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Quantitative Analysis
For Management
ELEVENTH EDITION
BARRY RENDER
Charles Harwood Professor of Management Science
Graduate School of Business, Rollins College
RALPH M. STAIR, JR.
Professor of Information and Management Sciences,
Florida State University
MICHAEL E. HANNA
Professor of Decision Sciences,
University of Houston—Clear Lake
To my wife and sons – BR
To Lila and Leslie – RMS
To Susan, Mickey, and Katie – MEH
Editorial Director: Sally Yagan
Editor in Chief: Eric Svendsen
Senior Acquisitions Editor: Chuck Synovec
Product Development Manager: Ashley Santora
Director of Marketing: Patrice Lumumba Jones
Senior Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren
Marketing Assistant: Melinda Jones
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Text Font: 10/12 Times
Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and
reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear
on appropriate page within text.
Microsoft® and Windows® are registered trademarks of the
Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries.
Screen shots and icons reprinted with permission from the
Microsoft Corporation. This book is not sponsored or
endorsed by or affiliated with the Microsoft Corporation.
Copyright © 2012, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2000 Pearson Education,
Inc., publishing as Prentice Hall, One Lake Street,
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458. All rights reserved.
Manufactured in the United States of America. This publi-
cation is protected by Copyright, and permission should be
obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited repro-
duction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy-
ing, recording, or likewise. To obtain permission(s) to use
material from this work, please submit a written request to
Pearson Education, Inc., Permissions Department, One Lake
Street, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458.
Many of the designations by manufacturers and seller to
distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where
those designations appear in this book, and the publisher was
aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been
printed in initial caps or all caps.
CIP data for this title is available on file at the Library of
Congress
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-214911-2
ISBN-10: 0-13-214911-7
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
iii
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Barry Render Professor Emeritus, the Charles Harwood
Distinguished Professor of management sci-
ence at the Roy E. Crummer Graduate School of Business at
Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida.
He received his MS in Operations Research and his PhD in
Quantitative Analysis at the University of
Cincinnati. He previously taught at George Washington
University, the University of New Orleans,
Boston University, and George Mason University, where he held
the Mason Foundation Professorship
in Decision Sciences and was Chair of the Decision Science
Department. Dr. Render has also worked
in the aerospace industry for General Electric, McDonnell
Douglas, and NASA.
Dr. Render has coauthored 10 textbooks published by Prentice
Hall, including Managerial
Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Operations Management,
Principles of Operations
Management, Service Management, Introduction to Management
Science, and Cases and Readings
in Management Science. Dr. Render’s more than 100 articles on
a variety of management topics
have appeared in Decision Sciences, Production and Operations
Management, Interfaces,
Information and Management, Journal of Management
Information Systems, Socio-Economic
Planning Sciences, IIE
Solution
s and Operations Management Review, among others.
Dr. Render has been honored as an AACSB Fellow, and he was
named a Senior Fulbright
Scholar in 1982 and again in 1993. He was twice vice president
of the Decision Science Institute
Southeast Region and served as software review editor for
Decision Line from 1989 to 1995. He has
also served as editor of the New York Times Operations
Management special issues from 1996 to
2001. From 1984 to 1993, Dr. Render was president of
Management Service Associates of Virginia,
Inc., whose technology clients included the FBI; the U.S. Navy;
Fairfax County, Virginia and C&P
Telephone.
Dr. Render has taught operations management courses in
Rollins College’s MBA and
Executive MBA programs. He has received that school’s Welsh
Award as leading professor and was
selected by Roosevelt University as the 1996 recipient of the St.
Claire Drake Award
for Outstanding Scholarship. In 2005, Dr. Render received the
Rollins College MBA Student Award
for Best Overall Course, and in 2009 was named Professor of
the Year by full-time MBA students.
Ralph Stair is Professor Emeritus at Florida State University.
He earned a BS in chemical engineer-
ing from Purdue University and an MBA from Tulane
University. Under the guidance of Ken
Ramsing and Alan Eliason, he received a PhD in operations
management from the University of
Oregon. He has taught at the University of Oregon, the
University of Washington, the University of
New Orleans, and Florida State University.
He has twice taught in Florida State University’s Study Abroad
Program in London. Over the
years, his teaching has been concentrated in the areas of
information systems, operations research,
and operations management.
Dr. Stair is a member of several academic organizations,
including the Decision Sciences
Institute and INFORMS, and he regularly participates at
national meetings. He has published
numerous articles and books, including Managerial Decision
Modeling with Spreadsheets,
Introduction to Management Science, Cases and Readings in
Management Science, Production and
Operations Management: A Self-Correction Approach,
Fundamentals of Information Systems,
Principles of Information Systems, Introduction to Information
Systems, Computers in Today’s
World, Principles of Data Processing, Learning to Live with
Computers, Programming in BASIC,
Essentials of BASIC Programming, Essentials of FORTRAN
Programming, and Essentials of
COBOL Programming. Dr. Stair divides his time between
Florida and Colorado. He enjoys skiing,
biking, kayaking, and other outdoor activities.
iv ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Michael E. Hanna is Professor of Decision Sciences at the
University of Houston–Clear Lake
(UHCL). He holds a BA in Economics, an MS in Mathematics,
and a PhD in Operations Research
from Texas Tech University. For more than 25 years, he has
been teaching courses in statistics, man-
agement science, forecasting, and other quantitative methods.
His dedication to teaching has been
recognized with the Beta Alpha Psi teaching award in 1995 and
the Outstanding Educator Award in
2006 from the Southwest Decision Sciences Institute (SWDSI).
Dr. Hanna has authored textbooks in management science and
quantitative methods, has pub-
lished numerous articles and professional papers, and has served
on the Editorial Advisory Board of
Computers and Operations Research. In 1996, the UHCL
Chapter of Beta Gamma Sigma presented
him with the Outstanding Scholar Award.
Dr. Hanna is very active in the Decision Sciences Institute,
having served on the Innovative
Education Committee, the Regional Advisory Committee, and
the Nominating Committee. He has
served two terms on the board of directors of the Decision
Sciences Institute (DSI) and as regionally
elected vice president of DSI. For SWDSI, he has held several
positions, including president, and he
received the SWDSI Distinguished Service Award in 1997. For
overall service to the profession and
to the university, he received the UHCL President’s
Distinguished Service Award in 2001.
CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1
CHAPTER 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 21
CHAPTER 3 Decision Analysis 69
CHAPTER 4 Regression Models 115
CHAPTER 5 Forecasting 153
CHAPTER 6 Inventory Control Models 195
CHAPTER 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical
and Computer Methods 249
CHAPTER 8 Linear Programming Applications 307
CHAPTER 9 Transportation and Assignment Models 341
CHAPTER 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming,
and Nonlinear Programming 395
CHAPTER 11 Network Models 429
CHAPTER 12 Project Management 459
CHAPTER 13 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory
Models 499
CHAPTER 14 Simulation Modeling 533
CHAPTER 15 Markov Analysis 573
CHAPTER 16 Statistical Quality Control 601
ONLINE MODULES
1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1
2 Dynamic Programming M2-1
3 Decision Theory and the Normal
Distribution M3-1
4 Game Theory M4-1
5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants and
Matrices M5-1
6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
7 Linear Programming: The Simplex
Method M7-1
v
BRIEF CONTENTS
This page intentionally left blank
PREFACE xv
CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative
Analysis 1
1.1 Introduction 2
1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? 2
1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 3
Defining the Problem 3
Developing a Model 3
Acquiring Input Data 4
Developing a

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Quantitative Analysis for Management 11th Edition

  • 1. Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo Quantitative Analysis For Management ELEVENTH EDITION BARRY RENDER Charles Harwood Professor of Management Science Graduate School of Business, Rollins College RALPH M. STAIR, JR. Professor of Information and Management Sciences, Florida State University MICHAEL E. HANNA Professor of Decision Sciences, University of Houston—Clear Lake To my wife and sons – BR
  • 2. To Lila and Leslie – RMS To Susan, Mickey, and Katie – MEH Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Eric Svendsen Senior Acquisitions Editor: Chuck Synovec Product Development Manager: Ashley Santora Director of Marketing: Patrice Lumumba Jones Senior Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Assistant: Melinda Jones Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Project Manager: Mary Kate Murray Senior Operations Specialist: Arnold Vila Operations Specialist: Cathleen Petersen Senior Art Director: Janet Slowik Art Director: Steve Frim Text and Cover Designer: Wee Design Group Manager, Rights and Permissions: Hessa Albader Cover Art: Shutterstock Media Project Manager, Editorial: Allison Longley Media Project Manager, Production: John Cassar Full-Service Project Management: PreMediaGlobal Composition: PreMediaGlobal Printer/Binder: Edwards Brothers Cover Printer: Lehigh-Phoenix Color/Hagerstown
  • 3. Text Font: 10/12 Times Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on appropriate page within text. Microsoft® and Windows® are registered trademarks of the Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries. Screen shots and icons reprinted with permission from the Microsoft Corporation. This book is not sponsored or endorsed by or affiliated with the Microsoft Corporation. Copyright © 2012, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2000 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Prentice Hall, One Lake Street, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. This publi- cation is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited repro- duction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy- ing, recording, or likewise. To obtain permission(s) to use material from this work, please submit a written request to Pearson Education, Inc., Permissions Department, One Lake Street, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458. Many of the designations by manufacturers and seller to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and the publisher was aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been printed in initial caps or all caps. CIP data for this title is available on file at the Library of Congress ISBN-13: 978-0-13-214911-2 ISBN-10: 0-13-214911-7
  • 4. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 iii ABOUT THE AUTHORS Barry Render Professor Emeritus, the Charles Harwood Distinguished Professor of management sci- ence at the Roy E. Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida. He received his MS in Operations Research and his PhD in Quantitative Analysis at the University of Cincinnati. He previously taught at George Washington University, the University of New Orleans, Boston University, and George Mason University, where he held the Mason Foundation Professorship in Decision Sciences and was Chair of the Decision Science Department. Dr. Render has also worked in the aerospace industry for General Electric, McDonnell Douglas, and NASA. Dr. Render has coauthored 10 textbooks published by Prentice Hall, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Operations Management, Principles of Operations Management, Service Management, Introduction to Management Science, and Cases and Readings in Management Science. Dr. Render’s more than 100 articles on a variety of management topics have appeared in Decision Sciences, Production and Operations Management, Interfaces, Information and Management, Journal of Management
  • 5. Information Systems, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, IIE Solution s and Operations Management Review, among others. Dr. Render has been honored as an AACSB Fellow, and he was named a Senior Fulbright Scholar in 1982 and again in 1993. He was twice vice president of the Decision Science Institute Southeast Region and served as software review editor for Decision Line from 1989 to 1995. He has also served as editor of the New York Times Operations Management special issues from 1996 to 2001. From 1984 to 1993, Dr. Render was president of Management Service Associates of Virginia, Inc., whose technology clients included the FBI; the U.S. Navy; Fairfax County, Virginia and C&P Telephone. Dr. Render has taught operations management courses in Rollins College’s MBA and Executive MBA programs. He has received that school’s Welsh Award as leading professor and was
  • 6. selected by Roosevelt University as the 1996 recipient of the St. Claire Drake Award for Outstanding Scholarship. In 2005, Dr. Render received the Rollins College MBA Student Award for Best Overall Course, and in 2009 was named Professor of the Year by full-time MBA students. Ralph Stair is Professor Emeritus at Florida State University. He earned a BS in chemical engineer- ing from Purdue University and an MBA from Tulane University. Under the guidance of Ken Ramsing and Alan Eliason, he received a PhD in operations management from the University of Oregon. He has taught at the University of Oregon, the University of Washington, the University of New Orleans, and Florida State University. He has twice taught in Florida State University’s Study Abroad Program in London. Over the years, his teaching has been concentrated in the areas of information systems, operations research, and operations management. Dr. Stair is a member of several academic organizations, including the Decision Sciences
  • 7. Institute and INFORMS, and he regularly participates at national meetings. He has published numerous articles and books, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Introduction to Management Science, Cases and Readings in Management Science, Production and Operations Management: A Self-Correction Approach, Fundamentals of Information Systems, Principles of Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, Computers in Today’s World, Principles of Data Processing, Learning to Live with Computers, Programming in BASIC, Essentials of BASIC Programming, Essentials of FORTRAN Programming, and Essentials of COBOL Programming. Dr. Stair divides his time between Florida and Colorado. He enjoys skiing, biking, kayaking, and other outdoor activities. iv ABOUT THE AUTHORS Michael E. Hanna is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Houston–Clear Lake (UHCL). He holds a BA in Economics, an MS in Mathematics,
  • 8. and a PhD in Operations Research from Texas Tech University. For more than 25 years, he has been teaching courses in statistics, man- agement science, forecasting, and other quantitative methods. His dedication to teaching has been recognized with the Beta Alpha Psi teaching award in 1995 and the Outstanding Educator Award in 2006 from the Southwest Decision Sciences Institute (SWDSI). Dr. Hanna has authored textbooks in management science and quantitative methods, has pub- lished numerous articles and professional papers, and has served on the Editorial Advisory Board of Computers and Operations Research. In 1996, the UHCL Chapter of Beta Gamma Sigma presented him with the Outstanding Scholar Award. Dr. Hanna is very active in the Decision Sciences Institute, having served on the Innovative Education Committee, the Regional Advisory Committee, and the Nominating Committee. He has served two terms on the board of directors of the Decision Sciences Institute (DSI) and as regionally elected vice president of DSI. For SWDSI, he has held several positions, including president, and he
  • 9. received the SWDSI Distinguished Service Award in 1997. For overall service to the profession and to the university, he received the UHCL President’s Distinguished Service Award in 2001. CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1 CHAPTER 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 21 CHAPTER 3 Decision Analysis 69 CHAPTER 4 Regression Models 115 CHAPTER 5 Forecasting 153 CHAPTER 6 Inventory Control Models 195 CHAPTER 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods 249 CHAPTER 8 Linear Programming Applications 307 CHAPTER 9 Transportation and Assignment Models 341
  • 10. CHAPTER 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming 395 CHAPTER 11 Network Models 429 CHAPTER 12 Project Management 459 CHAPTER 13 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models 499 CHAPTER 14 Simulation Modeling 533 CHAPTER 15 Markov Analysis 573 CHAPTER 16 Statistical Quality Control 601 ONLINE MODULES 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1 3 Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution M3-1
  • 11. 4 Game Theory M4-1 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices M5-1 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex Method M7-1 v BRIEF CONTENTS This page intentionally left blank PREFACE xv CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1
  • 12. 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? 2 1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 3 Defining the Problem 3 Developing a Model 3 Acquiring Input Data 4 Developing a