Ws102 preventing the disaster of mass evac thurs 0830

Preventing the
Disaster of Mass
Evacuations
May 18, 2017
2017 Governor’s Hurricane Conference

Participate In Our Presentation
2
 Using your smart phones text
“Hagertyevac” to 22333
 When we get to the discussion
slides, use your phone to text
your response.
Southwest Florida Regional Evacuation Planning

Introductions
4
Lee Mayfield
 Planning Chief
 Lee County Emergency Management
Sandra Tapfumaneyi
 Operations Chief
 Lee County Emergency Management
Gisele Parry
 Regional Client Services Director
 Hagerty Consulting, Inc.

Purpose
 Review the methodology and process used to develop
the evacuation framework
 Review the response coordination concepts that were
developed to help Southwest Florida (SW FL) Region 6
evacuate
 Identify and discuss how these concepts can work for
your region
Southwest Florida Regional Evacuation Planning 5

Agenda
 Welcome and introductions
 Evacuation issues across the nation
 Evacuation issues in SW FL Region 6
 Building a Regional Coordination Framework
 Open discussion

Does An Evacuation Cause a
Secondary Disaster?
7

Recent Mass Evacuation Events
3,000,000
500,000
1,200,000
3,100,000
1,000,000
1,900,000
375,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Hurricane Floyd,
1999
World Trade
Center, 2001
Hurricane
Katrina, 2005
Hurricane Rita,
2005
California
Wildfires, 2007
Hurricane
Gustav, 2008
Hurricane Sandy,
2012
# OF EVACUEES

Atlanta 2014: Is this what an improvised
nuclear device (IND) event might look like?

Lessons Learned
10
 Evacuation is not the only solution
• Reduce the number of people to evacuate
 Use common evacuation terminology
• Optional evacuation, voluntary evacuation, non-mandatory
evacuation causes an over-evacuation
• Without clear directives, people assume what protective
action to take.
• Help residents visualize threats.

Lessons Learned cont. 1
11
 Understand your population demographics
• Identify all subsets of transportation dependent communities, the
“AGARs”
• Senior citizens are the sub-group least likely to evacuate, especially
if they have pets.
• Twenty percent of all pets taken to a shelter are never reclaimed by
owners.
• Hospitals and assisted care facility evacuation plans need to be
realistic and validated.
• Tourists are the least prepared sub-group, but they have the means
to leave affected area immediately.

12
 Evacuation authority at state, county, and local levels must be
clearly defined and rehearsed for the system to work.
• Communication and coordination between states and jurisdictions,
special districts must improve.
• Establish a unified coordination group made up of all stakeholders.
 Identify ways to decrease logistical demands
• Evacuation distance correlates with an increase in logistical needs. An
effective evacuation should aim to move the least amount of people the
shortest distance possible.
• Evacuation routes need to guide residents to areas that can support them.
• Plan ahead and take into account intersecting evacuation routes.
• The demand for evacuation shelters correlates to household income.

13
 Contraflow of roadways may not be effective.
 Plan effective use of alternative modes of
transportation.
• School buses are not always the most viable solution.
 Tap into emerging technology like waze and uber

Evacuation Planning in
SW FL Region 6

SW FL Region 6
16
 Charlotte
 Collier
 Desoto
 Glades
 Hendry
 Highlands
 Lee
 Manatee
 Okeechobee
 Sarasota

SW FL Regional Planning Impetus
17
 Most difficult area of the county to evacuate by Atkins
North America – 2012
 Labeled as a Special Hurricane Preparedness District by the
Florida Department of Emergency Management (FDEM)
• High risk of storm surge inundation
• Extremely high regional evacuation times
• Limited roadway capacity
• Limited sheltering capacity
• Large mobile and manufactured home populations
• Large elderly population

Region 6 Evacuation Zones
20
 Evacuation Zones:
• A+B+C
 Population:
• 1,350,547
Collier County does not have formally
established evacuation zones. Their
zones displayed on these maps are their
storm surge from the SW FL Regional
Evacuation Study.

Region 6 Evacuation Zones
21
 Evacuation Zones:
• A+B+C+D+E
 Population:
• 1,819,299
Collier County does not have formally
established evacuation zones. Their
zones displayed on these maps are their
storm surge from the SW FL Regional
Evacuation Study.

Population-At-Risk from Hurricanes
by Evacuation Zone*
22Southwest Florida Regional Evacuation Planning
* 2010 SW FL and Tampa Bay Regional Evacuation Study 2015 population estimates
** Total anticipated for SW FL regional evacuation
County
Up to
Zone A
Up to
Zone B
Up to
Zone C
Up to
Zone D
Up to
Zone E
Lee 104,882 329,027 509,382 580,010 657,895
Collier 149,477 252,138 325,937 338,934 342,278
Charlotte 77,504 164,106 187,436 191,996 192,175
Manatee 45,583 74,362 108,656 179,470 278,548
Sarasota 22,776 76,104 219,136 317,406 348,403
Region 6
Coastal
Counties
296,117 895,737 1,350,547** 1,607,816 1,819,299

Forecast Error Challenges
23
Local evacuation decisions made with limited and changing information
Average Track Forecast Errors (2012-2016)
 Five days out  196 n miles
 Four days out  149 n miles
 Three days out  103 n miles
 Two days out  70 n miles
 One day out  40 n miles
 12 hours out  25 n miles
 National Hurricane Center (NHC) continuing to work on timing and intensity
 Rapidly intensifying/weakening storms still a challenge

Timing, Trigger, and Approach
24
 Timing
• Regional conference calls per usual when counties enter
five-day forecast cone
• Large scale regional evacuation would require three to
five days
 Trigger(s)
• Any Region 6 county Zone C or higher evacuation
(approx. 20 feet or more storm surge)
 Phased Evacuation (In-County and In-Region)
• Sync evacuations among counties (i.e., all Zone As are
ordered simultaneously, then Bs)

Regional Shelter Capacity Outside
Zone A, B, and C
* Shelter spaces outside of Zone A, B, and C (or equivalent)
County Shelter Capacity *
Charlotte County 0
Collier County 7,300
Desoto County 1,900
Glades County 350
Hendry County 9,942
Highlands County 1,980
Lee County 11,003
Manatee County 32,500
Okeechobee County 9,000
Sarasota County 14,000
Total Regional Evacuation Shelter Capacity 87,975

Planning Timeline
26
 April 2013 – FDEM Shelter Meeting
• Participants agree to collaborate on regional evacuation planning efforts
 October 2013 –Current Issue In Emergency Management Meeting
• Decision was made that Region 6 counties would identify capabilities and
provide list of resource needs to State
 November 2013 – Spring 2016
• Region 6 counties and FDEM Region 6 Coordinator hold multiple planning
meetings to address regional evacuation concept of operation and resource
management gaps
• Local response partners, additional state agencies, and Region 7 counties
participate

Planning Timeline cont.
27
 Summer 2016 – Spring 2017
• Region 6 uses Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 State Homeland Security Grant
Program funds to hire regional evacuation professionals (Hagerty
Consulting, Inc.) to draft Regional Evacuation Guide/Operational
tools and facilitate a regional tabletop exercise
• As part of the planning effort in November 2017, the region meets
with FDEM leadership and Emergency Support Function (ESF) Leads
to review plan concepts
• March 2017 conduct regional tabletop exercise to socialize plan
concepts

Exercise Participation
28
 American Red Cross
 Cape Coral Emergency Management
 Charlotte County Emergency
Management Agency; Fire and
Emergency Medical Services; Health
Department
 Desoto County Emergency Management
Agency
 Florida Department of Health
 Florida Department of Law Enforcement
 Florida Department of Transportation
 Florida Division of Emergency
Management
 Florida Emergency Preparedness
Association
 Florida State Emergency Response Team
 Fort Myers Fire and Hazmat
 Glades County Emergency Management
Agency; School District, Sherriff's Office
 Highlands County Emergency Management
Agency
 Lee County Department of Public Safety;
Emergency Management Agency; Health
Department; Office of Communications;
Sherriff's Office; Transit
 Manatee County Area Transit; Emergency
Management Agency,
 Okeechobee County Emergency
Management Agency
 Salvation Army
 Sarasota County Emergency Management
Agency; Health and Human Services

Overview of The
Regional Coordination Guide

Regional Evacuation Guide Overview
32
 The overall objective of this initiative is to:
• Develop a regional evacuation plan concept
• Design and conduct a tabletop exercise
 The project consisted of five phases:
• Phase 1: Kickoff Meeting and Data Collection
• Phase 2: Regional Evacuation Framework Development Meetings
• Phase 3: Regional Evacuation Framework Development
• Phase 4: Regional Evacuation Tabletop Exercise Design
• Phase 5: Tabletop Exercise Facilitation and After Action Report
Development

Regional Evacuation Guide Scope
33
 Create an all-hazards regional evacuation framework (“Regional
Coordination Guide (RCG)”) that addresses operational and
policy challenges involved in significant evacuation operations
• Covers Region 6 counties in SW FL
• Using information and feedback provided by stakeholders
• Leveraging existing studies, models, and research on transportation
models, clearance time, road capacity, etc.
 Design and conduct a Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation
(HSEEP)-compliant tabletop exercise to validate the procedures
outlined in the newly developed regional evacuation framework

Document Structure
34
The RCG is divided into two parts:
 Part 1: Elements of Regional Coordination
• Overview of evacuation concept of operations
• Detail on the Unified Coordination Group (UCG)
• Operational phases and common terminology
 Part 2: Operational Tools
• Quick reference materials for executing the plan

Basic Planning Principles
35
 For both notice and no-notice events, all hazards.
 Articulate the regional consensus on operational strategies.
 Move as few people as possible the shortest distance.
 Shelter-in-place always considered as the first option.
 Establishing a common understanding, including language and general
approach across the region.
 Promote phased, zone-based, omnidirectional evacuation options
evacuation movement.

Common Terminology
36
 Evacuation Sites and
Facilities
• Evacuation assembly point
• Regional hub reception
center
• Shelter
 Evacuation Populations
• Self-evacuees
• Shadow evacuees
• Transportation dependent
populations (TDP)
 Types of Protective
Actions
• Shelter-in-Place
• Point-to-Point
• Hub-and-Spoke
 Types of Incidents
• Notice v. no-notice
 Types of Evacuation
Communities
• Sending community
• Pass-through community
• Host community

Unified Coordination Group
37
 UCG is a virtual mechanism designed to ensure shelter-in-place
and evacuation actions are coordinated.
 UCG coordination focuses on the following:
• Exchange shelter-in-place and evacuation information, including
evacuation sites and facilities.
• Enable real-time decision making across jurisdictional borders.
• Establish a clear and consistent message to the public with
recommended actions.
• Prioritize the management of local and state resources during shelter-in-
place and evacuation operations.

UCG Task Forces
38
 Mass Care Task Force
• The Mass Care Task Force will
coordinate mass care logistics on
a regional level.
 Traffic Management Task
Force
• The Traffic Management Task
Force collaborates on traffic
management operations such as
route determination, traffic
control points, major bottlenecks,
and transportation resources and
assets.
 Re-Entry Task Force
• The Re-Entry Task Force
streamlines re-entry operations
and ensures return of TDP.

Shelter Strategies
Strategy Pros Cons
 Fastest protective
action to employ
 Less costly and
disruptive
 Preferable in poor
weather conditions
x Not safe in all hazards
(e.g., plumes reacting
to common substances)
x Short-term protection
only
x Dependent on resource
availability at location
of shelter
 Fastest evacuation
action to employ
 Most direct and
streamlined
 Least resource-
intensive evacuation
concept
x May have limited
capacity for very large
displacements
x Not ideal if end-state
unknown
 Increased capacity
 Multiple levels of
triage
 Provides layover to get
large population out of
harm’s way
x Delayed onset, takes
time to organize
x Requires additional
resources
x Requires extensive
coordination
X
Strategy 1:
Shelter-in-Place
Directly to  RESIDENCE/BUSINESS

Evacuee Support Process

Regional Hub Reception Center
(RHRC)
41
RHRCs will:
 Meet immediate, life safety needs.
 Meet evacuees’ other needs or
demonstrate reasonable accommodation.
 Register and assess evacuees.
 Identify the most appropriate sheltering
solutions for evacuees.
 Coordinate the distribution of evacuees,
avoid overwhelming local jurisdictions.
 Coordinate the transport of individuals to
the assigned shelters or welcome centers.
RHRCs will NOT:
 Shelter individuals for
more than 24 hours.
 Provide ongoing mass
care services.
 Provide skilled medical
care.

RHRC Footprint

Public Information
43
 Coordination of public
information dissemination is
critical for:
• Ensuring the most vulnerable
populations are evacuated first.
• Sending consistent and clear
messages to the public.
• Performing rumor monitoring and
management.
 It gets the right information to
the public in a timely and
consistent manner.
 Pre-scripted or just-in-time
messaging
 Agreement on terminology
and message
 Target audience for
distribution, to include phased
and zone- based
communications
 Coordination of message
timing to implement
protective actions

Resource Management
44
 Large incidents impacting multiple jurisdictions in the
Region will require resource coordination.
 The UCG may be utilized to discuss the allocation of
resources:
• Access and functional needs, transportation dependent
populations, and household pet evacuations.
 Jurisdictions follow FDEM’s established procedures.

Phased Re-Entry

Making the Plan Work: Operational
Tools
46
 UCG Conference Call Agenda: Guide for UCG communication.
 UCG Execution Checklist: Phased reference for actions expected
of the UCG.
 UCG Decision Support Tool: Identifies key decision points,
barriers to success, and essential functions.
 Essential Elements of Information: Supports the establishment
of and agreement on regional essential elements of information
(EEI).
 Mass Care Decision Support Tool: Identifies key decision points,
barriers to success, and essential functions.

Guidance for Further Planning:
Operational Tools
47
 Local Jurisdiction Evacuation Plan Checklist: Cross-
referencing existing local evacuation plans with the
contents laid out in RCG.
 Public Information Guidance: Research and guidance
for effective public information messaging for regional
evacuation operations.

How to Apply These Concepts To Your
Region
48
 Required representatives
from neighboring
jurisdictions
• Coordination of efforts
and timing
• Sharing of resources
 All-Hazards
• UCG establishes a
framework for
coordination to respond
to any type of disaster
 Identify an effective method for maximizing
shelter resources such as employing a RHRC
• Identify potential locations
• Identify how to staffing and equip
• Use of common technology tools like National
Mass Evacuation Tracking Systems (NMETS)
 Leverage current coordinating mechanisms
• Regional coordination call lead by FDEM
Regional Liaison
 Develop tools for communicating
evacuation concepts
• Plan summary

For More Information
51
 Sign up to receive copies of the SW FL Region 6 Plan
 Contact Sandra, Lee, or Gisele
Sandra Tapfumaneyi
Operations Chief
Lee County Emergency
Management
239-533-0614
STapfumaneyi@leegov.com
Lee Mayfield
Planning Chief
Lee County Emergency
Management
239-533-0620
lmayfield@leegov.com
Gisele Parry
Regional Client Services
Director
Hagerty Consulting, Inc.
813-597-7141

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