Government
Government Statistics
Sources
Debt Clock
FED Money Supply
CBO
OMB
Treasury
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
https://www.cbo.gov/about/overview
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
https://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx
Government Statistics
Government Research Issues
Budget Deficit
Off-budget items can create discrepancies (USPS and GSEs)
National Debt
May not be analogous to household debt since fiscal policy
necessitates spending inverse to the business cycle.
Some debt is intra-governmental (SSA & FED)
Raw value may be less important than percentage of GDP.
Government Statistics
Government Research Issues
Tax Burden
Progressive vs. Regressive with income (sales vs. income tax)
Payroll tax is split between employer/employee but the employer
may pass burden onto employee in the form of a lower wage.
Excise taxes are imposed on businesses but they may be able to
pass onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
Some groups are better able and more incentivized to avoid
(or evade) taxes.
Government Statistics
Government Research Issues
Measuring Money
Money Supply: M1 & M2 categories.
Monetary Policy
By 1990s the FED stopped targeting the money supply.
Monetary expansion shows up in FED balance sheet.
Inflation Measurements: CPI
BLS creates a “Market Basket” to compute CPI monthly.
Annualized CPI?
CPI-U vs. CPI-W
May fail to account for:
Qualitative changes in products.
Substitution toward cheaper but similar products.
Cost of owning a home (post 1983 use rental value)
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Government Statistics
Government Research Issues
Military Expenditures
Overstated since it includes “nation building” expenditures.
Understated as some “defense” expenditures are excluded.
Economics of War
Direct costs understate true economic costs.
Assessing true cost-benefit of war requires counter-factual
computations that are highly unreliable.
Wartime deaths estimates have a broad continuum.
Welfare Expenditures
Budget includes in-kind benefits such as health care, overstating
actual money received by recipients.
Defining “welfare” is debatable:
Means tested transfer payments or benefits to all citizens?
Business Statistics
Business Statistics
EDGAR
Provides financial statements of publically traded corporation in the U.S.
Company Size?
Sales
High sales may be misleading due to pass-through production.
Appropriate in researching market control in a certain industry.
Assets
Rarely bought and sold so depreciation after purchase must be estimated.
Market Value
Stock market assessment of value.
Volatile measurement.
Appropriate when researching corporate takeovers.
Profits
Appropriate in researching likely success of a firm.
Employment
Less ambiguous than sales or asset val.
2. hold debt since fiscal policy
necessitates spending inverse to the business cycle.
-governmental (SSA & FED)
Government Statistics
Government Research Issues
urden
employer
may pass burden onto employee in the form of a lower wage.
able
to
pass onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
(or evade) taxes.
4. Government Research Issues
ry Expenditures
-benefit of war requires counter-factual
computations that are highly unreliable.
-kind benefits such as health care,
overstating
actual money received by recipients.
ng “welfare” is debatable:
Business Statistics
5. Business Statistics
in the U.S.
gh sales may be misleading due to pass-through
production.
industry.
be estimated.
of value.
orated or not.
6. less sales, assets, or market value.
http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
https://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/
http://fortune.com/fortune500/list/filtered?sortBy=employees&f
irst500
Business Statistics
-trust Legislation
“monopolizing” and/or
“substantially lessening competition”
rements:
top 4-8 firms.
when evaluating mergers.
-trust
investigation.
7. fail within 5 years.
unemployment insurance records).
-barrier
industries that stop and start
frequently.
lower.
rstated depending on the
denominator.
but yield to shareholders is closer to 4%.
https://www.ftc.gov/
http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/
https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm
Business Statistics
by price and representing ≈
25% of the market.
80% of the market.
8. AQ: IT heavy index consisting of over 3000 stocks
weighted by market cap.
may not be as widely
utilized (i.e. Wilshire 5000)
is-Random Walk Theory.
-Throwing Contest
39.
ssWeek found only 4 out of 900 funds consistently
stayed in the top quarter of funds
between 2001-2006.
regularly beat the market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/
9. Labor Statistics
-Time” and “Discouraged Workers”
-to-month fluctuations (sampling
error of 0.12%)
-to-month fluctuations.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
Labor Statistics
10. wage increase did
not adversely impact jobs.
-wage workers (wage compression)
growth vs. diminishing jobs.
-1973 data came from direct union reports
-1973 data comes from a BLS survey.
to “union or employee
association similar to a union”, increasing union affiliation.
12. rrower than survey data and uses individual
rather than
household collection.
contribution plans, social
security, etc..
able the wealth
distribution.
(total wealth) is appropriate.
(e.g. stocks and bonds) is
appropriate.
13. $24,000
ue of home equity.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/scf/scfindex.htm
http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Personal-Wealth-
Statistics
http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/
Wealth, Income, & Poverty
indicates that in 2016 the top 5%
of households
made over $225,251 and the top 20% over $121,018.
$150,000 annual income or
1 million in net worth would make them “Rich”.
her income segments that live in affluent areas may not
feel “Rich”.
14. poor.
(e.g. raising children in single-parent households).
raise to elevate one
to a higher percentile.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/income-
poverty/p60-259.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/151427/Americans-Set-Rich-
Threshold-150-000-Annual-Income.aspx
Wealth, Income, & Poverty
--FRED: Real GDP Growth Per Capita
--FRED: Full-Time Median Real Earnings
--FRED: Real Median Household Income
--FRED: Real Median Family Income
-family households, distorting “typical” incomes
of households.
15. 1973 to 2.5 in 2010)
suggesting family members may be better off with fewer
members for a particular
income.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/time-
series/demo/households-historical-time-series.html
Wealth, Income, & Poverty
--Current Population Survey
—FRED: Poverty Count
—FRED: Poverty Rate
he1960s as an absolute standard
(adjusted only for inflation).
generally leveled off since.
disposable income, by 2009 it
was one-quarter.
-half standard was maintained, the poverty rate would
have increased since 1965.
16. -cash government programs (e.g. food stamps,
school meals, housing subsidies,
and medical care).
-third.
senior citizen poverty).
2011)
-kind benefits and deducts taxes, child support
paid, alimony, and work expenses.
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publication
s/2017/demo/P60-259.pdf
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PEAAUS00000A647NCEN
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPAAUS00000A156NCEN
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publication
s/2018/demo/p60-265.pdf
The
National Economy
National Economy Issues
17. d services each quarter.
extrapolation to
complete data set.
e underground Economy
the economy.
of that required for
reported production.
reported
production.
http://www.bea.gov/
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-
economist/january-2015/underground-economy#table
18. National Economy Issues
virtue or aesthetic
qualities of production.
adation, inequality,
crime, loss of leisure
time, public infrastructure, volunteer activities, and housework.
values for the
amount of goods a given unit of currency can buy.
(IMF 2017).
(IMF 2017).
rates, 1952 per
capita income in
19. China would have been $279, an unsustainably low figure.
https://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2017-gdp-by-
country-data-and-charts
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-growth-rate
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
National Economy Issues
y in export and import data.
place.
20. -home work may overestimate productivity.
changes in
productivity.
http://data.imf.org/?sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-
A05A558D9A42
http://www.bls.gov/lpc/
National Economy Issues
consumer
expenditures.
21. Growth
(e.g. business retained earnings and foreign savings)
measure
actual investment which would be closer to 20% of GDP.
take it to over
25%
https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
Data Analysis Project 3 Due 05/09 until midnight (please
focus.)
For this project you will demonstrate competency in researching
economics; that is, creatively designing a research question,
locating pertinent and credible data to support an answer, and
presenting results in a professional and articulate manner.
Furthermore, you will also be applying fundamental statistical
and regression concepts to your data sets to more quantitively
answer your research questions. Follow these steps to complete
the project:
1. Using the data covered in the National Economy, Wealth
Income and Poverty, Business Statistics, Labor Statistics, and
Government, generate five research questions to study (one
22. from each category). For this project use causal type phrasing
(e.g. “Higher taxes cause lower GDP”, “Increased worker
productivity increases savings”, etc.).
2. Excel File:
A. For three of the five research questions create an Excel sheet
with your data set, one graph and the statistical metrics listed
below. Compile all the statistical metrics below and use a
different type of graph for each question. All statistical metrics
and graphs are to be calculated/generated in Excel using the
functions reviewed in class.
· Mean (weighted, arithmetic, or geometric)
· Median
· Sample Variance
· Standard Deviation
· Coefficient of Variation
· Range
· Percentiles
· Quintiles
· Skewness
B. SINGLE-VARIABLE REGRESSION: For one of the five
research questions create an Excel sheet with your data set, one
scatterplot graph, and the analysis output. Furthermore:
· Make sure n ≥ 30 (that is you should have at least 30 data
points that correlate across time or space)
· Add the R-squared and trendline to the scatterplot; use the
functional form with the highest R-squared.
· Use Excel’s Data Analysis TookPak regression function to run
a single-variable regression and generate the Analysis Output.
C. MULTIPLE-VARIABLE REGRESSION: For one of the five
research questions create an Excel sheet with your data set and
the analysis output. Furthermore:
· Make sure n ≥ 30 (that is you should have at least 30 data
points that correlate across time or space)
· Use at least six independent variables. Remember, all your
23. independent variables should be believed to influence the
dependent variable.
· Use Excel’s Data Analysis TookPak regression function to run
a multiple-variable regression and generate the Analysis Output.
3. PowerPoint Presentation: For each research question (five
total), create at least one PowerPoint slide illustrating the
pertinent graphs, statistical metrics, regression results, bullet
points (up to 3 and optional), and hyperlinks to your data source
website (make sure the links work). The PowerPoint should also
contain an introduction slide (e.g. name, project #, and class).
For the regressions add at least one slide answering each of the
following:
· What is the regression R-Squared and what does it mean
regarding your data?
· What are the statistically significant coefficients and how did
you conclude they were statistically significant?
· What are the statistically insignificant coefficients and how
did you conclude they were insignificant?
· Interpret each statistically significant coefficient to determine
how your dependent and independent variables are correlated;
that is, for a change in each independent variable how does this
impact the dependent variable. Make sure you use the proper
denominations (e.g. each square foot added to a home increases
the home price by $123). If no statistically significant results
are found, then you are to do the same thing but indicate that
the results cannot be relied upon.
4. Submission: Upload the Excel and PowerPoint file into the
link provided in Blackboard by the due date (no
e-mailed copies).
5. Grading: Project grade is weighted 50/50 for
Excel/PowerPoint; however, both must be submitted to receive a
score. Excel graphs must be derived from the data input in
Excel. The PowerPoint is graded subjectively as a presentation
to your fellow classmates so cosmetics, spelling, character size,
24. color, creativity all matter.
6. Academic Integrity: Do not copy graphs from websites nor
replicate another student’s work.
