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Applied Geography 34 (2012) 519e524
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Applied Geography
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Commentary
Chinese drought, bread and the Arab Spring
Troy Sternberg*
School of Geography, Oxford University, South Parks Road,
Oxford, OX2 6HY, UK
Keywords:
Drought
China
Egypt
Bread
Standard precipitation index
Arab spring
Wheat
* Tel.: þ44 (0) 1865 285070; fax: þ44 (0) 1865 275
E-mail address: [email protected]
0143-6228/$ e see front matter � 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.02.004
a b s t r a c t
In 2011 winter drought in eastern China’s wheat-growing region
had significant implications beyond the
country’s borders. Potential crop failure due to drought led

China to buy wheat on the international
market and contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices; the
resultant price spikes had a serious
economic impact in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer,
where bread prices tripled. Quantifying
the 2011 drought in China’s wheat region with the Standard
Precipitation Index identified extreme
drought across the region that peaked in January 2011. Findings
document the spatial extent and severity
of the drought as the most serious on record and explain China’s
efforts to minimize the 2011 drought’s
domestic impact. The country’s mitigation efforts had
repercussions in Egypt where high food prices
were a contributory factor to civil unrest. Tracking the drought
e wheat price rise e protest trajectory
suggests the potential direct and indirect links between natural
hazards, food security and political
stability at local and global scales.
� 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Drought in China has been a serious disaster throughout the
country’s history and has been cited for its contributory impact
on
social unrest and wars in the last millennium (Bruins & Bu,
2006).
Identified as the hazard with the greatest global impact
(Keyantash
& Dracup, 2002), droughts are significant in China because of
the
number of people affected, economic losses and environmental
damage that result (Zhai & Feng, 2009). Historically vulnerable
to
drought, China’s agricultural regions experienced a serious
event

that climaxed in January 2011 (Wu et al., 2011; Yu, 2011). That
drought can have significant domestic impact is clear; the
possible
global consequence of China’s drought is a recent development
(Sternberg, 2011). This paper assesses the drought’s link to
global
wheat prices and revolution in Egypt to highlight how natural
hazards may affect food security and influence political
stability. It
broadens the scope of climate inquiry and suggests a potential
research agenda that examines hazard impact on socio-political
spheres.
The scenario encompasses the role of bread in Egypt, winter
wheat crop failure in China due to drought and the global wheat
market. It reflects the vulnerability of countries seeking food
security e in this case wheat e in their pursuit of stability and
how
climate hazards can reach a global scope. Egypt’s geography
and
population combine to create a dependency on imported wheat
885.
All rights reserved.
and a subsequent exposure to external commodity factors.
China’s
past self-sufficiency in wheat, weather monitoring and capital
reserves reduced the impact of climate variability on domestic
food
supplies. How both countries dealt with the perception of risk is
key e China’s awareness of drought’s domestic implications led
to
mitigation efforts whilst the Egyptian government failed to
grasp
the social repercussions of escalating bread prices.

Widespread drought across the Eurasian steppe in 2010e11 and
weather events elsewhere disrupted global wheat production,
resulting in shortages and price spikes (USDA 2011). In Egypt,
the
world’s largest wheat importer, government legitimacy and
social
stability were upset by protests focused on political discontent,
poverty and escalating bread prices (Johnstone & Mazo, 2011;
USDA
2011). Drought impact on food supply is well documented
(Antwi-
Agyei, Fraser, Dougill, Stringer, & Simelton, 2012); tracking its
influence in 2011 identifies how a poor harvest in one country
may
affect the price of wheat internationally and may have
contributed
to unrest in Egypt. By assessing drought scientifically with
meteo-
rological data and drought indices this paper assesses the
severity
of China’s 2011 drought and potential implications for global
food
security.
Social background
Egypt
The 2011 Egyptian protests were instigated by political and
socio-economic conditions in the country. As the world’s
attention
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T. Sternberg / Applied Geography 34 (2012) 519e524520
was focused on protests in Tahrir Square, political and socio-
economic motives were discussed while significant indirect cau-
ses of the Arab Spring received little mention. Important
economic
factors included the high cost of living, 40% of the population
in
poverty and increasing food prices (Nowaira, 2011). Bread
became
an expression of citizens’ dissatisfaction with the waving of
bread
becoming a symbol of protest. Local reports identified sporadic
bread shortages and 300% price increases. The Wall Street
Journal
headline on February 1st read ‘Non-Political Bread Riots Are
Breaking
Out In Egypt, Killing Three’; ten days later President Hosni
Mubarak
was gone from office (Lubin, 2011). The role of bread and
events
that affected wheat prices provide vital insight into processes
that
contributed to popular unrest in winter 2011.
Bread is the staple of the Egyptian diet, providing 33% of an
Egyptian’s daily caloric intake (FAO, 2006). It is particularly
important for poor residents as Egyptians spend 38% of their
income on food. Government subsidies fix the price of pita
bread at
0.05 Egyptian pounds (approximately $0.01 USD) for an
unlimited
supply (Trego, 2011). As a cornerstone of Egyptian domestic
policy

for decades bread subsidies have been used to maintain social
stability; the country spends 3% of gross domestic product on
wheat subsidies (Zawya 2011). History provides perspective on
the
importance of bread as the previous largest protests in Egypt
occurred in 1977 over its price. At the time attempts to
eliminate
wheat subsidies led to mass protests in Cairo that came to be
known as the ‘Bread Intifada’ (Salevurakis & Abdel-Haleim,
2008).
More recently, in 2008 protests over food broke out when the
global price of wheat increased 130%. At that time a tripling of
wheat prices led to demonstrations and strikes with access as
well
as price becoming major issues (Bush 2010; Johnstone & Mazo,
2011).
Disruption to wheat supply, price or availability, domestically
or
globally, has a significant impact in Egypt. Wheat importing
countries remain at risk to weather variability, area under
cultiva-
tion and economic forces at a global scale. In 2010 climate
factors
led to a decrease in wheat production in major exporting
countries
e this is significant because only 18% of wheat production is
exported (Lampietti et al., 2011). Summer drought and extreme
heat across the Eurasian steppe diminished the harvest in Russia
(down 32.7%) and Ukraine (down 19.3%) while cold weather
and
rain in Canada (down 13.7%) and excessive rain in Australia
(down
8.7%) further reduced harvests (USDA 2011). The result was
a shortfall of wheat available on the world market for importing
nations. The prospect of crop failure for a population as large as

China’s and its impact in a global market already experiencing
supply shortfalls had serious implications for both local and
inter-
national supply.
In summer 2010 Russia, Egypt’s main wheat source, banned
exports due to potential domestic shortages. This contributed to
a 5% decrease in imports to Egypt in 2010 that stressed local
supply
and necessitated additional external purchases (Table 1). Bread
shortages followed and price increases in parts of the country
contributed to bread-inspired demonstrations. These were por-
trayed as being separate from political protests (Lubin, 2011) or
an
Table 1
Egyptian annual wheat imports.
Year Metric tons (in ’000s) Increase/decrease e %
2006 7300 �6.06
2007 7700 5.48
2008 9900 28.57
2009 10300 4.04
2010 9800 �4.85
USDA 2011.
aggravating factor rather than a cause of unrest (Johnstone &
Mazo,
2011). Their resonance with the wider public as an expression
of
dissatisfaction merged with demonstrations calling for the
government to be replaced.
China & wheat
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of wheat.

Wheat noodles are an integral part of the diet in northern China
while rice consumption is dominant in southern regions. At
115,000 metric tons per annum the Chinese consume approxi-
mately 18e20% of the world wheat harvest. The country’s wheat
belt is centred around Henan, Anhui and neighbouring provinces
(Fig. 1), a region with a combined population of >300 million,
a figure similar to that of the Middle East (CIA 2010). Most
years
China is self-sufficient with the winter wheat crop providing
22% of
the annual harvest. For the Chinese government maintaining
adequate food supply and grain reserves is essential for
preserving
social stability (Bruins & Bu, 2006). Pork shortages in 2008
caused
prices to double, resulting in panic buying and widespread
public
unrest. Mindful of this experience, the government realizes that
potential food scarcity, in this case of wheat, can affect prices
and
fuel public dissatisfaction.
Reports of low precipitation levels in China’s eastern wheat belt
began in November, 2010 (Yu, 2011). Agricultural conditions
worsened in December as drought encompassed much of the
region. Recognizing the threat to the nation’s winter harvest
prompted the Chinese government to take action, including
efforts
to increase water supply, create greater access to groundwater,
supplement irrigation and to purchase wheat on the world
market
e cautionary measures supported by China’s vast foreign
reserves.
A poor 2010 harvest in major exporting nations (Russia et al.)
and
a winter 2011 shortfall in China put pressure on global wheat

supplies. China’s increased purchases resulted in further price
spikes as the wheat price per metric ton more than doubled from
June 2010 to February 2011 (USDA 2011; Johnstone & Mazo,
2011).
The drought served as the catalyst for China’s external purchase
of
wheat with resultant impact across several scales, the action
motivated by the perceived direct relationship between food and
politics in the country.
Fig. 1. Map of China’s main wheat-growing region.
Fig. 2. Map of meteorological stations in eastern China.
Table 2
Meteorological stations in eastern China. Mean Annual
Precipitation (MAP) is
derived from >50 years data at each site.
City Province M.A.P Latitude Longitude WMO #
Anging Anhui 1173 30.53 117.05 58424
Anyang Hunan 480 36.13 114.34 53898
Bengbu Anhui 773 32.92 117.38 58221
Bozhou Anhui 805 33.88 115.77 58102
Dongtai Jiangsu 881 32.85 120.28 58251
Huoshan Anhui 1195 31.00 116.00 58314
Jinan Shandong 572 36.60 117.10 54823
Lahehoukou Hubei 693 32.38 111.70 57265
Nanjing Jiangsu 879 31.93 118.90 58238
T. Sternberg / Applied Geography 34 (2012) 519e524 521
Claims of drought can be used to justify policy or action and in
the past have been difficult to assess prima facie. Today global
climate monitoring, including weather and satellite data,

enables
improved hazard monitoring and evaluation (Montz & Tobin,
2011).
This paper examines the 2011 winter drought in the agricultural
region of eastern China through analysis of meteorological data.
It
then reviews the potential links between drought-related events
in
China, the global wheat market and wheat supply and the price
of
bread in Egypt in winter, 2011. Whilst 2011 meteorological
records
have been used, as a recent event there is little related academic
literature. This paper uses alternate sources where there is an
absence of scientific data.
Methods
Much recent work has addressed historic drought trends in
China (Li, Cook, D’arrigo, Chenb, & Gou, 2008; Zhai & Feng,
2009;
Qui 2010). Wu et al. (2011) highlight agricultural vulnerability
to
drought; Wang et al. (2011) note an increasing susceptibility to
drought whilst He, Lü, Wu, Liu, and Zhao (2011) stress eastern
China’s drought susceptibility. Using the Standard Precipitation
Index (SPI) this paper focuses on the winter 2011 event to
identify
drought in the wheat-growing region of eastern China. After
con-
structing the drought record the paper evaluates how drought is
linked to wheat production and world commodity markets.
The SPI can effectively monitor drought at selected timescales,
enabling focus on key winter months when drought was first
reported in China (Keyantash & Dracup, 2002; Sonmez,

Komuscu,
Erkhan, & Turgu, 2005; Yu, 2011). Developed to define drought
and identify spatial and temporal extent, the SPI involves a
gamma
probability function for a selected frequency distribution of
precipitation at a meteorological station (McKee, Doeskan, &
Kleist,
1993). Based on monthly data, the index results reflect the
anomaly
from the long-term mean precipitation for the selected
timescale.
Data is transformed to a normal distribution that enables
comparison between sites and probability calculation.1
Because of this SPI can identify drought at individual stations
at
designated timescales (1, 3, 6 . months) for desired months to
construct the drought record (Mihajlovic, 2006; Sternberg,
Thomas, &
Middleton, 2011). Drought intensity reflects the strength or
magni-
tude of an event and represents the cumulative monthly values
that
exceed an established threshold with duration identified by the
number of continuous months below the threshold (Guttman,
1999;
McKee et al., 1993). Severity measures the gravity or acuteness
a drought manifest by the number of standard deviations from
the
precipitation mean;thus a moderate drought (�1 to �1.49) has a
9.2%
chance of occurrence, a severe drought (�1.5 to �1.99) a 4.6%
prob-
ability and an extreme drought (<�2) a 2.3% chance.
Using data from the China Meteorological Administration the

SPI
was used to calculate short-term drought in China’s eastern
wheat
belt. Twelve meteorological stations with 50þ years of data
were
selected (Fig. 2; Table 2). Work focuses on two time periods e
1, 2 and
3 month drought through January 31, 2011 to capture drought
onset
and intensity, and 4, 5 and 6 month drought through April 30,
2011 to
assess duration and magnitude. The SPI allows direct
comparison of
drought severity at the different months and timescales.
Results and discussion
Drought reaching extreme magnitude occurred throughout
eastern China in winter 2011. Examination at 12 sites in China’s
1 Gamma distribution function: gðxÞ ¼
1=baGðaÞxa�1e�ðx=bÞ for x > 0 (see
Mihajlovic, 2006).
wheat belt highlighted the dramatic extenuation of drought;
findings documented extreme conditions across the region
reach-
ing w100-year event levels (Table 3). Identifying the
seriousness of
the drought is only limited by the shortness of the historical
precipitation record (w60 years); for instance local anecdotal
sources report the drought to be the worst in Shandong Province
in
the last 200 years (China Daily, 2011). The 12 stations
experienced
short-term drought with all sites in drought at the 3 month time-
scale through January 31, 2011 (Mishra & Desai, 2005). This
period

covers the winter wheat-growing season and suggests a serious
impact on agricultural production. At the 6 month medium-term
timescale (winter and spring 2011) drought intensity was at crit-
ical levels; all sites were in 6 month drought through April 30,
2011 with two-thirds in extreme condition. The probability of
continued acute precipitation deficits, such as experienced at
Wuhan, Huoshan and Anqing, is exceedingly rare.
Particularly notable are the spatial distribution of drought
across
eastern China and the severity of the event. All stations
(excepting
Bengbu) reached extreme drought levels, most at several
monthly
timescales. Fig. 3 shows the distribution of extreme drought
over
the 6 month period. The figure identifies how extreme drought
occurrence greatly exceeded (by up to 35 times) the expected
probability. This emphasizes how as the winter drought
continued
Wuhan Hubei 1049 30.60 114.10 57494
Xinyang Henan 919 32.13 114.10 57297
Zhenzhou Henan 532 34.72 113.70 57083
China Meteorological Administration 2011.
Table 3
Short-term (a) and medium-term (b) drought. Shaded areas
represent moderate and
severe drought; bold signifies extreme drought. SPI drought
values: <�1 moderate,
<�1.5 severe, <�2 extreme.
Site Month timescale

1 2 3
a. Through January 31, 2011
Anqing �0.85 �0.56 �1.41
Anyang �0.48 �1.19 L2.13
Bengbu �1.63 0.01 �1.05
Bozhou �1.37 L2.02 L2.96
Dongtai �1.94 �0.67 �1.77
Huoshan �0.72 �0.96 L2.01
Jinan �0.75 �1.26 L2.13
Laohekou �1.26 �1.5 L2.08
Nanjing �1.33 �0.9 �1.86
Wuhan �1.21 �1.32 �1.93
Xinyang �1.71 L2.57 L2.68
Zhenzhou �0.85 �1.65 L2.71
Site Month timescale
4 5 6
b. Through April 30, 2011.
Anqing L3.0 L2.5 L2.9
Anyang �0.9 �1.2 �1.7
Bengbu �1.7 �1.1 �1.6
Bozhou �1.3 �1.5 L2.1
Dongtai L2.6 L2.0 L2.6
Huoshan L3.0 L2.7 L3.2
Jinan �0.6 �0.8 �1.3
Laohekou L2.2 L2.3 L2.6
Nanjing L2.9 L2.5 L2.9
Wuhan L3.3 L3.1 L3.3
Xinyang �1.7 �1.9 L2.3
Zhenzhou �1.0 �1.2 �1.8

the severity increased, peaking at 6 months when two-thirds of
the
sites experienced extreme levels. The extended duration of the
event amplifies the potential agricultural stress.
Impact of drought
The SPI results establish that eastern China experienced critical
drought conditions in winter 2011. The drought severity
highlights
the conceivably devastating effects of the hazard in China’s
densely
populated wheat-growing region. Consequences include a
possible
Fig. 3. Extreme drought probability and exceedence rate by
monthly timescale,
November 2010eApril 2011. See McKee et al., 1993 for
probability function.
10 million ton wheat harvest shortfall, 35 million people
affected,
a lack of drinking water, lost income and livelihoods, electricity
shortages and $2.3 billion in economic losses. These impacts on
citizens prompted the government response that included
trucking
water into affected areas, digging additional wells and
extending
irrigation systems. Concurrently the government bought wheat
on
the global market to add to existing stockpiles and ensure
adequate
domestic supply. Spending $1.9 billion in new infrastructure,
‘shooting the clouds’ with chemicals (such as silver nitrate) and
government and media attention at the highest levels were
effec-
tive in maintaining social stability. The top-down mitigation
efforts

reduced the drought’s domestic impact; the purchase of wheat
and
shifts in global supply and demand indirectly resulted in other
countries needing to adjust to higher wheat import prices.
The influence of Chinese drought on global wheat prices
through wheat purchases, and market concern about Chinese
wheat demand (such as speculation), connects the drought to
world events. It becomes a contributory factor to the price of
wheat
in Egypt; this in turn affects bread prices and possibly wheat
availability and distribution in different parts of the capital and
country. As the price and waving of bread became part of the
protest discourse the link to events in East Asia becomes
feasible.
The credible, but not directly verifiable, relationship suggests in
an
integrated world hazard impact is not limited to spatial scales or
the disaster zone. This process suggests a link between natural
hazards, food security and political stability at domestic (China)
and
international (Egypt) levels.
The 2011 drought in the Chinese wheat-growing region exem-
plifies how a localized event can have impact at regional and
global
scales. The rarity of the event and temporal extent of severe and
extreme climate conditions contributes to the drought’s
significant
agricultural and socio-economic impact. Perceived potential
wheat
crop failure served as the catalyst for China’s external purchase
of
wheat with resultant impact across several scales. The event led
to
a series of actions in China, including funds for relief and

relocation
and a loosening of restrictions on debate, such as allowing mild
criticism of the 3 Gorges Dam, to reduce social pressure. Aware
of
political transformation in the Middle East, the government was
highly motivated to prevent any cause for protest domestically.
Two countries
The issue of food security manifest by Egypt and China is a
major
concern for all countries (Bush 2010). With a population of 1.3
billion and recent experiences of famine (1920e1921,
1928e1930,
1958e1961) caused by drought and exacerbated by human
action, the Chinese government has chosen to keep sizeable
grain
reserves thought to be in excess of international standards
(Bruins
& Bu, 2006). This cautionary approach motivated wheat
purchases
to maintain adequate domestic supply. In Egypt food price
shock
triggered the 2008 protests; the country continues to be
considered
at ‘high price risk’ as food subsidy programs affect national
finances
(Lampietti et al., 2011). Both countries remain vulnerable when
attempting to achieve wheat security e China to drought and
climate variability and Egypt to global markets and domestic
costs.
A further issue is the geography of the two countries. As
a predominately arid nation Egypt has limited potential to
expand
grain production to meet the needs of a growing population.

Along
the Nile floodplain there is competition for arable land and
water
supply between urban populations and agricultural interests.
Unable to meet domestic needs, the country is vulnerable to
external forces (climate, economics) and dependent on the
vagaries
of international commodity markets. China’s vast (but stable)
population and agricultural production is centred in the nation’s
eastern and southern regions rather than the western and
northern
Table 4
Top wheat importing countries per capita with income, %
income spent on food and
average age.
2010 e Wheat imports per capita Per capita Age
Rank Country Metric
tons (in ’000s)
Income
US$
Food e %
of income
% under
25 yrs
1 UAE 370.66 47,400 8.7 31.1
2 Libya 242.8 12,062 37.2 47.4
3 Israel 238.97 27,085 17.6 43.0

4 Jordan 173.61 4435 40.7 54.4
5 Algeria 101.44 4477 43.7 47.5
6 Tunisia 89.330 4160 35.6 43.2
7 Yemen 86.84 1230 45 65.5
8 Egypt 81.28 2771 38.8 52.4
9 Iraq 76.7 2625 35 60.6
10 Cuba 70.5 5000 n/a 34.6
ERS/USDA 2010.
T. Sternberg / Applied Geography 34 (2012) 519e524 523
drylands. The country has adequate land, water and technology
for
wheat production to be self-sufficient in most years. Strong
finances enhance the government’s ability to develop
agricultural
resources as well as monitor and mitigate hazards. In both coun-
tries the leadership attempts to balance resources and costs with
maintaining social stability e clearly in 2011 China was more
successful at this than the former Egyptian regime.
The event reflects the vulnerability of populations to drought
and stresses how hazards link the physical and human environ-
ments (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2012; Montz & Tobin, 2011). This
underscores several processes in China that have contributed to
growing social exposure to hazards in recent decades.
Deforesta-
tion, degradation, dams, land use change, urbanization and
a decrease in cultivated land exemplify human action that
exacer-
bates drought risk (Bai & Dent, 2009). These factors are
coupled
with warming temperature trends and increased variability and
intensity in precipitation (IPCC 2007). Conditions in Egypt
reflected
poor harvests, a fragile food supply chain and a growing

population,
conditions that put the country at risk of food scarcity with
disruptive implications for society (Johnstone & Mazo, 2011).
Impacts include adequate food supply, maintenance of
livelihoods,
human well-being and ultimately community and political
stability
in affected countries.
In Egypt poverty rates increased to 40% whilst in China the
poverty rate has fallen to 4% in the last 30 years as a result of
the
country’s rapid economic development (Nowaira, 2011). China
has
$3 trillion in foreign reserves that enable the government to
spend
as needed on commodities, wheat in this case, or invest in
drought
alleviation measures in affected regions. In contrast the
Egyptian
system was less capable of perceiving and meeting basic needs
of
its population. Whereas in 2010 Chinese (84%) were highly
opti-
mistic about the future, Egyptians (73%) expressed great
pessimism
with the country’s direction prior to Mubarek’s fall (Bell,
2011). The
chain of events and actions addressed in this paper highlight
how
government effectiveness, or lack thereof, in two autocratic
regimes resulted in opposite outcomes.
Future implications
In an interconnected world we have reached the point where
a regional climate event can have global impact. The effect is

no
longer limited to physical damage at a disaster’s epicentre but
can
include social and economic consequences as well as hazards
impact globalized systems. In this event drought in China may
have
had economic and then political ramifications half a world
away.
Such unfolding progressions are more commonly evaluated for
major events (conflict, oil prices, economic crisis) but similar
scenarios are likely to be repeated as climate volatility,
expanding
populations and competition for resources disturb global
markets
and potentially national stability.
The effect of climatological hazards on wheat production in
2010e11 is a striking example of how climate hazards,
agriculture
and politics can become interwoven across spatial scales. As
protests spread from Tunisia and Egypt throughout the Middle
East
it is instructive to examine the world’s major wheat importing
countries per capita (Table 4). Immediately notable is that the
top
nine countries are in the Middle East; seven experienced
political
protests resulting in unknown numbers of civilian deaths in
2010.
This reflects the vulnerability of Arab countries to commodity
markets because of their high dependence on imported food
(Lampietti et al., 2011). Equally striking is the percentage of
household income spent on food in the region e citizens in the
countries facing political unrest spend >35% of their household
budget on food supplies (USDA 2011). This contrasts starkly
with

developed countries such, as the US and UK, that spend <10%
of
income on food.
The link between a doubling of global wheat prices, pressure on
domestic prices and dissatisfaction with governance becomes
plausible. Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the two Middle
Eastern countries not experiencing protests, are high income
countries where the percentage of earnings spend on food is low
and income levels provide the ability to adjust and adapt to
changing food prices and supply. A further concern in the
region is
rapidly growing populations; in several countries more than half
the population is under 25 whilst China’s median age is 34.2
years.
Bread protests and food riots have often precipitated political
and social change throughout history e think of the French and
Russian Revolutions. More recently foodecentred revolts in
Argentina (1979) and Haiti (2008) led to changes in
government. In
2010 food riots took place in Bolivia and led to 12 deaths in
Mozambique. The long history connecting food shortages with
politics continues in the Middle East. What are the potential
implications of wheat shortfalls on food prices and governments
in
the region if drought continues in China or repeats in Russia
and
Ukraine? To ensure domestic supply Russia banned wheat
exports
in summer 2011. After events in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and
Yemen is
there possibility of further wheat price increases affecting civil
society in other countries?
Conclusion

Unexpected circumstances saw extreme drought in China, the
price of bread and political change become interconnected with
Egypt in 2011. Matching scientific methods e the Standard
Precipitation Index e with socio-political processes finds links
between climate hazards and social issues that cross continents.
This stresses the importance of examining issues that shape our
world from multiple angles by combining different
methodologies.
Events suggest a potential research agenda for applied
geography
that may cross disciplines and strengthen the value and
relevance
of academic inquiry.
Drought is the natural hazard with the greatest potential
significance for it can ultimately affect more people and
resources
than any other natural hazard. Other disasters may disrupt food
supply or social order in situ, such as the Japanese tsunami, the
Haiti
earthquake or Pakistani floods, with some potential knock-on
effect
regionally. However, it is the indirect influence of climate
events
and disasters that have a global reach. Today the fact that
drought
in China may affect bread prices and indirectly influence social
stability in the Middle East or elsewhere exemplifies the global-
ization of drought. If disaster one day threatens agriculture,
energy
supply or water we will learn how interconnected we have
become.

Acknowledgements
The author thanks the British Academy and the Royal
Geographical Society’s Thesiger-Oman Desert Fellowship for
research support.
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for-revolution
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02/08/content_11965023.htm
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02/08/content_11965023.htm
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factbook/geos/ch.%20html

http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/ch.%20html
ftp://ftp.fao.org/es/esa/roa/pdf/policybrief2_en.pdf
http://onespot.wsj.com/small-business/2011/02/01/676b9/non-
political-bread-riotsare-breaking
http://onespot.wsj.com/small-business/2011/02/01/676b9/non-
political-bread-riotsare-breaking
http://www.guardian.co.uk/%20commentisfree/%202011/mar/29
/egypt-hosni-mubarak-corruption%20(2010)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/%20commentisfree/%202011/mar/29
/egypt-hosni-mubarak-corruption%20(2010)
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usda%20home
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usda%20home
http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/%3Fcountry%3Deg%26
%3Bcommodity%3Dwheat%26graph%3D%20imports
http://www.zawya.com/printstory.cfm%3Fstoryid%3D%20ZAW
YA%2020110126082251%26l%3D082200110125
YA%2020110126082251%26l%3D082200110125
YA%2020110126082251%26l%3D082200110125
YA%2020110126082251%26l%3D082200110125Chinese
drought, bread and the Arab SpringIntroductionSocial
backgroundEgyptChina & wheatMethodsResults and
discussionImpact of droughtTwo countriesFuture
implicationsConclusionAcknowledgementsReferences

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