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International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD)
Volume 3 Issue 5, August 2019 Available Online: www.ijtsrd.com e-ISSN: 2456 – 6470
@ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1988
Android Based Questionnaires Application for
Heart Disease Prediction System
Nan Yu Hlaing1, Phyu Pyar Moe2
1Assistant Lecturer, Myanmar Institute of Information Technology, Mandalay, Myanmar
2Assistant Lecturer, Sagaing Education College, Sagaing, Myanmar
How to cite this paper: Nan Yu Hlaing |
Phyu Pyar Moe "Android Based
Questionnaires Application for Heart
Disease Prediction
System" Published
in International
Journal of Trend in
Scientific Research
and Development
(ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-
6470, Volume-3 |
Issue-5, August 2019, pp.1988-1991,
https://doi.org/10.31142/ijtsrd26750
Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and
International Journal ofTrend inScientific
Research and Development Journal. This
is an Open Access article distributed
under the terms of
the Creative
Commons Attribution
License (CC BY 4.0)
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by
/4.0)
ABSTRACT
Today classification techniques in data mining are most popular to prediction
and data exploration. This Heart Disease Prediction System (HDPS) is using
Naive Bayesian Classification with a comparison for simple probability and
that of Jelinek-Mercer (JM) Smoothing. It is implemented as an Android based
application: user must be feedback and answers the questions then can be
seen the result as user desired in different ways: exactly heart disease is
present or not and then with predictions (No, Low, Average, High, Very High).
And the system will be provided required suggestions such as doctor details
and medications to patients could be able. It will be also provedthatenhanced
Naive Bayes with Jelinek-Mercer smoothing technique is also effective to
eliminate the noise for prediction the heart disease. This system can also
calculate classifier accuracy by using precision and recall.
KEYWORDS: Heart disease, Naïve Bayes, Smoothing, Android, precision, recall
1. INTRODUCTION
Data mining is the technique to search the relationships and
patterns from the large database. Heart diseases remain the
main cause of death worldwide and possible detection at an
earlier stage will prevent the attacks. Sometime clinical
decisions that are based on doctors’ intuition and
experience. But it can cause unwanted biases, large amount
of medical costs which affects the quality ofserviceprovided
to patients, so need to predict heart disease before they
occur in their patients. For this purpose, HDPS converts the
unused data into a dataset for modeling using mining
techniques, can be used by practitioners and also patients
themselves. This android based HDPS system helps and
advices the patient to safe, decrease unwanted practice
variation, to improve patient outcome, how to care and
information about doctors and clinic.
2. THEORY BACKGROUND
Data mining is a knowledge discovery technique to analyze
data from large data sets. It is a computational process of
finding patterns in large data sets including methods at the
intersection of machine learning, artificial intelligence,
statistics and database systems. One of the main focuses of
data mining process is to obtain information from the data
and converted it into can knowledgeable and reasonable
structure for further use [1].
Classification is the problem of identifying to which of a set
of categories a new observation belongs, on the basis of a
training set of data containing observations (or instances)
whose category membership is known [3].
2.1 Handling Missing Attribute Values
Methods of handling missing attribute values in data mining
are categorized into sequential and parallel.
1. In sequential methods, known value is replaced at the
missing attribute values.
2. In parallel methods, knowledge from the original data
sets is used directly.
3. In sequential methods, missing attribute value is
converted into completer data set to handle missing
attribute values original in-complete data sets e.g., rule
induction, is conducted.
Table 1 is represented as a simple example with the
attributes OldPeak, Slope, and CA and with the Predicted
Attribute. However, data sets areincomplete,sothatmissing
attribute values are presented by "?"S [2].
In this method, an arithmetic mean of known values is used
for all missing attribute value for a numerical attribute. In
Table 1, the mean of known attribute values for Old Peak is
2.2; hence all missing attribute values for Old Peakshouldbe
replaced by 2.2. This mean of known attribute values for
slope is 2 and CA is 1. Table 2 is represented after replacing
with mean value for missing attribute values.
IJTSRD26750
International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470
@ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1989
Table 1 Sample data set with a numerical attribute before
replacing
Case Old Peak Slope CA
Predicted
Attribute
1 2.3 3 ? 0
2 1.5 2 3 2
3 ? ? 2 1
4 3.5 3 0 0
5 1.4 1 ? 0
6 0.8 1 0 0
7 3.6 3 2 3
8 ? 1 ? 0
9 1.4 ? 1 2
10 3.1 ? 0 1
Table2. After replacing with mean value for missing
attribute values
Case Old Peak Slope CA
Predicted
Attribute
1 2.3 3 1 0
2 1.5 2 3 2
3 2.2 2 2 1
4 3.5 3 0 0
5 1.4 1 1 0
6 0.8 1 0 0
7 3.6 3 2 3
8 2.2 1 1 0
9 1.4 2 1 2
10 3.1 2 0 1
2.2 Introduction of Naive Bayes
The Bayes theorem was developed and named for THOMAS
BAYES.“Naive” because it is based on independence
assumption. Describes what makes something "evidence"
and how much evidence it is. Bayesian Classifiers are
statistical classifiers. They can predict the probability that a
data item is a member of a particular class.
Original Belief + Observation = New Belief (1)
Naive Bayes or Bayes’ Rule (algorithm) is used to create
models with predictive capabilities. It provides new ways of
exploring and understanding data. Why naive Bayes
implementation is most prefer:
1. When the data is high
2. When the attributes are independent of each other
3. When we expect more efficient output, as compared to
other methods output
2.2.1. Attributes’ Probability of Naive Bayes
Bayes’ theorem can be stated and estimate
P(ai |vj) using m-estimates [3]:
𝑃(𝑎𝑖 |𝑣𝑗) = (2)
Where:n = the number of training examples for which v=vj
nc = number of examples for which v=vj and a=ai
p = a priori estimate for P(ai|vj)
m = the equivalent sample size
2.2.2. Naive Bayes Classifier
The Bayes Naive classifier selects the most likely
classification Vnb given the attribute values a1 , a2 , …, an
results in [4]:
Vnb = arg max v j ∈ v, P(v j) ∏ P(a i |v j) (3)
2.3 Smoothing Methods
To remove and avoid noise or other fine-scale
structures/rapid occurrences in data smoothing is attempts
to capture those noise by using an approximatingfunction.It
refers to the adjustment of maximum likelihood estimator
for the model so that it will be more accurate. The estimator
generally under estimate the probability of unseendata.The
main purpose of the smoothing is to provide a non-zero
probability to unseen data and improve the accuracy of
probability estimator [5].
2.3.1. Probability of Jelinek-Mercer (JM) Smoothing
P (x | Ci ) is calculated by Jelinek-Mercer smoothing,
P (x | Ci ) = (1-) P(x | Ci ) +  P(x |C) (4)
Where, P(x | Ci ) = probability of smoothened recorda
 = balancing parameter between 0 and 1, and P(x |C) =
estimated attribute in class C.
2.3.2 Naive Bayes Classifier with smoothed Probability
To classify an attribute d, Naive Bayes (NB) is used and finds
the class Ci that maximizes [3] [4]:
Cnb = P (Ci ) P (d | Ci )
Where, 𝑃 (𝑑 | 𝐶𝑖 ) = ∏ 𝑝(𝑥𝑘|𝑐𝑖)
| |
(5)
3. STATE OF THE PROBLEM
There are many kinds of health disease prediction system
with various methods. Heart disease is very importantandit
might need to help immediately but they are not availableas
need as due to many reasons. People cannot identify and
measure their symptoms, cannot carry medicines anywhere
and without consulting by doctors. This system solves the
problems and predicts whether a patient has heart disease
or not.
3.1 Sample Data and Result
Predictable attribute: User can see the classifier result by
choosing one of two options:
1. No - no heart disease; Yes - has heart disease
2. Represents the possibility of heart disease: No, Low,
Average, High, Very high.
Input attributes:
 Age
 Sex
 Chest Pain Type
 Blood Pressure
 Serum Cholesterol
 Fasting Blood Sugar
 Rest ECG
 Thalach
 Exang
 Oldpeak
 CA
 Thal
To predict the Health Disease, this system used some
symptoms of patient. For example: age, sex, blood pressure
and blood sugar, chest pain, ECG graph data etc., It will be
implemented in Android based application which takes
medical test’s parameter as an input. It can predict state of
heart disease either Yes/NoorNo/Low/Average/High/Very
High that user want to and depend on the predicted result,
International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470
@ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1990
system can allow to view suggestions and address ofdoctors
and clinic center. It can be used as a training tool to train
nurses and medical students to diagnose patients with heart
disease [6] [8].
4. PROPOSE SYSTEM
Fig1: System Flow Diagram for Heart Disease Prediction
System
5. EXPERIMENT
5.1 Performance Measures
1. Performance Evaluation Metric
That focus on the predictivecapability ofa model ratherthan
how fast it takes to classify or build models, scalability, etc.
2. Most widely-used two-class metric
Predicted class
Actual class
Class=Yes Class=No
Class=Yes a(TP) b(FN)
Class=No c(FP) d(TN)
In the classification withtwo-classes,positiveand negative,a
single prediction has four possibilities.
1. The True Positive rate (TP) and True Negative rate(TN)
are correct classifications.
2. A False Positive (FP) occurs when the outcome is
incorrectly predicted as positive when it is actually
negative.
3. A False Negative (FN) occurs when the outcome is
incorrectly predicted as negative when it is actually
positive.
Since the class label prediction is of multi-class, theresult on
the test set will be displayed as a two-dimensionalconfusion
matrix with a row and column for each class. Each matrix
element shows the number of test cases for which the actual
class is the row and the predicted class is the column [10].
Accuracy - It refers to the total number of records that are
correctly classified by the classifier.
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = = (6)
Precision - is the fraction of retrieved instances that
are relevant.
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 = (7)
Recall - is the fraction of relevant instances that are
retrieved [7].
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 = (8)
5.5.1. Sample Calculation with Naïve Bayes and
Jelinek-mercer smoothing
ForNo(0)
P(0)*P(57|0)*P(0|0)*P(2|0)*P(130|0)*P(236|0)*P(0|0)*P(2|
0)*P(174|0)*P(0|0)*P(0|0)*P(2|0)*P(1|0)*P(3|0)
=0.32*0.6781818182*0.6920634921*0.5224489796*0.2875
*0.5298892989*0.4385093168*0.311111111*0.661751152
1*0.675*0.337254902*0.3025641026*0.7351955307=164/
303
=2.95789E-0.5 (Simple Naïve Bayes)
=4.29913E-0.7(NaïveBayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing)
ForLow(1)
P(57|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P(130|1)*P(236|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P(
174|1)*P(0|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P(1|1)*P(3|1)
=0.32*0.1054545455*0.1365079365*0.1346938776*0.225*
0.1977859779*0.2149068323*0.255555555*0.150230414*
0.175*0.2196078431*0.2769230769*0.1374301676
=0.0000000003332112
=6.034829E-10 (Simple Naïve Bayes)
=1.02E-11 (Naïve Bayes with Jelinek-mercer smoothing)
ForAverage(2)
=P(57|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)*P(130|2)*P(236|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)*
P(174|2)*P(0|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)*P(1|2)*P(3|2)
=0.12*0.0872727273*0.0571428571*0.1551020408*0.1625
*0.1092250923*0.1155279503*0.1444444444*0.07649769
59*0.0589285714*0.1869281046*0.2128205128*0.053631
2849
=2.6441343E-13 =55/303
=3.14155E-14 (Simple Naïve Bayes)
=4.30178E-12 (Naïve Bayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing)
ForHigh(3)
=P(57|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)*P(130|3)*P(236|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)*
P(174|3)*P(0|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)*P(1|3)*P(3|3)
=0.12*0.0872727273*0.073015873*0.1142857143*0.1625*
0.1092250923*0.1527950311*0.1444444444*0.067281106
*0.0589285714*0.1738562092*0.1358974359*0.04804469
27
=1.54070966E-13 ==35/303
=1.7797E-14 (Simple Naïve Bayes)
=3.26594E-12 (Naïve Bayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing)
ForVeryHigh(4)
=P(57|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)*P(130|4)*P(236|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)*
P(174|4)*P(0|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)*P(1|4)*P(3|4)
=0.12*0.0418181818*0.0412698413*0.0734693878*0.1625
*0.0538745387*0.0782608696*0.1444444444*0.04423963
13*0.0321428571*0.082529412*0.0717948718*0.0256983
24
=1.54070966E-13 =13/303
=5.01259E - 29 (Simple Naïve Bayes)
= 2.26922E-13(NaïveBayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing)
=0.0000295789
The Result is 0. Predited Attribute is No.
International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470
@ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1991
5.5.2. Suggestion of the System
Do and Don’t Doctors and Clinic Centre Address
#24 Hr Hotline phone no. (09259898661, 259898662)
1. Take a walk
2. Stop smoking
3. Cut out or least cut down high
fat fast foods
4. Avoid watching >2hrs of TV a
day
5. Cut down on beverages and
fruit juices with added sugar
6. Use mono-unsaturated and
polyunsaturated fat
7. Use food with low salt and try
to add less salt while cooking
8. Constant noise
9. Hormonal therapy
10. Air pollution
11. Anger
12. Avoid alcohol or drink in
moderation preferably wine
13. Avoid food which have low
nutrition value like sodas and
candy
1. Dr. Than Than Kyaing (Chan
Nyein Aung, Aryuthukha,
Kankaw, Nandaw)
2. Dr. Kyaw Soe Win
3. (Chan Nyein Aung,
ryuthukha)
4. Dr. Myint Ngwe (Chan Nyein
Aung, Nyein)
5. Dr. Aung Thu (Nandaw)
6. Dr. Khin Maung Htwe
(Nandaw, Aryuthukha)
7. Dr. Khin OoLwin (Aryuthukh)
8. Dr. Tun Shwe (Aryuthukha,
Nyein)
Chan Nyein Aung
(No.115, 74 Street, Between 27*28 Street,
Mandalay, Ph. no:0272885, 72886, 72887)
Aryuthukha
(No.150, 74 Streets, Between 30*31 Street,
Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0274482, 74483)
Kankaw
(34 Street, Between 78*79 Street,
Mandalay, Ph. no: 0233258, 66880)
Nandaw
(71 Street, Between 28*29 Street,
Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0260443, 60445,
60446)
Nyein
(No.333, 82 Street, Between 29*30 Street,
Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0232050, 34795,
65460)
6. CONCLUSION
This system is the Heart Disease Prediction System by using
Naive Bayesian and Jelinek-Mercer smoothing technique.
Android HDPS accepts patients'datasetas systeminputs and
will be used 13 attributes of medical diagnosis. This system
will be performed as an experiment on application of two
data mining algorithms to predict the heart disease and to
provide the comparison results of prediction and
effectiveness of Simple Naive Bayes and enhanced Naive
Bayes with J-M Smoothing. This system is to enhance the
performance of Naïve Bayes Classifierinclassifyingpatients'
dataset with a modification ofJelinek-Mercer Smoothingand
this system will also present and redirect the related
suggestions for the patients.
REFERENCES
[1] Jiawei HanUniversity of Illinois at Urbana–
ChampaignMicheline KamberJian PeiSimon Fraser
University “Data MiningConcepts and Techniques
Third Edition”.
[2] Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse University of Kansas
“Handling Missing Attribute Values”.
[3] http://cis.poly.edu/~mleung/FRE7851/f07/naiveBay
esianClassifier.pdf
[4] http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~10601b/slides/NBayes.pdf
[5] http://mlwiki.org/index.php/Smoothing_for_Language
_Models
[6] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-
conditions/heart-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-
20353118.
[7] https://developers.google.com/machine-
learning/crash-course/classification/precision-and-
recall.
[8] https://www.medicinenet.com/symptoms_of_serious_
diseases_and_health_problems/article.htm#15_signs_a
nd_symptoms_of_a_heart_attack
[9] Sellappan Palaniappan, Rafiah Awang, “Intelligent
Heart Disease Prediction System Using Data Mining
Techniques”.
[10] http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~eamonn/CE/Bayesian%20Cl
assification%20withInsect_examples.pdf

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Android Based Questionnaires Application for Heart Disease Prediction System

  • 1. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) Volume 3 Issue 5, August 2019 Available Online: www.ijtsrd.com e-ISSN: 2456 – 6470 @ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1988 Android Based Questionnaires Application for Heart Disease Prediction System Nan Yu Hlaing1, Phyu Pyar Moe2 1Assistant Lecturer, Myanmar Institute of Information Technology, Mandalay, Myanmar 2Assistant Lecturer, Sagaing Education College, Sagaing, Myanmar How to cite this paper: Nan Yu Hlaing | Phyu Pyar Moe "Android Based Questionnaires Application for Heart Disease Prediction System" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456- 6470, Volume-3 | Issue-5, August 2019, pp.1988-1991, https://doi.org/10.31142/ijtsrd26750 Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and International Journal ofTrend inScientific Research and Development Journal. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by /4.0) ABSTRACT Today classification techniques in data mining are most popular to prediction and data exploration. This Heart Disease Prediction System (HDPS) is using Naive Bayesian Classification with a comparison for simple probability and that of Jelinek-Mercer (JM) Smoothing. It is implemented as an Android based application: user must be feedback and answers the questions then can be seen the result as user desired in different ways: exactly heart disease is present or not and then with predictions (No, Low, Average, High, Very High). And the system will be provided required suggestions such as doctor details and medications to patients could be able. It will be also provedthatenhanced Naive Bayes with Jelinek-Mercer smoothing technique is also effective to eliminate the noise for prediction the heart disease. This system can also calculate classifier accuracy by using precision and recall. KEYWORDS: Heart disease, Naïve Bayes, Smoothing, Android, precision, recall 1. INTRODUCTION Data mining is the technique to search the relationships and patterns from the large database. Heart diseases remain the main cause of death worldwide and possible detection at an earlier stage will prevent the attacks. Sometime clinical decisions that are based on doctors’ intuition and experience. But it can cause unwanted biases, large amount of medical costs which affects the quality ofserviceprovided to patients, so need to predict heart disease before they occur in their patients. For this purpose, HDPS converts the unused data into a dataset for modeling using mining techniques, can be used by practitioners and also patients themselves. This android based HDPS system helps and advices the patient to safe, decrease unwanted practice variation, to improve patient outcome, how to care and information about doctors and clinic. 2. THEORY BACKGROUND Data mining is a knowledge discovery technique to analyze data from large data sets. It is a computational process of finding patterns in large data sets including methods at the intersection of machine learning, artificial intelligence, statistics and database systems. One of the main focuses of data mining process is to obtain information from the data and converted it into can knowledgeable and reasonable structure for further use [1]. Classification is the problem of identifying to which of a set of categories a new observation belongs, on the basis of a training set of data containing observations (or instances) whose category membership is known [3]. 2.1 Handling Missing Attribute Values Methods of handling missing attribute values in data mining are categorized into sequential and parallel. 1. In sequential methods, known value is replaced at the missing attribute values. 2. In parallel methods, knowledge from the original data sets is used directly. 3. In sequential methods, missing attribute value is converted into completer data set to handle missing attribute values original in-complete data sets e.g., rule induction, is conducted. Table 1 is represented as a simple example with the attributes OldPeak, Slope, and CA and with the Predicted Attribute. However, data sets areincomplete,sothatmissing attribute values are presented by "?"S [2]. In this method, an arithmetic mean of known values is used for all missing attribute value for a numerical attribute. In Table 1, the mean of known attribute values for Old Peak is 2.2; hence all missing attribute values for Old Peakshouldbe replaced by 2.2. This mean of known attribute values for slope is 2 and CA is 1. Table 2 is represented after replacing with mean value for missing attribute values. IJTSRD26750
  • 2. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470 @ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1989 Table 1 Sample data set with a numerical attribute before replacing Case Old Peak Slope CA Predicted Attribute 1 2.3 3 ? 0 2 1.5 2 3 2 3 ? ? 2 1 4 3.5 3 0 0 5 1.4 1 ? 0 6 0.8 1 0 0 7 3.6 3 2 3 8 ? 1 ? 0 9 1.4 ? 1 2 10 3.1 ? 0 1 Table2. After replacing with mean value for missing attribute values Case Old Peak Slope CA Predicted Attribute 1 2.3 3 1 0 2 1.5 2 3 2 3 2.2 2 2 1 4 3.5 3 0 0 5 1.4 1 1 0 6 0.8 1 0 0 7 3.6 3 2 3 8 2.2 1 1 0 9 1.4 2 1 2 10 3.1 2 0 1 2.2 Introduction of Naive Bayes The Bayes theorem was developed and named for THOMAS BAYES.“Naive” because it is based on independence assumption. Describes what makes something "evidence" and how much evidence it is. Bayesian Classifiers are statistical classifiers. They can predict the probability that a data item is a member of a particular class. Original Belief + Observation = New Belief (1) Naive Bayes or Bayes’ Rule (algorithm) is used to create models with predictive capabilities. It provides new ways of exploring and understanding data. Why naive Bayes implementation is most prefer: 1. When the data is high 2. When the attributes are independent of each other 3. When we expect more efficient output, as compared to other methods output 2.2.1. Attributes’ Probability of Naive Bayes Bayes’ theorem can be stated and estimate P(ai |vj) using m-estimates [3]: 𝑃(𝑎𝑖 |𝑣𝑗) = (2) Where:n = the number of training examples for which v=vj nc = number of examples for which v=vj and a=ai p = a priori estimate for P(ai|vj) m = the equivalent sample size 2.2.2. Naive Bayes Classifier The Bayes Naive classifier selects the most likely classification Vnb given the attribute values a1 , a2 , …, an results in [4]: Vnb = arg max v j ∈ v, P(v j) ∏ P(a i |v j) (3) 2.3 Smoothing Methods To remove and avoid noise or other fine-scale structures/rapid occurrences in data smoothing is attempts to capture those noise by using an approximatingfunction.It refers to the adjustment of maximum likelihood estimator for the model so that it will be more accurate. The estimator generally under estimate the probability of unseendata.The main purpose of the smoothing is to provide a non-zero probability to unseen data and improve the accuracy of probability estimator [5]. 2.3.1. Probability of Jelinek-Mercer (JM) Smoothing P (x | Ci ) is calculated by Jelinek-Mercer smoothing, P (x | Ci ) = (1-) P(x | Ci ) +  P(x |C) (4) Where, P(x | Ci ) = probability of smoothened recorda  = balancing parameter between 0 and 1, and P(x |C) = estimated attribute in class C. 2.3.2 Naive Bayes Classifier with smoothed Probability To classify an attribute d, Naive Bayes (NB) is used and finds the class Ci that maximizes [3] [4]: Cnb = P (Ci ) P (d | Ci ) Where, 𝑃 (𝑑 | 𝐶𝑖 ) = ∏ 𝑝(𝑥𝑘|𝑐𝑖) | | (5) 3. STATE OF THE PROBLEM There are many kinds of health disease prediction system with various methods. Heart disease is very importantandit might need to help immediately but they are not availableas need as due to many reasons. People cannot identify and measure their symptoms, cannot carry medicines anywhere and without consulting by doctors. This system solves the problems and predicts whether a patient has heart disease or not. 3.1 Sample Data and Result Predictable attribute: User can see the classifier result by choosing one of two options: 1. No - no heart disease; Yes - has heart disease 2. Represents the possibility of heart disease: No, Low, Average, High, Very high. Input attributes:  Age  Sex  Chest Pain Type  Blood Pressure  Serum Cholesterol  Fasting Blood Sugar  Rest ECG  Thalach  Exang  Oldpeak  CA  Thal To predict the Health Disease, this system used some symptoms of patient. For example: age, sex, blood pressure and blood sugar, chest pain, ECG graph data etc., It will be implemented in Android based application which takes medical test’s parameter as an input. It can predict state of heart disease either Yes/NoorNo/Low/Average/High/Very High that user want to and depend on the predicted result,
  • 3. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470 @ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1990 system can allow to view suggestions and address ofdoctors and clinic center. It can be used as a training tool to train nurses and medical students to diagnose patients with heart disease [6] [8]. 4. PROPOSE SYSTEM Fig1: System Flow Diagram for Heart Disease Prediction System 5. EXPERIMENT 5.1 Performance Measures 1. Performance Evaluation Metric That focus on the predictivecapability ofa model ratherthan how fast it takes to classify or build models, scalability, etc. 2. Most widely-used two-class metric Predicted class Actual class Class=Yes Class=No Class=Yes a(TP) b(FN) Class=No c(FP) d(TN) In the classification withtwo-classes,positiveand negative,a single prediction has four possibilities. 1. The True Positive rate (TP) and True Negative rate(TN) are correct classifications. 2. A False Positive (FP) occurs when the outcome is incorrectly predicted as positive when it is actually negative. 3. A False Negative (FN) occurs when the outcome is incorrectly predicted as negative when it is actually positive. Since the class label prediction is of multi-class, theresult on the test set will be displayed as a two-dimensionalconfusion matrix with a row and column for each class. Each matrix element shows the number of test cases for which the actual class is the row and the predicted class is the column [10]. Accuracy - It refers to the total number of records that are correctly classified by the classifier. 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = = (6) Precision - is the fraction of retrieved instances that are relevant. 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 = (7) Recall - is the fraction of relevant instances that are retrieved [7]. 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 = (8) 5.5.1. Sample Calculation with Naïve Bayes and Jelinek-mercer smoothing ForNo(0) P(0)*P(57|0)*P(0|0)*P(2|0)*P(130|0)*P(236|0)*P(0|0)*P(2| 0)*P(174|0)*P(0|0)*P(0|0)*P(2|0)*P(1|0)*P(3|0) =0.32*0.6781818182*0.6920634921*0.5224489796*0.2875 *0.5298892989*0.4385093168*0.311111111*0.661751152 1*0.675*0.337254902*0.3025641026*0.7351955307=164/ 303 =2.95789E-0.5 (Simple Naïve Bayes) =4.29913E-0.7(NaïveBayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing) ForLow(1) P(57|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P(130|1)*P(236|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P( 174|1)*P(0|1)*P(0|1)*P(2|1)*P(1|1)*P(3|1) =0.32*0.1054545455*0.1365079365*0.1346938776*0.225* 0.1977859779*0.2149068323*0.255555555*0.150230414* 0.175*0.2196078431*0.2769230769*0.1374301676 =0.0000000003332112 =6.034829E-10 (Simple Naïve Bayes) =1.02E-11 (Naïve Bayes with Jelinek-mercer smoothing) ForAverage(2) =P(57|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)*P(130|2)*P(236|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)* P(174|2)*P(0|2)*P(0|2)*P(2|2)*P(1|2)*P(3|2) =0.12*0.0872727273*0.0571428571*0.1551020408*0.1625 *0.1092250923*0.1155279503*0.1444444444*0.07649769 59*0.0589285714*0.1869281046*0.2128205128*0.053631 2849 =2.6441343E-13 =55/303 =3.14155E-14 (Simple Naïve Bayes) =4.30178E-12 (Naïve Bayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing) ForHigh(3) =P(57|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)*P(130|3)*P(236|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)* P(174|3)*P(0|3)*P(0|3)*P(2|3)*P(1|3)*P(3|3) =0.12*0.0872727273*0.073015873*0.1142857143*0.1625* 0.1092250923*0.1527950311*0.1444444444*0.067281106 *0.0589285714*0.1738562092*0.1358974359*0.04804469 27 =1.54070966E-13 ==35/303 =1.7797E-14 (Simple Naïve Bayes) =3.26594E-12 (Naïve Bayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing) ForVeryHigh(4) =P(57|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)*P(130|4)*P(236|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)* P(174|4)*P(0|4)*P(0|4)*P(2|4)*P(1|4)*P(3|4) =0.12*0.0418181818*0.0412698413*0.0734693878*0.1625 *0.0538745387*0.0782608696*0.1444444444*0.04423963 13*0.0321428571*0.082529412*0.0717948718*0.0256983 24 =1.54070966E-13 =13/303 =5.01259E - 29 (Simple Naïve Bayes) = 2.26922E-13(NaïveBayes withJelinek-mercersmoothing) =0.0000295789 The Result is 0. Predited Attribute is No.
  • 4. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD) @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470 @ IJTSRD | Unique Paper ID – IJTSRD26750 | Volume – 3 | Issue – 5 | July - August 2019 Page 1991 5.5.2. Suggestion of the System Do and Don’t Doctors and Clinic Centre Address #24 Hr Hotline phone no. (09259898661, 259898662) 1. Take a walk 2. Stop smoking 3. Cut out or least cut down high fat fast foods 4. Avoid watching >2hrs of TV a day 5. Cut down on beverages and fruit juices with added sugar 6. Use mono-unsaturated and polyunsaturated fat 7. Use food with low salt and try to add less salt while cooking 8. Constant noise 9. Hormonal therapy 10. Air pollution 11. Anger 12. Avoid alcohol or drink in moderation preferably wine 13. Avoid food which have low nutrition value like sodas and candy 1. Dr. Than Than Kyaing (Chan Nyein Aung, Aryuthukha, Kankaw, Nandaw) 2. Dr. Kyaw Soe Win 3. (Chan Nyein Aung, ryuthukha) 4. Dr. Myint Ngwe (Chan Nyein Aung, Nyein) 5. Dr. Aung Thu (Nandaw) 6. Dr. Khin Maung Htwe (Nandaw, Aryuthukha) 7. Dr. Khin OoLwin (Aryuthukh) 8. Dr. Tun Shwe (Aryuthukha, Nyein) Chan Nyein Aung (No.115, 74 Street, Between 27*28 Street, Mandalay, Ph. no:0272885, 72886, 72887) Aryuthukha (No.150, 74 Streets, Between 30*31 Street, Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0274482, 74483) Kankaw (34 Street, Between 78*79 Street, Mandalay, Ph. no: 0233258, 66880) Nandaw (71 Street, Between 28*29 Street, Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0260443, 60445, 60446) Nyein (No.333, 82 Street, Between 29*30 Street, Mandalay, and Ph. no: 0232050, 34795, 65460) 6. CONCLUSION This system is the Heart Disease Prediction System by using Naive Bayesian and Jelinek-Mercer smoothing technique. Android HDPS accepts patients'datasetas systeminputs and will be used 13 attributes of medical diagnosis. This system will be performed as an experiment on application of two data mining algorithms to predict the heart disease and to provide the comparison results of prediction and effectiveness of Simple Naive Bayes and enhanced Naive Bayes with J-M Smoothing. This system is to enhance the performance of Naïve Bayes Classifierinclassifyingpatients' dataset with a modification ofJelinek-Mercer Smoothingand this system will also present and redirect the related suggestions for the patients. REFERENCES [1] Jiawei HanUniversity of Illinois at Urbana– ChampaignMicheline KamberJian PeiSimon Fraser University “Data MiningConcepts and Techniques Third Edition”. [2] Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse University of Kansas “Handling Missing Attribute Values”. [3] http://cis.poly.edu/~mleung/FRE7851/f07/naiveBay esianClassifier.pdf [4] http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~10601b/slides/NBayes.pdf [5] http://mlwiki.org/index.php/Smoothing_for_Language _Models [6] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases- conditions/heart-disease/symptoms-causes/syc- 20353118. [7] https://developers.google.com/machine- learning/crash-course/classification/precision-and- recall. [8] https://www.medicinenet.com/symptoms_of_serious_ diseases_and_health_problems/article.htm#15_signs_a nd_symptoms_of_a_heart_attack [9] Sellappan Palaniappan, Rafiah Awang, “Intelligent Heart Disease Prediction System Using Data Mining Techniques”. [10] http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~eamonn/CE/Bayesian%20Cl assification%20withInsect_examples.pdf