Final traffic presentation

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Final traffic presentation

  1. 1. TRAFFIC STUDY FOR KARACHI - HYDERABAD MOTORWAY (M9) ASHAR H. LODI, DIRECTOR EXPONENT ENGINEERS (PVT.) LIMITED, KARACHI JULY 19, 2012
  2. 2. M-9: A TRAFFIC PERSPECTIVE M-9 connects most populous urban centre of Pakistan to rest of the country, gathering traffic from 2 most active sea ports. M-9 is one of the most travelled roads in the entire NHA Network, with more than 24,000 vehicles travelling each day. Most of the road users travel entire length of the highway i.e. 134 km. A significant number of commuter traffic is available on the road thus making a significant ‘Loyal User Group’ of travellers. DHA City with more than 500,000 inhabitants is already been announced by DHA lies on M-9. The only motorway in Pakistan providing shortest way to the travellers between OD Pairs. Thus developing a very large group of captive road users. Has the largest potential to develop revenues from Non Toll Sources.
  3. 3. TRAFFIC STUDY SCOPE To review previous traffic studies & traffic parameters. To undertake primary data collection by conducting traffic surveys. To identify, review & establish basis of traffic growth in the entire network in terms of parameters such as socio-economic / land use development datasets, population, vehicle ownership growth within the study corridor; To validate socio-economic baseline data that are readily available from previous credible sources; Estimate number of lanes required at new interchanges locations; To review toll rates prevailing on M-9 and other roads of NHA and corroborate already agreed toll rates with NHA during concession period; To develop a 4 stage traffic demand model for the study corridor with acceptable level of calibration. To perform policy testing depicting various possible scenarios of operations using the demand model; Estimating expected traffic diversion under agreed toll rates;
  4. 4. STUDY METHODOLOGY Model Development Approach
  5. 5. STUDY METHODOLOGY Steps in Performing Study Review available Secondary Data Conduct Field visit to determine survey locations Determine types of surveys to be conducted Prepare survey schedule Prepare survey forms Conduct Field surveys Process raw data into spreadsheets Analysis of processed survey data Develop highway network in STRADA Use traffic volume counts for model calibration Utilize OD and Occupancy data for development of current OD matrix Perform Policy Testing for future Demand forecast Determine Future Transport Demand Basis for Projection in Financial Model
  6. 6. TRAFFIC SURVEYS & ANALYSIS Mid-Block Count Surveys Turning Movement Count Survey Origin Destination Surveys Willingness to Pay Surveys Occupancy Surveys Travel Time Surveys Road Condition Surveys
  7. 7. SURVEY LOCATIONS  SL –1 Karachi Northern Bypass Toll Plaza  SL –2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway  SL –3 Super Highway at Nooriabad  SL –4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway  SL –5 National Highway near Kotri  SL –6 National Highway near Thatta  SL –7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway  SL –8 Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road  SL –9 New Link Road between Super Highway – National Highway near Airport S L - 4 S L - 5 S L - 3 S L S - L 1 - S 2 L - S 9 L - 8 S S L L - - 6 7
  8. 8. SURVEY LOCATIONS & SPECIFICATIONS Survey Duration by Survey Types Site ID Location Description Passenger Willingness to TMC Mid-Block Roadside OD Occupancy Pay Karachi Northern Bypass Toll - SL – 1 168 hrs - - - Plaza Karachi Toll Plaza on Super - SL – 2 168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs Highway - SL – 3 Super Highway at Nooriabad 168 hrs - - - - Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on SL – 4 168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs Super Highway - SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri 72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs - SL – 6 National Highway near Thatta 72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs Sassi Toll Plaza on National - SL – 7 168 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs Highway - Toll Plaza on Super Highway – SL – 8 72 hrs 72 hrs 72 hrs 24 hrs National Highway Link Road New Link Road between Super SL – 9 Highway – National Highway 24 hrs 48 hrs - - - near Airport
  9. 9. VEHICLE CLASSIFICATIONS FOR SURVEYVehicles used in following Classes for the surveys Vehicle S. No. Description Description,If any Class 1. Class 1 Cars / Vans / Jeeps / Pajero / Suzuki Van / Pickups / Toyota Hilux single/double Cabin / Taxis 2. Class 2 Wagons / Pickups / Shahzor / Master 3. Class 3 Coasters / Mini Trucks / Mazda T-3000 / Mazda T-3500 4. Class 4 Intercity Buses 5. Class 5 Rigid Trucks 2 – 3 Axles 6. Class 6 Articulated Trucks 4 – 5 – 6 Axles
  10. 10. MID-BLOCK TRAFFIC COUNTS SURVEY Survey Form
  11. 11. AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC BY DIRECTION SITE ID DESCRIPTION DIRECTION ADT From Hub 1,903 SL-01 Karachi Northern Bypass (KNBP) From Super Highway 1,960 Both Directions 3,863 From Karachi 10,691 SL-02 Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza From Hyderabad 11,061 Both Directions 21,752 From Karachi 9,769 From Hyderabad 10,864 SL-03 Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Nooriabad Both Directions 20,633 From Karachi 8,809 From Hyderabad 9,122 SL-04 Karachi - Hyderabad Super Highway near Hyderabad Both Directions 17,931 From Kotri 1,717 SL-05 National Highway (N-5) near Kotri From Super Highway 3,402 Both Directions 5,119 From Gharo 4,551 SL-07 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway (N-5) From Karachi 4,918 Both Directions 9,469 From National Highway 2,337 SL-08 Link Road (N-5 - Super Highway) From Super Highway 2,927 Both Directions 5,264 From Malir 3,143 SL-09 New Link Road (MalirCantt) From Super Highway 4,868 Both Directions 8,011
  12. 12. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-01 (Karachi Northern Bypass) ADT- BOTH DIRECTIONS @ SL-01 KNBP 300 250 200 VPH 150 100 50 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day SL-01: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 800 700 600VPH (PCU) 500 400 300 200 100 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day
  13. 13. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-02 (Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza) SL-02: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions) 13% CLASS 1 16% CLASS 2 51% CLASS 3 CLASS 4 6% CLASS 5 11% CLASS 6 3%
  14. 14. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-02 (Super Highway near Karachi Toll Plaza) SL-02: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 VPH 600 400 200 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day SL-02: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 3,500 3,000 2,500VPH (PCU) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day
  15. 15. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-03 (Super Highway near Nooriabad) SL-03: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions) 18% CLASS 1 CLASS 2 47% CLASS 3 16% CLASS 4 CLASS 5 CLASS 6 7% 8% 4%
  16. 16. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-03 (Super Highway near Nooriabad) SL-03: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 VPH 600 400 200 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day SL-03: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 3,500 3,000 2,500VPH (PCU) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day
  17. 17. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-04 (Super Highway near Hyderabad Toll Plaza) SL-4: Daily Traffic %age by Vehicle Class (Both Directions) 15% CLASS 1 CLASS 2 19% CLASS 3 50% CLASS 4 CLASS 5 CLASS 6 8% 5% 3%
  18. 18. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-04 (Super Highway near Hyderabad Toll Plaza) SL-04: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 1,200 1,000 800 ADT 600 400 200 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day SL-04: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 3,000 2,500ADT (PCU) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 7-day
  19. 19. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-05 (National Highway near Kotri) SL-05: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 450 400 350 300 250 VPH 200 150 100 50 0 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 3-day SL-05: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 900 800 700VPH (PCU) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 3-day
  20. 20. SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS SL-07 (Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway) SL-07: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 700 600 500 400 VPH 300 200 100 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 5-day SL-07: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 1,200 1,000VPH (PCU) 800 600 400 200 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 Hourly Time Intervals Weekday Weekend 5-day
  21. 21. VPH (PCU) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 VPH 16:00 0 100 150 200 250 300 50 17:00 07:00 3-day 18:00 08:00 19:00 09:00 20:00Hourly Time Intervals 21:00 10:00 22:00 11:00 23:00 12:00 00:00 13:00 SL-08: ADT (PCU) BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 01:00 14:00 02:00 15:00 03:00 16:00 04:00 17:00 05:00 18:00 06:00 19:00 20:00 3-day SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS Hourly Time Intervals 21:00 22:00 23:00 SL-08: ADT BY HOUR (BOTH DIRECTIONS) 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 SL-08 (Link Road B/W Super Highway & National Highway
  22. 22. PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEY Survey Locations Passenger Site ID Location Description Occupancy SL – 2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs SL – 4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri 72 hrs SL – 6 National Highway near Thatta 72 hrs SL – 7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway 72 hrs SL – 8 Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road 72 hrs Survey Modes S. No. Mode of Travel 1 Private Cars 2 Intercity Buses 3 Wagons 4 Coasters 5 Minibuses
  23. 23. PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Private Cars)
  24. 24. PASSENGER OCCUPANCY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Public Transport)
  25. 25. AVERAGE OCCUPANCY BY CLASS OF TRAVEL The average occupancy for individual modes across locations and direction of travel are similar Direction of Mode of Travel Location Description Travel Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 From Karachi 3.42 11.05 30.00 36.39 SL-02 Karachi Toll Plaza Towards 3.28 8.98 26.09 32.56 Karachi From Karachi 3.16 9.37 11.20 31.32 Hyderabad Toll SL-04 Plaza Towards 3.16 10.46 27.43 36.51 Karachi From Kotri 3.05 8.96 21.86 35.57 National Highway SL-05 near Kotri From Super 2.36 9.07 10.00 29.35 Highway Sassi Toll Plaza From Karachi 3.05 10.11 25.02 43.09 SL-07 on National Highway From Gharo 2.69 11.70 23.55 44.04
  26. 26. TRAVEL TIME SURVEYS Travel time surveys were conducted for passenger car and freight traffic on Super Highway and on National Highway. Survey Results on M-9  Survey Results on N-5 (Cars) (Cars) Travel Time Travel Time Travel Speed Travel Speed Distance Distance S. No. FromS.No. From (km) From Khi From Hyd From Khi (km) From Khi From Hyd From Khi Hyd Hyd (mins) (mins) (km/h) (mins) (mins) (km/h) (km/h) (km/h) 1 0 To 25 26 23 58 65 1 0 To 25 20 20 75 75 2 25 To 50 28 19 54 79 2 25 To 50 19 19 79 79 3 50 To 75 18 19 83 79 3 50 To 75 19 19 79 79 75 To 4 100 21 23 71 65 75 To 100 To 4 100 18 19 83 79 5 125 19 20 79 75 100 To 125 To 5 125 18 19 83 79 6 150 29 26 52 58 125 To 150 To 6 135 6 7 100 86 7 175 25 35 60 43Total 135 100 103 83 79 Total 175 166 165 63 64
  27. 27. ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS OD Survey Locations Site ID Location Description OD SL – 2 Karachi Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs SL – 4 Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Super Highway 72 hrs SL – 5 National Highway near Kotri 72 hrs SL – 6* National Highway near Thatta 72 hrs SL – 7 Sassi Toll Plaza on National Highway 72 hrs SL – 8 Toll Plaza on Super Highway – National Highway Link Road 72 hrs *Surveys at SL-6 were called off due to the prevailing law & order situation in the area
  28. 28. ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS Trip Frequency by Trip Trip Frequency for Private Transport (M-9) Private Transport Trips / Week 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 27% 26% 26% 20% 21% 10% 0% 0% 1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips
  29. 29. ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS Trip Frequency by Trips Trip Frequency for Public Transport (M-9) Public Transport Trips / Month 100% 90% 94% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips
  30. 30. ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS Trip Frequency by Trips Trip Frequency for Light Freight & 2-3 Axle Trucks (M-9) Light Freight & 2,3 Axle Trips / Month 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 55% 40% 30% 20% 17% 17% 10% 8% 3% 0% 1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips
  31. 31. ORIGIN DESTINATION SURVEYS Trip Frequency by Trips Trip Frequency for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (M- 9) 4-5-6 Axles Trips / Month 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 38% 30% 20% 22% 20% 10% 16% 3% 0% 1 Trip 2 Trips 3 Trips 4 Trips > 5 Trips
  32. 32. WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS These surveys were performed to estimate potential traffic diversion on the Super Highway Willingness to Pay Survey Vehicle Categories Survey Site ID Location Description Vehicle Categories Duration Karachi Toll Plaza on Super SL–02 24 hrs Passenger Cars Public Highway Transport Light Freight Trucks (2 & 3 axle) Near Hyderabad Toll Plaza on Trailers (4, 5 & 6 axle) SL–04 24 hrs Super Highway
  33. 33. WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Public Transport)
  34. 34. WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Private Transport)
  35. 35. WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Light Freight Transport)
  36. 36. WILLINGNESS TO PAY SURVEYS Survey Form ( Freight Transport)
  37. 37. ANALYSIS SURVEY RESULTS POTENTIAL  Percent Diversion Curve (Super Highway vs M-9) DIVERSIONS Diversion Curve (N-5 vs M-9) Percent  Potential Diversion Potential Diversion 120 120 100 100 80 Diversion (%) 80 Diversion (%) 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 0 Toll (Rs / km) 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 y = 321.1x3 - 579.5x2 + 242.1x + 71.58 Toll (Rs.) R² = 0.997 y = 76.99x3 - 240.4x2 + 139.2x + 78.40 R² = 0.953
  38. 38. DEMAND FORECAST MODELING The development of a transport model is a key task in Demand Forecast Analysis. Demand Forecast Modelling provides an analytical tool to estimate traffic being diverted in various years from multiple OD pairs in the influence area. This also helps in ascertaining parameters like: Locations of potential interchanges Lane requirements for various sections Modal share by road sections Operating parameters (Operating speed, V/C Ratio etc) Traffic being attracted under various toll scenarios & operating conditions etc.
  39. 39. IMAGE OF FOUR STEP MODELLING Public Transport Motorcycle Private car Production (Pi) Distribution Attraction (Aj) G 4. Traffic 2. Trip 1. Trip 3. Modal AssignmenDistribution Choice t Generation
  40. 40. DEMAND FORECAST MODELLING METHODOLOGY Socio-economic Future Framework Model Current Future OD Matrix OD Matrix Master Plan Existing network
  41. 41. OD MATRIX j Number of trips traveling from zone i to zone j i Tij i j Image of OD matrix and Network
  42. 42. STRUCTURE OF OD MATRIX j P i i T ij A j i T ij Production (Pi) G i j T ij Tii i Tij i P i j A j T ij i<>j Inter-zonal trip Attraction (Aj) G i=j Intra-zonal trip 42
  43. 43. COMPONENTS OF CURRENT OD MATRIX Establishing of Current OD matrix Occupancy Data Volume Occupancy data was processed Data mode wise to ascertain average occupancies. Volume Occupancy Intervie w Data Data Data Passengers travelling are calculated by incorporating average occupancies with volume. Pax Interview Data Using interview data and Total persons travelling expansion Pax factors were developed. OD MATRIX These expansion factors are further applied to interview data to Expansion expand the data set to realistic Factor level and to form an expanded OD matrix. Expanded OD

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