Key drivers of population change and population forecasts in NSW. Presented at .id's launch event for recently updated Small Area Forecast information (.id SAFi) in Sydney.

1. Key drivers of population change and
population forecasts in NSW
August 2016

2. .id are population experts (demographers, spatial analysts,
forecasters, urban planners)
.id has Australia’s largest team of population forecasters
We understand how cities are growing and changing
We quantify this knowledge into detailed population
forecasts
Our clients use this knowledge to decide where and when to
invest in infrastructure, services and marketing effort
Over 1.5 million people access .id’s Demographic Resource
Centre every year
We provide the evidence-base for 300 councils Australia-
wide and numerous public and private enterprises
Who are we?

3. Introducing SAFi
Population growth trends: The Return of the Premier State?
Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level
Questions
Agenda

4. Population forecasts for New South Wales
Small Area Forecast information

5. Introducing SAFi
SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast
Available for Vic, NSW, ACT & WA.
Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population –
macro and the micro level.
Quantifies the demand for services across geographies and over time.
Reflects development activity at a local area level
Regularly updated
Proven over 5 years – third iteration for New South Wales and ACT

6. What SAFi can tell you?
Population
Dwellings and household types
Single year of age (0-85+ year olds)
Single year of forecast period – 2011 to 2041
Micro-geography – 8,650 SA1-derived areas

7. Source: id, SAFi
SAFi is granular….8,650 small areas

8. Who we work with…
300 Local Governments and …

9. Summary of methodology
State
Regions
Metro
regions
Demographic
components
Housing
components
Determine supply
/ demand balance
Household
characteristics
Amelioration
modelling
Small
areas
Housing
components
Demographic
components
Household
characteristics
Fertility rates
Mortality rates
Migration typology
Pop. In non-private dwellings
Relationship in household by age
Household yield
Dwelling additions
Demolitions
Vacancy rates
Tops-down
Bottoms-up
Key drivers for total pop:
Dwelling additions
- Building approvals
- Aerial photography
- Cordell database & UDP
- Council input (Sites, Strategy
and local knowledge)
- Land use changes

10. Population growth trends
Ageing of the population
Changing housing consumption
Three Growth Markets
Sub-state population trends
Conclusions
The Return of the Premier State

11. Population growth trends

12. Sydney is a major attractor of overseas migrants
NSW loses population to other States, especially to Queensland
and to a lesser degree Victoria
NSW is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas
migration and more births have supplemented the population
under 40
Births continue to outweigh deaths, but less natural increase over
time, and more older people
How does NSW’s population grow?

13. Average annual population growth,
Census periods, Major States, 1976-2015*
*Data to December 2015
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-15
Averageannualgrowthrate
Period
Australia NSW
Vic. Qld
SA WA

14. Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
Annual population growth rates, Major
States, 2000-2015
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annualgrowthrate
Year to June 30
Australia NSW
Vic SA
Qld WA

15. Net overseas migration has increased and the share to NSW has
increased as Western Australia and Queensland have waned
NSW is losing less population to other States, especially
Queensland and Western Australia
NSW has a solid investment pipeline, which is attractive to
migrants given the fall in construction in resource states
NSW has a stable political environment, with a handsome Premier
Fertility rates increased, leading to a greater gain in births
The return of the Premier State…..
What has changed?

16. Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
Net overseas migration, New South Wales,
1976-2015
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
ShareofAustralia
Netoverseasmigration
Year ending June 30
Net overseas Migration Share of Australia

17. Net overseas migration by age,
New South Wales, 2006-2011
Source: .id – SAFi (historical population reconciliation)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Persons
Age group

18. Net interstate migration, New South
Wales, 1976-2015
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
-40,000
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Netinterstatemigration
Year ending June 30

19. Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008
ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
Fertility rates and number of births
New South Wales, 1972-2015
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
TotalFertilityRate
Births
Year
Births Total Fertility Rate

20. Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
ABS, Deaths Australia
Life expectancy, New South Wales,
1981-2014
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Lifeexpectancy
Age group
Males
Females

21. Ageing of the population….

22. 0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Persons
Age group
1971
1981
1991
2001
Population by five year age group,
New South Wales, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

23. Pop. change by five year age group,
New South Wales, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group

24. Population change by five year age group,
New South Wales, 2001-2011
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Persons
Age group

25. Changing patterns of household formation and the
dwelling demand / supply equation
Changing housing consumption

26. Average household size, NSW and
major regions, 1981-2011
Source: ABS, Census
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Averagehouseholdsize
Year ending June 30
New South Wales
Metro Sydney
Regional NSW

27. Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics 2015;
ABS, Building Approvals Australia
Note: 2016 data based on 11 months of data
Population growth & building approvals,
New South Wales, 1991-2016
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Number
Year ending June 30
Population Change
Building approvals

28. Difference in pop and households at 2011, comparing
2011 to 2006 household relationship data, Sydney
Source: id, unpublished research; ABS, Census
Population by position in household
Relative change
in population
Relative change
in households
Relative change in
household size
Partner in two parent family -34,671 -17,335 + 0.06
Child or 'dependent' in two parent
family 3,893 - -
Couple without children -56,154 -33,912 + 0.04
Parent in one parent family 12,411 12,411 + 0.00
Child or 'dependent' in one parent
family 24,940 - -
Person in other family 46,335 4,530 + 0.44
Lone person 12,516 12,516 + 0.00
Person in group household -10,304 -5,731 + 0.05
Non-private dwellings -1,034 0 -
Difference 0 -27,520 + 0.04
Changes are driven by both economic and socio-demographic considerations….
Person in other family 46,335 4,530 + 0.44

29. Growth of persons in ‘Other Families’, 2006-2011,
Sydney
Source: id, unpublished research;
ABS, Census
Change in population
More than +75 persons
+40 to +75 persons
+15 to +40 persons
-15 to +15 persons
-40 to -15 persons
More loss than -40 persons
Liverpool
+ 4,638
persons
Lower North Shore
+ 435 persons
City / Eastern Suburbs
+ 1,187 persons
Fairfield
+ 6,497
persons
Blacktown
+ 8,599
persons
Campbelltown
+ 4,199 persons
Bankstown
+ 4,493
persons

30. Persons in other families as a share of population
growth, 2006-2011, Sydney LGAs
Source: id, unpublished research; ABS, Census
LGA
Change in
persons in
other families
Share of
pop. growth
Campbelltown 4,199 90.6%
Fairfield 6,497 62.7%
Penrith 3,335 39.1%
Hawkesbury 853 32.4%
Bankstown 4,493 29.8%
Auburn 2,590 26.0%
Blacktown 8,599 25.7%
Liverpool 4,638 25.5%
Rockdale 1,948 25.2%
Wollondilly 877 24.1%
LGA
Change in
persons in
other families
Share of
pop. growth
Hunters Hill -60 -25.4%
Leichhardt -219 -5.0%
North Sydney -111 -2.1%
Mosman -27 -1.5%
Manly -12 -0.3%
Randwick 4 0.0%
Sydney 114 0.6%
Waverley 142 3.2%
Warringah 735 7.3%
Ku-ring-gai 753 7.4%
Highest share by LGA Lowest share by LGA

31. 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036
Dwellinggain
Census period
Established
Greenfield
Source: ABS, Census; id, SAFi
Dwelling growth, established versus
greenfield, Sydney, 1991-2036
Historical Forecast

32. Three Growth Markets

33. Forecast population growth by age,
New South Wales, 2011-2031
Source: id, SAFi
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Differencebyage
Age group

34. Population by five year age group,
New South Wales, 2011-2031
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Population
Age group
2011 2021 2031

35. Age structure comparison
Selected countries and NSW, 2035
Source: id, SAFi; UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012
Revision: Medium Fertility Series
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Persons
Age group
NSW
Australia
Canada
Japan

36. Regional and local changes

37. Population growth by typology area,
New South Wales, 1991-2041
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Annualgrowthrate
Year ending June 30
Inner City Middle Suburbs Outer Suburbs Regional Coastal Regional Inland

38. Average annual population change
More gain than 2.5%
1.0% to 2.5%
0.3% to 1.0%
-0.3% to 0.3%
-0.3% to -1.0%
More loss than -1.0%
Population growth by LGA,
New South Wales, 2011-2021
Source: id, SAFi
Camden
Auburn
Murray
Shoalhaven
Yass
Valley
Tamworth
Greater
Taree
Tweed
Maitland
Dubbo
See
Sydney
Inset
Sydney
Botany
Bay
Lane
Cove
Brewarrina
Conargo

39. Source: id, SAFi
Population growth by LGA,
New South Wales, 2021-2031
See
Sydney
Inset
Average annual population change
More gain than 2.5%
1.0% to 2.5%
0.3% to 1.0%
-0.3% to 0.3%
-0.3% to -1.0%
More loss than -1.0%
Camden
Wollondilly
Auburn
Murray
Shoalhaven
Yass
Valley
Tamworth
Greater
Taree
Tweed
Coffs
Harbour Pittwater
Maitland

40. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Population
Year as at June 30
Blacktown
The Hills Shire
Penrith
Wyong
Hornsby
Forecast Population growth, Selected Outer
Northern and Western LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Regional Population Growth
Historical Forecast

41. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Population
Year as at June 30
Camden
Liverpool
Sutherland Shire
Fairfield
Bankstown
Forecast Population growth, Selected Southern
and South-Western LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Regional Population Growth
Historical Forecast

42. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Population
Year as at June 30
Sydney
Parramatta
Ryde
Canterbury
Auburn
Forecast Population growth, Selected Inner
and Middle Suburban LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Regional Population Growth
Historical Forecast

43. The final word

44. Conclusions
There has been a transformation of New South Wales’ population prospects over the
last decade, driven by high rates of overseas migration and higher fertility
Population growth is now likely to be higher and more ‘youthful’ than previously
expected, but the challenge of ageing remains
Growth has continued in established parts of Sydney in the past 5 years and there
are vast numbers of sites in the pipeline
Growth is assumed to hold up in coastal areas in the future
Change is driven by economic factors as well as social components (higher birth
rates / more stable household size
Volatility means timely updates are critical

45. Placemaker