Gantz Chief Research Officer March 23, 2009
  • 2. Agenda The Economic Implosion ICT Budget Fallout The Economy as Catalyst
  • 3. An Economic Shock Source: IMF, Consensus Economics, Inc., EIU Worldwide GDP Forecast Interbank Lending Cranes in Dubai
  • 4. 50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD
  • 5. 50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD, IDC Historical Data
  • 8. Where We Stand Source: IDC Q2, Q3 & Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Books WW IT Spending
  • 9. The New ICT Geography 2009-2011 Aggregate Net New ICT* Spending ($B) Source: IDC Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book; *IT plus data services Emerging = 56% new opportunity, 28% of 2009 $
  • 10. Opportunities Hot Public Sector SMB Enterprise Social Media Security Management Business Analytics IT Outsourcing & BPO SaaS Wi-Max Search & Discovery Storage Replication Cold Commodity Hardware Project Based Consulting Mobile Voice IT Training Finance & Accounting ERP Sales Force Automation Manufacturing SW DSL Large Enterprise IT Gantz Watch Virtualization Mgt SW Real Time Analytics IT Driven Sustainability IP Surveillance Location Based Services Smart Grid Video Search Compliance Reputation Mgt SW Machine-to-Machine
  • 11.
  • 12. The Potential Impact of Stimulus Plans WW ICT Spending Growth Source: Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book, IDC Estimates WW ICT Spending (B) $250 Billion over 4 Years
  • 13. The Economy as Catalyst
  • 14. The Demographic Catalyst Percent Penetration in Emerging Markets, 2009 23% 44% 60% 67% 72% 84%
  • 15. The Technology Catalyst WW Growth from 2008-2012 1.1X 1.9X 3.0X 3.6X 5.1X 8.4X Efficiency Resource Sharing Complexity Economy of Scale Off Premises
  • 18. Innovation During Recession Percent of Fortune 500 Companies Incorporated During Recession Source: Gary Beach, CIO
  • 19.
  • 20.