M9 final report 07.07.12


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M9 final report 07.07.12

  2. 2. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS S. No. Description List of Tables List of Figures 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 Consultant’s Appointment 1.3 Scope of Work 2. Study Methodology 2.1 Project Description 2.1.1 History 2.1.2 Site Location 2.1.3 Key Features of the Highway 2.2 Study Methodology 3. Field Surveys 3.1 General 3.2 Selection of Survey Locations 3.3 Selection of Survey Types 3.3.1 Mid-Block Count Surveys 3.3.2 Turning Movement Count Survey 3.3.3 Origin Destination Surveys 3.3.4 Willingness to Pay Surveys 3.3.5 Occupancy Surveys 3.3.6 Travel Time Surveys 3.3.7 Road Condition Surveys 3.4 Vehicle Classifications for Survey 3.5 Survey Forms and Schedule 3.6 Survey Performance 3.6.1 Sampling 3.6.2 Survey Method 3.7 Data Quality Assurance 3.7.1 Pre-Survey Training Sessions 3.7.2 In-Field Quality Checks 3.7.3 Quality Checks During Data Entry 3.7.4 Logical and Consistency Checks 3.7.5 Data Processing 3.8 Mid-Block Count Surveys 3.8.1 Introduction 3.8.2 Summary of Traffic Counts 3.8.3 Annual Average Daily Traffic 3.8.4 Passenger Car Units (PCUs) 3.8.5 Characteristics by Survey Location 3.8.6 Peak Hour Page i
  3. 3. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS S. No. Description 3.9 Passenger Occupancy Surveys 3.9.1 Introduction 3.9.2 Analysis of Passenger Occupancy Survey 3.10 Travel Time Surveys 3.11 Willingness to Pay surveys 3.11.1 Introduction 3.11.2 Survey Performance 3.11.3 Data Processing 3.11.4 Analysis of Survey Results 3.12 Origin Destination Surveys 3.12.1 Introduction 3.12.2 Frequency by Trip Purpose 3.12.3 Trip Frequency by Time 3.12.4 Frequency by Commodity Type 3.13 Turning Movement Count Survey 3.13.1 Introduction 3.13.2 Analysis of Turning Movement Count 4. Demand Forecast & Modeling 4.1 Overview 4.2 Modelling Objectives 4.3 Modelling Approach 4.4 Development of Current OD Matrix (Year 2012) 4.4.1 Components, Structure and Development 4.4.2 Components of OD Matrix Occupancy Data Classified Traffic Volume Counts Interview Data 4.4.3 Methodologyfor Developing Current OD Matrix 4.5 Traffic Analysis Zones 4.6 Network Development 4.7 Network Structure and Attributes 4.8 Capacity and Speed Relationship (QV) 4.9 Base Year (2012) Network 4.10 Network Calibration 4.11 Base Case Assignment 4.12 Traffic Growth Estimation 4.12.1 Setting Estimation Milestones 4.12.2 Developing OD Matrices for Future 5. Traffic Projections 5.1 Future Network Development: 5.2 Person Trip Estimations: Page ii
  4. 4. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS S. No. Description 5.3 Future Assignments: 5.4 Future Projections: 5.4.1 Karachi – Kathore Section: 5.4.2 Kathore – Nooriabad Section: 5.4.3 Nooriabad - Hyderabad Section: 5.5 Overall Growth Rate Comparison 6. Capacity Analysis 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Limitations of Analysis 6.3 Existing Conditions Analysis 6.4 Future Conditions Analysis 6.4.1 Determination of Free Flow Speed (FFS) 6.4.2 Traffic Projections 6.4.3 Peak Hour Traffic 6.4.4 Volume to Capacity and LOS 7. Financial Projections 7.1 Assumptions 7.1.1 General Assumptions 7.2 Detailed Analysis 7.2.1 Toll & Non Toll Revenues Revenues Toll Revenues Non Toll Revenue 8. Conclusions & Recommendations 8.1 Conclusions: 8.2 Recommendations: Annexure Annexure I: Survey Forms Annexure II: Traffic Volume Count Annexure III: Traffic Occupancy Count Annexure IV: Passengers Travelling by Mode Annexure V: Financial Projections` Page iii
  5. 5. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES S. No. Description Table 3.1 Survey Locations & Specifications Table 3.2 Vehicle Classification for Surveys Table 3.3 Survey Schedule Table 3.4 Daily Traffic Volume by Direction Table 3.5 Average Daily Traffic by Direction Table 3.6 PCU Factors Table 3.7 Peak Hour Traffic (PCUs) Table 3.8 Passenger Occupancy Survey Locations Table 3.9 Passenger Occupancy Survey Modes Table 3.10 Average Occupancy by Class of Travel Table 3.11 Travel Time Survey Results on Super Highway (Cars) Table 3.12 Travel Time Survey Results on N-5 (Cars) Table 3.13 Travel Time Survey on Super Highway (Freight) Table 3.14 Willingness to Pay Survey Vehicle Categories Table 3.15 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Cars (Super Highway vs M-9) Table 3.16 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Cars (N-5 vs M-9) Table 3.17 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Trucks (Super Highway vs M-9) Table 3.18 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Trucks (N-5 vs M-9) Table 3.19 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Public Transport (Super Highway vs M-9) Table 3.20 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Public Transport (N-5 vs M-9) Table 3.23 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Trailers (Super Highway vs M-9) Table 3.24 Toll vs Diversion Curve for Trailers (N-5 vs M-9) Table 3.25 OD Survey Locations Table 4.1 Passenger’s travelling by different mode Table 4.1a Base Year Person Trips by Vehicle Class Table 4.1b List of TAZ IDs and Names Table 4.1c Network Attributes for Highway Network Table 4.2 QV Function for Road Types Table 4.3 Actual Vs Modelled Daily Traffic Flows Table 4.4 Milestone Years for M-9 Table 4.5 List of Projects & their Expected Impacts on M-9 in Milestones Years Table 4.6 Growth Rates for TAZ Class 1 Table 4.7 Trip Generation Contribution in Base OD Matrix Table 4.8 Adopted Growth Trip Rates by Mode by Milestone Year Table 5.1 List of Interchanges along M-9 Table 5.2 Temporal Distribution of Person Trips in Future Years Table 5.3 Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume between Karachi &Kathore Table 5.4 Temporal Variation of Traffic Growth between Karachi &Kathore Table 5.5 Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume between Kathore – Nooriabad Section Table 5.6 Temporal Variation of Traffic Growth between Kathore – Nooriabad Section Table 5.7 Temporal Variation of Traffic Volume between Nooriabad – Hyderabad Page iv
  6. 6. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES S. No. Description Section Table 5.8 Temporal Variation of Traffic Growth between Kathore – Nooriabad Section Table 5.9 Growth Rate Comparison Table 6.1 Level of Service Criteria Description as per HCM Table 6.2 Freeway Level of Service Criteria as per HCM Table 6.3 HCM Criteria for Lane Width Adjustment Table 6.4 HCM Criteria for Left Shoulder Clearance Adjustment Table 6.5 HCM Criteria for Number of Lanes Adjustment Table 6.6 HCM Criteria for Interchange Density Adjustment Table 6.7 Traffic Projections for Karachi-Kathore Section Table 6.8 Traffic Projections for Karachi-Kathore Section in PCU Table 7.1 Vehicle Classes Table 7.2 Tolls Rates after M-9 Improvement Table 7.3 Annualized Growth Rates Table 7.4 Toll Rate Variation Over Concession Period Table 7.5 Gross Toll Revenues Table 8.1 Total Network Travel Demand Page v
  7. 7. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURESS. No. DescriptionFigure 2.1 NHA Highways and Motorways MapFigure 2.2 Steps in Performing StudyFigure 2.3 Model Development ApproachFigure 3.1 Field Survey LocationsFigure 3.2 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-01Figure 3.3 Hourly Traffic Variation at SL-01Figure 3.4 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-01Figure 3.5 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-02Figure 3.6 Hourly Variation at SL-02Figure 3.7 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-02Figure 3.8 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-03Figure 3.9 Hourly Variation at SL-03Figure 3.10 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-03Figure 3.11 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-4Figure 3.12 Hourly Variation at SL-04Figure 3.13 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-04Figure 3.14 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-05Figure 3.15 Hourly Variation at SL-05Figure 3.16 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-05Figure 3.17 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-07Figure 3.18 Hourly Variation at SL-07Figure 3.19 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-07Figure 3.20 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-08Figure 3.21 Hourly Variation at SL-08Figure 3.22 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-08Figure 3.23 Traffic Mix by Mode at SL-09Figure 3.24 Hourly Variation at SL-09Figure 3.25 Hourly Traffic Variation (PCU) at SL-09Figure 3.26 Process for Developing Diversion CurvesFigure 3.27 Percent Diversion Curve for Cars (Super Highway vs M-9)Figure 3.28 Percent Diversion Curve for Cars (N-5 vs M-9)Figure 3.29 Percent Diversion Curve for Trucks (Super Highway vs M-9)Figure 3.30 Percent Diversion Curve for Trucks (N-5 vs M-9)Figure 3.31 Percent Diversion Curve for Public Transport (Super Highway vs M-9)Figure 3.32 Percent Diversion Curve for Public Transport (N-5 vs M-9)Figure 3.33 Percent Diversion Curve for Trailers(Super Highway vs M-9)Figure 3.34 Percent Diversion Curve for Trailers (N-5 vs M-9)Figure 3.35 Trip Purpose Frequency for Private Transport (Super Highway)Figure 3.36 Trip Purpose Frequency for Private Transport (N-5)Figure 3.37 Trip Frequency for Private Transport (M-9)Figure 3.38 Trip Frequency for Private Transport (N-5) Page vi
  8. 8. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT [[ Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURESS. No. DescriptionFigure 3.39 Trip Frequency for Public Transport (M-9)Figure 3.40 Trip Frequency for Public Transport (N-5)Figure 3.41 Trip Frequency for Light Freight & 2-3 Axle Trucks (M-9)Figure 3.42 Trip Frequency for 2-3 Axle Trucks (N-5)Figure 3.43 Trip Frequency for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (M-9)Figure 3.44 Trip Frequency for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (N-5)Figure 3.45 Commodity Type for Light Freight & 2-3 Axle (M-9)Figure 3.46 Commodity Type for Light Freight & 2-3 Axle (N-5)Figure 3.47 Commodity Type for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (M-9)Figure 3.48 Commodity Type for 4-5-6 Axle Trailers (N-5)Figure 3.49 Turning Movement at SL-09Figure 4.1 Modelling ApproachFigure 4.2 Components of OD MatrixFigure 4.3 Flow chart of OD matrix estimationFigure 4.4 TAZ MapFigure 4.5 Steps for Network DevelopmentFigure 4.6 Highway & Transit NetworksFigure 4.7 Observed VS Assigned TrafficFigure 4.8 Highway Network for Base Year (2012)Figure 4.9 Traffic Distribution from TAZ 4 (Karachi)Figure 4.10 Traffic Distribution from TAZ 16 (Hyderabad)Figure 4.11 Traffic Distribution from TAZ 5 & 9 (Steel Town & PQA)Figure 4.12 Traffic Distribution from TAZ 7 (Lucky Cement)Figure 5.1 Future NetworkFigure 5.2 Year wise Person Trips GraphFigure 5.3 Traffic Assignment for the year 2015Figure 5.4 Traffic Assignment for the year 2020Figure 5.5 Traffic Assignment for the year 2030Figure 5.6 Traffic Assignment for the year 2040Figure 5.7 Temporal Variation between Karachi & KathoreFigure 5.8 Temporal Variation between Kathore & Nooriabad SectionFigure 5.9 Temporal Variation between Nooriabad & Hyderabad Section SectionFigure 7.1 Toll Vs Non Toll Revenue SharingFigure 7.2 Temporal Variation of Toll Revenue by Vehicle Class Page vii
  9. 9. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Introduction Chapter 1 – Introduction 1.1 Background: Karachi is the largest and the fastest growing megacity of Pakistan. It is the hub of economic and commercial activities in Pakistan. The population has been growing nearly 4% per annum and was estimated to have reached 18 million in 2010. As a consequence, Karachi City is suffering from worsening traffic congestion and environmental degradation in the CBD and on most of the radial corridors because of rapid motorization due to the increase of population and subsequent economic growth. An effective transport and communications system is a necessary condition for rapid economic growth. It serves to link all the other sectors of the economy together, and has a profound effect on the achievements in almost every sphere of national life. In the context of national development, transport and communication facilities play a fundamental role in expanding the domestic markets and making possible increased level of economic and social activities. Inadequate transport and transport infrastructure are frequently a major cause of non-realization of targets in the agricultural, industrial and other sectors. Karachi is bounded by three major highways that connect the city to the rest of the country, i.e. Super Highway, National Highway and RCD Highway. Super Highway (M-9) is a 145 km four-lane highway that starts at the Karachi Toll Plaza near the interchange with Karachi Northern Bypass (M-10) and ends at the Kotri interchange near Hyderabad. The National Highway (N-5) extends from Shara-e-Faisal near Quaidabad and moves eastward through the towns of Gharo and Thatta before turning northwards to Hyderabad and onwards to Torkham via Multan, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar. RCD Highway connects Karachi to the province of Baluchistan via Hub and ends at Quetta. Two of the three major ports of Pakistan; the Karachi Port and the Port Muhammad Bin Qasim are located in Karachi. The Karachi Port handles about 60% while Port Qasim handles about 30% of the nation’s cargo. Port traffic from Karachi to other parts of the province and to the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pukhtun khaw use the Super Highway (M-9) or National Page 1-1
  10. 10. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Introduction Highway (N-5). Most of the existing freight traffic uses the Super Highway for onward journey from the ports due to better road condition and shorter travel distance to Hyderabad and beyond. Furthermore, Karachi attracts a large number of commuters from other parts of the Sindh province, especially from Hyderabad, Thatta and surrounding regions. Many people drive to and from Karachi daily, while many others return back to their home cities over the weekend. These motorists primarily use the Super Highway to travel between Karachi and Hyderabad. Commuters from Thatta generally use the National Highway (N-5) to travel to Karachi and vice versa. The Super Highway serves as a critical transportation link between Karachi and the rest of Pakistan. The existing Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway is a 4-lane facility with an open toll system with access to local traffic present throughout the length of the highway. The existing road surface condition is far from satisfactory. Due to the rapid urbanization in Karachi and increase in private and freight traffic, the need for up-gradation of Super Highway is necessary to meet future travel demand requirements and to induce economic activity.1.2 Consultant’s Appointment: The National Highway Authority (NHA) has planned to upgrade Super Highway into a 6-lane access controlled motorway (M-9) on a BOT basis to cater for the future travel demand. BinaPuri Holdings (BHD) was awarded the contract by NHA for the conversion of Super Highway into a 6-lane motorway. BinaPuri appointed Exponent Engineers (EE) on March 31, 2012 to conduct an independent traffic study for the proposed project.1.3 Scope of Work: Exponent Engineers’ Scope of Work is defined as:  To review previous traffic studies as well as other relevant documentation including the proposed route alignment and toll plaza locations.  To undertake primary data collection by conducting midblock traffic counts, turning movement counts, origin-destination surveys, Page 1-2
  11. 11. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Introduction willingness to pay surveys, travel time surveys and road condition surveys. The surveys include the following: - o Traffic count surveys at road midblocks to identify traffic volumes. This data will be used in the model calibration process. o Turning movement counts to estimate lane requirements for geometric design of interchanges, where necessary. o Passenger Occupancy Surveys to be carried out for support in OD Matrix Development. o Roadside interview surveys to be carried out at several locations for development of OD Matrix. o Travel speed surveys, to determine the level of service on arterial roads. These surveys to be conducted 3 (three) times a day for two directions on weekdays on M-9 (existing) and National Highway (N5) between Karachi & Hyderabad. o Road condition surveys to determine the current length, width of the arterial road and other parameters for estimation of road capacities within the study area corridor.  To undertake other relevant surveys and compile the analyses and results.  To undertake site visits and discuss with the relevant authorities to identify and review local planning information, socio-economic / land use plan development data, population and vehicle ownership growth within the study corridor.  To validate socio-economic baseline data that is readily available from previous studies.  Estimate number of lanes required at new interchanges locations.  To review toll rates prevailing on M-9 and other roads of NHA and corroborate already agreed toll rates with NHA during concession period.  To develop a 4 stage traffic demand model for the study corridor using JICA STRADA with acceptable level of calibration.  To perform policy testing depicting various possible scenarios of operations using the demand model. Page 1-3
  12. 12. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Introduction  Estimating expected traffic diversion under agreed toll rates.  Preparing cash inflows for various scenarios. Page 1-4
  13. 13. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology Chapter 2 - Study Methodology 2.1 Project Description: 2.1.1 History: The Karachi-Hyderabad section of N-5 (popularly known as super highway) connects the port city of Karachi with the North of Pakistan. This section of the highway is amongst the most densely trafficked in the entire country, with the existing highway serving heavy traffic volume with large portion of truck traffic. The route is also the shortest possible distance between the two cities i.e Karachi and Hyderabad and feeds into the main North – South Links i.e N-55 (Indus Highway) and the National Highway N-5 (Grand Trunk Road). The Karachi-Hyderabad section was constructed as part of the First Highway Project with the assistance of World Bank during 1964 – 68 and dualiyzed in 1991 as part of the Fourth IBRD Highway Project. Toll is presently being collected from Highway users by the NHA. The NHA has awarded the construction contract of existing 4-lane Karachi–Hyderabad Superhighway as 6-lane, access controlled, world class Motorway (M-9) along with its allied facilities to BinaPuri Holdings (BHD) on a BOT basis. 2.1.2 Site Location: The Project starts off at Km 13+000 (Project Chainage 0+000) of the NHA reference under the flyover interchange provided for the Lyari Expressway on the Lyari River and ends at Km 149+000 (Project Chainage 136+000) in the proximity of the existing clover leaf interchange on the Hyderabad Bypass. The first 15 Km at the Western end of the Highway is being rapidly urbanized. The next 20 Km are semi urban. Then the population thins out into isolated portions along the rest of the Highway until the end point near Hyderabad Bypass. The alignment is scattered with factories, especially the Nooriabad Industrial Zone towards the middle of the alignment and a number of fuel pumps and minor truck restaurants. Habitation is sparse along the length and natural vegetation is confined to thorns, shrubs and cactuses. The drainage divide of the highway is almost Page 2-1
  14. 14. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology at the midpoint of the route. The Malir River and its tributaries flowing in the south-west and the tributaries of River Indus in the southeast drain off the rest of the route. The rivers and streams remain dry generally but get flooded during heavy rains in the respective vast catchments. The ground elevation varies from 28 meters to 260 meters above mean sea level. Figure 2.1 shows the location of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway with respect to the NHA Highways and Motorways network. 2.1.3 Key Features of the Highway: The key engineering features of the Project, for construction of an excellent motorway, include, but not limited to the following (Project Chainages are referred hereunder):  Rehabilitation of the existing 134.35 Km (Length reduced by 1.65 Km at Hyderabad end, terminating before Hyderabad Interchange) of 4-lane carriageway, both north-bound and south-bound and construction of an additional new lane on the inner side of the Highway with 3.0 m outer shoulder and 1.0 m inner shoulder. Lane width is to be taken as 3.65 m. Both rehabilitation and widening would reflect a coherent motorway carriageway and the north and southbound carriageways will be divided by a New Jersey Barrier.  Extensions are to be made to all the existing bridge structures and culverts. Four (4) bridges have an additional extension on either side accommodating service roads to allow local traffic to negotiate land locked areas between canals.  The required drainage and cross drainage structures are to be provided throughout the Project length.  Seven (7) New Interchanges are to be provided to support populations, towns, industrial zones and other isolated pockets enabling them to commute on the motorway after fencing of the Right of Way (“ROW”). Although at some locations, volume of traffic does not justify an interchange, the isolation of roadside developments and population’s warrants connectivity as there is no other route available for transport. Interchanges within the closed system to have entry and exit 2-lane Toll Plazas. The locations for the new interchanges are as follows: Page 2-2
  15. 15. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology Figure 2.1: NHA Highways and Motorways Map National Highways and Sus t Khunjrab Pass CHINA Mis gar Motorways of Pakistan Chitral Karimabad N-35 Jaglot Gilgit Kalam Saz in Rondu Dros h S-1 N-45 N-95 Das u Chilas Skardu Dir Khw azakhela Jalkhad N-90 Tamergara Balakot N-95 Chakdara Naran Bararkot Bat Khela S-4 Malak and Muzaffarabad Sher Ghargh Mansehra Hatian Mardan Abbottabad S-2 Torkham Charsadda M-1 Kohala Chakothi N-5 Natio n al Highway Srinagar Parachinar Nowshera Haripur N-35 N-75 JAMMU & KASHMIR PESHAWAR Natio n al Highway (Sh ingle) AFGHANISTAN Dara Ademk hel Murree (DISPUTED N-80 ISLAMABAD Rawalpindi Ro ad Pro posed fo r Fed eralization Lac hi Kohat TERRITORY) Gujar Khan N-55 Sohawa Motorway (Operational) Latambar M-2 J helum Bannu Kharian Mo to rway (Under construction) Indus River Sarai Gambila Gujrat Mo to rway (Planned) N-55 National Capital Pez u Gujranwala Pindi Pro vincial Cap ital DI Khan Bhattian Komok e Daraz inda Shahdara M-3 City/Town Mughal Kot Malana Sahianwala Millat LAHORE Sr. Rout Length Zhob Route Detail In terch ange Faisalabad No. e No. (Km) Nutk ani Pro vincial Bo undary Chaman Mus lim Mina Baz ar Bahi Pheru MOTORWAYS – 767 Kms. Qila Bagh Qila N-50 Retra Pattok i Abdullah Saifullah M-4 Renala Khurd 1 M-1 Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway 155 International Boundary Khanewal Tauns a N-25 Ok ara Lahore-Islamabad Motorway incl. 32 Km Link Sahiwal 2 M-2 367 River roads Kuchlak Shadan Lund Chic hawatni Loralai Mek htar Multan Mianc hannu 3 M-3 Pindi Bhattian-Faisalabad-Motorway 53 QUETTA Muz affargarh 4 M-9 Karachi-Hyderabad Motorway (Super Highway) 136 Rak hni Lakpass Spez and DG Khan Lar N-5A 5 M-10 Karachi Northern Bypass 56 Mac h M-5 Bahawal Khan Nos hk i Mas tung Sibi Lodhran NATIONAL HIGHWAYS – 8710 Kms. Ahmed Wal J ampur Bahawalpur 1 N-5 Karachi-Lahore-Peshawar-Torkham 1819 Dadhar N-65 Taftan N-55 Nurpur Nauranga Makran-Coastal; Liari-Ormara-Gwadar-Jiwani- Padog 2 N-10 653 Dalbandin Kalat Bellpat Rajanpur Ahmedpur Eas t Gabd Nok Kundi T. M. Panah Yak Muc h M-6 3 N-15 Mansehra-Naran-Jalkhad 240 Khan Bela N uthal Zahirpir 4 N-25 Karachi-Kalat-Quetta-Chaman 813 DM J amali Surab Kas hmor Sardar Garh 5 N-30 Basima - Khuzdar 110 Rahimy ar Khan 6 N-35 Hassanabdal-Thakot-Khunjrab 806 Basima J ac c obabad Kandhk ot Sadiqabad INDIA Ubauro 7 N-40 Lakpass-Dalbandin-Taftan 610 Dhark i Nag N-30 Khuzdar Shik arpur Ghotk i 8 N-45 Nowsehra-Dir-Chitral 309 N-85 Pano Aqil Panjgur IRAN Lark ana R ohri 9 N-50 Kuchlack-Zhob-D.I.Khan 531 Wad Baberlo 10 N-55 Kotri-Larkana-D.G.Khan-D.I.Khan-Peshawar 1264 M-8 Mehar N-5 Ranipur 11 N-65 Sukkur-Sibi-Quetta 385 Kakkar Kotri Kabir Naus hero Feroz 12 N-70 Multan-D.G.Khan-Loralai-Qali Saifullah 447 Moro Hoshab N-25 Dadu 13 N-75 Islamabad-Satra Mile-Lower Topa-Kohala 90 Turbat Daulatpur Kaz i Ahmed 14 N-80 Tarnol-Fateh Jang-Jand-Khushal Garh-Kohat 146 Bela Sehwan Sak rand 15 N-85 Hoshab-Panjgur-Nag-Basima-Surab 487 Saeedabad Hala STRATEGIC ROADS – 207 Kms. M-7 Uthal 1 S-1 KKH-Skardu Road (Strategic Road) 167 Gwadar Pas ni Liari Petaro 2 S-2 Kohala-Muzaffarabad 40 Ormara Gabd Hyderabad Total length of Motorways/National Highways/Strategic 9684 Jiwani Nak k a Karri M-10 Kotri M-9 Roads Hub Chowk i N-5 ROADS PROPOSED FOR FEDERALIZATION – 374 Kms. 1 N-5A Lodhran - Khanewal 102 KARACHI Thatta 2 Chakdara - Kalam 135 3 Khwazakhela - Besham 65 ARABIAN SEA 4 S-4 Muzaffarabad – Bararkot 17 5 Muzaffarabad - Chakothi 55 GRAND TOTAL 10058 DB O (R AM S) Page 2-3
  16. 16. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology Name of Interchange Chainage (Km) 1. Malir Road - CH 14+985 2. Damba Goth - CH 23+112 3. Lucky Cement - CH 45+596 4. Nooriabad - CH 55+760 5. Tooriabad - CH 66+936 6. Thano Bullah Khan - CH 80+952 7. Borari Sand - CH 113+440  Two kinds of service road formations are to be incorporated with minimum provisions as follows: o Urban (Shoulder – 1.5m (DST), Carriageway – 7.0m (Asphalt), Shoulder – 1.5m (DST)) o CH 0+000 to CH 15+000 Both Sides of Motorway o Semi-Urban, rural (Shoulder – 1.0m (Earthen), Carriageway -6.1m(TST), Shoulder – 1.0m (Earthen))  CH 15+000 to CH 19+800 Both Sides of Motorway  CH 22+000 to CH 34+000 Both Sides of Motorway  CH 36+875 to CH 46+875 Both Sides of Motorway  CH 51+600 to CH 58+600 Both Sides of Motorway  CH 61+350 to CH 83+600 Both Sides of Motorway  Minimum two main Service Areas of M-2 (Lahore-Islamabad Motorway) Service Area standard, with minimum following facilities, are to be established as part of the Project: o Restaurants and Food Courts o Toilets o CNG/LPG Filling Stations with Tuck Shop o Diesel/Petrol Filling Stations with Tuck Shop o Tyre Shop and Mini Workshop o Trauma Centre o Mosque o Parking Area o Truckers Workshop o AamSarai and Dhaba (with Trucks/Buses Parking) o Customer service centers where motorists can inquire about products, services, road information, weather etc. o Internal Roads, Sewerage, Water Supply and Electrification Page 2-4
  17. 17. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology  The CH 60+790 (North Bound & South Bound) is a proposed location for Service Areas,  Two New 16-lane Toll Plazas with ETTM and other state-of-the-art facilities are to be provided on the main carriageway at entry point on the Karachi End and the Hyderabad End on the following Project Chainages, respectively. These new Toll Plazas shall replace the existing Toll Plazas: o CH 16+000 o CH 131+900 o Seven (7) weigh stations are to be provided strategically to cover movement of heavy traffic and minimize overloading at least on the following locations:  CH 15+500 (North Bound)  CH 30+750 (South Bound)  CH 40+850 (South Bound)  CH 40+850 (North Bound)  CH 71+850 (South Bound)  CH 71+850 (North Bound)  CH 132+900 (South Bound)  Provision of chain link fence with pre-stressed poles and necessary arrangements on both sides of defined ROW  Landscaping and tree plantation  Provision of a minimum of two maintenance and operation compounds  Undertake Ancillary Development relevant to the Project. Such development encompasses approach roads, pedestrian/ cattle crossings, lighting, administrative and operation buildings/centers, controlling systems, vehicle recovery and environment-friendly development of areas located in the project jurisdiction and where the Motorway links with the city or other connecting points.  Ensure provision of following motorway facilities and will maintain them in a good working condition throughout the Concession Period: o Electronic Toll collection (ETC) for quick convenient and cashless transactions o Emergency Call Service for motorists requesting assistance in Page 2-5
  18. 18. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology case of accidents and other emergencies o Road structure safety features:  Reflectorized lane markings  Emergency parking areas  Rumble strips  Motorway signage plan  Installation of urban road lighting and reflectorized lane marking along the strategic locations as well as interchanges and toll plazas o Centralized Operation Centre: The smooth traffic flow is to be ensured through electronic traffic management system, complementing its operation with CCTV (close circuit TV) system for closer monitoring of traffic situations inside a centralized operation, maintenance and control center. o Traffic counting station / weight-in-Motion (WIM) systems. o Variable message signs (VMS) that provide motorists with useful updates on the traffic situation and other helpful information along the highway. o Emergency assistance system with:  First aid emergency trucks & Mobile Workshops  Traffic patrol surveillance system equipped with cameras, radios and speed monitoring devices 2.2 Study Methodology: The accuracy of measuring traffic growth is linked to the ability of highway planners to adequately monitor the patterns and trends of highway usage by various types of vehicles. This is directly related to the selection of data collection sites, the reliability of data collection technique, and the ability to extrapolate from short-term data collection periods to represent annual average data. These and other factors can significantly affect the estimated growth patterns and universal procedures are not in place to represent the variations, which can be on the geographical area, type of facility, socio-economic factors, and various demand generators. This section documents the framework and update process of the STRADA travel demand model used in the analysis. This model was developed by Page 2-6
  19. 19. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology recalibrating the existing City of Karachi model with attention given to more detailed refinement within the study area. The steps performed in conducting the study are given in Figure 2.2. Figure 2.2: Steps in Performing Study Review available Secondary Data Conduct Field visit to determine survey locations Determine types of surveys to be conducted Prepare survey schedule Prepare survey forms Conduct Field surveys Process raw data into spreadsheets Analysis of processed survey data Develop highway network in STRADA Use traffic volume counts for model calibration Utilize OD and Occupancy data for development of current OD matrix Perform Policy Testing for future Demand forecast Determine Future Transport Demand Develop Financial Model for the Project In the earlier stage of the Study, the focus was placed on the conduct of transport surveys, which include traffic count surveys, travel time surveys, willingness to pay surveys, occupancy surveys and a road condition survey. Second, a current OD matrix representing the existing conditions surveyed was developed based on the Person Trip database developed for the Karachi Transport Improvement Plan (KTIP), 2030, and a network database was created with the result of the road inventory survey. The current OD matrix, the existing network database, and socio-economic framework are essential input to build the models for forecasting, and the future network database developed based on the existing network database provided the forecast of the future transport demand by using the models developed. Page 2-7
  20. 20. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology Results of the traffic count surveys were used to calibrate the model. In addition, the results of the traffic count surveys utilized in estimating the Average Daily Traffic (ADT) as well as the existing condition analysis of the highway. The occupancy surveys were conducted to develop the Origin-Destination (OD) matrix. Willingness to Pay (WTP) surveys were performed to gather information about the potential diversion from / to the M-9 from other areas, notably the National Highway (N-5). The WTP can reflect drivers expectations of what the tolled facility offers, such as improved safety and reliability and fine savings. Travel time surveys were designed to determine the Level of Service (LOS) on arterial roads, while the Road Condition Survey was performed to determine the current length, width of the arterial road and other parameters for estimation of road capacities within the study area corridor. Figure 2.3 shows the approach employed in the development of the travel demand model. Figure 2.3: Model Development Approach Household Conducting Person Trip Study Transport by JICA Surveys Interview Surveys (HIS) data) Establish- ment of Person Trip Network Survey Results Database Database Development of Current OD KSDP-2020 Existing Network Matrix Database Current OD Matrix Development Socio-economic of Models and Landuse Data Future Transport Demand Future Network Forecast Database Future Transport Demand Page 2-8
  21. 21. Traffic and Financial Analysis of Karachi – Hyderabad Superhighway (M-9)FINAL REPORT Study Methodology Once the model was developed, Policy Testing was performed to get the future year traffic forecast based on the results of the surveys. Policy Testing is considered to be an important tool in Transportation Engineering as it enables the engineers and planners to determine the possible outcomes of various scenarios. Generally in Policy Testing, alternate options are developed so as to analyse the pros and cons each of the test may have, and by doing this iteratively the best possible solutions could be proposed. This is a general practice carried out in almost all parts of the world. The results of the policy testing were then utilized to predict the forecasted traffic growth rate for the years 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2042. The projected traffic was used in the capacity estimation and financial modelling. Page 2-9