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4 Theoretical studies Communication Today
Introduction
Since the emergence of the Internet in the nineties, there were
generally high expectations felt about
its role in uniting the world into a new interactive, discussing
and sharing community of people. However,
critical voices have risen too. Journalists, teachers and
scientists sometimes expressed their concerns about
vulnerability of new online audiences to manipulation, security
threats, and other dangers like behavioral ad-
diction. Not only large segments of audiences spent hours
before TV and computer screens daily1 – especially
1 PLENCNER, A.: Aktuálne témy v kritike masovej a
populárnej kultúry. In MORAVČÍKOVÁ, E. (ed.): Kultúra v
premenách
globalizácie. Nitra : Univerzita Konštantína Filozofa v Nitre,
2012, p. 298-299.
CRITICA L THINKING
A ND THE CHALLENGES
OF INTERNET
Alexander PLENCNER
A BSTR ACT:
In this article, the author addresses some challenges to
information searches and information evaluation which
were brought by the Internet. Large segments of audience are
exaggerating their awareness and do not realize
that their online behavior is driven more by emotions than by
critical assessment of primary sources. The result is
growing popularity of conspiracy theories, pseudoscience,
propaganda, and alternative medicine. These are all
examples of biased reasoning. Due to scientists, scholars,
teachers, and journalists, this trend can be considered
as a potential threat to public health and democracy. Publics
incapable of informed choices can be manipulated
to support radical political utopia or to reject evidence based
treatments. Some basic principles of media literacy,
scientific literacy and critical thinking are outlined. They can be
used as tools for raising awareness, enhancing
reasoning and adopting more objective perspective. This article
is based on assumption that behind irrational
beliefs there often lies anxiety, precondition for distrust derived
from childhood. Not only general users of the
Internet tend to overestimate their competence in domains of
their interest (so called Dunning-Kruger effect),
their behavior may be affected by unrecognized emotional
agenda (cautious monitoring of environment for dan-
ger, suspicious attitude towards authority figures and official
sources of information). The article is enclosed
with some recommendation how to evaluate information sources
on the Internet and how to be more empathetic
in online discussions in order to inspire to reasonable and
healthy choices.
K EY WORDS:
critical thinking, the Internet, information, education, media
literacy, scientific literacy, conspiracy theories,
pseudoscience, propaganda, alternative medicine
Communication Today, 2014, Vol. 5, No. 2
PhDr. Alexander Plencner, PhD.
Faculty of Mass Media Communication
University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava
Námestie J. Herdu 2
917 01 Trnava
Slovak Republic
[email protected]
Alexander Plencner is interested in popular culture, theory of
media, history of film, sociology of way of life and
psychology. He finished media studies at Faculty of Mass Media
Communication at University of SS. Cyril and
Methodius in Trnava where he works as an assistant professor
until today. He is a member of Department of mass
media communication and teaches courses on theory of media,
cult films and mass culture. He accomplished
postgraduate education in the programme of cultural studies at
Philosophical Faculty of Comenius University
in Bratislava with the PhD thesis “Reflections about Popular
Culture at the End of the Century”. He was
contributor of several projects of media education in Slovakia.
From 2006 until 2011 he was Slovak editor in
international magazine Mediální studia / Media Studies. He was
co-founder of IMEC – Media Literacy Center.
In 2013 he became an editor of European Journal of Media, Art
and Photography. From 2011 he also works as
soft skills trainer at business company FBE Bratislava and he is
external lecturer and editor for non-governmental
organization People in Peril Association Slovakia.
6 Theoretical studies Communication Today
However, challenge of thoughts and examination of reality
requires to slow down and tolerate uncom-
fortable feelings of uncertainty. Is this still possible, when
major role of the Internet for many is reassurance
and distraction? For some people, it is a window to reality, for
others, it is rather a shelter from it. With a little
dose of skepticism one can come to conclusion that what the
general user often gains from the Internet, is
information, not knowledge, connection, not community,
knowing and not understanding. In the age of wide-
spread intuitive attitudes towards virtual reality, critical
thinking is even more important. Dana Petranová
expresses her opinion that “the lowest common denominator in
nearly all definitions of media literacy is the
idea of development of critical thinking skills. This acquired
competence should assist public in its efforts
for understanding media messages, for conscious choice of
appropriate media channels and media products,
and for self-aware consumption of media focused on enhancing
sensitivity, reasoning and overall support”.3
But what exactly is media literacy? Let us turn to W. James
Potter and his definition. Literacy in the
broadest sense of the word is cognitive ability to speak, read
and understand. “Media literacy,” Potter ex-
plains, “is a set of perspectives that we actively use to expose
ourselves to the media to interpret the meaning
of the messages we encounter. We build our perspectives from
knowledge structures. To build our knowledge
structures, we need tools and raw material. These tools are our
skills. The raw material is information from the
media and from the real world. Active use means that we are
aware of the messages and are consciously inter-
acting with them”.4 But why is such skill needed any way? Is it
not obvious that media users do understand what
they are reading, listening or watching? There are two problems
in this assumption. First, there are cognitive
biases. We, as the audience, can come to false conclusions that
we know and understand something which we
actually do not. It could be either because we are not aware that
we have identified ourselves with pre-existing
thoughts or concepts (hence our opinions are adopted and not
deliberately formed) or we are overestimating
our competence. Second, as long as we do not know how the
media operate, how media messages are produced,
how meanings are suggested, we are vulnerable to intentions of
media institutions. Viera Kačinová, Viktória
Kolčáková and Dana Petranová make clear that to critically
assess media means to “be able to detect the poten-
tial manipulative effects of media, to distinguish values and
qualities, to be well informed about value systems
or models mediated by the media as well as to make
autonomous, deliberate decisions when selecting media
products”.5
Due to Potter, our position is weak at the beginning, because of
several factors: information fatigue,
false feeling of being informed, false sense of control, and
faulty beliefs.6 We are overwhelmed by the amount
of information and entertainment, so we are prone to switch to
automatic mode of perception. Because there
are so many information sources and channels, the media have
to compete for our attention. This builds heav y
pressure for information simplification and leaving out the
context at the expense of quality news and in-depth
views. We also suppose that we can use media of our choice,
when in reality we have predictable media hab-
its and significant amount of our time of media consumption is
dedicated to uninterrupted media exposure.
We also tend to believe what we want to believe and rely on
superficial information that resonates with our
already held views. This type of selective thinking is known as
confirmation bias. We favor some type of in-
formation not because it is true, but because it is emotionally
significant to us. Our need for reassurance is so
deep that it also works in other direction: we incline to filter or
ignore information contradicting our beliefs.
This predisposition is called cognitive dissonance.
Scientific literacy is a more specific skill than media literacy
but it is related to the quality of acquired edu-
cation and ability to thinking critically. Scientific literacy in the
narrow sense means competence to understand
science, especially its theories, methodolog y, observation,
experiments and tests. In the broad sense, scientific
literacy “means that a person can ask, find, or determine
answers to questions derived from curiosity about eve-
ryday experiences. It means that a person has the ability to
describe, explain, and predict natural phenomena.
3 PETR A NOVÁ, D.: Rozvíja mediálna výchova v školách
kritické kompetencie žiakov? In Communication Today, 2011,
Vol. 2,
No. 1, p. 67.
4 POTTER, W. J.: Media Literacy. Third Edition. Thousand
Oaks, London, New Delhi : Sage Publications, 2005, p. 22.
5 KAČINOVÁ, V., KOLČÁKOVÁ, V., PETRANOVÁ, D.:
Axiocentric media education as a strategy for the cultivation of
media
recipients. In European Journal of Science and Theology, 2014,
Vol. 10, No. 1, p. 104.
6 POTTER, W. J.: Media Literacy. Third Edition. Sage
Publications. Thousand Oaks, London, New Delhi : 2005, p. 7-
13.
among population with depressive, anxiety symptoms, low
social integration or poor social skills. There was
another problem – self-deception. Virtual worlds of cyberspace
offered an illusion of control and reduction
of harm. Internet users could gain false sense of reliability of
online information due to its confirmation by
social relevance, its significance to other people. Facts were no
more facts but rather factoids – notions and
suggestions validated according to emotional logic of the user
and to his wishful thinking. Evidence was no
more necessary. This of course involved groups and institutions
as well. The old mass media were at least le-
gally responsible for published information. But where was the
guaranty of truth related to anonymous online
users or obscure information sources? On the web, everyone
could publish anything. Thus entertainment,
information, experiences and testimonies available in few
seconds online were perceived as a great advantage
and possible danger at the same time. Scholars always tended to
view modern media either enthusiastically
(John Fiske) or suspiciously (Jean Baudrillard). The debate goes
on and in the case of digital media (also known
as new media) is even more accentuated.
General users of the Internet are not aware of specific obstacles
to opinion and decision making posed
by easy availability of all kinds of unsorted information.
Usually, one needs to know something about common
biases in thinking and reliability of various information sources.
Knowing one’s own incompetence is a start-
ing point for acquiring self-awareness and freedom of thinking.
For a general Internet user, it is rather critical
thinking skills and competence in information evaluation, than
formal education in some field of study, what is
needed as a basis for informed opinion and decision making.
In this article I will address media literacy, scientific literacy
and critical thinking. I suggest that un-
critical persons are not capable to address and recognize their
own incompetence. This can be attributed
to Dunning-Kruger effect. The differences between critical and
uncritical thinking are pointed out. Miscon-
ceptions about critical thinking are outlined as well. The next
part of the article is dedicated to key themes
in critical thinking: conspiracy theories, pseudoscience,
propaganda, and alternative medicine. These are
examples of biased reasoning. Their possible causes and typical
outcomes are mentioned. I am making an as-
sumption that behind most biased reasoning and flawed theories
there lies an anxiety, precondition for distrust
probably derived from childhood. Last section of the article
summarizes notable critical thinking initiatives in
Slovakia. The article is enclosed with two recommendations:
how to identify credible sources of information,
and how to be more successful in persuasive communication
efforts. The first one is intended for a general user
of the Internet, the second one for critically thinking persons
engaged in discussions. In this article I express
my belief that critical thinking can be considered as a basic
skill for conscious use of media and cautious judg-
ment of published scientific claims.
The Internet, media literacy and scientific literacy
The Internet and digital media are in some way continuation of
old mass media (like television broad-
casting available via new information channels, devices, and
platforms), in other way they are something spe-
cial – integration of all kind of media into new environment.
According to Slavomír Gálik and Radoslava Cen-
ká, “the fundamental feature of the most modern and most
powerful electronic media (the Internet, television)
is images, which change the way of thinking, imagination and
recognition”.2 As long as written and printed
word ceased to be the primary information carrier of western
culture and mass society submerged to technical
images (photography, cinematography, television, computer
graphic interface), the dominance of logic, slow
processes of critical thinking, and careful evaluation of
arguments was no more taken for granted. With faster
and faster communication, more immediate responses were
desirable. A long with them, the media started
to increasingly address intuition, precognition, and prejudices
of their audiences. Images, text, moving imag-
es, and graphics merged into new coherent structures with very
complex meanings and yet immediate feelings
of familiarity. They begin to form everyday narratives appealing
to audiences’ emotions and expectations.
2 GÁLIK, S., CENKÁ, R.: Twilight of Christianity in tele-view
of the world. From homo religiosus to homo videns. In
European
Journal of Science and Theology, 2013, Vol. 9, No. 5, p. 225-
226.
8 Theoretical studies Communication Today
But why is it so difficult to rethink our models of reality, to
carefully examine our position, to chal-
lenge our thoughts? Is it not a common part of learning? A n
obstacle we face here is so called “Dunning-
Kruger effect”. David Dunning and Justin Kruger designed an
experiment that demonstrated ways in which
people overestimate their performance and ability.9 Subjects of
study were tested in humor, logical reasoning
and grammar. According to Dunning and Kruger, people
unskilled in certain domains suffer a dual burden:
1) they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate
choices; 2) their incompetence robs them of the
metacognitive ability to realize it. In other words, because they
are incompetent, they are not capable to iden-
tify their own incompetence. The authors found out that the
most incompetent individuals, compared with
their more competent peers, had most dramatically
overestimated their ability and performance relative to
objective criteria. A nd what is really interesting, when they
were confronted with results, they did not change
their self-assessment. By contrast, the most competent
individuals were most likely to underestimate their
ability and performance. Because they were more experienced
in tested domains, they were well aware of what
they yet did not know. But as soon as the researchers presented
them their positive results, they adjusted their
self-assessment to more objective levels.
According to the authors, the incompetent have a tendency to
overestimate their capabilities, they are
incompetent to evaluate the competence level of others, and
they are not willing to admit it. However, the incom-
petent can gain insight about their shortcomings. But
paradoxically this is only possible by making them more
competent. They need to acquire metacognitive skills necessary
to be able to realize that they have performed
poorly. As soon as competence is increased in certain domain,
the former incompetence is recognized. This is
a noteworthy finding for learning and education. The public
needs to know that it is important to raise their
competence in domains of their interest and to honestly face
their own lack of knowledge or objectivity. We have
to acknowledge that our attitudes or opinions towards issues we
have a very little information of, are probably
not relevant and most likely to be biased. Feelings of
confidence in searching and evaluation of highly specific
information, when we have little or no substantial knowledge, is
a warning sign for Dunning-Kruger effect.
It is critical thinking that can be considered as a way how to
gain more objectivity and competence
in our efforts for understanding. W hat exactly does it mean to
think critically? I will refer here to Robert
Todd Carroll’s book Becoming A Critical Thinker10 and Greg
R. Haskins’ online essay Practical Guide
to Critical Thinking.11 Let us start with what critical thinking
is not. Thinking critically does not mean think-
ing negatively, being full of prejudices towards others who hold
different opinions. It does not mean searching
for mistakes or flaws. It is ability to evaluate arguments
regardless of who conveyed them. Critical thinking is
not an inborn gift, rather it is a skill that can be learned and
improved. It is only indirectly related to knowledge
or wisdom. A person who has acquired education in some field
of study is not automatically equipped with
critical thinking skills. These skills can be learned at school but
they can be learned outside whichever educa-
tional system as well. However, quality education should
involve critical thinking. It is possible for two people
to be equally intelligent and yet one of them could be better at
analyzing facts, claims, making conclusions
and decisions. Even the wisest scholar, scientist or the most
experienced expert can be wrong in many of his
or her assumptions. Science is an activity of obtaining
understanding about the natural or social world and its
indispensable part is persistent effort to correct and review what
is already known. We can say that if science
is aimed at better and fuller knowledge, critical thinking is
activity aimed at better reasoning.
A nother misconception about critical thinking is that it
excludes emotions. Thinking cannot be re-
duced to pure rationality. We use our emotions and intuition to
help us critically decide what to do in certain
situations, mainly because we are social beings. A critical
thinker rather addresses reason, emotions and intui-
tion as tools and knows when to use which of them. He or she is
able to prioritize them according to particular
context. Being critically aware does not imply being
impersonal, cold or detached, it simply means to be more
9 KRUGER, J., DUNNING, D.: Unskilled and Unaware of It:
How Difficulties of Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead
to
Inflated Self-assessments. In Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 1999, Vol. 77, No. 6, p. 1121-1134.
10 CARROLL, R. T.: Becoming a Critical Thinker: A Guide for
the New Millennium. Second Edition. Boston : Pearson Custom
Publishing, 2004.
11 HASKINS, G. R.: A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking.
[online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at:
<http://skepdic.com/essays/
Haskins.html>.
Scientific literacy entails being able to read with understanding
articles about science in the popular press
and to engage in social conversation about the validity of the
conclusions. Scientific literacy implies that
a person can identify scientific issues underlying national and
local decisions and express positions that are
scientifically and technologically informed. A literate citizen
should be able to evaluate the quality of scien-
tific information on the basis of its source and the methods used
to generate it. Scientific literacy also implies
the capacity to pose and evaluate arguments based on evidence
and to apply conclusions from such arguments
appropriately”.7 This explanation is taken from National
Science Education Standards.
Critical thinking
Critical thinking has been important since the very beginning
of looking for answers. Willingness
to ask the right questions and skills in identifying good sources
is a necessary prerequisite to finding valu-
able results. However, some critical awareness is crucial
whenever a person uses the Internet. General users
of the Internet can easily acquire false sense of being
thoughtful. They can unconsciously mislead themselves
that effort spent on searching information is equal to effort
spent on thinking. Using the web search engine,
reading online articles, gathering information or discussing in
forums cannot be considered as a critical prac-
tice. Interactivity is not by itself a process of reasoning, it is
only engagement, investment of our attention.
No significant conscious choices were made. Behavior of the
Internet user is mainly facilitated by online search
algorithms, technological protocols that adjust possible activity
into predictable set of options. Users need
to understand what to search, how to search and how to evaluate
what they have found. For example, on child-
related websites, the key word “vaccination” led to only 40%
provaccination sites and 60% antivaccination
sites. By contrast, “immunization” directed user to 98%
provaccination sites and only 2% antivaccination
sites. Due to Robert M. Wolfe and Lisa K. Sharp, “any use of
the term “vaccination” during an Internet search
is likely to expose a parent to a significant amount of
antivaccination information”.8
Search patterns of a general user of the Internet can be driven
by non-reflected emotional needs (such
as anxiety, need for security) and not by natural curiosity.
Critically thinking persons are aware of their own
biases and are able to set their emotional needs aside, to look at
the facts without prejudice, and with generally
neutral attitude. They are able to distinguish “facts” (context
free information) and “opinions” (context-based
information saturated with/or derived from emotions and
values). Critically illiterate persons are not aware
of fallacies in their reasoning. They can easily give in to false
arguments, like appeal to authority (Something
is true because experts say so: “Researchers from Cochrane
Collaboration also question long-term safety
of vaccination. I would never get my child vaccinated”), appeal
to popular belief (Something is true because ma-
jority of people believe in it: “India is much more spiritual than
the West”), appeal to ignorance (A claim is true
because it has not been proven false: “Nobody has proved to me
that there is extra-terrestrial life. We are alone
in the Universe.”), appeal to fear (A n argument is based on
provoking fear and prejudice towards the oppo-
nents: “Do you want homosexuals to raise our children? They
are sick and perverted!”), appeal to wishful
thinking (A claim is perceived true because person strongly
hopes in it: “Our prime minister is a good Slovak
and caring leader, he would not be lying about that”) or others.
With some simplification we can say that the difference
between a critically aware person and uncriti-
cal one lies in the readiness to challenge their own position.
“Uncritical” thinker is critical to others in order
to protect his or her own views, critical thinker is critical to
views that are not supported with good arguments,
despite who is holding them – laymen, scientists, authorities or
institutions. Critically thinking persons are
willing to change their opinions according to the facts,
uncritical persons refuse to change their opinions
despite the facts.
7 National Science Education Standards. Washington, DC : The
National Academy Press, 1996, p. 22.
8 WOLFE, R. M., SHARP, L.K.: Vaccination or Immunization?
The Impact of Search Terms on the Internet. In Journal of
Health
Communication: International Perspectives, 2005, Vol. 10, No.
6, p. 537-551.
10 Theoretical studies Communication Today
Milder forms of flawed thinking manifest themselves as beliefs
in conspiracy theories and pseudo-
science. Beliefs in conspiracy theories are wide-spread in the
broad media audience. They form influential
subcultures outside the mainstream and they are becoming more
and more popular. It is not something new,
conspiratorial outlook on history, politics or science has always
been attractive for some parts of the audi-
ence (Umberto Eco devoted two of his novels to ironizing
historical conspiracies – Foucault’s Pendulum and
The Prague Cemetery). The essence of every conspiracy theory
is an alternative interpretation of some event.
It is retelling of official version of a well-known story that
turns its elements and motives upside down. Typical
examples include 9/11 conspiracy (A merican government
planned to destroy the World Trade Center, the
towers could not came down because of planes’ crash), The
Moon Landing (USA never landed on the surface
of Moon, whole event is fake and was filmed in studios), The
Holocaust (due to conspirators, Holocaust never
happened), A rea 51/Roswell (a UFO crashed near Roswell,
New Mexico and A merican government kept it se-
cret) or New World Order (a group of international elites
controls and manipulates governments, industry and
the media). Popular conspiracy theory in Slovakia is related to
the cultural and historical icon Milan Rastislav
Štefánik. Many people believe that this general was assassinated
on the order of Edvard Beneš – his plane was
intentionally shot down.14 However, some conspiracies were
actually true, like Watergate involving A merican
President Richard Nixon.
Audience that believes in conspiracy theory of one kind is
usually susceptible to other theories as well.
Beliefs in conspiracies are a form of paranoid thinking about
the society. Damian Thompson refers to this at-
titude as “counterknowledge”.15 In view of Michael Barkun,
bizarre conspiracy ideas might be attributed to the
anxieties of “deeply shaken people, desperate to make sense of
the shocking events”. Behind disparate con-
spiracies there is the conviction that powerful, hidden, evil
forces control human destinies. The locus of this
evil lies outside the true community. The result is a worldview
characterized by a sharp division between the
realms of good and evil. Due to believers, nothing happens by
accident, nothing is as it seems and everything
is connected.16 Thus, popularity of conspiracy theories may be
viewed as an unsuccessful, irrational attempt
to control anxiety and fear from unpredictable events and
random evil.
Beliefs in conspiracy theories are closely associated with
beliefs in pseudoscience. Pseudoscience
offers an illusion of understanding without effort and without
doubt. But its functions are probably deeper,
pseudoscience may very well serve as a source of explanation
(Creationism and Intelligent Design), control
(Astrolog y) and mystery (Eastern theories of energ y systems
of human body). But one can find that also in
science (The Gene Theory, The Law of Demand, The A nthropic
Cosmological Principle). Then what is the
difference between science and pseudoscience? Stephen S.
Carey explains that scientific method is a simple,
three-step process, consisting of observing, explaining, and
testing. Science investigates natural phenomena,
from the physical to the biological to the social. In order to
understand what is unclear, possible explanations
for observational findings need to be proposed. Then they have
to be tested if they are correct. Scientists de-
sign experiments to determine whether the results actually
match their predictions. If it happens, scientists
have a good reason to believe their explanation is right.
Scientific findings are open to revision and changes
in scientific understanding are very common. They generally
occur at the level of underlying explanation.
By contrast, pseudoscience refuses to be tested. It does not
adhere to the methods of science (accurate obser-
vation, explanatory methods, designing experiments and testing
claims). Pseudoscience is not self-correcting,
it rarely changes much over time. W hile science produces new
explanatory or theoretical findings, pseudosci-
ence produces very little theory. Pseudoscientific research
comes with spectacular claims for extraordinary
abilities and events. In view of Carey, “Genuine science
embraces skepticism; pseudoscience tends to view
skepticism as a sign of narrow-mindedness”. Pseudoscience
shows tendency to accept claims in the absence
of solid scientific evidence in order to preserve sense of
mystery.17
14 ČUPKA, M.: Prečo ľudia potrebujú konšpiračné bludy.
[online]. [2014-01-26]. Available at:
<http://zurnal.pravda.sk/spoloc-
nost/clanok/306261-preco-ludia-potrebuju-konspiracne-bludy/>.
15 THOMPSON, D.: Counterknowledge: How we surrender to
conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science, and fake
history.
New York, London : W. W. Norton & Company, 2008.
16 BARKUN, M. A.: Culture of Conspiracy. Apocalyptic
Visions in Contemporary America. Berkeley, Los Angeles,
London : Univer-
sity of California Press, 2003, p. 2-4.
17 CAREY, S. S.: A Beginner’s Guide to Scientific Method.
Fourth edition. Wadsworth Cencage Learning, 2010, p. 123-128.
objective. It also does not mean adopting some set of beliefs. A
person needs not to believe in critical thinking.
Critical thinking is not a system of thought competing with
religion. Some critical thinkers are atheists, some
are agnostics, and some are theists.
Forming opinions and decision making always implies
considering values and norms. Critically thinking
persons do not deny that. However, they are aware of this
process; they know there is no such thing as perception
of pure reality without the presence of an observer. There are
almost always some personal factors interfering our
perception and judgment (for example sociologists interested in
social justice or natural scientist committed to par-
ticular environmental agenda). It is rather typical for uncritical
persons to be sure that they are objective, that they
definitely “have” the truth like it could be some sort of
property. The world should be like they believe and everyone
who does not see it in the same way must be wrong. We all have
uncritical parts of our minds, especially when it comes
to consideration of issues with strong emotional content. A
critical thinker should be able to detect when he or she is
starting to loose neutrality. A person who wants to be a critical
thinker has to adopt sort of intellectual humility, has
to be acquainted with his or her limits and respect views of
others. Critical thinkers tend to view the truth as a kind
of perspective. Because different perspectives have different
validity, they try to find out which one of them best
matches or describes the reality. Sometimes the theory or
concept is compound from several perspectives. These
perspectives can or cannot be integrated into one functional
model (for example, there is a Grand Unified Theory
which attempts to integrate gravity with electromagnetic, weak
and strong interactions in physics, or there are vari-
ous complementary and contradicting theories of media violence
in psychology and media studies).
A n uncritical person usually expresses his or her opinion
towards some issue or topic and then selec-
tively searches for facts that support it (for example abortion
laws, artificial insemination, gun control, GMO).
A critical thinker clarifies his or her values, looks up all
relevant facts (and tries his or her best not to dismiss
uncomfortable ones) and then forms final opinion. Critical
thinkers do not know which attitude they finally
adopt. Freedom of thinking and quality of reasoning is valued
more than loyalty to ideas important to some
social groups. Rather than arguing with “right” or “wrong”, a
critically aware person operates with terms like
“valid” or “invalid”, examining if a certain claim is true,
partially true or false.
Critical thinking is aimed at reaching well-founded view
points. So what exactly is critical thinking?
Robert Todd Carroll clarifies that when we are thinking
critically, we are using our knowledge and intelligence
effectively to arrive at the most reasonable and justifiable
position possible. Due to him, to think critically is
to “think clearly, accurately, knowledgeably, and fairly while
evaluating the reasons for a belief or for tak-
ing some action”.12 Carroll explains that most important part of
critical thinking is logic, epistemolog y, and
ethics. Logic studies reasoning, epistemolog y studies the nature
of knowledge and ethics studies morality
of actions. Haskins expresses his conviction that critically
thinking persons usually come to more relevant
conclusions; they are better decision makers and more effective
problem solvers. Becoming a critical thinker
involves balancing between open-mindedness and healthy
skepticism. Skepticism here is rather a method than
an attitude. A critical thinker should be able to recognize and
avoid critical thinking hindrances, to identify,
characterize and evaluate arguments and to evaluate information
sources.13
Conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, propaganda
and alternative medicine
Illiteracy or inability to evaluate information sources can
seriously diminish capacity of public to pro-
tect themselves from deception. Weakly educated audiences are
supported in keeping their distorted view
of reality as long as they form major consumer groups that are
attractive for conspiracy publishers, authoritar-
ian political regimes or alternative medicine industry.
12 CARROLL, R. T.: Becoming a Critical Thinker: A Guide for
the New Millennium. Second Edition. Boston : Pearson Custom
Publishing, 2004.
13 HASKINS, G. R.: A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking.
[online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at:
<http://skepdic.com/essays/
Haskins.html>.
12 Theoretical studies Communication Today
She measured and observed separation anxiety (how infant
reacts when left by the caregiver), the infant’s de-
sire to explore surroundings, anxiety from stranger figure and
behavior when caregiver returned.20 Due to
her findings, there are three possible attachment styles: secure
attachment, insecure avoidant attachment and
insecure ambivalent attachment.
Securely attached children were associated with sensitive and
responsive primary care. They have developed
a positive working model of themselves. They trust others and
tend to view them as being available, responsive, and
helpful. They feel safe to explore. Infants with avoidant
attachment were associated with unresponsive primary care.
The child experienced that communication of needs had no
influence on mother or father. Avoidant persons think
about themselves as unworthy and unacceptable. They are very
independent. Ambivalently attached children expe-
rienced inconsistent primary care. Their needs were sometimes
met and sometimes ignored. They have a negative
self image and exaggerate their emotional responses in order to
gain attention. These children failed to develop any
feelings of security. They explored their surroundings less than
other two types. Later, the fourth type of attachment
was recognized, disorganized attachment style (confused and
inconsistent attachment behavior).
Insecure attachment correlates with anxiety and in ambivalent
types with reduced exploring. There is
probably connection between natural curiosity, ability to
tolerate distress from unpleasant findings and secu-
rity of early attachment. Bowlby even suggested defensive and
selective exclusion of information from aware-
ness as a defense mechanism observable in early age. It protects
the individual from experiencing unbearable
mental pain, confusion, or conflict. He also considered a
situation when two sources of information are highly
contradictory. In this case the person can experience a severe
psychic conflict.21 Insecure attachment styles
of certain individuals may affect their information searching
patterns. They learned from very early age to cau-
tiously and suspiciously monitor their environment for danger.
Thus, reduced awareness and ability to search
and critically evaluate information cannot be ascribed to
deliberate ignorance. There may be reasons why cer-
tain people distrust authority figures such as scholars,
scientists, journalists or respected bloggers.
Popularization of critical thinking in Slovakia
Digital illiteracy, biased thinking, invalid reasoning or poor
evaluation of new information sources is wide-spread
and hard to counterbalance. Lack of metacognitive ability to
realize one’s incompetence, anxiety from uncertainty and
abundance of web sites that rather rely on affective than
cognitive appeals, makes it even more difficult. Somewhat
ironi-
cally, the best way how to challenge digital illiteracy is to
spread knowledge about proper reasoning via Internet.
Notable contributions to popularization of critical thinking in
Slovakia can be dated to 2010. Criti-
cal thinking, as a part of wider domain of media education, was
promoted by International Media Education
Center (IMEC) founded in 2010 at the Faculty of Mass Media
Communication of University of SS. Cyril and
Methodius in Trnava. More specific approaches were related to
other initiatives. On 12th of December 2010
non-governmental organization Manageria set up an event
“Forum for Inspirational Ideas” with the theme
“Critical Thinking”. Hundreds of guests, mostly students, had
arrived. First part of happening was dedicated
to presentation of various speakers, second part was designed
for panel discussion between them and in the
third part the audience could participate in discussing groups
dedicated to various topics related to the main
theme. On 28th of December of the same year, group of Internet
debaters (Martin Bies, Peter Isteník and oth-
ers) launched a web site Použime rozum (Use Your Reason).
Their pages were intended as a reaction towards
emerging popularity of conspiracy theories and pseudoscience.
Their articles tried to popularize science and
critical thinking, particularly evolutionary psycholog y and
biolog y, information science, cognitive science and
behavioral science. The authors intended to promote natural
curiosity, proper reasoning and skepticism. Due
to them, quality education leads to intellectual progress of the
society. 22 The web site was active until 2013.
20 AINSWORTH, M. D., BELL, S. M.: Attachment,
Exploration, and Separation: Illustrated by the Behavior of One-
Year-Olds in a
Strange Situation. In Child Development, 1970, Vol. 41, No. 1,
p. 49-67.
21 BRETHERTON, I.: The Origins of Attachment Theory: John
Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth. In Developmental Psychology,
1992,
Vol. 28, No. 5, p. 759-775, 1992.
22 Použime rozum. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at:
<http://www.pouzimerozum.sk/>.
Public need for mystery and reassurance may be exploited not
only by pseudoscientists but also by
specialized marketers selling their esoteric, new age,
metaphysical or occult merchandise or services (like
crystal energ y stones, Geo-Pathogenic Zones protection
shields, bio-energetic jewelry etc.). These products
are nothing more than embodiment of pseudoscientific theories.
Lack of critical awareness can be a more serious problem than
harmless beliefs in conspiracy theories
and pseudoscience – especially for democracy and general
public health. The public cannot always be taken
responsible for this.
The next issue I would like to mention is propaganda. W hy do
people believe in political utopia?
The problem may lie in the fact that many politicians do not
wish to serve public in the first place. They of-
ten try to maintain their position and influence. Therefore they
support the kind of agenda that is important
for their electorate. Risk of success of propaganda is higher
when political representatives play a double role:
they formally express the need for justice and promote certain
values appealing to public, but at the same
time their very own actions contradict their proclaimed
principles. Corruption, breaking the law, conviction
that standard rules do not apply to them, spread distrust and
contempt. Public is then much more vulnerable
to manipulation via media propaganda. W hen dissatisfaction is
strong enough and overtakes critical mass
of public, the electorate often turns to radical political parties.
W hen overall mood is being disappointment,
the audience gives in to dangerous message: “no one is worth
trusting”. In this condition the risk of losing crit-
ical perspective and the rise propaganda is high. The audience is
liable to believe in conspiracy theories and
radical political solutions. This tendency encourages
authoritarian politicians and their repressive systems.
A nother threat is related to health. W hen health practitioners
behave in an authoritarian way, when
they do not arrange enough time for their patients, when they do
not answer their questions and do not react
to their concerns with empathy, they lose their trust. The
patients would be looking elsewhere for the very first
thing they needed mostly: hope and encouragement. W hen a
person realizes he or she has a dangerous illness,
loosing ability of critical judgment is very common. This
situation is favorable for alternative medicine practi-
tioners. Due to Paul Offit, alternative healers “provide natural
remedies instead of artificial ones, comfort in-
stead of distance, and individual attention instead of take-a-
number-and-wait-your-turn inattention”.18 Offit
states that alternative medicine is an aggressive industry with
estimated amount of $34 billion annual profit.
However, only about one-third of alternative therapies have
ever been tested for their safety and efficacy.19
If the patient is scared from invasive treatments like
chemotherapy, s/he is vulnerable to false promises. W hen
s/he decides to try alternative therapy, s/he often finds relief.
Positive emotions and expectations arise. But
meanwhile, the illness behind “positive thinking” steadily
progresses. At the time when a patient is so sick
that s/he finally seeks regular health care, it is often too late
even for effective treatments from conventional,
evidence based medicine to help. Scared, anxious people
uncritically accepting the myth of natural remedies
are easy targets for “The Hope Business”, operating through the
Internet and increasing their publics.
Anxiety as a precondition for distrust
From the overview of few key themes in critical thinking, we
can assume that it is anxiety what lies
behind some biased reasoning and flawed theories. W here does
it come from? Developmental psycholog y rec-
ognizes various types of attachment between primary carers
(mostly mothers) and infants. Security of indi-
vidual’s attachment in early age (until 2 or 3 years) influences
his or her later self-worth, confidence, curiosity
and overall sense of safety.
A nxiety and distrust experienced in adult age may be related
to the type of attachment that a person has
formed as a child. Major proponents of attachment theory are
John Bowlby and Mary A insworth. A insworth de-
signed an experiment (called “Strange Situation”) to investigate
various attachment types between children.
18 OFFIT, P. A.: Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and
Nonsense of Alternative Medicine. Harper, 2013, p. 8.
19 NUWER, R.: Alternative Medicine Is a $34 Billion Industry,
But Only One-Third of the Treatments Have Been Tested.
[online].
[2013-06-18]. Available at:
<http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/alternative-
medicine-is-a-34-billion-industry-but-only-one-third-
of-the-treatments-have-been-tested-879411/>.
14 Theoretical studies Communication Today
Conclusions
Can we recommend any basic guidelines for a general user of
the Internet in order to stay critically
aware? How to distinguish between various information
sources? A simple model can be helpful here, let us
call it “Pyramid of Credibility”. On the top of the pyramid there
are the most reliable and credible sources:
peer reviewed scientific magazines. A ny scientific article
(paper) needs to be carefully scrutinized in terms
of its originality, significance and contribution to the field. The
reviewers are other experts in the field. This
does not mean that everything what is published is flawless, but
it does mean that it had passed testing for ap-
propriate scientific standards. A published article is open to
criticism and later evaluation. For example, an
important criterion for overall quality of the study is
replicability of the published findings. In this way, false or
controversial results are recognized. Science has unique ability
for self-correction. Suggestions how to read
and understand a scientific paper, even for non-scientists, are
available on the Internet. Access to scientific
bibliographic databases can be obtained through libraries or
educational institutions. A user of the Internet
should be aware of scientists or scholars whose claims are
directed to issues which do not belong to their field of
study (A chemist cannot evaluate if vaccine ingredients such as
aluminium are safe for human bodies). Papers
which were not published in peer reviewed magazines are of
much less significance. There is a high risk that
they are flawed and usually this is the reason why they were not
accepted in peer review process. A lso insti-
tutions or authorities are not relevant for judging claims (for
example, legal institutions like courts have no
competence to confirm or disprove scientific claims).
Second most reliable source (still in the higher part of
pyramid), are quality media, both for profession-
als or for general audience (quality press). In order to gain
reputation, the quality media are expected to be
socially responsible. They have codes of conduct and they are
legally responsible for published information.
Journalists cannot voluntary publish anything. They have to
make sure if their information is correct. For ex-
ample, in 2011 the BBC Trust published a seminal report on the
broadcaster’s coverage of science. The author,
Steve Jones, warned about “false balance” in the BBC’s
reporting of scientific issues, caused by attempts to pay
attention to anyone, however unqualified, who shows an
interest.28
Rather unreliable sources are various blogs and web pages –
third level according to credibility of sourc-
es. Here, the Internet user has to be especially aware. One needs
to ask important questions: Who is the author
of the article? Is there any conflict of interest? (for example,
physician who advocates alternative medicine has
a private homeopathic practice). Is he an expert in the field he
is writing about? Is he respected in related commu-
nity of scholars and scientists? Does the article contain
references to peer reviewed papers, academic, scientific
or scholarly books? YouTube videos, various testimonies on
forums and web pages referring to each other without
any link or reference to primary source of information, are
highly suspicious. Are the web pages that advocate
new theories or findings associated with some products or
services directly dedicated to sale? (for example, a web
site about alkaline diet also sells dietary supplements like
SuperGreens and Prime pH). If a user is not sure about
reliability of information, he or she can use special keywords
added to his/her online search to find out if there are
any pages doubting its credibility (online search + “myth”,
“debunked”, “quackery”, “skeptic”).
The base of the pyramid is represented by testimonies or claims
made by relatives, friends or acquaint-
ances (“I know a person who...”, “I heard about a case
where...”). It is the least credible source of information.
Scientists and scholars refer to this reasoning as “anecdotal
evidence”. A person uses an experience or an
isolated example instead of an argument or scientific evidence.
Because the sample is small, there is high prob-
ability that information may be unreliable or biased (“My
grandfather smoked a pack of cigarettes daily and
lived until 89”). This type of evidence is irrelevant and yet most
frequent. It should be avoided.
Scientifically literate persons and critical thinkers evaluate
information obtained from the Internet by
these standards. It is not surprising that the Pyramid of
Credibility of uncritical persons, fans of conspiracy
theories or believers in pseudoscience, is turned upside down.
The least credible sources are the most appeal-
28 Review of impartiality and accuracy of the BBC’s coverage
of science. [online]. [2012-05-21]. Available at:
<http://www.bbc.
co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/editorial_standards/impartiality/scienc
e_impartiality.html>.
In 2013 a new popular magazine Zem a vek (The Earth and Era)
appeared in Slovakia. Its audience
consisted of fans of conspiracy theories. Behind the magazine
stood Tibor Eliot Rostas, an artist, film and tel-
evision director, journalist and former copy writer. The
magazine offered harsh critique of capitalism, denied
official interpretation of many historical events and some of its
texts leaned towards xenophobic and racist
views. Many articles were composed from what had already
been circulating the Internet. Rostas’ infamous
alternative news was also broadcasted through popular
commercial Rádio Viva (Now Rádio Viva Metropol),
spreading distrust and fear.
A need for intellectual opposition between students, scientists,
journalists (weekly magazine .týždeň),
bloggers and community activists, was felt. Daily newspapers
Pravda and Sme published articles about con-
spiracy theories.23 This somewhat underground theme was
officially recognized by quality press. Other initia-
tives include Facebook groups Slovenskí skeptici (Slovakia
Skeptics) and Slovenský klub skeptikov Darwin
(Slovakian Skeptic Club Darwin). A respected activist in the
critical thinking community in Slovakia is the
blogger Matúš Ritomský.24
More specific reactions to pseudoscience and conspiracy
theories are related to medicine. In 2013
two Facebook pages responded to dangerous anti-vaccination
movement: community Neverím mýtom
o škodlivosti očkovania (I don’t believe myths about harmful
effects of vaccination) and science website Lovci
šarlatánov (Hunters of charlatans). The second one was created
by group of students of medicine and pharmacy
finishing their studies along with young physicians from Košice
(Maroš Rudnay, Kamil Knorovský, Roland
Oravský, and Marek Vícha). Later it was extended with regular
off-Facebook website w w w.lovcisarlatanov.sk.
The project is similar to Quackwatch, its Facebook version
reached 7,173 likes until now.
Main intention of these activists was to stop health-related
fallacies, absurd claims and apparent fraud-
ulent products and services spreading around the Internet.25
Due to Roland Oravský, there are three groups
of believers in charlatan theories. The first group consists of
radicals who would not change their minds under
any circumstances. The second group includes the moderates
who are interested in methods in medicine and
they are overall curious. They do not see conspiracy of
pharmaceutical corporations behind everything. The
third group is made up of people capable of critical thinking,
who just do not know where the truth is. A nd this
is their target audience.
According to activists, it is the Internet, what helped charlatans
to reach before unattainable publics.26
Maroš Rudnay explains that just as there is no such thing like
alternative physics, alternative mathematics,
biolog y or physiolog y, there is no alternative system operating
in medicine. Methods of treatments either work,
can be tested and reasonably explained, or do not work and
make no sense. Success of many alternative treat-
ments can be ascribed to placebo effect.
However, the effectiveness of placebo is limited. There is a
serious threat to health when a person relies
on treatments that are irrational or confirmed as ineffective.
Regarding health, the Internet is at the same
time the best and the worst place for searching information.
Maroš Rudnay concludes that teaching of critical
thinking is absent in all levels of Slovak educational system.
Due to him, a crucial part of education is ability to
effectively search for information. Therefore, an Internet user
needs to learn how to identify proper sources.27
23 ČUPKA, M.: Prečo ľudia potrebujú konšpiračné bludy.
[online]. [2014-01-26]. Available at:
<http://zurnal.pravda.sk/spoloc-
nost/clanok/306261-preco-ludia-potrebuju-konspiracne-bludy/>;
KREKOVIČ, M.: Konšpiračné teórie: všetko je inak. [online].
[2010-05-
06]. Available at: <http://www.sme.sk/c/5356884/konspiracne-
teorie-vsetko-je-inak.html>.
24 ritomsky.sk. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at:
<http://www.ritomsky.sk/>; Priestori – informácie, inšpirácie,
ideály. [online].
[2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.priestori.sk/>.
25 Lovci šarlatánov. Skoncujme so záplavou medicínskych
nezmyslov, absurdít a očividných podvodov, ktoré sa
dennodenne kopia
a pribúdajú na rôznych weboch, diskusiách a fórach. [online].
[2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.lovcisarlatanov.sk/>.
26 Lovci šarlatánov: Nezmysel o prekyslení organizmu je
nezničiteľný. [online]. [2014-03-14]. Available at:
<http://tech.sme.
sk/c/7136022/lovci-sarlatanov-nezmysel-o-prekysleni-
organizmu-je-neznicitelny.html>.
27 JASLOVSKÝ, M.: Lovec šarlatánov Maroš Rudnay: Výučba
kritického myslenia u nás úplne absentuje. [online]. [2014-06-
19].
Available at:
<http://blog.mindshare.sk/2014/06/19/rozhovory/lovec-
sarlatanov-maros-rudnay-vyuka-kritickeho-myslenia-u-nas-
uplne-
absentuje/>.
16 Theoretical studies Communication Today
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Olds in a Strange Situation. In Child Development, 1970, Vol.
41, No. 1, p. 49-67. ISSN 0009-3920.
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Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth. In Developmental Psycholog y,
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CAREY, S. S.: A Beginner’s Guide to Scientific Method. Fourth
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bludy/>.
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says/Haskins.html>.
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kritického myslenia u nás úplne absentuje. [online]. [2014 -06-
19]. Available at: <http://blog.mindshare.sk
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[2010-05-06]. Available at: <http://w w w.sme.
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ing to them and the best verified ones are highly suspicious in
their eyes. W hat can we do about that? Is there
any proper way of communication that could be effective, if
only partially? For example, persuasion of parents
resistant to vaccination is highly unsuccessful.29
I would like to enclose my article with recommendation that is
based on psychology of communication.
Reading discussions between critical thinkers and laymen
favoring pseudoscience, there is one clear misconcep-
tion in critical thinkers – that uncritical audience can be
persuaded by reasoning and evidence. And if they do not,
they must be simply ignorant. But behind almost every
questionable behavior there is a positive attitude. There
are reasons why persons believe in something that is harmful
for them. They just did not find a better way how
to address their feelings of helplessness, confusion and anxiety.
It is a coping strategy. Ignoring internal reasons
even for bizarre beliefs predictably leads to feelings of rejection
and makes all persuasion impossible.
One way how to respect the opponent is selective ignorance of
his or her disrespectful behavior and
lack of knowledge. The person needs to respect others even if
they do not respect him. This is rarely seen in
the discussions. A critical thinker is ready to immediately point
to rhetorical fallacies of the opponent (argu-
mentum ad hominem argumentum ad populum, etc.). But
understanding and avoiding fallacies are meant to
improve my thinking, not reasoning of the others. I cannot force
others to think and behave rationally. This
only triggers defense mechanisms. Honest self-reflection after
criticism is a cultural myth. In reality, regard-
less if a person is right or wrong, anytime he or she is being
accused, it is perceived as a threat. Emotions are
stronger than reasoning because of their survival function (one
needs to react immediately, lengthy thinking
about danger could lead to death). So the criticized person
easily loses control in the debate. Older parts of
the brain take control and one of the three reactions occur:
fight, flight or freeze response. Since the Internet
offers sense of safety (there is no direct face to face
confrontation on the Internet, in some forums it is possible
to stay anonymous), fight is the most typical reaction here
(expressed as trolling and flaming).
A critical thinker is reaffirmed in his assumption that it is
pointless to discuss with radicals. However,
even if he or she does not succeed in persuasion efforts and
reasoning, there are others who are reading and
watching the discussion. If they are laymen, they would be
affected more by emotions in the debate than by
arguments. Being ironic or sarcastic back fires any honest
educational purposes. It is a form of aggressiveness.
A critical thinker then can find himself or herself in a position
of persuading of already persuaded. It is the
same situation like in communities centered around various
ideologies. How to avoid this trap?
The first step in overcoming objections is listening to
opponent. W hat is the matter of disagreement?
W hat she opposes and refuses to accept? Second step is
expressing of understanding (empathy). A critical
thinker should express that if s/he is in the situation of his/her
opponent, s/he would probably feel and react
the same way (“If I had such bad experience with health care
system and doctors and read those articles about
corruption of pharmaceutical corporations and dangers of
vaccination, I would also hesitate to believe in the
safety of vaccines.”). Only in the third step a critical thinker
can try to overcome objections, use his reasoning
and skills to support his case and explain his point of view. In
the last, fourth step, he can ask if his explana-
tions were satisfactory or if there are any questions left. He
needs to respect if the opponent refuses to change
or challenge their own views. The first two steps are often
omitted. A critical thinker passes right into arguing.
In this way, it is hard to persuade even persons who are
hesitating and undecided.
Social skills are equally important as thinking skills. Critical
thinkers cannot put their faith into power
of their sole reasoning, into their tools and methods. They need
to earn respect and trust as the persons as well.
Without them, all persuasive communication intended to inspire
healthier choices, would be ineffective. It is
blind submission to defensive emotions (fear, anger) and lack of
awareness that can be considered as a root
of illiteracy. However, only by recognizing the value of
emotions, and acceptance of personal reasons for keep-
ing certain beliefs, the reasoning and growth of awareness is
possible.
Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by the grant of
the Grant Agency of Science VEGA,
No. 2/0187/12
29 NYHAN, B., REIFLER, J., RICHEY, S., FREED, G. L.:
Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial.
In Pediat-
rics, 2014, Vol. 133, No. 4, p. 835-842.
18 Theoretical studies Communication Today
THOMPSON, D.: Counterknowledge: How we surrender to
conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science, and fake
history. New York, London : W. W. Norton & Company, 2008.
ISBN 978-0-393-07046-0.
WOLFE, R. M., SHA RP, L.K.: Vaccination or Immunization?
The Impact of Search Terms on the Internet. In Journal
of Health Communication: International Perspectives, 2005,
Vol. 10, No. 6, p. 537-551. ISSN 1081-0730.
©Copyright 2004 Critical Core, Inc.
Making decisions in an uncertain world: Intuition vs analysis
Jane E. Mather, Ph.D.
President, Critical Core, Inc.
Prepared for Occupiers Property Databank Annual Conference,
February 2004
"Truly successful decision making relies on a balance between
deliberate and instinctive
thinking." Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking
Without Thinking.
No where is there a better example of this than in the world of
corporate real estate and facilities
management. In a world of continuous change, corporate real
estate executives need good
intuitive strategies and reasoned decision making. Experienced
real estate professionals have
consistently demonstrated well-honed skills for intuitively
identifying the right strategies. During
negotiations, quick calculations can be invaluable.
Nevertheless, as other corporate disciplines increase the
sophistication of their analysis, senior
executives have begun to expect the same from real estate
professionals. They still want
simple summaries, but they want to be sure that there is
reasoned analysis behind them. They
want real estate professionals to set targets and demonstrate that
they are achieving them. In
addition, in a world of change, they must explain the risks of
their recommendations,
This presentation addresses how portfolio managers and
strategic planners can make better
decisions in an uncertain business environment. It considers
when intuition is sufficient and
when a more detailed analysis can be beneficial. After a review
of some of the basic issues in
decision making in an uncertain environment, it turns to some
typical strategies for managing
uncertainty to show which of those can benefit from a more
technical analysis. Then it
addresses the role of metrics in decision making and
demonstrating performance.
Role of costs in decision making
In workplace decisions, the goal is to identify the solution that
provides the best balance of
productivity enhancement, cost control, and risk minimization.
While these goals are widely
recognized, most of our decision making revolves around costs.
In some situations, costs
maybe taking too central a role.
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 2
Costs versus productivity. It’s important to remember the
relative role of real estate in the
organization. Workplace costs per person, which typically
include real estate, facility
operations, and furniture costs, and should also include
workplace-specific data and
telecommunication costs, can range from £4,000 to £8,000 per
person. At the same time, the
salary and benefits of the person, which reflect the productivity
added by the worker using those
workplace assets, can range from £20,000 to £80,000 per
person. Thus a 5% reduction in
costs, which would total £200 to £400 per person, would not be
warranted if it led to even a 1%
reduction in productivity.
Costs versus risk. Much of the decision making in an uncertain
business environment reflects
the trade-off between cost and risks. Often it can be considered
within the framework of
whether the insurance that provides flexibility is worth the cost.
There are two primary
approaches for evaluating these trade-offs: expected net present
value, which assigns
probabilities to various outcomes, and simulations, which
demonstrate the range of possible
outcomes.
We have used expected net present value analysis to evaluate
the appropriate term lengths and
options for leases in different situations. This analysis will be
described in the section on how
analytical approaches can be used to evaluate different
approaches to managing uncertainty.
Simulation approaches can be beneficial in a number of
situations. As financial analysis has
become so central to decision making, simulations can help us
understand whether the
estimated cost differences are really meaningful within the
context of uncertain assumptions.
They can also identify the risks that accompany a
recommendation, for example, a long term
lease might reduce costs, but might lead to additional costs if
that space is not needed in the
future. Figure 2 shows how a simulation analysis can identify
the relative costs and risks.
Decision makers might determine that solution 3 is the best, but
they need to note that the
reduced cost comes with the risk of higher costs in some
situations.
From a technical perspective, simulation analysis is most
beneficial when the range of potential
outcomes is not symmetrical, for example, due to limits on price
changes, such as upward only
rent reviews, or due limits on losses, such as cancellation
options.
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 3
We’ve used simulations and related techniques to price
cancellation, contraction, and expansion
options, that is, to identify the increase in rent that a landlord
should charge or a tenant should
be willing to pay. As described by Tony Key in his presentation
at last year’s conference, these
approaches typically do not add much more value than intuition.
In our projects, our estimates
have shown that the tenant ought to be willing to pay £5 to £12
per square meter ($1 to $2 per
square foot) for various options. The exact pricing is difficult
because we do not have sufficient
information to accurately estimate the likelihood of various
market rent trends in the future.
These techniques can be beneficial when decision makers need
to demonstrate that an option
is worth at least a specific price, but they don’t provide
sufficient information to provide an exact
value. Thus intuition is often sufficient for evaluating real
estate options.
Strategies for managing uncertainty
The first step in assessing decision making is to review various
strategies than can help
manage the uncertainty. In this section, we review some
suggested strategies for managing
Figure 1. Simulations enable planners to review the costs and
risks of each
solution
$150
$156
$160
$170
$140
$180
Occupancy
Costs (millions)
$130
$164
Expected cost for
solution 3 - $150 mil.
Expected cost for
solution 1 - $164 mil.
Expected cost for
solution 2 - $156 mil.
Each box shows range of
costs for one decile (10%)
of cost outcomes.
$150
$156
$160
$170
$140
$180
Occupancy
Costs (millions)
$130
$164
Expected cost for
solution 3 - $150 mil.
Expected cost for
solution 1 - $164 mil.
Expected cost for
solution 2 - $156 mil.
Each box shows range of
costs for one decile (10%)
of cost outcomes.
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 4
uncertainty and assess when more sophisticated analysis
approaches can add value to
implementing these strategies. The strategies considered
include:
• Better headcount forecasts,
• Duration matching
• More flexible work environments
• Clustering
Better headcount forecasts. Many organizations have tried to
manage uncertainty by trying to
develop better headcount forecasts and thus reduce uncertainty.
Unfortunately, business unit
executives are generally uncomfortable providing a one-year
forecast, while real estate
professions are looking for three to five year forecasts.
Some real estate professionals have suggested quantitative
approaches for headcount
forecasting. They range from relating headcount forecasts to
revenue projections, if available,
to complex econometric time-series methodologies. Certainly
business unit revenue forecasts
and headcount forecasts are beneficial, but most of the more
complex forecasting
methodologies provide few insights within the real estate
context. As with option pricing,
planners generally do not have sufficient data to make use of
sophisticated forecasting
techniques. Spending more time talking with the businesses,
combined with intuition, will reap
more benefits.
As part of these discussions, corporate real estate executives
should on focus on achieving a
better understanding of the range of possible outcomes. For
those who want a more systematic
approach to specifying these ranges, we suggest a review of the
historical values specified in
Figure 2. This matrix highlights the different types of business
units and the types of historical
information about employment and revenues that can be
beneficial.
With this understanding of the possible future scenarios,
planners can intuitively specify lease
terms and options to provide the flexibility needed to match the
wide range of business
outcomes, as illustrated in Figure 3.
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 5
Duration matching. In an uncertain environment, most real
estate professionals recognize that
the low-cost long-term lease is not always the best solution.
Many have suggested shorter-term
leases to provide the needed flexibility and some have
suggested “duration matching” as one
approach to identify the appropriate lease term. Duration
matching in real estate is similar to
this concept within the financial sector. This approach stresses
the importance of matching the
duration of the lease to the demand uncertainty, shorter leases
for more uncertain business
environments. Some go further and recommend that the lease
term match the expected life
cycle for the business or product. While the former is certainly
true, the more specific focus on
the product life cycle can lead to too much flexibility because
other factors are not being
considered.
Evaluating lease term lengths and ownership structure depends
on whether the real estate
executive is looking at individual properties, such as field sales
offices, or a portfolio of
properties within a city or considering a portfolio of “fungible”
properties whose activities can be
relocated among the properties, for example, a campus or a
number of call center facilities.
For individual properties, analytical models using probabilities
can be used to identify the
appropriate term lengths and options. Landlords charge more
for shorter-term leases due to the
amortization of tenant improvement costs and a premium to
compensate the landlord for the risk
Figure 2. Historical workforce and revenue characteristics for
estimating
the range of outcomes
Range of Rates of Change for Workforce / Revenue Business
Unit
Categories
Share of
Workforce Average Recession Recovery
Mature business units -
stable, low variance
Mature business units -
cyclical, high variance
Timing for Workforce / Revenue
Average rate of
change
Time to
maturity
Time to closure
New, growing business
unit
Contracting business
unit
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 6
of having to release the space at the end of the term.
Probability analysis show when an
organization should be willing to pay more to eliminate the risk
of be caught with excess space.
A formal term length and option analysis can be completed by
considering the relative costs of
space with different term lengths and options, the tenant-
specific improvements, market rent
forecasts, and the historical probabilities that the tenant of this
type will want to move. With
these estimates, one can identify when the probability of
moving is sufficiently high to warrant a
short-term lease, and when the probability of staying is
sufficiently high to suggest the long-term
lease. In the situation described in Figure 4, the probability of
staying that would warrant a
longer lease term (in this case from 3 to 6 years) ranged from
40% to 60%. In other words,
even if the tenant had only a 60% chance of staying it would be
better to choose the longer
lease. (The analysis in the UK is likely to be different in the
US because the US has had a
Figure 3. Matching supply to range of outcomes with staggered
leases and
options
Cancellation
option for
Lease F
Square Feet
(millions)
Owned
Space
4
2
20
04
20
08
Building
planned for
owned land
1
20
06
20
10
3
Leased
Space
Expansion
option for
Lease C
Bldg A
Bldg B
Lease D
Lease C
Lease E
Lease F
Lease G
Space required
with forecasted
growthLease H
Space required
with high-growth
scenario
Legend
Planned building
Expansion option
Cancellation option
Leased space
Owned space
Space required
with low-growth
scenario
20
12
Cancellation
option for
Lease F
Square Feet
(millions)
Owned
Space
4
2
20
04
20
08
Building
planned for
owned land
1
20
06
20
10
3
Leased
Space
Expansion
option for
Lease C
Bldg A
Bldg B
Lease D
Lease C
Lease E
Lease F
Lease G
Space required
with forecasted
growthLease H
Space required
with high-growth
scenario
Legend
Planned building
Expansion option
Cancellation option
Leased space
Owned space
Legend
Planned building
Expansion option
Cancellation option
Leased space
Owned space
Legend
Planned building
Expansion option
Cancellation option
Leased space
Owned space
Space required
with low-growth
scenario
20
12
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 7
stronger push for short-term leases to provide flexibility than in
the UK.) The challenge in this
case is gaining the trust from senior executives, that if your
organization is left with excess
space, they would understand that the decision was based on
sound analysis that considered
this risk.
As illustrated in this analysis, term length analysis should go
beyond the life cycle of the
business activity and also reflect amount of tenant specific
improvements within a space. One
of the primary downsides of a short-term lease is the need to
renew the lease if the tenant
decides to stay. When there are tenant specific improvements,
the tenant is at a disadvantage
because the landlord knows it will cost a great deal to recreate
these improvements at another
location.
There are many examples in which the amount of tenant specific
improvements drives the
approach to flexibility. For example, a leading high-tech
manufacturing company has production
plants with products that have very short, and uncertain, product
life cycles. They don’t follow
the pure duration matching example and negotiate a short-term
lease. Instead they own these
properties since these factories are core to their business and
they can be retooled to meet
future business needs. They understand that if they leased the
property and decided to renew,
they would be in a very poor negotiating position.
Figure 4. Probabilities of staying that warrant longer lease
terms
6-year lease,
no cancellation option
3-year lease,
no credit for TI amortization
6-year lease,
canc. penalty = unamort TI
+ 1 year gross rent
3-year lease, fixed renewal rate
½ credit for TI amortization
Tenant Improvement Requirements
$25 / sf $40 / sf $75 / sfLease Comparisons
62% 50% 35%
60% 50% 40%
6-year lease,
no cancellation option
3-year lease,
no credit for TI amortization
6-year lease,
canc. penalty = unamort TI
+ 1 year gross rent
3-year lease, fixed renewal rate
½ credit for TI amortization
Tenant Improvement Requirements
$25 / sf $40 / sf $75 / sfLease Comparisons
62% 50% 35%
60% 50% 40%
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 8
Some organizations are increasing their lease flexibility through
portfolio contracts with real
estate owners. These contracts enable the tenants to give back a
certain amount of space
across their portfolio as part of the contract. As in the case of
shorter lease lengths, this
flexibility comes at a cost. In this case, the landlord or owner
may not need to charge as much
for the flexibility because they are able to limit the cost across
portfolios and because they may
win leases that they would not otherwise have gotten because of
the opportunity to be part of
this more flexible national contracts.
More flexible work environments. Many organizations have
increased the flexibility of their
portfolios by providing more flexible work environments,
through strategies such as hotelling, or
some other form of shared officing, and more standardized
space. Both of these situations
achieve flexibility by limiting the extent to which the space is
customized to the occupant. Some
organizations that have implemented hotelling approaches have
found that the cost reduction
was minimal but that true benefits were the increased flexibility
they achieved during tight real
estate markets and the increased worker satisfaction of those
who appreciated the ability to
work remotely.
Clustering. While it is important to understand the demand
uncertainty for individual spaces, it
is less important when considering a group of fungible
properties. Large organizations can
consolidate activities into one general location, for example,
within a campus or collection of
buildings. Then the risk that any one individual business unit
needs more or less space can be
diversified across other business units. While one group is
growing another might be shrinking.
Once more, the lease term does not need to match the specific
life cycle for a project.
Over the years, we’ve seen significant improvement in
organization taking advantage of the
benefits of consolidation. In major locations, most
organizations no longer let individual
business units go out on their own to secure properties. At the
same time, this approach can be
taken too far. When there are significant moving costs and
reconfiguration costs to support
different business needs, the benefits of consolidation may be
less than costs. In addition,
users need to consider their need to diversify activities across
locations.
CoreNet Global’s Core 2010 resource classifications present a
concept that complements
clustering. In this case, the workplace organization classifies
its the properties based on their
“commitment” to the overall property portfolio, identifying
those properties that are core to the
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 9
portfolio and other properties which are more “flexible” and
easier to dispose of if not needed.
In this way, when companies are making long-term plans they
can focus their major investments
in core properties and avoid decisions to make major
investments in “flexible” properties. At the
same time, they need to ensure that they have enough short-term
flexible space to respond to
changing business requirements.
The challenge in these situations is identifying the right balance
of owned properties, long-term
leases, and short-term leases. Generally, a good balance can be
achieved intuitively, for
example, by using an approach similar to that shown earlier in
Figure 3.
In other disciplines, optimization modeling for inventory
management and supply chain
management provide key insights into setting the appropriate
capacity when there demand is
uncertain. These techniques, which combine financial modeling
and management science,
have enabled organizations to save millions of dollars. We are
starting to do some analysis in
this area but don’t have any clear findings on our ability to find
better solutions using this
approach.
Once a business has developed a cluster of properties, it can be
a very complex analysis
process to determine how to best relocate business activities
when business requirements
change. In these situations, we have found significant added
value of through more
sophisticated analysis approaches. To evaluate these situations,
we have developed
proprietary software that extends the optimization modeling
techniques mentioned above. Like
internet search engines that quickly and systematically search
through millions of web sites,
mathematical optimization techniques quickly search through
the possible relocations to find the
set that best meet the user’s goals and requirements. This
approach goes beyond databases
and spreadsheets, enabling users to consider millions of
different combinations of real estate
relocation, construction and other workplace activities to find
the combination that best meet
their goals.
The savings from better analysis in this area can be in the
millions. In a back-office
consolidation for a financial services firm, we identified a
solution that met all the business
requirements, would have reduced labor and real estate costs by
over $20 million, and would
have reduced the number of lay-offs required by one-third
through better relocation of activities
to locations where workers can be retrained for new positions.
In another situation, the
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 10
consolidation of two financial firms’ properties within one city,
we identified a solution that saved
$16 million by relocating activities into spaces that required
less reconfiguration and freeing up
space that had greater sublease value.
In some cases, we find the same solutions that we identified
intuitively. The advantage of
optimization modeling in these situation is that it provides a
systematic framework to include all
relevant factors and enables users to quickly try many different
alternatives. This process also
enables real estate executives to show senior executives that
they have considered all of the
possible alternatives.
Metrics
“The single most important reason why corporate real estate
executives and facilities managers
fail to have an influence in the boardroom is that they lack the
information to demonstrate that
they are doing a great job.” Christopher Hedley, “Getting to
grips with information.”
Increasingly, senior executives are evaluating the performance
of workplace organizations
through selected metrics. This trend is likely to accelerate amid
greater concern over corporate
accountability. To the extent that decision makers are evaluated
on these metrics, they also
drive decision making
While workplace organizations recognize that success depends
on more than costs, costs
continue to receive the greatest focus. A common metric is the
cost per person housed or
served. To explain performance, this metrics can be
decomposed into three primary
components. Changes in each of these components drives
changes in occupancy costs.
Consistent measures. To provide valuable measures of
performance and to motivate good
decisions, metrics need be consistent and accurately reflect cost
differences. Often the
information for these metrics resides in separate, tactically-
focused databases. Combining data
from different systems can lead to multiple values for the same
data and inconsistencies.
Before workplace executives can demonstrate performance, they
need address more resources
to making sure that their data meets both their strategic needs as
well as their tactical needs.
Cost
Persons Housed
Cost
Square Foot
Square Foot
Seat
=
Seats
Persons Housed * *
Cost
Persons Housed
Cost
Square Foot
Square Foot
Seat
=
Seats
Persons Housed * *
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 11
One of the areas that is most often mismeasured is the cost of
capital, as measured in the cost
of owned properties relative to leased properties. Most
organization now require a discounted
net present value analysis for major decisions. Through this
approach, the analysis explicitly
reflects the fact that if the capital wasn’t invested in the
workplace assets, it could be invested
elsewhere. Yet, when it comes to metrics and chargebacks, the
cost of capital that is
measured in the discount rate is ignored. The cost of owned
property often only includes
depreciation, operating expenses, and property taxes. There is
no charge for capital invested;
it’s like having a mortgage with zero interest.
When performance is based on calculations involving these
measures, this oversight can drive
poor decisions. Within the workplace organization, business
considerations may suggest
leasing property but the performance metrics will be lower if
the properties are owned. For
business units occupying the real estate, owned properties may
look less expensive as well.
For example, a real estate organization for a financial service
firm recommended that some
business units relocate from Manhattan to less expensive
locations in New Jersey. Once this
space was vacated, they would then be able to lease the space to
outside tenants at the current
high market rates. But because the business unit was being
charged only depreciation and
operating expenses, its costs in Manhattan appeared less than
those in New Jersey. But once
the real estate organization shifted their charges for owned
properties to be market rates, the
business unit’s cost reflected the true opportunity cost, and the
business unit leaders readily
agreed that New Jersey was a smart move.
A key challenge in demonstrating good performance is being
able to explain why any negative
changes are not the result of poor performance. It is not
sufficient to say that increasing costs
reflect circumstances beyond the workplace organization’s
control. Executives need to be able
to show that these negative results were anticipated, and that the
cost to avoid them was too
great compared to the benefits. Better comparative data and
more comprehensive decision
making, including some of the techniques described earlier, will
help in these explanations.
As part of this process, workplace organization are not just
responsible for reporting these
measures, they also must be able to set targets and then explain
the differences when the
targets aren’t met.
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 12
Setting the targets for these metrics can be even more
challenging than explaining them.
While it might seem possible to use the simple decomposition
specified earlier to set targets,
this approach can lead to unrealistic forecasts for improvement,
setting the workplace
organization up for failure. Figure 5 shows the results of
implementing a hotelling system to
reduce space usage estimated through the simple metrics and
through a more comprehensive
analysis approach. While the simple analysis projects
significant cost savings, the
comprehensive model shows almost no change. The simple
analysis did not take into account
the implementation costs and the limited opportunities for
disposing of the excess space.
Conclusion
Workplace organizations generally lag behind their counterparts
in other corporate disciplines in
adopting more sophisticated analysis approaches. In this paper,
we’ve described several ways
in which workplace decisions can be improved:
• Focus on a range of outcomes rather than point estimates
• Use probabilities and simulations to compare costs and risks
Figure 5. Metrics forecasts vs comprehensive forecasts for cost
reductions
through increasing hotelling implementation
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Init
ial 200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
C
os
t /
P
H
Business As
Usual, Costs
Grow, No
Relocation
New Guidelines,
Consolidation with
Amortized Initial
Costs
New Guidelines,
Consolidation no
Initial Costs
Forecast from
Metrics
Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 13
• Consider both product life cycles and tenant-specific
improvements in setting ownership
structure and lease terms
• Cluster properties and identify those that are core to the
organization
• Ensure that metrics are consistent
• Use comprehensive models, not metrics, for forecasts
These recommendations and the related analytical approaches
can lead to better decisions and
the ability to demonstrate the value of the workplace
organization. Even if workplace executives
can identify good recommendations intuitively, senior
executives are demanding more
accountability and that will require more comprehensive
analysis.
Common misconceptions of critical thinking
SHARON BAILIN, ROLAND CASE,
JERROLD R. COOMBS and LEROI B. DANIELS
In this paper, the ® rst of two, we analyse three widely-held
conceptions of critical
thinking: as one or more skills, as mental processes, and as sets
of procedures. Each
view is, we contend, wrong-headed, misleading or, at best,
unhelpful. Some who write
about critical thinking seem to muddle all three views in an
unenlightening me lange.
Apart from the errors or inadequacies of the conceptions
themselves, they promote or
abet misconceived practices for teaching critical thinking.
Together, they have led to
the view that critical thinking is best taught by practising it. We
o� er alternative
proposals for the teaching of critical thinking.
Critical thinking is a subject of considerable current interest,
both in terms
of theory and pedagogy. A great deal is written about critical
thinking,
conferences on the subject abound, and educational initiatives
aimed at
fostering critical thinking proliferate.1 It is our view that much
of the
theoretical work and many of the pedagogical endeavours in this
area are
misdirected because they are based on faulty conceptions of
critical think-
ing. Critical thinking is frequently conceptualized in terms of
skills, pro-
cesses, procedures and practice. Much of the educational
literature either
refers to cognitive or thinking skills or equates critical thinking
with certain
mental processes or procedural moves that can be improved
through
practice. In this paper we attempt to explain the misconceptions
inherent
in such ways of conceptualizing critical thinking. It is important
to note
that much of the literature contains a pervasive miasma of
overlapping uses
of such terms as skill, process, procedure, behaviour, mental
operations,
j. curriculum studies, 1999, vol. 31, no. 3, 269± 283
S haron Bailin, a professor in the Faculty of Education, Simon
Fraser University, Burnaby,
British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6, is interested in
philosophical inquiries into critical
thinking, creativity and aesthetic education. Her publications
include Reason and V alues:
New Essays in Philosophy of Education (Calgary, AB: Detselig,
1993), co-edited with John P.
Portelli.
Roland Case, an associate professor in the Faculty of Education,
Simon Fraser University,
conducts research in social studies and legal and global
education. His most recent book is
The Canadian Anthology of Social S tudies: Issues and S
trategies (Burnaby, BC: Faculty of
Education, Simon Fraser University), co-edited with Penney
Clark.
Jerrold R. Coombs, a professor in the Faculty of Education,
University of British Columbia,
has published extensively on ethical issues in education and the
development of competence
in practical reasoning. His publications include Applied Ethics:
A Reader (Oxford: Black-
well, 1993), co-edited with Earl R. Winkler.
L eRoi B. Daniels, a professor emeritus in the Faculty of
Education, University of British
Columbia, is interested in philosophy of mind and legal
education. He is currently editing
(with Roland Case) the `Critical Challenges Across the
Curriculum’ series (Burnaby, BC:
Faculty of Education, Simon Fraser University).
Journal of Curriculum S tudies ISSN 0022± 0272 print/ISSN
1366± 5839 online Ñ 1999 Taylor & Francis Ltd
http://www.tandf.co.uk/JNLS/cus.htm
http://www.taylorandfrancis.com/JNLS/cus.htm
etc. We thus ® nd similar kinds of error and confusion about
critical
thinking under super® cially di� erent ways of talking. We
have tried to
focus on plausibly distinct uses of skill, process and procedure
in our
critiques. Our arguments will lay the groundwork for o� ering a
new
conception based on di� erent foundational assumptions in the
following
paper on this theme.
Cr i ti c a l th i n ki n g a s s ki l l
Many educators and theorists appear to view the task of
teaching critical
thinking as primarily a matter of developing thinking skills.
Indeed, the
discourse on thinking is su� used with skill talk. Courses and
conferences
focus on the development of thinking skills and references to
skills appear
in much of the literature.2 Even leading theorists in the area of
critical
thinking conceptualize critical thinking largely in terms of skill.
Thus, for
example, Siegel (1988: 39, 41) writes of the critical thinker as
possessing à
certain character as well as certain skills’ , and makes reference
to `a wide
variety of reasoning skills’ . Similarly, Paul (1984: 5) refers to
critical
thinking skills and describes them as `a set of integrated macro-
logical
skills’ . The Delphi Report on critical thinking (Facione 1990),
which
purports to be based on expert consensus in the ® eld, views
critical thinking
in terms of cognitive skills in interpretation, analysis,
evaluation, inference,
explanation and self-regulation.
It is important to note that the term s̀kill’ can be used in a
variety of
senses and that, as a consequence, some of the discussion of
skills in critical
thinking is relatively unproblematic. In some instances s̀kill’ is
used to
indicate that an individual is pro® cient at the task in question.
It is used, in
this context, in an achievement sense. A skilled reasoner is one
who is able
to reason well and to meet the relevant criteria for good
reasoning. The use
of skill in this context focuses attention on students being
capable of
intelligent performance as opposed to merely having
propositional knowl-
edge about intelligent performance. Thus, someone who is
thinking criti-
cally can do more than cite a de® nition for ad hominem. He or
she will
notice inappropriate appeals to an arguer’ s character in
particular argu-
mentative contexts. Clearly, being a critical thinker involves,
among other
things, having a certain amount of `know-how’. Such thinkers
are skilled,
then, in the sense that they must be able to ful® ll relevant
standards of good
thinking. Conceptualizing critical thinking as involving skill in
this
achievement sense is relatively benign.
However, some of the discussion of skills in the context of
critical
thinking is more problematic. There is a strong tendency among
educators
to divide educational goals or objectives into three distinct
kinds: knowl-
edge, skills (i.e. abilities), and attitudes (i.e. values), and to
assign critical
thinking to the category of skills.3 Conceiving of critical
thinking as a skill
in this sense implies more than simply that an individual is a
competent or
pro® cient thinker. It is based on a conception of skill as an
identi® able
operation which is generic and discrete. There are di� culties
with both of
these notions. We will begin with the problems entailed in
viewing skills as
270 s. bailin ET A L .
generic, i.e. once learned, they can be applied in any ® eld of
endeavour; the
problems involved in viewing skills as discrete will be dealt
with later.
Skills as generic
The identi® cation of critical thinking with skill in the tripartite
division of
educational goals separates critical thinking from the
development of
knowledge, understanding and attitudes. Critical thinking is
seen to involve
generic operations that can be learned in themselves, apart from
any
particular knowledge domains, and then transferred to or
applied in
di� erent contexts. Thus, for example, Worsham and Stockton
(1986: 11,
12) claim that t̀here are some skills that are basic and common
to most
curriculum tasks (for example, gathering information, ® nding
the main
idea, determining meaning)’ . They further state that:
Most curriculum materials at the high school level require that
students
analyze, synthesize, and evaluate as well as to[sic] create new
`products’, such
as original oral and written pieces and artistic creations.
Students are
expected to apply the appropriate thinking skills to accomplish
these tasks.
In a similar vein, Beyer (1987: 163) makes reference to discrete
thinking
skills and claims that:
To be pro® cient in a thinking skill or strategy means to be able
to use that
operation e� ectively and e� ciently on one’s own in a variety
of appropriate
contexts.
The separation of knowledge and critical thinking is fraught
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET
CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET

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CRITICA L THINKING AND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET

  • 1. 4 Theoretical studies Communication Today Introduction Since the emergence of the Internet in the nineties, there were generally high expectations felt about its role in uniting the world into a new interactive, discussing and sharing community of people. However, critical voices have risen too. Journalists, teachers and scientists sometimes expressed their concerns about vulnerability of new online audiences to manipulation, security threats, and other dangers like behavioral ad- diction. Not only large segments of audiences spent hours before TV and computer screens daily1 – especially 1 PLENCNER, A.: Aktuálne témy v kritike masovej a populárnej kultúry. In MORAVČÍKOVÁ, E. (ed.): Kultúra v premenách globalizácie. Nitra : Univerzita Konštantína Filozofa v Nitre, 2012, p. 298-299. CRITICA L THINKING A ND THE CHALLENGES OF INTERNET Alexander PLENCNER A BSTR ACT: In this article, the author addresses some challenges to information searches and information evaluation which were brought by the Internet. Large segments of audience are exaggerating their awareness and do not realize that their online behavior is driven more by emotions than by
  • 2. critical assessment of primary sources. The result is growing popularity of conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, propaganda, and alternative medicine. These are all examples of biased reasoning. Due to scientists, scholars, teachers, and journalists, this trend can be considered as a potential threat to public health and democracy. Publics incapable of informed choices can be manipulated to support radical political utopia or to reject evidence based treatments. Some basic principles of media literacy, scientific literacy and critical thinking are outlined. They can be used as tools for raising awareness, enhancing reasoning and adopting more objective perspective. This article is based on assumption that behind irrational beliefs there often lies anxiety, precondition for distrust derived from childhood. Not only general users of the Internet tend to overestimate their competence in domains of their interest (so called Dunning-Kruger effect), their behavior may be affected by unrecognized emotional agenda (cautious monitoring of environment for dan- ger, suspicious attitude towards authority figures and official sources of information). The article is enclosed with some recommendation how to evaluate information sources on the Internet and how to be more empathetic in online discussions in order to inspire to reasonable and healthy choices. K EY WORDS: critical thinking, the Internet, information, education, media literacy, scientific literacy, conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, propaganda, alternative medicine Communication Today, 2014, Vol. 5, No. 2 PhDr. Alexander Plencner, PhD. Faculty of Mass Media Communication University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava
  • 3. Námestie J. Herdu 2 917 01 Trnava Slovak Republic [email protected] Alexander Plencner is interested in popular culture, theory of media, history of film, sociology of way of life and psychology. He finished media studies at Faculty of Mass Media Communication at University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava where he works as an assistant professor until today. He is a member of Department of mass media communication and teaches courses on theory of media, cult films and mass culture. He accomplished postgraduate education in the programme of cultural studies at Philosophical Faculty of Comenius University in Bratislava with the PhD thesis “Reflections about Popular Culture at the End of the Century”. He was contributor of several projects of media education in Slovakia. From 2006 until 2011 he was Slovak editor in international magazine Mediální studia / Media Studies. He was co-founder of IMEC – Media Literacy Center. In 2013 he became an editor of European Journal of Media, Art and Photography. From 2011 he also works as soft skills trainer at business company FBE Bratislava and he is external lecturer and editor for non-governmental organization People in Peril Association Slovakia. 6 Theoretical studies Communication Today However, challenge of thoughts and examination of reality requires to slow down and tolerate uncom- fortable feelings of uncertainty. Is this still possible, when major role of the Internet for many is reassurance and distraction? For some people, it is a window to reality, for others, it is rather a shelter from it. With a little
  • 4. dose of skepticism one can come to conclusion that what the general user often gains from the Internet, is information, not knowledge, connection, not community, knowing and not understanding. In the age of wide- spread intuitive attitudes towards virtual reality, critical thinking is even more important. Dana Petranová expresses her opinion that “the lowest common denominator in nearly all definitions of media literacy is the idea of development of critical thinking skills. This acquired competence should assist public in its efforts for understanding media messages, for conscious choice of appropriate media channels and media products, and for self-aware consumption of media focused on enhancing sensitivity, reasoning and overall support”.3 But what exactly is media literacy? Let us turn to W. James Potter and his definition. Literacy in the broadest sense of the word is cognitive ability to speak, read and understand. “Media literacy,” Potter ex- plains, “is a set of perspectives that we actively use to expose ourselves to the media to interpret the meaning of the messages we encounter. We build our perspectives from knowledge structures. To build our knowledge structures, we need tools and raw material. These tools are our skills. The raw material is information from the media and from the real world. Active use means that we are aware of the messages and are consciously inter- acting with them”.4 But why is such skill needed any way? Is it not obvious that media users do understand what they are reading, listening or watching? There are two problems in this assumption. First, there are cognitive biases. We, as the audience, can come to false conclusions that we know and understand something which we actually do not. It could be either because we are not aware that we have identified ourselves with pre-existing thoughts or concepts (hence our opinions are adopted and not
  • 5. deliberately formed) or we are overestimating our competence. Second, as long as we do not know how the media operate, how media messages are produced, how meanings are suggested, we are vulnerable to intentions of media institutions. Viera Kačinová, Viktória Kolčáková and Dana Petranová make clear that to critically assess media means to “be able to detect the poten- tial manipulative effects of media, to distinguish values and qualities, to be well informed about value systems or models mediated by the media as well as to make autonomous, deliberate decisions when selecting media products”.5 Due to Potter, our position is weak at the beginning, because of several factors: information fatigue, false feeling of being informed, false sense of control, and faulty beliefs.6 We are overwhelmed by the amount of information and entertainment, so we are prone to switch to automatic mode of perception. Because there are so many information sources and channels, the media have to compete for our attention. This builds heav y pressure for information simplification and leaving out the context at the expense of quality news and in-depth views. We also suppose that we can use media of our choice, when in reality we have predictable media hab- its and significant amount of our time of media consumption is dedicated to uninterrupted media exposure. We also tend to believe what we want to believe and rely on superficial information that resonates with our already held views. This type of selective thinking is known as confirmation bias. We favor some type of in- formation not because it is true, but because it is emotionally significant to us. Our need for reassurance is so deep that it also works in other direction: we incline to filter or ignore information contradicting our beliefs. This predisposition is called cognitive dissonance.
  • 6. Scientific literacy is a more specific skill than media literacy but it is related to the quality of acquired edu- cation and ability to thinking critically. Scientific literacy in the narrow sense means competence to understand science, especially its theories, methodolog y, observation, experiments and tests. In the broad sense, scientific literacy “means that a person can ask, find, or determine answers to questions derived from curiosity about eve- ryday experiences. It means that a person has the ability to describe, explain, and predict natural phenomena. 3 PETR A NOVÁ, D.: Rozvíja mediálna výchova v školách kritické kompetencie žiakov? In Communication Today, 2011, Vol. 2, No. 1, p. 67. 4 POTTER, W. J.: Media Literacy. Third Edition. Thousand Oaks, London, New Delhi : Sage Publications, 2005, p. 22. 5 KAČINOVÁ, V., KOLČÁKOVÁ, V., PETRANOVÁ, D.: Axiocentric media education as a strategy for the cultivation of media recipients. In European Journal of Science and Theology, 2014, Vol. 10, No. 1, p. 104. 6 POTTER, W. J.: Media Literacy. Third Edition. Sage Publications. Thousand Oaks, London, New Delhi : 2005, p. 7- 13. among population with depressive, anxiety symptoms, low social integration or poor social skills. There was another problem – self-deception. Virtual worlds of cyberspace offered an illusion of control and reduction of harm. Internet users could gain false sense of reliability of online information due to its confirmation by social relevance, its significance to other people. Facts were no more facts but rather factoids – notions and suggestions validated according to emotional logic of the user and to his wishful thinking. Evidence was no
  • 7. more necessary. This of course involved groups and institutions as well. The old mass media were at least le- gally responsible for published information. But where was the guaranty of truth related to anonymous online users or obscure information sources? On the web, everyone could publish anything. Thus entertainment, information, experiences and testimonies available in few seconds online were perceived as a great advantage and possible danger at the same time. Scholars always tended to view modern media either enthusiastically (John Fiske) or suspiciously (Jean Baudrillard). The debate goes on and in the case of digital media (also known as new media) is even more accentuated. General users of the Internet are not aware of specific obstacles to opinion and decision making posed by easy availability of all kinds of unsorted information. Usually, one needs to know something about common biases in thinking and reliability of various information sources. Knowing one’s own incompetence is a start- ing point for acquiring self-awareness and freedom of thinking. For a general Internet user, it is rather critical thinking skills and competence in information evaluation, than formal education in some field of study, what is needed as a basis for informed opinion and decision making. In this article I will address media literacy, scientific literacy and critical thinking. I suggest that un- critical persons are not capable to address and recognize their own incompetence. This can be attributed to Dunning-Kruger effect. The differences between critical and uncritical thinking are pointed out. Miscon- ceptions about critical thinking are outlined as well. The next part of the article is dedicated to key themes in critical thinking: conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, propaganda, and alternative medicine. These are examples of biased reasoning. Their possible causes and typical outcomes are mentioned. I am making an as-
  • 8. sumption that behind most biased reasoning and flawed theories there lies an anxiety, precondition for distrust probably derived from childhood. Last section of the article summarizes notable critical thinking initiatives in Slovakia. The article is enclosed with two recommendations: how to identify credible sources of information, and how to be more successful in persuasive communication efforts. The first one is intended for a general user of the Internet, the second one for critically thinking persons engaged in discussions. In this article I express my belief that critical thinking can be considered as a basic skill for conscious use of media and cautious judg- ment of published scientific claims. The Internet, media literacy and scientific literacy The Internet and digital media are in some way continuation of old mass media (like television broad- casting available via new information channels, devices, and platforms), in other way they are something spe- cial – integration of all kind of media into new environment. According to Slavomír Gálik and Radoslava Cen- ká, “the fundamental feature of the most modern and most powerful electronic media (the Internet, television) is images, which change the way of thinking, imagination and recognition”.2 As long as written and printed word ceased to be the primary information carrier of western culture and mass society submerged to technical images (photography, cinematography, television, computer graphic interface), the dominance of logic, slow processes of critical thinking, and careful evaluation of arguments was no more taken for granted. With faster and faster communication, more immediate responses were desirable. A long with them, the media started to increasingly address intuition, precognition, and prejudices of their audiences. Images, text, moving imag- es, and graphics merged into new coherent structures with very
  • 9. complex meanings and yet immediate feelings of familiarity. They begin to form everyday narratives appealing to audiences’ emotions and expectations. 2 GÁLIK, S., CENKÁ, R.: Twilight of Christianity in tele-view of the world. From homo religiosus to homo videns. In European Journal of Science and Theology, 2013, Vol. 9, No. 5, p. 225- 226. 8 Theoretical studies Communication Today But why is it so difficult to rethink our models of reality, to carefully examine our position, to chal- lenge our thoughts? Is it not a common part of learning? A n obstacle we face here is so called “Dunning- Kruger effect”. David Dunning and Justin Kruger designed an experiment that demonstrated ways in which people overestimate their performance and ability.9 Subjects of study were tested in humor, logical reasoning and grammar. According to Dunning and Kruger, people unskilled in certain domains suffer a dual burden: 1) they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices; 2) their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. In other words, because they are incompetent, they are not capable to iden- tify their own incompetence. The authors found out that the most incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, had most dramatically overestimated their ability and performance relative to objective criteria. A nd what is really interesting, when they were confronted with results, they did not change their self-assessment. By contrast, the most competent individuals were most likely to underestimate their
  • 10. ability and performance. Because they were more experienced in tested domains, they were well aware of what they yet did not know. But as soon as the researchers presented them their positive results, they adjusted their self-assessment to more objective levels. According to the authors, the incompetent have a tendency to overestimate their capabilities, they are incompetent to evaluate the competence level of others, and they are not willing to admit it. However, the incom- petent can gain insight about their shortcomings. But paradoxically this is only possible by making them more competent. They need to acquire metacognitive skills necessary to be able to realize that they have performed poorly. As soon as competence is increased in certain domain, the former incompetence is recognized. This is a noteworthy finding for learning and education. The public needs to know that it is important to raise their competence in domains of their interest and to honestly face their own lack of knowledge or objectivity. We have to acknowledge that our attitudes or opinions towards issues we have a very little information of, are probably not relevant and most likely to be biased. Feelings of confidence in searching and evaluation of highly specific information, when we have little or no substantial knowledge, is a warning sign for Dunning-Kruger effect. It is critical thinking that can be considered as a way how to gain more objectivity and competence in our efforts for understanding. W hat exactly does it mean to think critically? I will refer here to Robert Todd Carroll’s book Becoming A Critical Thinker10 and Greg R. Haskins’ online essay Practical Guide to Critical Thinking.11 Let us start with what critical thinking is not. Thinking critically does not mean think- ing negatively, being full of prejudices towards others who hold different opinions. It does not mean searching for mistakes or flaws. It is ability to evaluate arguments
  • 11. regardless of who conveyed them. Critical thinking is not an inborn gift, rather it is a skill that can be learned and improved. It is only indirectly related to knowledge or wisdom. A person who has acquired education in some field of study is not automatically equipped with critical thinking skills. These skills can be learned at school but they can be learned outside whichever educa- tional system as well. However, quality education should involve critical thinking. It is possible for two people to be equally intelligent and yet one of them could be better at analyzing facts, claims, making conclusions and decisions. Even the wisest scholar, scientist or the most experienced expert can be wrong in many of his or her assumptions. Science is an activity of obtaining understanding about the natural or social world and its indispensable part is persistent effort to correct and review what is already known. We can say that if science is aimed at better and fuller knowledge, critical thinking is activity aimed at better reasoning. A nother misconception about critical thinking is that it excludes emotions. Thinking cannot be re- duced to pure rationality. We use our emotions and intuition to help us critically decide what to do in certain situations, mainly because we are social beings. A critical thinker rather addresses reason, emotions and intui- tion as tools and knows when to use which of them. He or she is able to prioritize them according to particular context. Being critically aware does not imply being impersonal, cold or detached, it simply means to be more 9 KRUGER, J., DUNNING, D.: Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties of Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-assessments. In Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1999, Vol. 77, No. 6, p. 1121-1134. 10 CARROLL, R. T.: Becoming a Critical Thinker: A Guide for
  • 12. the New Millennium. Second Edition. Boston : Pearson Custom Publishing, 2004. 11 HASKINS, G. R.: A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://skepdic.com/essays/ Haskins.html>. Scientific literacy entails being able to read with understanding articles about science in the popular press and to engage in social conversation about the validity of the conclusions. Scientific literacy implies that a person can identify scientific issues underlying national and local decisions and express positions that are scientifically and technologically informed. A literate citizen should be able to evaluate the quality of scien- tific information on the basis of its source and the methods used to generate it. Scientific literacy also implies the capacity to pose and evaluate arguments based on evidence and to apply conclusions from such arguments appropriately”.7 This explanation is taken from National Science Education Standards. Critical thinking Critical thinking has been important since the very beginning of looking for answers. Willingness to ask the right questions and skills in identifying good sources is a necessary prerequisite to finding valu- able results. However, some critical awareness is crucial whenever a person uses the Internet. General users of the Internet can easily acquire false sense of being thoughtful. They can unconsciously mislead themselves that effort spent on searching information is equal to effort spent on thinking. Using the web search engine, reading online articles, gathering information or discussing in forums cannot be considered as a critical prac- tice. Interactivity is not by itself a process of reasoning, it is
  • 13. only engagement, investment of our attention. No significant conscious choices were made. Behavior of the Internet user is mainly facilitated by online search algorithms, technological protocols that adjust possible activity into predictable set of options. Users need to understand what to search, how to search and how to evaluate what they have found. For example, on child- related websites, the key word “vaccination” led to only 40% provaccination sites and 60% antivaccination sites. By contrast, “immunization” directed user to 98% provaccination sites and only 2% antivaccination sites. Due to Robert M. Wolfe and Lisa K. Sharp, “any use of the term “vaccination” during an Internet search is likely to expose a parent to a significant amount of antivaccination information”.8 Search patterns of a general user of the Internet can be driven by non-reflected emotional needs (such as anxiety, need for security) and not by natural curiosity. Critically thinking persons are aware of their own biases and are able to set their emotional needs aside, to look at the facts without prejudice, and with generally neutral attitude. They are able to distinguish “facts” (context free information) and “opinions” (context-based information saturated with/or derived from emotions and values). Critically illiterate persons are not aware of fallacies in their reasoning. They can easily give in to false arguments, like appeal to authority (Something is true because experts say so: “Researchers from Cochrane Collaboration also question long-term safety of vaccination. I would never get my child vaccinated”), appeal to popular belief (Something is true because ma- jority of people believe in it: “India is much more spiritual than the West”), appeal to ignorance (A claim is true because it has not been proven false: “Nobody has proved to me that there is extra-terrestrial life. We are alone in the Universe.”), appeal to fear (A n argument is based on
  • 14. provoking fear and prejudice towards the oppo- nents: “Do you want homosexuals to raise our children? They are sick and perverted!”), appeal to wishful thinking (A claim is perceived true because person strongly hopes in it: “Our prime minister is a good Slovak and caring leader, he would not be lying about that”) or others. With some simplification we can say that the difference between a critically aware person and uncriti- cal one lies in the readiness to challenge their own position. “Uncritical” thinker is critical to others in order to protect his or her own views, critical thinker is critical to views that are not supported with good arguments, despite who is holding them – laymen, scientists, authorities or institutions. Critically thinking persons are willing to change their opinions according to the facts, uncritical persons refuse to change their opinions despite the facts. 7 National Science Education Standards. Washington, DC : The National Academy Press, 1996, p. 22. 8 WOLFE, R. M., SHARP, L.K.: Vaccination or Immunization? The Impact of Search Terms on the Internet. In Journal of Health Communication: International Perspectives, 2005, Vol. 10, No. 6, p. 537-551. 10 Theoretical studies Communication Today Milder forms of flawed thinking manifest themselves as beliefs in conspiracy theories and pseudo- science. Beliefs in conspiracy theories are wide-spread in the broad media audience. They form influential subcultures outside the mainstream and they are becoming more and more popular. It is not something new,
  • 15. conspiratorial outlook on history, politics or science has always been attractive for some parts of the audi- ence (Umberto Eco devoted two of his novels to ironizing historical conspiracies – Foucault’s Pendulum and The Prague Cemetery). The essence of every conspiracy theory is an alternative interpretation of some event. It is retelling of official version of a well-known story that turns its elements and motives upside down. Typical examples include 9/11 conspiracy (A merican government planned to destroy the World Trade Center, the towers could not came down because of planes’ crash), The Moon Landing (USA never landed on the surface of Moon, whole event is fake and was filmed in studios), The Holocaust (due to conspirators, Holocaust never happened), A rea 51/Roswell (a UFO crashed near Roswell, New Mexico and A merican government kept it se- cret) or New World Order (a group of international elites controls and manipulates governments, industry and the media). Popular conspiracy theory in Slovakia is related to the cultural and historical icon Milan Rastislav Štefánik. Many people believe that this general was assassinated on the order of Edvard Beneš – his plane was intentionally shot down.14 However, some conspiracies were actually true, like Watergate involving A merican President Richard Nixon. Audience that believes in conspiracy theory of one kind is usually susceptible to other theories as well. Beliefs in conspiracies are a form of paranoid thinking about the society. Damian Thompson refers to this at- titude as “counterknowledge”.15 In view of Michael Barkun, bizarre conspiracy ideas might be attributed to the anxieties of “deeply shaken people, desperate to make sense of the shocking events”. Behind disparate con- spiracies there is the conviction that powerful, hidden, evil forces control human destinies. The locus of this evil lies outside the true community. The result is a worldview
  • 16. characterized by a sharp division between the realms of good and evil. Due to believers, nothing happens by accident, nothing is as it seems and everything is connected.16 Thus, popularity of conspiracy theories may be viewed as an unsuccessful, irrational attempt to control anxiety and fear from unpredictable events and random evil. Beliefs in conspiracy theories are closely associated with beliefs in pseudoscience. Pseudoscience offers an illusion of understanding without effort and without doubt. But its functions are probably deeper, pseudoscience may very well serve as a source of explanation (Creationism and Intelligent Design), control (Astrolog y) and mystery (Eastern theories of energ y systems of human body). But one can find that also in science (The Gene Theory, The Law of Demand, The A nthropic Cosmological Principle). Then what is the difference between science and pseudoscience? Stephen S. Carey explains that scientific method is a simple, three-step process, consisting of observing, explaining, and testing. Science investigates natural phenomena, from the physical to the biological to the social. In order to understand what is unclear, possible explanations for observational findings need to be proposed. Then they have to be tested if they are correct. Scientists de- sign experiments to determine whether the results actually match their predictions. If it happens, scientists have a good reason to believe their explanation is right. Scientific findings are open to revision and changes in scientific understanding are very common. They generally occur at the level of underlying explanation. By contrast, pseudoscience refuses to be tested. It does not adhere to the methods of science (accurate obser- vation, explanatory methods, designing experiments and testing claims). Pseudoscience is not self-correcting, it rarely changes much over time. W hile science produces new
  • 17. explanatory or theoretical findings, pseudosci- ence produces very little theory. Pseudoscientific research comes with spectacular claims for extraordinary abilities and events. In view of Carey, “Genuine science embraces skepticism; pseudoscience tends to view skepticism as a sign of narrow-mindedness”. Pseudoscience shows tendency to accept claims in the absence of solid scientific evidence in order to preserve sense of mystery.17 14 ČUPKA, M.: Prečo ľudia potrebujú konšpiračné bludy. [online]. [2014-01-26]. Available at: <http://zurnal.pravda.sk/spoloc- nost/clanok/306261-preco-ludia-potrebuju-konspiracne-bludy/>. 15 THOMPSON, D.: Counterknowledge: How we surrender to conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science, and fake history. New York, London : W. W. Norton & Company, 2008. 16 BARKUN, M. A.: Culture of Conspiracy. Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America. Berkeley, Los Angeles, London : Univer- sity of California Press, 2003, p. 2-4. 17 CAREY, S. S.: A Beginner’s Guide to Scientific Method. Fourth edition. Wadsworth Cencage Learning, 2010, p. 123-128. objective. It also does not mean adopting some set of beliefs. A person needs not to believe in critical thinking. Critical thinking is not a system of thought competing with religion. Some critical thinkers are atheists, some are agnostics, and some are theists. Forming opinions and decision making always implies considering values and norms. Critically thinking persons do not deny that. However, they are aware of this process; they know there is no such thing as perception of pure reality without the presence of an observer. There are almost always some personal factors interfering our
  • 18. perception and judgment (for example sociologists interested in social justice or natural scientist committed to par- ticular environmental agenda). It is rather typical for uncritical persons to be sure that they are objective, that they definitely “have” the truth like it could be some sort of property. The world should be like they believe and everyone who does not see it in the same way must be wrong. We all have uncritical parts of our minds, especially when it comes to consideration of issues with strong emotional content. A critical thinker should be able to detect when he or she is starting to loose neutrality. A person who wants to be a critical thinker has to adopt sort of intellectual humility, has to be acquainted with his or her limits and respect views of others. Critical thinkers tend to view the truth as a kind of perspective. Because different perspectives have different validity, they try to find out which one of them best matches or describes the reality. Sometimes the theory or concept is compound from several perspectives. These perspectives can or cannot be integrated into one functional model (for example, there is a Grand Unified Theory which attempts to integrate gravity with electromagnetic, weak and strong interactions in physics, or there are vari- ous complementary and contradicting theories of media violence in psychology and media studies). A n uncritical person usually expresses his or her opinion towards some issue or topic and then selec- tively searches for facts that support it (for example abortion laws, artificial insemination, gun control, GMO). A critical thinker clarifies his or her values, looks up all relevant facts (and tries his or her best not to dismiss uncomfortable ones) and then forms final opinion. Critical thinkers do not know which attitude they finally adopt. Freedom of thinking and quality of reasoning is valued more than loyalty to ideas important to some social groups. Rather than arguing with “right” or “wrong”, a critically aware person operates with terms like
  • 19. “valid” or “invalid”, examining if a certain claim is true, partially true or false. Critical thinking is aimed at reaching well-founded view points. So what exactly is critical thinking? Robert Todd Carroll clarifies that when we are thinking critically, we are using our knowledge and intelligence effectively to arrive at the most reasonable and justifiable position possible. Due to him, to think critically is to “think clearly, accurately, knowledgeably, and fairly while evaluating the reasons for a belief or for tak- ing some action”.12 Carroll explains that most important part of critical thinking is logic, epistemolog y, and ethics. Logic studies reasoning, epistemolog y studies the nature of knowledge and ethics studies morality of actions. Haskins expresses his conviction that critically thinking persons usually come to more relevant conclusions; they are better decision makers and more effective problem solvers. Becoming a critical thinker involves balancing between open-mindedness and healthy skepticism. Skepticism here is rather a method than an attitude. A critical thinker should be able to recognize and avoid critical thinking hindrances, to identify, characterize and evaluate arguments and to evaluate information sources.13 Conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, propaganda and alternative medicine Illiteracy or inability to evaluate information sources can seriously diminish capacity of public to pro- tect themselves from deception. Weakly educated audiences are supported in keeping their distorted view of reality as long as they form major consumer groups that are attractive for conspiracy publishers, authoritar- ian political regimes or alternative medicine industry. 12 CARROLL, R. T.: Becoming a Critical Thinker: A Guide for
  • 20. the New Millennium. Second Edition. Boston : Pearson Custom Publishing, 2004. 13 HASKINS, G. R.: A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://skepdic.com/essays/ Haskins.html>. 12 Theoretical studies Communication Today She measured and observed separation anxiety (how infant reacts when left by the caregiver), the infant’s de- sire to explore surroundings, anxiety from stranger figure and behavior when caregiver returned.20 Due to her findings, there are three possible attachment styles: secure attachment, insecure avoidant attachment and insecure ambivalent attachment. Securely attached children were associated with sensitive and responsive primary care. They have developed a positive working model of themselves. They trust others and tend to view them as being available, responsive, and helpful. They feel safe to explore. Infants with avoidant attachment were associated with unresponsive primary care. The child experienced that communication of needs had no influence on mother or father. Avoidant persons think about themselves as unworthy and unacceptable. They are very independent. Ambivalently attached children expe- rienced inconsistent primary care. Their needs were sometimes met and sometimes ignored. They have a negative self image and exaggerate their emotional responses in order to gain attention. These children failed to develop any feelings of security. They explored their surroundings less than other two types. Later, the fourth type of attachment was recognized, disorganized attachment style (confused and inconsistent attachment behavior).
  • 21. Insecure attachment correlates with anxiety and in ambivalent types with reduced exploring. There is probably connection between natural curiosity, ability to tolerate distress from unpleasant findings and secu- rity of early attachment. Bowlby even suggested defensive and selective exclusion of information from aware- ness as a defense mechanism observable in early age. It protects the individual from experiencing unbearable mental pain, confusion, or conflict. He also considered a situation when two sources of information are highly contradictory. In this case the person can experience a severe psychic conflict.21 Insecure attachment styles of certain individuals may affect their information searching patterns. They learned from very early age to cau- tiously and suspiciously monitor their environment for danger. Thus, reduced awareness and ability to search and critically evaluate information cannot be ascribed to deliberate ignorance. There may be reasons why cer- tain people distrust authority figures such as scholars, scientists, journalists or respected bloggers. Popularization of critical thinking in Slovakia Digital illiteracy, biased thinking, invalid reasoning or poor evaluation of new information sources is wide-spread and hard to counterbalance. Lack of metacognitive ability to realize one’s incompetence, anxiety from uncertainty and abundance of web sites that rather rely on affective than cognitive appeals, makes it even more difficult. Somewhat ironi- cally, the best way how to challenge digital illiteracy is to spread knowledge about proper reasoning via Internet. Notable contributions to popularization of critical thinking in Slovakia can be dated to 2010. Criti- cal thinking, as a part of wider domain of media education, was promoted by International Media Education Center (IMEC) founded in 2010 at the Faculty of Mass Media
  • 22. Communication of University of SS. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava. More specific approaches were related to other initiatives. On 12th of December 2010 non-governmental organization Manageria set up an event “Forum for Inspirational Ideas” with the theme “Critical Thinking”. Hundreds of guests, mostly students, had arrived. First part of happening was dedicated to presentation of various speakers, second part was designed for panel discussion between them and in the third part the audience could participate in discussing groups dedicated to various topics related to the main theme. On 28th of December of the same year, group of Internet debaters (Martin Bies, Peter Isteník and oth- ers) launched a web site Použime rozum (Use Your Reason). Their pages were intended as a reaction towards emerging popularity of conspiracy theories and pseudoscience. Their articles tried to popularize science and critical thinking, particularly evolutionary psycholog y and biolog y, information science, cognitive science and behavioral science. The authors intended to promote natural curiosity, proper reasoning and skepticism. Due to them, quality education leads to intellectual progress of the society. 22 The web site was active until 2013. 20 AINSWORTH, M. D., BELL, S. M.: Attachment, Exploration, and Separation: Illustrated by the Behavior of One- Year-Olds in a Strange Situation. In Child Development, 1970, Vol. 41, No. 1, p. 49-67. 21 BRETHERTON, I.: The Origins of Attachment Theory: John Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth. In Developmental Psychology, 1992, Vol. 28, No. 5, p. 759-775, 1992. 22 Použime rozum. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.pouzimerozum.sk/>.
  • 23. Public need for mystery and reassurance may be exploited not only by pseudoscientists but also by specialized marketers selling their esoteric, new age, metaphysical or occult merchandise or services (like crystal energ y stones, Geo-Pathogenic Zones protection shields, bio-energetic jewelry etc.). These products are nothing more than embodiment of pseudoscientific theories. Lack of critical awareness can be a more serious problem than harmless beliefs in conspiracy theories and pseudoscience – especially for democracy and general public health. The public cannot always be taken responsible for this. The next issue I would like to mention is propaganda. W hy do people believe in political utopia? The problem may lie in the fact that many politicians do not wish to serve public in the first place. They of- ten try to maintain their position and influence. Therefore they support the kind of agenda that is important for their electorate. Risk of success of propaganda is higher when political representatives play a double role: they formally express the need for justice and promote certain values appealing to public, but at the same time their very own actions contradict their proclaimed principles. Corruption, breaking the law, conviction that standard rules do not apply to them, spread distrust and contempt. Public is then much more vulnerable to manipulation via media propaganda. W hen dissatisfaction is strong enough and overtakes critical mass of public, the electorate often turns to radical political parties. W hen overall mood is being disappointment, the audience gives in to dangerous message: “no one is worth trusting”. In this condition the risk of losing crit- ical perspective and the rise propaganda is high. The audience is liable to believe in conspiracy theories and radical political solutions. This tendency encourages authoritarian politicians and their repressive systems.
  • 24. A nother threat is related to health. W hen health practitioners behave in an authoritarian way, when they do not arrange enough time for their patients, when they do not answer their questions and do not react to their concerns with empathy, they lose their trust. The patients would be looking elsewhere for the very first thing they needed mostly: hope and encouragement. W hen a person realizes he or she has a dangerous illness, loosing ability of critical judgment is very common. This situation is favorable for alternative medicine practi- tioners. Due to Paul Offit, alternative healers “provide natural remedies instead of artificial ones, comfort in- stead of distance, and individual attention instead of take-a- number-and-wait-your-turn inattention”.18 Offit states that alternative medicine is an aggressive industry with estimated amount of $34 billion annual profit. However, only about one-third of alternative therapies have ever been tested for their safety and efficacy.19 If the patient is scared from invasive treatments like chemotherapy, s/he is vulnerable to false promises. W hen s/he decides to try alternative therapy, s/he often finds relief. Positive emotions and expectations arise. But meanwhile, the illness behind “positive thinking” steadily progresses. At the time when a patient is so sick that s/he finally seeks regular health care, it is often too late even for effective treatments from conventional, evidence based medicine to help. Scared, anxious people uncritically accepting the myth of natural remedies are easy targets for “The Hope Business”, operating through the Internet and increasing their publics. Anxiety as a precondition for distrust From the overview of few key themes in critical thinking, we can assume that it is anxiety what lies behind some biased reasoning and flawed theories. W here does it come from? Developmental psycholog y rec-
  • 25. ognizes various types of attachment between primary carers (mostly mothers) and infants. Security of indi- vidual’s attachment in early age (until 2 or 3 years) influences his or her later self-worth, confidence, curiosity and overall sense of safety. A nxiety and distrust experienced in adult age may be related to the type of attachment that a person has formed as a child. Major proponents of attachment theory are John Bowlby and Mary A insworth. A insworth de- signed an experiment (called “Strange Situation”) to investigate various attachment types between children. 18 OFFIT, P. A.: Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and Nonsense of Alternative Medicine. Harper, 2013, p. 8. 19 NUWER, R.: Alternative Medicine Is a $34 Billion Industry, But Only One-Third of the Treatments Have Been Tested. [online]. [2013-06-18]. Available at: <http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/alternative- medicine-is-a-34-billion-industry-but-only-one-third- of-the-treatments-have-been-tested-879411/>. 14 Theoretical studies Communication Today Conclusions Can we recommend any basic guidelines for a general user of the Internet in order to stay critically aware? How to distinguish between various information sources? A simple model can be helpful here, let us call it “Pyramid of Credibility”. On the top of the pyramid there are the most reliable and credible sources: peer reviewed scientific magazines. A ny scientific article (paper) needs to be carefully scrutinized in terms
  • 26. of its originality, significance and contribution to the field. The reviewers are other experts in the field. This does not mean that everything what is published is flawless, but it does mean that it had passed testing for ap- propriate scientific standards. A published article is open to criticism and later evaluation. For example, an important criterion for overall quality of the study is replicability of the published findings. In this way, false or controversial results are recognized. Science has unique ability for self-correction. Suggestions how to read and understand a scientific paper, even for non-scientists, are available on the Internet. Access to scientific bibliographic databases can be obtained through libraries or educational institutions. A user of the Internet should be aware of scientists or scholars whose claims are directed to issues which do not belong to their field of study (A chemist cannot evaluate if vaccine ingredients such as aluminium are safe for human bodies). Papers which were not published in peer reviewed magazines are of much less significance. There is a high risk that they are flawed and usually this is the reason why they were not accepted in peer review process. A lso insti- tutions or authorities are not relevant for judging claims (for example, legal institutions like courts have no competence to confirm or disprove scientific claims). Second most reliable source (still in the higher part of pyramid), are quality media, both for profession- als or for general audience (quality press). In order to gain reputation, the quality media are expected to be socially responsible. They have codes of conduct and they are legally responsible for published information. Journalists cannot voluntary publish anything. They have to make sure if their information is correct. For ex- ample, in 2011 the BBC Trust published a seminal report on the broadcaster’s coverage of science. The author, Steve Jones, warned about “false balance” in the BBC’s
  • 27. reporting of scientific issues, caused by attempts to pay attention to anyone, however unqualified, who shows an interest.28 Rather unreliable sources are various blogs and web pages – third level according to credibility of sourc- es. Here, the Internet user has to be especially aware. One needs to ask important questions: Who is the author of the article? Is there any conflict of interest? (for example, physician who advocates alternative medicine has a private homeopathic practice). Is he an expert in the field he is writing about? Is he respected in related commu- nity of scholars and scientists? Does the article contain references to peer reviewed papers, academic, scientific or scholarly books? YouTube videos, various testimonies on forums and web pages referring to each other without any link or reference to primary source of information, are highly suspicious. Are the web pages that advocate new theories or findings associated with some products or services directly dedicated to sale? (for example, a web site about alkaline diet also sells dietary supplements like SuperGreens and Prime pH). If a user is not sure about reliability of information, he or she can use special keywords added to his/her online search to find out if there are any pages doubting its credibility (online search + “myth”, “debunked”, “quackery”, “skeptic”). The base of the pyramid is represented by testimonies or claims made by relatives, friends or acquaint- ances (“I know a person who...”, “I heard about a case where...”). It is the least credible source of information. Scientists and scholars refer to this reasoning as “anecdotal evidence”. A person uses an experience or an isolated example instead of an argument or scientific evidence. Because the sample is small, there is high prob- ability that information may be unreliable or biased (“My grandfather smoked a pack of cigarettes daily and
  • 28. lived until 89”). This type of evidence is irrelevant and yet most frequent. It should be avoided. Scientifically literate persons and critical thinkers evaluate information obtained from the Internet by these standards. It is not surprising that the Pyramid of Credibility of uncritical persons, fans of conspiracy theories or believers in pseudoscience, is turned upside down. The least credible sources are the most appeal- 28 Review of impartiality and accuracy of the BBC’s coverage of science. [online]. [2012-05-21]. Available at: <http://www.bbc. co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/editorial_standards/impartiality/scienc e_impartiality.html>. In 2013 a new popular magazine Zem a vek (The Earth and Era) appeared in Slovakia. Its audience consisted of fans of conspiracy theories. Behind the magazine stood Tibor Eliot Rostas, an artist, film and tel- evision director, journalist and former copy writer. The magazine offered harsh critique of capitalism, denied official interpretation of many historical events and some of its texts leaned towards xenophobic and racist views. Many articles were composed from what had already been circulating the Internet. Rostas’ infamous alternative news was also broadcasted through popular commercial Rádio Viva (Now Rádio Viva Metropol), spreading distrust and fear. A need for intellectual opposition between students, scientists, journalists (weekly magazine .týždeň), bloggers and community activists, was felt. Daily newspapers Pravda and Sme published articles about con- spiracy theories.23 This somewhat underground theme was officially recognized by quality press. Other initia- tives include Facebook groups Slovenskí skeptici (Slovakia Skeptics) and Slovenský klub skeptikov Darwin
  • 29. (Slovakian Skeptic Club Darwin). A respected activist in the critical thinking community in Slovakia is the blogger Matúš Ritomský.24 More specific reactions to pseudoscience and conspiracy theories are related to medicine. In 2013 two Facebook pages responded to dangerous anti-vaccination movement: community Neverím mýtom o škodlivosti očkovania (I don’t believe myths about harmful effects of vaccination) and science website Lovci šarlatánov (Hunters of charlatans). The second one was created by group of students of medicine and pharmacy finishing their studies along with young physicians from Košice (Maroš Rudnay, Kamil Knorovský, Roland Oravský, and Marek Vícha). Later it was extended with regular off-Facebook website w w w.lovcisarlatanov.sk. The project is similar to Quackwatch, its Facebook version reached 7,173 likes until now. Main intention of these activists was to stop health-related fallacies, absurd claims and apparent fraud- ulent products and services spreading around the Internet.25 Due to Roland Oravský, there are three groups of believers in charlatan theories. The first group consists of radicals who would not change their minds under any circumstances. The second group includes the moderates who are interested in methods in medicine and they are overall curious. They do not see conspiracy of pharmaceutical corporations behind everything. The third group is made up of people capable of critical thinking, who just do not know where the truth is. A nd this is their target audience. According to activists, it is the Internet, what helped charlatans to reach before unattainable publics.26 Maroš Rudnay explains that just as there is no such thing like alternative physics, alternative mathematics, biolog y or physiolog y, there is no alternative system operating
  • 30. in medicine. Methods of treatments either work, can be tested and reasonably explained, or do not work and make no sense. Success of many alternative treat- ments can be ascribed to placebo effect. However, the effectiveness of placebo is limited. There is a serious threat to health when a person relies on treatments that are irrational or confirmed as ineffective. Regarding health, the Internet is at the same time the best and the worst place for searching information. Maroš Rudnay concludes that teaching of critical thinking is absent in all levels of Slovak educational system. Due to him, a crucial part of education is ability to effectively search for information. Therefore, an Internet user needs to learn how to identify proper sources.27 23 ČUPKA, M.: Prečo ľudia potrebujú konšpiračné bludy. [online]. [2014-01-26]. Available at: <http://zurnal.pravda.sk/spoloc- nost/clanok/306261-preco-ludia-potrebuju-konspiracne-bludy/>; KREKOVIČ, M.: Konšpiračné teórie: všetko je inak. [online]. [2010-05- 06]. Available at: <http://www.sme.sk/c/5356884/konspiracne- teorie-vsetko-je-inak.html>. 24 ritomsky.sk. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.ritomsky.sk/>; Priestori – informácie, inšpirácie, ideály. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.priestori.sk/>. 25 Lovci šarlatánov. Skoncujme so záplavou medicínskych nezmyslov, absurdít a očividných podvodov, ktoré sa dennodenne kopia a pribúdajú na rôznych weboch, diskusiách a fórach. [online]. [2014-07-08]. Available at: <http://www.lovcisarlatanov.sk/>. 26 Lovci šarlatánov: Nezmysel o prekyslení organizmu je nezničiteľný. [online]. [2014-03-14]. Available at: <http://tech.sme. sk/c/7136022/lovci-sarlatanov-nezmysel-o-prekysleni-
  • 31. organizmu-je-neznicitelny.html>. 27 JASLOVSKÝ, M.: Lovec šarlatánov Maroš Rudnay: Výučba kritického myslenia u nás úplne absentuje. [online]. [2014-06- 19]. Available at: <http://blog.mindshare.sk/2014/06/19/rozhovory/lovec- sarlatanov-maros-rudnay-vyuka-kritickeho-myslenia-u-nas- uplne- absentuje/>. 16 Theoretical studies Communication Today BIBLIOGR A PHY: A INSWORTH, M. D., BELL, S. M.: Attachment, Exploration, and Separation: Illustrated by the Behavior of One-Year- Olds in a Strange Situation. In Child Development, 1970, Vol. 41, No. 1, p. 49-67. ISSN 0009-3920. BA RKU N, M. A.: Culture of Conspiracy. Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America. Berkeley, Los A ngeles, London : University of California Press, 2003. ISBN 0-520-23805-2. BRETHERTON, I.: The Origins of Attachment Theory: John Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth. In Developmental Psycholog y, 1992, Vol. 28, No. 5, p. 759-775. ISSN 0012-1649. CAREY, S. S.: A Beginner’s Guide to Scientific Method. Fourth edition. Wadsworth Cencage Learning, 2010. ISBN 1-111- 30555-2. CA RROLL, R. T.: Becoming a Critical Thinker: A Guide for the New Millennium. Second Edition. Boston : Pearson Custom Publishing, 2004. ISBN 978-0536859341. ČUPK A, M.: Prečo ľudia potrebujú konšpiračné bludy. [online]. [2014 -01-26]. Available at: <http://zurnal.pravda.sk / spolocnost/clanok /306261-preco-ludia-potrebuju-konspiracne- bludy/>. GÁ LIK, S., CENK Á, R.: Twilight of Christianity in tele-view
  • 32. of the world. From homo religiosus to homo videns. In Euro- pean Journal of Science and Theolog y, 2013, Vol. 9, No. 5, p. 225-236. ISSN 1841-0464. H ASK INS, G. R.: A Practical Guide to Critical Thinking. [online]. [2014 -07-08]. Available at: <http://skepdic.com/es- says/Haskins.html>. JASLOVSKÝ, M.: Lovec šarlatánov Maroš Rudnay: Výučba kritického myslenia u nás úplne absentuje. [online]. [2014 -06- 19]. Available at: <http://blog.mindshare.sk /2014/06/19/rozhovory/lovec-sarlatanov-maros-rudnay-v yuka- kritick- eho-myslenia-u-nas-uplne-absentuje/>. K AČINOVÁ, V., KOLČÁ KOVÁ, V., PETR A NOVÁ, D.: Axiocentric media education as a strategy for the cultivation of media recipients. In European Journal of Science and Theolog y, 2014, Vol. 10, No. 1, p. 103-116. ISSN 1841-0464. K REKOVIČ, M.: Konšpiračné teórie: všetko je inak. [online]. [2010-05-06]. Available at: <http://w w w.sme. sk /c/5356884/konspiracne-teorie-vsetko-je-inak.html>. K RUGER, J., DU NNING, D.: Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Dif ficulties of Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-assessments. In Journal of Personality and Social Psycholog y, 1999, Vol. 77, No. 6, p. 1121-1134. ISSN 0022-3514. Lovci šarlatánov: Nezmysel o prekyslení organizmu je nezničiteľný. [online]. [2014 -03-14]. Available at: <http://tech.sme. sk /c/7136022/lovci-sarlatanov-nezmysel-o-prekysleni- organizmu-je-neznicitelny.html>. Lovci šarlatánov. Skoncujme so záplavou medicínskych nezmyslov, absurdít a očividných podvodov, ktoré sa dennodenne kopia a pribúdajú na rôznych weboch, diskusiách a fórach. [online]. [2014 -07-08]. Available at: <http://w w w.lovcisarla- tanov.sk />. National Science Education Standards. Washington, DC : The
  • 33. National Academy Press, 1996. ISBN 0-309-05326-9. NU W ER, R.: Alternative Medicine Is a $34 Billion Industry, But Only One-Third of the Treatments Have Been Tested. [online]. [2013-06-18]. Available at: <http://w w w.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/alternative-medicine-is-a-34 -bil- lion-industry-but-only-one-third-of-the-treatments-have-been- tested-879411/>. N YH A N, B., REIFLER, J., RICHEY, S., FREED, G. L.: Ef fective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial. In Pediatrics, 2014, Vol 133, No. 4, p. 835-842. ISSN 0031- 4005. OFFIT, P. A.: Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and Nonsense of Alternative Medicine. Harper, 2013. ISBN 9780062223005. PETR A NOVÁ, D.: Rozvíja mediálna výchova v školách kritické kompetencie žiakov?, In Communication Today, 2011, Vol. 2, No. 1, s. 66-83. ISSN 1338-130X. PLENCNER, A.: A ktuálne témy v kritike masovej a populárnej kultúry. In MOR AVČÍKOVÁ, E. (ed.): Kultúra v premenách globalizácie. Nitra : Univerzita Konštantína Filozofa v Nitre, 2012, s. 295-311. POTTER, W. J.: Media Literacy. Third Edition. Thousand Oaks, New Delhi, London : Sage Publications 2005. ISBN 1-4129-0989-9. Použime rozum. [online]. [2014 -07-08]. Available at: <http://w w w.pouzimerozum.sk />. Priestori – informácie, inšpirácie, ideály. [online]. [2014 -07- 08]. Available at: <http://w w w.priestori.sk />. Review of impartiality and accuracy of the BBC’s coverage of science. [online]. [2012-05-21]. Available at: <http://w w w. bbc.co.uk /bbctrust/our_work /editorial_standards/impartiality/science_impartiality.html>. ritomsky.sk. [online]. [2014 -07-08]. Available at: <http://w w w.ritomsky.sk />.
  • 34. ing to them and the best verified ones are highly suspicious in their eyes. W hat can we do about that? Is there any proper way of communication that could be effective, if only partially? For example, persuasion of parents resistant to vaccination is highly unsuccessful.29 I would like to enclose my article with recommendation that is based on psychology of communication. Reading discussions between critical thinkers and laymen favoring pseudoscience, there is one clear misconcep- tion in critical thinkers – that uncritical audience can be persuaded by reasoning and evidence. And if they do not, they must be simply ignorant. But behind almost every questionable behavior there is a positive attitude. There are reasons why persons believe in something that is harmful for them. They just did not find a better way how to address their feelings of helplessness, confusion and anxiety. It is a coping strategy. Ignoring internal reasons even for bizarre beliefs predictably leads to feelings of rejection and makes all persuasion impossible. One way how to respect the opponent is selective ignorance of his or her disrespectful behavior and lack of knowledge. The person needs to respect others even if they do not respect him. This is rarely seen in the discussions. A critical thinker is ready to immediately point to rhetorical fallacies of the opponent (argu- mentum ad hominem argumentum ad populum, etc.). But understanding and avoiding fallacies are meant to improve my thinking, not reasoning of the others. I cannot force others to think and behave rationally. This only triggers defense mechanisms. Honest self-reflection after criticism is a cultural myth. In reality, regard- less if a person is right or wrong, anytime he or she is being accused, it is perceived as a threat. Emotions are stronger than reasoning because of their survival function (one needs to react immediately, lengthy thinking
  • 35. about danger could lead to death). So the criticized person easily loses control in the debate. Older parts of the brain take control and one of the three reactions occur: fight, flight or freeze response. Since the Internet offers sense of safety (there is no direct face to face confrontation on the Internet, in some forums it is possible to stay anonymous), fight is the most typical reaction here (expressed as trolling and flaming). A critical thinker is reaffirmed in his assumption that it is pointless to discuss with radicals. However, even if he or she does not succeed in persuasion efforts and reasoning, there are others who are reading and watching the discussion. If they are laymen, they would be affected more by emotions in the debate than by arguments. Being ironic or sarcastic back fires any honest educational purposes. It is a form of aggressiveness. A critical thinker then can find himself or herself in a position of persuading of already persuaded. It is the same situation like in communities centered around various ideologies. How to avoid this trap? The first step in overcoming objections is listening to opponent. W hat is the matter of disagreement? W hat she opposes and refuses to accept? Second step is expressing of understanding (empathy). A critical thinker should express that if s/he is in the situation of his/her opponent, s/he would probably feel and react the same way (“If I had such bad experience with health care system and doctors and read those articles about corruption of pharmaceutical corporations and dangers of vaccination, I would also hesitate to believe in the safety of vaccines.”). Only in the third step a critical thinker can try to overcome objections, use his reasoning and skills to support his case and explain his point of view. In the last, fourth step, he can ask if his explana- tions were satisfactory or if there are any questions left. He needs to respect if the opponent refuses to change
  • 36. or challenge their own views. The first two steps are often omitted. A critical thinker passes right into arguing. In this way, it is hard to persuade even persons who are hesitating and undecided. Social skills are equally important as thinking skills. Critical thinkers cannot put their faith into power of their sole reasoning, into their tools and methods. They need to earn respect and trust as the persons as well. Without them, all persuasive communication intended to inspire healthier choices, would be ineffective. It is blind submission to defensive emotions (fear, anger) and lack of awareness that can be considered as a root of illiteracy. However, only by recognizing the value of emotions, and acceptance of personal reasons for keep- ing certain beliefs, the reasoning and growth of awareness is possible. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by the grant of the Grant Agency of Science VEGA, No. 2/0187/12 29 NYHAN, B., REIFLER, J., RICHEY, S., FREED, G. L.: Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial. In Pediat- rics, 2014, Vol. 133, No. 4, p. 835-842. 18 Theoretical studies Communication Today THOMPSON, D.: Counterknowledge: How we surrender to conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science, and fake history. New York, London : W. W. Norton & Company, 2008. ISBN 978-0-393-07046-0. WOLFE, R. M., SHA RP, L.K.: Vaccination or Immunization? The Impact of Search Terms on the Internet. In Journal
  • 37. of Health Communication: International Perspectives, 2005, Vol. 10, No. 6, p. 537-551. ISSN 1081-0730. ©Copyright 2004 Critical Core, Inc. Making decisions in an uncertain world: Intuition vs analysis Jane E. Mather, Ph.D. President, Critical Core, Inc. Prepared for Occupiers Property Databank Annual Conference, February 2004 "Truly successful decision making relies on a balance between deliberate and instinctive thinking." Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. No where is there a better example of this than in the world of corporate real estate and facilities management. In a world of continuous change, corporate real estate executives need good intuitive strategies and reasoned decision making. Experienced real estate professionals have consistently demonstrated well-honed skills for intuitively identifying the right strategies. During
  • 38. negotiations, quick calculations can be invaluable. Nevertheless, as other corporate disciplines increase the sophistication of their analysis, senior executives have begun to expect the same from real estate professionals. They still want simple summaries, but they want to be sure that there is reasoned analysis behind them. They want real estate professionals to set targets and demonstrate that they are achieving them. In addition, in a world of change, they must explain the risks of their recommendations, This presentation addresses how portfolio managers and strategic planners can make better decisions in an uncertain business environment. It considers when intuition is sufficient and when a more detailed analysis can be beneficial. After a review of some of the basic issues in decision making in an uncertain environment, it turns to some typical strategies for managing uncertainty to show which of those can benefit from a more technical analysis. Then it addresses the role of metrics in decision making and demonstrating performance.
  • 39. Role of costs in decision making In workplace decisions, the goal is to identify the solution that provides the best balance of productivity enhancement, cost control, and risk minimization. While these goals are widely recognized, most of our decision making revolves around costs. In some situations, costs maybe taking too central a role. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 2 Costs versus productivity. It’s important to remember the relative role of real estate in the organization. Workplace costs per person, which typically include real estate, facility operations, and furniture costs, and should also include workplace-specific data and telecommunication costs, can range from £4,000 to £8,000 per person. At the same time, the salary and benefits of the person, which reflect the productivity added by the worker using those workplace assets, can range from £20,000 to £80,000 per person. Thus a 5% reduction in
  • 40. costs, which would total £200 to £400 per person, would not be warranted if it led to even a 1% reduction in productivity. Costs versus risk. Much of the decision making in an uncertain business environment reflects the trade-off between cost and risks. Often it can be considered within the framework of whether the insurance that provides flexibility is worth the cost. There are two primary approaches for evaluating these trade-offs: expected net present value, which assigns probabilities to various outcomes, and simulations, which demonstrate the range of possible outcomes. We have used expected net present value analysis to evaluate the appropriate term lengths and options for leases in different situations. This analysis will be described in the section on how analytical approaches can be used to evaluate different approaches to managing uncertainty. Simulation approaches can be beneficial in a number of
  • 41. situations. As financial analysis has become so central to decision making, simulations can help us understand whether the estimated cost differences are really meaningful within the context of uncertain assumptions. They can also identify the risks that accompany a recommendation, for example, a long term lease might reduce costs, but might lead to additional costs if that space is not needed in the future. Figure 2 shows how a simulation analysis can identify the relative costs and risks. Decision makers might determine that solution 3 is the best, but they need to note that the reduced cost comes with the risk of higher costs in some situations. From a technical perspective, simulation analysis is most beneficial when the range of potential outcomes is not symmetrical, for example, due to limits on price changes, such as upward only rent reviews, or due limits on losses, such as cancellation options.
  • 42. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 3 We’ve used simulations and related techniques to price cancellation, contraction, and expansion options, that is, to identify the increase in rent that a landlord should charge or a tenant should be willing to pay. As described by Tony Key in his presentation at last year’s conference, these approaches typically do not add much more value than intuition. In our projects, our estimates have shown that the tenant ought to be willing to pay £5 to £12 per square meter ($1 to $2 per square foot) for various options. The exact pricing is difficult because we do not have sufficient information to accurately estimate the likelihood of various market rent trends in the future. These techniques can be beneficial when decision makers need to demonstrate that an option is worth at least a specific price, but they don’t provide sufficient information to provide an exact value. Thus intuition is often sufficient for evaluating real estate options. Strategies for managing uncertainty The first step in assessing decision making is to review various
  • 43. strategies than can help manage the uncertainty. In this section, we review some suggested strategies for managing Figure 1. Simulations enable planners to review the costs and risks of each solution $150 $156 $160 $170 $140 $180 Occupancy Costs (millions) $130 $164 Expected cost for solution 3 - $150 mil. Expected cost for solution 1 - $164 mil. Expected cost for
  • 44. solution 2 - $156 mil. Each box shows range of costs for one decile (10%) of cost outcomes. $150 $156 $160 $170 $140 $180 Occupancy Costs (millions) $130 $164 Expected cost for solution 3 - $150 mil. Expected cost for solution 1 - $164 mil. Expected cost for solution 2 - $156 mil. Each box shows range of costs for one decile (10%)
  • 45. of cost outcomes. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 4 uncertainty and assess when more sophisticated analysis approaches can add value to implementing these strategies. The strategies considered include: • Better headcount forecasts, • Duration matching • More flexible work environments • Clustering Better headcount forecasts. Many organizations have tried to manage uncertainty by trying to develop better headcount forecasts and thus reduce uncertainty. Unfortunately, business unit executives are generally uncomfortable providing a one-year forecast, while real estate professions are looking for three to five year forecasts. Some real estate professionals have suggested quantitative approaches for headcount
  • 46. forecasting. They range from relating headcount forecasts to revenue projections, if available, to complex econometric time-series methodologies. Certainly business unit revenue forecasts and headcount forecasts are beneficial, but most of the more complex forecasting methodologies provide few insights within the real estate context. As with option pricing, planners generally do not have sufficient data to make use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. Spending more time talking with the businesses, combined with intuition, will reap more benefits. As part of these discussions, corporate real estate executives should on focus on achieving a better understanding of the range of possible outcomes. For those who want a more systematic approach to specifying these ranges, we suggest a review of the historical values specified in Figure 2. This matrix highlights the different types of business units and the types of historical information about employment and revenues that can be beneficial.
  • 47. With this understanding of the possible future scenarios, planners can intuitively specify lease terms and options to provide the flexibility needed to match the wide range of business outcomes, as illustrated in Figure 3. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 5 Duration matching. In an uncertain environment, most real estate professionals recognize that the low-cost long-term lease is not always the best solution. Many have suggested shorter-term leases to provide the needed flexibility and some have suggested “duration matching” as one approach to identify the appropriate lease term. Duration matching in real estate is similar to this concept within the financial sector. This approach stresses the importance of matching the duration of the lease to the demand uncertainty, shorter leases for more uncertain business environments. Some go further and recommend that the lease term match the expected life
  • 48. cycle for the business or product. While the former is certainly true, the more specific focus on the product life cycle can lead to too much flexibility because other factors are not being considered. Evaluating lease term lengths and ownership structure depends on whether the real estate executive is looking at individual properties, such as field sales offices, or a portfolio of properties within a city or considering a portfolio of “fungible” properties whose activities can be relocated among the properties, for example, a campus or a number of call center facilities. For individual properties, analytical models using probabilities can be used to identify the appropriate term lengths and options. Landlords charge more for shorter-term leases due to the amortization of tenant improvement costs and a premium to compensate the landlord for the risk Figure 2. Historical workforce and revenue characteristics for estimating the range of outcomes Range of Rates of Change for Workforce / Revenue Business
  • 49. Unit Categories Share of Workforce Average Recession Recovery Mature business units - stable, low variance Mature business units - cyclical, high variance Timing for Workforce / Revenue Average rate of change Time to maturity Time to closure New, growing business unit Contracting business unit Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 6
  • 50. of having to release the space at the end of the term. Probability analysis show when an organization should be willing to pay more to eliminate the risk of be caught with excess space. A formal term length and option analysis can be completed by considering the relative costs of space with different term lengths and options, the tenant- specific improvements, market rent forecasts, and the historical probabilities that the tenant of this type will want to move. With these estimates, one can identify when the probability of moving is sufficiently high to warrant a short-term lease, and when the probability of staying is sufficiently high to suggest the long-term lease. In the situation described in Figure 4, the probability of staying that would warrant a longer lease term (in this case from 3 to 6 years) ranged from 40% to 60%. In other words, even if the tenant had only a 60% chance of staying it would be better to choose the longer lease. (The analysis in the UK is likely to be different in the US because the US has had a Figure 3. Matching supply to range of outcomes with staggered leases and
  • 51. options Cancellation option for Lease F Square Feet (millions) Owned Space 4 2 20 04 20 08 Building planned for owned land 1 20 06 20 10 3
  • 52. Leased Space Expansion option for Lease C Bldg A Bldg B Lease D Lease C Lease E Lease F Lease G Space required with forecasted growthLease H Space required with high-growth scenario Legend Planned building Expansion option Cancellation option Leased space Owned space
  • 53. Space required with low-growth scenario 20 12 Cancellation option for Lease F Square Feet (millions) Owned Space 4 2 20 04 20 08 Building planned for owned land 1 20
  • 54. 06 20 10 3 Leased Space Expansion option for Lease C Bldg A Bldg B Lease D Lease C Lease E Lease F Lease G Space required with forecasted growthLease H Space required with high-growth scenario
  • 55. Legend Planned building Expansion option Cancellation option Leased space Owned space Legend Planned building Expansion option Cancellation option Leased space Owned space Legend Planned building Expansion option Cancellation option Leased space Owned space Space required with low-growth scenario 20 12 Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 7 stronger push for short-term leases to provide flexibility than in the UK.) The challenge in this
  • 56. case is gaining the trust from senior executives, that if your organization is left with excess space, they would understand that the decision was based on sound analysis that considered this risk. As illustrated in this analysis, term length analysis should go beyond the life cycle of the business activity and also reflect amount of tenant specific improvements within a space. One of the primary downsides of a short-term lease is the need to renew the lease if the tenant decides to stay. When there are tenant specific improvements, the tenant is at a disadvantage because the landlord knows it will cost a great deal to recreate these improvements at another location. There are many examples in which the amount of tenant specific improvements drives the approach to flexibility. For example, a leading high-tech manufacturing company has production plants with products that have very short, and uncertain, product life cycles. They don’t follow
  • 57. the pure duration matching example and negotiate a short-term lease. Instead they own these properties since these factories are core to their business and they can be retooled to meet future business needs. They understand that if they leased the property and decided to renew, they would be in a very poor negotiating position. Figure 4. Probabilities of staying that warrant longer lease terms 6-year lease, no cancellation option 3-year lease, no credit for TI amortization 6-year lease, canc. penalty = unamort TI + 1 year gross rent 3-year lease, fixed renewal rate ½ credit for TI amortization Tenant Improvement Requirements $25 / sf $40 / sf $75 / sfLease Comparisons 62% 50% 35%
  • 58. 60% 50% 40% 6-year lease, no cancellation option 3-year lease, no credit for TI amortization 6-year lease, canc. penalty = unamort TI + 1 year gross rent 3-year lease, fixed renewal rate ½ credit for TI amortization Tenant Improvement Requirements $25 / sf $40 / sf $75 / sfLease Comparisons 62% 50% 35% 60% 50% 40% Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 8 Some organizations are increasing their lease flexibility through portfolio contracts with real estate owners. These contracts enable the tenants to give back a certain amount of space across their portfolio as part of the contract. As in the case of shorter lease lengths, this
  • 59. flexibility comes at a cost. In this case, the landlord or owner may not need to charge as much for the flexibility because they are able to limit the cost across portfolios and because they may win leases that they would not otherwise have gotten because of the opportunity to be part of this more flexible national contracts. More flexible work environments. Many organizations have increased the flexibility of their portfolios by providing more flexible work environments, through strategies such as hotelling, or some other form of shared officing, and more standardized space. Both of these situations achieve flexibility by limiting the extent to which the space is customized to the occupant. Some organizations that have implemented hotelling approaches have found that the cost reduction was minimal but that true benefits were the increased flexibility they achieved during tight real estate markets and the increased worker satisfaction of those who appreciated the ability to work remotely.
  • 60. Clustering. While it is important to understand the demand uncertainty for individual spaces, it is less important when considering a group of fungible properties. Large organizations can consolidate activities into one general location, for example, within a campus or collection of buildings. Then the risk that any one individual business unit needs more or less space can be diversified across other business units. While one group is growing another might be shrinking. Once more, the lease term does not need to match the specific life cycle for a project. Over the years, we’ve seen significant improvement in organization taking advantage of the benefits of consolidation. In major locations, most organizations no longer let individual business units go out on their own to secure properties. At the same time, this approach can be taken too far. When there are significant moving costs and reconfiguration costs to support different business needs, the benefits of consolidation may be less than costs. In addition, users need to consider their need to diversify activities across
  • 61. locations. CoreNet Global’s Core 2010 resource classifications present a concept that complements clustering. In this case, the workplace organization classifies its the properties based on their “commitment” to the overall property portfolio, identifying those properties that are core to the Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 9 portfolio and other properties which are more “flexible” and easier to dispose of if not needed. In this way, when companies are making long-term plans they can focus their major investments in core properties and avoid decisions to make major investments in “flexible” properties. At the same time, they need to ensure that they have enough short-term flexible space to respond to changing business requirements. The challenge in these situations is identifying the right balance of owned properties, long-term leases, and short-term leases. Generally, a good balance can be achieved intuitively, for
  • 62. example, by using an approach similar to that shown earlier in Figure 3. In other disciplines, optimization modeling for inventory management and supply chain management provide key insights into setting the appropriate capacity when there demand is uncertain. These techniques, which combine financial modeling and management science, have enabled organizations to save millions of dollars. We are starting to do some analysis in this area but don’t have any clear findings on our ability to find better solutions using this approach. Once a business has developed a cluster of properties, it can be a very complex analysis process to determine how to best relocate business activities when business requirements change. In these situations, we have found significant added value of through more sophisticated analysis approaches. To evaluate these situations, we have developed proprietary software that extends the optimization modeling
  • 63. techniques mentioned above. Like internet search engines that quickly and systematically search through millions of web sites, mathematical optimization techniques quickly search through the possible relocations to find the set that best meet the user’s goals and requirements. This approach goes beyond databases and spreadsheets, enabling users to consider millions of different combinations of real estate relocation, construction and other workplace activities to find the combination that best meet their goals. The savings from better analysis in this area can be in the millions. In a back-office consolidation for a financial services firm, we identified a solution that met all the business requirements, would have reduced labor and real estate costs by over $20 million, and would have reduced the number of lay-offs required by one-third through better relocation of activities to locations where workers can be retrained for new positions. In another situation, the
  • 64. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 10 consolidation of two financial firms’ properties within one city, we identified a solution that saved $16 million by relocating activities into spaces that required less reconfiguration and freeing up space that had greater sublease value. In some cases, we find the same solutions that we identified intuitively. The advantage of optimization modeling in these situation is that it provides a systematic framework to include all relevant factors and enables users to quickly try many different alternatives. This process also enables real estate executives to show senior executives that they have considered all of the possible alternatives. Metrics “The single most important reason why corporate real estate executives and facilities managers fail to have an influence in the boardroom is that they lack the information to demonstrate that they are doing a great job.” Christopher Hedley, “Getting to grips with information.”
  • 65. Increasingly, senior executives are evaluating the performance of workplace organizations through selected metrics. This trend is likely to accelerate amid greater concern over corporate accountability. To the extent that decision makers are evaluated on these metrics, they also drive decision making While workplace organizations recognize that success depends on more than costs, costs continue to receive the greatest focus. A common metric is the cost per person housed or served. To explain performance, this metrics can be decomposed into three primary components. Changes in each of these components drives changes in occupancy costs. Consistent measures. To provide valuable measures of performance and to motivate good decisions, metrics need be consistent and accurately reflect cost differences. Often the information for these metrics resides in separate, tactically- focused databases. Combining data
  • 66. from different systems can lead to multiple values for the same data and inconsistencies. Before workplace executives can demonstrate performance, they need address more resources to making sure that their data meets both their strategic needs as well as their tactical needs. Cost Persons Housed Cost Square Foot Square Foot Seat = Seats Persons Housed * * Cost Persons Housed Cost Square Foot Square Foot Seat =
  • 67. Seats Persons Housed * * Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 11 One of the areas that is most often mismeasured is the cost of capital, as measured in the cost of owned properties relative to leased properties. Most organization now require a discounted net present value analysis for major decisions. Through this approach, the analysis explicitly reflects the fact that if the capital wasn’t invested in the workplace assets, it could be invested elsewhere. Yet, when it comes to metrics and chargebacks, the cost of capital that is measured in the discount rate is ignored. The cost of owned property often only includes depreciation, operating expenses, and property taxes. There is no charge for capital invested; it’s like having a mortgage with zero interest. When performance is based on calculations involving these measures, this oversight can drive
  • 68. poor decisions. Within the workplace organization, business considerations may suggest leasing property but the performance metrics will be lower if the properties are owned. For business units occupying the real estate, owned properties may look less expensive as well. For example, a real estate organization for a financial service firm recommended that some business units relocate from Manhattan to less expensive locations in New Jersey. Once this space was vacated, they would then be able to lease the space to outside tenants at the current high market rates. But because the business unit was being charged only depreciation and operating expenses, its costs in Manhattan appeared less than those in New Jersey. But once the real estate organization shifted their charges for owned properties to be market rates, the business unit’s cost reflected the true opportunity cost, and the business unit leaders readily agreed that New Jersey was a smart move. A key challenge in demonstrating good performance is being able to explain why any negative
  • 69. changes are not the result of poor performance. It is not sufficient to say that increasing costs reflect circumstances beyond the workplace organization’s control. Executives need to be able to show that these negative results were anticipated, and that the cost to avoid them was too great compared to the benefits. Better comparative data and more comprehensive decision making, including some of the techniques described earlier, will help in these explanations. As part of this process, workplace organization are not just responsible for reporting these measures, they also must be able to set targets and then explain the differences when the targets aren’t met. Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 12 Setting the targets for these metrics can be even more challenging than explaining them. While it might seem possible to use the simple decomposition specified earlier to set targets,
  • 70. this approach can lead to unrealistic forecasts for improvement, setting the workplace organization up for failure. Figure 5 shows the results of implementing a hotelling system to reduce space usage estimated through the simple metrics and through a more comprehensive analysis approach. While the simple analysis projects significant cost savings, the comprehensive model shows almost no change. The simple analysis did not take into account the implementation costs and the limited opportunities for disposing of the excess space. Conclusion Workplace organizations generally lag behind their counterparts in other corporate disciplines in adopting more sophisticated analysis approaches. In this paper, we’ve described several ways in which workplace decisions can be improved: • Focus on a range of outcomes rather than point estimates • Use probabilities and simulations to compare costs and risks Figure 5. Metrics forecasts vs comprehensive forecasts for cost reductions
  • 71. through increasing hotelling implementation $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Init ial 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 C os
  • 72. t / P H Business As Usual, Costs Grow, No Relocation New Guidelines, Consolidation with Amortized Initial Costs New Guidelines, Consolidation no Initial Costs Forecast from Metrics Making Decisions in an Uncertain World p. 13 • Consider both product life cycles and tenant-specific improvements in setting ownership structure and lease terms • Cluster properties and identify those that are core to the organization • Ensure that metrics are consistent
  • 73. • Use comprehensive models, not metrics, for forecasts These recommendations and the related analytical approaches can lead to better decisions and the ability to demonstrate the value of the workplace organization. Even if workplace executives can identify good recommendations intuitively, senior executives are demanding more accountability and that will require more comprehensive analysis. Common misconceptions of critical thinking SHARON BAILIN, ROLAND CASE, JERROLD R. COOMBS and LEROI B. DANIELS In this paper, the ® rst of two, we analyse three widely-held conceptions of critical thinking: as one or more skills, as mental processes, and as sets of procedures. Each view is, we contend, wrong-headed, misleading or, at best, unhelpful. Some who write about critical thinking seem to muddle all three views in an unenlightening me lange. Apart from the errors or inadequacies of the conceptions themselves, they promote or abet misconceived practices for teaching critical thinking. Together, they have led to the view that critical thinking is best taught by practising it. We
  • 74. o� er alternative proposals for the teaching of critical thinking. Critical thinking is a subject of considerable current interest, both in terms of theory and pedagogy. A great deal is written about critical thinking, conferences on the subject abound, and educational initiatives aimed at fostering critical thinking proliferate.1 It is our view that much of the theoretical work and many of the pedagogical endeavours in this area are misdirected because they are based on faulty conceptions of critical think- ing. Critical thinking is frequently conceptualized in terms of skills, pro- cesses, procedures and practice. Much of the educational literature either refers to cognitive or thinking skills or equates critical thinking with certain mental processes or procedural moves that can be improved through practice. In this paper we attempt to explain the misconceptions inherent in such ways of conceptualizing critical thinking. It is important to note that much of the literature contains a pervasive miasma of overlapping uses of such terms as skill, process, procedure, behaviour, mental operations, j. curriculum studies, 1999, vol. 31, no. 3, 269± 283 S haron Bailin, a professor in the Faculty of Education, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby,
  • 75. British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6, is interested in philosophical inquiries into critical thinking, creativity and aesthetic education. Her publications include Reason and V alues: New Essays in Philosophy of Education (Calgary, AB: Detselig, 1993), co-edited with John P. Portelli. Roland Case, an associate professor in the Faculty of Education, Simon Fraser University, conducts research in social studies and legal and global education. His most recent book is The Canadian Anthology of Social S tudies: Issues and S trategies (Burnaby, BC: Faculty of Education, Simon Fraser University), co-edited with Penney Clark. Jerrold R. Coombs, a professor in the Faculty of Education, University of British Columbia, has published extensively on ethical issues in education and the development of competence in practical reasoning. His publications include Applied Ethics: A Reader (Oxford: Black- well, 1993), co-edited with Earl R. Winkler. L eRoi B. Daniels, a professor emeritus in the Faculty of Education, University of British Columbia, is interested in philosophy of mind and legal education. He is currently editing (with Roland Case) the `Critical Challenges Across the Curriculum’ series (Burnaby, BC: Faculty of Education, Simon Fraser University). Journal of Curriculum S tudies ISSN 0022± 0272 print/ISSN 1366± 5839 online Ñ 1999 Taylor & Francis Ltd http://www.tandf.co.uk/JNLS/cus.htm http://www.taylorandfrancis.com/JNLS/cus.htm
  • 76. etc. We thus ® nd similar kinds of error and confusion about critical thinking under super® cially di� erent ways of talking. We have tried to focus on plausibly distinct uses of skill, process and procedure in our critiques. Our arguments will lay the groundwork for o� ering a new conception based on di� erent foundational assumptions in the following paper on this theme. Cr i ti c a l th i n ki n g a s s ki l l Many educators and theorists appear to view the task of teaching critical thinking as primarily a matter of developing thinking skills. Indeed, the discourse on thinking is su� used with skill talk. Courses and conferences focus on the development of thinking skills and references to skills appear in much of the literature.2 Even leading theorists in the area of critical thinking conceptualize critical thinking largely in terms of skill. Thus, for example, Siegel (1988: 39, 41) writes of the critical thinker as possessing à certain character as well as certain skills’ , and makes reference to `a wide variety of reasoning skills’ . Similarly, Paul (1984: 5) refers to critical thinking skills and describes them as `a set of integrated macro- logical
  • 77. skills’ . The Delphi Report on critical thinking (Facione 1990), which purports to be based on expert consensus in the ® eld, views critical thinking in terms of cognitive skills in interpretation, analysis, evaluation, inference, explanation and self-regulation. It is important to note that the term s̀kill’ can be used in a variety of senses and that, as a consequence, some of the discussion of skills in critical thinking is relatively unproblematic. In some instances s̀kill’ is used to indicate that an individual is pro® cient at the task in question. It is used, in this context, in an achievement sense. A skilled reasoner is one who is able to reason well and to meet the relevant criteria for good reasoning. The use of skill in this context focuses attention on students being capable of intelligent performance as opposed to merely having propositional knowl- edge about intelligent performance. Thus, someone who is thinking criti- cally can do more than cite a de® nition for ad hominem. He or she will notice inappropriate appeals to an arguer’ s character in particular argu- mentative contexts. Clearly, being a critical thinker involves, among other things, having a certain amount of `know-how’. Such thinkers are skilled, then, in the sense that they must be able to ful® ll relevant standards of good
  • 78. thinking. Conceptualizing critical thinking as involving skill in this achievement sense is relatively benign. However, some of the discussion of skills in the context of critical thinking is more problematic. There is a strong tendency among educators to divide educational goals or objectives into three distinct kinds: knowl- edge, skills (i.e. abilities), and attitudes (i.e. values), and to assign critical thinking to the category of skills.3 Conceiving of critical thinking as a skill in this sense implies more than simply that an individual is a competent or pro® cient thinker. It is based on a conception of skill as an identi® able operation which is generic and discrete. There are di� culties with both of these notions. We will begin with the problems entailed in viewing skills as 270 s. bailin ET A L . generic, i.e. once learned, they can be applied in any ® eld of endeavour; the problems involved in viewing skills as discrete will be dealt with later. Skills as generic The identi® cation of critical thinking with skill in the tripartite division of
  • 79. educational goals separates critical thinking from the development of knowledge, understanding and attitudes. Critical thinking is seen to involve generic operations that can be learned in themselves, apart from any particular knowledge domains, and then transferred to or applied in di� erent contexts. Thus, for example, Worsham and Stockton (1986: 11, 12) claim that t̀here are some skills that are basic and common to most curriculum tasks (for example, gathering information, ® nding the main idea, determining meaning)’ . They further state that: Most curriculum materials at the high school level require that students analyze, synthesize, and evaluate as well as to[sic] create new `products’, such as original oral and written pieces and artistic creations. Students are expected to apply the appropriate thinking skills to accomplish these tasks. In a similar vein, Beyer (1987: 163) makes reference to discrete thinking skills and claims that: To be pro® cient in a thinking skill or strategy means to be able to use that operation e� ectively and e� ciently on one’s own in a variety of appropriate contexts. The separation of knowledge and critical thinking is fraught