Many children are interested in complex issues which involve visualizing effects of multiple factors over time and space, factoring in uncertainty, and adopting multiple perspectives. Technology-based tools like Netlogo, Loopy and Plectica, among others, enable school students to model such issues in a sophisticated manner. This talk at the NAGC convention 2019 shares our experience in using such tools with students.

1. USINGTECHNOLOGY
TOOLS
TO UNDERSTAND
COMPLEX PHENOMENA
VishnuteerthAgnihotri

2. Changing eating habits in a group
■ Group Convention- Fries & Coke over Fruit & Kombucha
■ Minimum Percentage of ‘Health Junkies’ to switch the group
convention to Fruit & Kombucha?
– At least 75%
– At least 50%
– At least 25%

3. 5 Friends and a Purple Cap
0 1 2 3 4 5
■ Threshold for wearing the purple cap
– 0- will wear anyhow
– 1- If one other person wears
– …..
– 5- will not wear even if everyone else wears

4. 5 Friends and a Purple Cap
0 1 3 2 4
1 1 1 2 1
A
B

5. 5 Friends and a Purple Cap
0 1 3 2 4
1 1 1 2 1
A
B

6. Changing eating habits in a group
■ Group Convention- Fries & Coke over Fruit & Kombucha
■ Minimum Percentage of ‘Health Junkies’ to switch the group
convention to Fruit & Kombucha?
– At least 75%
– At least 50%
– At least 25%

7. Tipping Points and Social Convention..
Damon Centola et al. Science
2018;360:1116-1119

8. Non-LinearTipping Points Examples..
Uprising in Egypt, 2011 Shoes that became cool again

9. Humankind has not woven the web of
life. We are but one thread within it.
Whatever we do to the web, we do to
ourselves. All things are bound together.
All things connect. – Chief Seattle
Complexity and Connectedness

10. Everything should be made as simple
as possible, but not simpler.- attributed to
Albert Einstein
Simple is good, but simplistic?

11. maybe pushing on that wall will give some space…

12. Oops!

13. Dangers of oversimplification in an
interconnected world
Saved millions of
lives, but….
Led to severe
environmental damage

14. Dangers of oversimplification in an
interconnected world…. many many examples
many unintended consequences…
■ Antibiotics  superbugs
■ Corn ethanol  groundwater depletion
■ Biodiesel  burning forests in SE Asia
many unforeseen events
■ 2008 Financial Crisis
■ Revolutions in ArabWorld
■ ……

15. Need new ways of looking at cause and effect…
and new tools
Paradigms of causality
■ Linear  Domino/ Cyclic/ Feedback
loops..
■ Local & Immediate  Distant & Delayed
■ Centralized & Direct  Distributed & Emergent
■ Deterministic  Probabilistic
■ Single Perspective  Multi-perspective
■ …….

16. Need new ways of looking at cause and effect…
and new tools
And tools to explore complex causality/ perspectives
■ Mental models/ templates e.g. structure drives
behavior
■ Representations
■ Computer simulation tools
■ ……

17. Extending human intelligence using computers
■ The medium is an extension of the mind- text literacy
revolutionized human thinking; Arabic numerals did
■ Using a computer can be similarly revolutionary (this
is NOT how computers are normally used)

18. Tom Schelling (Nobel Prize) vs Middle School
Students… micromotives and macrosegregation

19. Tom Schelling (Nobel Prize) vs Middle School
Students… micromotives and macrosegregation

20. A look at some computer-based tools for
exploring complex phenomena
■ Loopy
■ Vensim
■ Plectica
■ Netlogo

21. Vicious
Cycle
Subsidy-
Breaking the
Cycle
Causal Loop Diagrams | Cyclic Effects
Should PublicTransport be Subsidized?
Loopy

22. Loopy Causal Loop Diagrams | Non-Obvious Causes; Delayed Effects
Mapping
the
System;
Studying
the
Relations
hips

23. Causal Loop Diagrams | Non-Obvious Causes; Delayed EffectsLoopy

24. Vensim Causal Loop Diagrams | Mapping the System; Recognizing
Balancing & Reinforcing Loops

25. Vensim Stock Flow Diagrams | Quantitative Modeling to explore patterns
and trends
500 Rabbits and 30 Foxes- what will happen to populations over 50 years?

26. Vensim Stock Flow Diagrams | Quantitative Modeling to explore patterns
and trends
500 Rabbits and 30 Foxes- what will happen to populations over 50 years?...

27. Plectica Mapping Perspectives
US CivilWar- 2 Perspectives- NorthernView

28. Plectica Mapping Perspectives
US CivilWar- 2 Perspectives- SouthernView

29. Plectica Mapping Perspectives
Thinking and Biases- 12 Angry Men..1

30. Plectica Mapping Perspectives
Thinking and Biases- 12 Angry Men..2

31. Netlogo Agent Based Modeling; Emergent Effects;Tipping Points
Density & Spread of Forest Fires.. 20%

32. Netlogo Agent Based Modeling; Emergent Effects;Tipping Points
Density & Spread of Forest Fires.. 40%

33. Netlogo Agent Based Modeling; Emergent Effects;Tipping Points
Density & Spread of Forest Fires.. 55%

34. Netlogo Agent Based Modeling; Emergent Effects;Tipping Points
Density & Spread of Forest Fires.. 57%

35. Netlogo Agent Based Modeling; Emergent Effects;Tipping Points; Probabilistic
Thinking
Density & Spread of Forest Fires.. 59%

36. Density of
Trees
Percentage of
Forest Burnt
Down (%)
20% 0.5
40% 1.0
55% 5.0
57% 15.3
59% 89.3
Density ofTreesVs Percentage of Forest Burnt DownNetlogo

37. Netlogo
Netlogo: Uses in Mainstream Curriculum
■ Physics
– Electricity; Heat
■ Chemistry
– Gas laws; Diffusion; Chemical Reactions &
Kinetics; Radioactivity
■ Mathematics
– Fractions; Division; Probability

38. KeyTakeaways
■ Causality is not always simple (difficult to see effects
separated in time and space)
■ Important to understand different mechanisms of
causality
■ Use tools to explore causality (models of causality can
transfer from mainstream curricular topics to other areas)
■ Resources in handout a possible starting point

39. vishnu@GenWise.in
+91 9342247734
https://GenWise.in
https://www.facebook.com/GenWise.in/
https://twitter.com/GenWise_
Be inTouch

40. APPENDIX

41. Extending human intelligence using computers..
Computers can be the technical foundation
of a new and dramatically enhanced
literacy, which will act in many ways like
current literacy and which will have
penetration and depth of influence
comparable to what we have already
experienced in coming to achieve a mass
text-based literacy – Andrea DiSessa

42. Simplifying
Assumption
Reframing for Reality Example
Simple Linear Non-Linear (Domino, Cyclic,
Escalating…)
Event Based Steady State
Sequential Simultaneous
Obvious causes/
mechanisms
Non- Obvious causes/
mechanisms
Intentional Agents Unintentional Agents
Deterministic Probabilistic
Local & Immediate Distant & Delayed
Centralized & Direct Distributed & Emergent
My Perspective is the
whole picture
Multiple Perspectives provide the
whole picture