.id's demographic analysis of rapidly changing population trends in Victoria and Melbourne, both now and in the future. Presented at the launch event for .id's Small Area Forecast information (.id SAFi) in Melbourne.

1. .id SAFi Victoria launch event 23 November 2017

2. Victoria’s population
6.33
MILLION
7.64
MILLION
8.87
MILLION

3. Agenda
Introducing SAFi
Population growth trends: Marvellous Melbourne
Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level
Questions
Food & drink

4. Small
Area
Forecast
information

5. What is SAFi
SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast
Quantifies the demand for services across geographies and over time
Available for VIC, NSW, ACT & WA
Reflects development activity at a local level
Regularly updated
Proven over 12 years – fifth iteration for Victoria
Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population – macro
and the micro level.

6. What SAFi can tell you?
Dwellings
Population
Household types
Age structure by single years (0-90+ year olds)
Breakdown by male/female
For every year from 2011 to 2041
For any geographic unit from state to
7,185 SA1-derived areas

7. SAFi is granular….
7,185 small areas
Population change by SAFi
area, 2016-2026, Melbourne
Source: .id SAFi, 2017
-168 to -25
-25 to 250
250 to 500
500 to 1,000
1,000 to 2,000
2,000 to 10,000

8. We work closely with 300 councils…

9. …and community builders

10. dwellings
How do we build SAFi?
migration
household types
How do we build SAFi?

11. Small areas
Building
approvals
Property
databases
Council
input
Land use
changes
Aerial
photography
household types
dwellings
migration
Utilities &
developers

12. Identify
dwellings
and timings

13. Identify
dwellings
and timings

14. Construction & development timing - Tarneit
October
2016

15. Marvellous Melbourne
Marvellous Melbourne – Reborn?
Victorian Population Growth Trends
Ageing of the population
Changing housing consumption
Three growth markets
Local and regional changes
Questions

16. Marvellous Melbourne reborn?
With thanks to George Augustus Sala from 1885
And Graeme Davison
It was on the 17th of March, in the present year of
Grace, 1885, that I made my first entrance, shortly
before high noon, into Marvellous Melbourne.

17. Marvellous Melbourne reborn?
Melbourne on the March – its growing urban form

18. 0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Population
Year ending June 30
Melbourne’s population through time
Gold
Rush
Marvellous
Melbourne
1890s
downturn
Post-war
baby and
migration
boom
1990s
recession
Marvellous
Melbourne
reborn

19. 1857
The growth of
Melbourne

20. 1857 1890
The growth of
Melbourne

21. 1857 1890 1920
The growth of
Melbourne

22. 1857 1890 1920 1945
The growth of
Melbourne

23. 1857 1890 1920 1945 1971
The growth of
Melbourne

24. 1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996
The growth of
Melbourne

25. 1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016
The growth of
Melbourne

26. 1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016 2026
The growth of
Melbourne

27. 1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016 2026 2041
The growth of
Melbourne

28. The changing
population
centre of
Melbourne
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2011
2006
2016
2036
2041
2031
2026
2021

29. Marvellous Melbourne reborn?

30. Victorian population growth trends

31. How has Victoria’s population grown?
Over 1,100,000 new residents in Victoria in the last decade. Similar number to gain in
Victoria between 1971 and 2001
Melbourne has been a magnet for overseas and interstate migrants
Historically Victoria loses population to other states in net terms, although in the last fifteen
years it has gained in net terms and has gained from all states in the last few years
Victoria is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas migration gain and births
have supplemented the population under 40. Med age 2001 – 34.9, Med age 2016 – 35.9
Births continue to exceed deaths, but less natural increase over time, and more older people

32. Average annual population growth,
Major States, Census periods, 1976-2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-16
Averageannualgrowthrate
Period
Australia NSW
Vic. Qld
SA WA
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

33. Annual population growth rates,
Major States, 2000-2017
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Annualgrowthrate
Year to June 30
Australia
NSW
Vic
SA
Qld
WA
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

34. Net overseas migration, Victoria, 1976-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
ShareofAustralia
Netoverseasmigration
Year ending June 30
Net overseas migration Share of Australia

35. Net interstate migration, Victoria, 1972-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Netinterstatemigration
Year ending June 30

36. Fertility rates and number of births
Victoria, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
TotalFertilityRate
Births
Year
Births Total Fertility Rate Assumed trend

37. Ageing of the population

38. Population change by five year age group,
Victoria, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Persons
Age group

39. Population change by five year age group,
Victoria, 2001-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; .id, SAFi, 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Persons
Age group

40. Net overseas and interstate migration by age,
Victoria, 2011-2016
Source:.id, SAFi, 2017
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Persons
Age group
Overseas
Interstate

41. Changing housing consumption

42. Population growth & building approvals,
Victoria, 1991-2018*
Source: ABS: Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; ABS: Building Approvals Australia, 2017
* 2017 population based on 9
months of data
* Approvals lagged by 12 months
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Number
Year ending June 30
Population change
Building approvals

43. Average household size,
Victoria and Major Regions, 1981-2016
Source: ABS, Census, various; concorded to 31 Melbourne LGAs
2.300
2.400
2.500
2.600
2.700
2.800
2.900
3.000
3.100
Averagehouseholdsize
Census Year
Victoria
Metro Melbourne
Regional Vic

44. Dwelling growth, established versus greenfield,
Melbourne, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Census; .id, SAFi, 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41
Dwellinggrowth
Census period
Infill / major sites
Greenfield / Rural

45. Three growth markets

46. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group
Forecast population growth by age,
Victoria, 2016-2036
Source: id, SAFi, 2017

47. Forecast population growth by age, Victoria,
2016-2036, comparing 2015 with 2017 forecasts
Source: id, SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group
2017 Forecasts
2015 Forecasts

48. Comparison of pop growth by age,
Victoria, 2016-2036
Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Population Projections, Australia Cat. No. 3222.0 (Series B); Victoria in Future, 2016
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group
SAFi
Vic in Future
ABS

49. Local and regional changes

50. -1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Annualgrowthrate
Year ending June 30
Inner City
Middle Suburbs
Outer Suburbs
Fringe & Peri-Urban
Forecast population growth by typology area,
Victoria, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017
historical forecast

51. -1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Annualgrowthrate
Year ending June 30
Regional Centre - Inland
Regional Centre - Coastal
Coastal
Small town and rural
Forecast population growth by typology area,
Victoria, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017
historical forecast

52. Forecast population growth by LGA,
Victoria, 2016-2036
Source: id,
SAFi, 2017
Murray
Melbourne
See
Inset
Whittlesea
Hume
Casey
Wyndham
Melton
Manningham
Cardinia
Greater
Geelong
Greater
Bendigo
Mitchell
Baw
Baw
Golden
Plains
Ballarat
Wodonga

53. Largest suburbs in Melbourne, 2016 and 2036
2016
No. Area Population
1 Melbourne 55,584
2 Craigieburn 54,240
3 Reservoir 53,779
4 Point Cook 52,638
5 Berwick 49,822
2036
No. Area Population
1 Tarneit 126,328
2 Melbourne 123,533
3 Craigieburn 81,374
4 Sunbury 80,384
5 Werribee 71,673

54. Forecast
population
growth by
SA2, Greater
Melbourne,
2016-2036
Source: .id SAFi, 2017

55. The last word

56. Conclusions
Increased population growth is having a profound impact on the speed of urban
development in Melbourne
The impact of ageing has been offset with huge numbers of younger people
entering the population
Development in established Melbourne has increased across the City and we
appear to be heading down the Sydney path, but there are policy decisions to be
made re: greenfield land
The infrastructure legacy of the 1880s is there to see, let’s hope Marvellous
Melbourne reborn can deliver similar benefits
Given the current pace of development, monitoring and responding to change is
more important than ever

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