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A REPORT FROM THE
SINGULARITY
SU?
TO	
  USE	
  EXPONENTIALLY	
  GROWING	
  TECHNOLOGIES	
  TO
POSITIVELY	
  IMPACT	
  1	
  BILLION	
  PEOPLE	
  IN	
  TEN	
  YEARS
80	
  STUDENTS	
  FROM	
  36	
  COUNTRIES	
  BROUGHT	
  TOGETHER
“EXPONENTIALLY	
  GROWING	
  
TECHNOLOGIES?”
COMPUTERS	
  DOUBLE	
  THEIR	
  PROCESSING	
  POWER	
  EVERY	
  TWO	
  YEARS.
“There	
  is	
  a	
  world	
  market	
  for	
  maybe	
  five	
  
computers.”
-­‐	
  Tom	
  Watson,	
  Founder	
  of	
  IBM
“Cinema	
  is	
  a	
  fad.”
-­‐	
  Charlie	
  Chaplin
“Flight	
  by	
  machines	
  heavier	
  than	
  air	
  is	
  
unpracZcal	
  and	
  insignificant,	
  if	
  not	
  
u[erly	
  impossible.”	
  
-­‐	
  Canadian	
  mathemaZcian	
  Simon	
  Newcomb,	
  18	
  months	
  before	
  the	
  Wright	
  
Brothers’	
  flight
SINGULARITY TRAINS BUSINESS LEADERS,
ENTREPRENEURS, SCIENTISTS, &
INNOVATORS TO THINK EXPONENTIALLY.
MOST BUSINESSES,
GOVERNMENTS, SYSTEMS
PLANNERS THINK LINEARLY
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF
TECHNOLOGY.
Dr. Philipp Kallerhoff
Jumiya, Inc
Eli Mohamad
Jumiya, Inc
MEET	
  CHRIS
THE	
  INTERSECTION	
  OF	
  SYSTEMS
FOR	
  EXAMPLE:
CHRIS’	
  DOCTOR	
  BILLS	
  
WERE	
  SENT	
  STRAIGHT	
  
TO	
  A	
  COLLECTION	
  
AGENCY,	
  HURTING	
  
HIS	
  CREDIT	
  BY	
  100	
  
POINTS.
62OF	
  BANKRUPTCIES	
  ARE
BECAUSE	
  OF	
  MEDICAL	
  DEBT
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2012
%
CREDIT	
  SCORING	
  IS	
  A	
  BLACK	
  BOX
Meet the gatekeepers.
IRMA	
  WORKED	
  WITH	
  CHRIS	
  
AND	
  WALKED	
  WITH	
  HIM	
  
HAND	
  IN	
  HAND.
HER	
  WORK	
  REQUIRES	
  AN	
  UNDERSTANDING	
  OF	
  
HOW	
  MULTIPLE	
  SYSTEMS	
  INTERSECT	
  AND	
  EFFECT	
  
CHRIS’	
  LIFE.
BUT	
  IRMA’S	
  ONLY	
  ONE	
  
PERSON.
HOW	
  CAN	
  WE	
  BETTER	
  UNDERSTAND	
  HOW	
  
COMPLEX	
  SYSTEMS	
  AND	
  BEHAVIORS	
  
IMPACT	
  OUR	
  LIVES?
MACHINE	
  LEARNING	
  IS
FINDING	
  PATTERNS
IN	
  COMPLEXITY
NETFLIX & AMAZON RECOMMENDATIONS
WITH	
  PEOPLE	
  LIKE	
  CHRIS	
  IN	
  MIND:	
  
OUR	
  TEAM	
  USED	
  MACHINE	
  LEARNING	
  EXPLORED	
  
THE	
  CONNECTIONS	
  IN	
  HEALTH	
  AND	
  FINANCE.
SURVEYED	
  HEALTH
SURVEYED	
  FINANCE
$
THE	
  TEAM	
  FOUND	
  
PATTERNS
RUNNING	
  HAS	
  6x	
  CORRELATION	
  WITH	
  TIMELY	
  BILL	
  PAYMENT
DRINKING	
  HAS	
  A	
  6x	
  CORRELATION	
  WITH	
  BANKRUPTCY
$80
%
ACCURACY
HOW	
  CAN	
  WE	
  LEARN	
  MORE	
  ABOUT	
  THESE	
  
CONNECTIONS?
FIRST:
250	
  million	
  transac5ons
500,000	
  users	
  
Can	
  we	
  predict	
  member	
  behavior,	
  improve	
  profitability,	
  
and	
  reduce	
  risk	
  by	
  looking	
  at	
  a	
  dataset	
  including:
PREDICT	
  DEFAULTS	
  WITH	
  80%	
  ACCURACY
RESULTS	
  DIFFERED	
  FROM	
  TRADITIONAL	
  CREDIT	
  SCORE	
  BY	
  10%
MODEL	
  APPROVES	
  1%	
  MORE	
  LOANS	
  AND	
  REDUCES	
  DEFAULTS	
  
BY	
  15%
“For	
  example,	
  5%	
  of	
  your	
  members	
  would	
  be	
  10%	
  more	
  
profitable	
  if	
  they	
  used	
  a	
  loan	
  product.	
  15%	
  of	
  
those	
  members	
  are	
  very	
  likely	
  to	
  sign	
  up	
  for	
  the	
  product,	
  
and	
  using	
  our	
  new	
  credit	
  risk	
  model	
  we	
  can	
  approve	
  10%	
  
more	
  people	
  for	
  the	
  loan”
PREDICT	
  PRODUCT	
  LIFE	
  CYCLE	
  •	
  IMPROVE	
  
PROFITABILITY	
  •	
  REDUCE	
  RISK
For	
  example:
THE	
  FIRST	
  MINIMUM	
  VIABLE	
  PRODUCT
NEXT:
CONNECT	
  THESE	
  FINDINGS	
  WITH	
  
WELLNESS	
  BEHAVIOR.
The	
  account	
  that	
  improves	
  as	
  you	
  do.
Enable	
  members	
  to	
  increase	
  and	
  improve	
  access	
  to	
  financial	
  
products	
  and	
  be	
  rewarded	
  for	
  a	
  healthier	
  lifestyle.	
  
42
By	
  engaging	
  in	
  healthy	
  behavior,	
  members	
  can	
  
posi5vely	
  impact	
  their	
  financial	
  access	
  by	
  
improving	
  rates	
  and	
  balances.
43
44
Use	
  data	
  from	
  devices	
  like	
  Nike+,	
  Fitbit,	
  Runkeeper,	
  or	
  100+	
  other	
  providers...
...or	
  just	
  your	
  
phone...
Purpose
1. Generate	
  new	
  revenue	
  from	
  exisZng	
  products
2. Help	
  retain	
  exisZng	
  and	
  a]ract	
  new	
  CU	
  members	
  
3. Improve	
  overall	
  member	
  profitability,	
  	
  reduce	
  lending	
  
risk,	
  and	
  increase	
  repayment
Calls	
  to	
  ac5on
• The	
  research	
  suggests	
  healthy	
  living	
  members	
  
are	
  be]er	
  risk	
  and	
  more	
  profitable
• Researchers	
  were	
  able	
  to	
  predict	
  the	
  next	
  best	
  
product	
  using	
  transacZonal	
  data
• The	
  research	
  suggests	
  that	
  quanZfied	
  self	
  data	
  
can	
  improve	
  the	
  predic5on	
  model	
  even	
  further
• AddiZonal	
  data	
  sets	
  -­‐	
  economic	
  or	
  locaZon	
  data,	
  
for	
  example	
  -­‐	
  impact	
  on	
  consumer	
  behavior.
52
IS	
  THERE	
  A	
  
MEASURABLE	
  
CONNECTION	
  
BETWEEN	
  PHYSICAL	
  
AND	
  FINANCIAL	
  
HEALTH?
YES
CAN	
  WE	
  PREDICT	
  
BEHAVIOR	
  BASED	
  ON	
  
THOSE	
  
CONNECTIONS?
YES
CAN	
  WE	
  USE	
  DATA	
  
TO	
  PREDICT	
  AND	
  
IMPROVE	
  MEMBERS	
  
FINANCIAL	
  HEALTH?
YES
	
  CAN	
  WE	
  INTEGRATE	
  HEALTH	
  AND	
  FINANCIAL	
  DATA	
  TO	
  MOVE	
  
MEMBERS	
  ALONG	
  A	
  PATH	
  TO	
  TOTAL	
  WELLNESS?
WE	
  NEED	
  OPT-­‐IN	
  MEMBER	
  DATA
JOIN	
  THE	
  PILOT	
  PROJECT
Calls	
  to	
  ac5on
Get	
  involved	
  in	
  the	
  pilot	
  project
• Pilot	
  starts	
  in	
  July	
  and	
  will	
  last	
  9	
  months
• 3	
  credit	
  unions,	
  with	
  1	
  more	
  spot	
  available
• All	
  necessary	
  infrastructure	
  provided	
  through	
  
plagorm	
  at	
  www.walkmo.re
• The	
  plagorm	
  will	
  be	
  adapted	
  to	
  fit	
  each	
  credit	
  
union’s	
  needs
h]p://www.walkmo.re
eli.mohamad@singularityu.org
philipp.kallerhoff@singularityu.org
brentd@filene.org
QUESTIONS?	
  
THANK	
  YOU!

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NCUR Presentation Walkmore

  • 1. A REPORT FROM THE SINGULARITY
  • 2. SU?
  • 3.
  • 4. TO  USE  EXPONENTIALLY  GROWING  TECHNOLOGIES  TO POSITIVELY  IMPACT  1  BILLION  PEOPLE  IN  TEN  YEARS 80  STUDENTS  FROM  36  COUNTRIES  BROUGHT  TOGETHER
  • 6. COMPUTERS  DOUBLE  THEIR  PROCESSING  POWER  EVERY  TWO  YEARS.
  • 7.
  • 8. “There  is  a  world  market  for  maybe  five   computers.” -­‐  Tom  Watson,  Founder  of  IBM “Cinema  is  a  fad.” -­‐  Charlie  Chaplin “Flight  by  machines  heavier  than  air  is   unpracZcal  and  insignificant,  if  not   u[erly  impossible.”   -­‐  Canadian  mathemaZcian  Simon  Newcomb,  18  months  before  the  Wright   Brothers’  flight
  • 9. SINGULARITY TRAINS BUSINESS LEADERS, ENTREPRENEURS, SCIENTISTS, & INNOVATORS TO THINK EXPONENTIALLY. MOST BUSINESSES, GOVERNMENTS, SYSTEMS PLANNERS THINK LINEARLY ABOUT THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY.
  • 10. Dr. Philipp Kallerhoff Jumiya, Inc Eli Mohamad Jumiya, Inc
  • 13.
  • 14. FOR  EXAMPLE: CHRIS’  DOCTOR  BILLS   WERE  SENT  STRAIGHT   TO  A  COLLECTION   AGENCY,  HURTING   HIS  CREDIT  BY  100   POINTS.
  • 15. 62OF  BANKRUPTCIES  ARE BECAUSE  OF  MEDICAL  DEBT AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2012 %
  • 16. CREDIT  SCORING  IS  A  BLACK  BOX Meet the gatekeepers.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. IRMA  WORKED  WITH  CHRIS   AND  WALKED  WITH  HIM   HAND  IN  HAND.
  • 21.
  • 22. HER  WORK  REQUIRES  AN  UNDERSTANDING  OF   HOW  MULTIPLE  SYSTEMS  INTERSECT  AND  EFFECT   CHRIS’  LIFE.
  • 23. BUT  IRMA’S  ONLY  ONE   PERSON.
  • 24. HOW  CAN  WE  BETTER  UNDERSTAND  HOW   COMPLEX  SYSTEMS  AND  BEHAVIORS   IMPACT  OUR  LIVES?
  • 25. MACHINE  LEARNING  IS FINDING  PATTERNS IN  COMPLEXITY
  • 26. NETFLIX & AMAZON RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 27.
  • 28. WITH  PEOPLE  LIKE  CHRIS  IN  MIND:   OUR  TEAM  USED  MACHINE  LEARNING  EXPLORED   THE  CONNECTIONS  IN  HEALTH  AND  FINANCE.
  • 31. THE  TEAM  FOUND   PATTERNS
  • 32. RUNNING  HAS  6x  CORRELATION  WITH  TIMELY  BILL  PAYMENT
  • 33. DRINKING  HAS  A  6x  CORRELATION  WITH  BANKRUPTCY
  • 35. HOW  CAN  WE  LEARN  MORE  ABOUT  THESE   CONNECTIONS?
  • 37. 250  million  transac5ons 500,000  users   Can  we  predict  member  behavior,  improve  profitability,   and  reduce  risk  by  looking  at  a  dataset  including:
  • 38. PREDICT  DEFAULTS  WITH  80%  ACCURACY RESULTS  DIFFERED  FROM  TRADITIONAL  CREDIT  SCORE  BY  10% MODEL  APPROVES  1%  MORE  LOANS  AND  REDUCES  DEFAULTS   BY  15% “For  example,  5%  of  your  members  would  be  10%  more   profitable  if  they  used  a  loan  product.  15%  of   those  members  are  very  likely  to  sign  up  for  the  product,   and  using  our  new  credit  risk  model  we  can  approve  10%   more  people  for  the  loan” PREDICT  PRODUCT  LIFE  CYCLE  •  IMPROVE   PROFITABILITY  •  REDUCE  RISK For  example:
  • 39. THE  FIRST  MINIMUM  VIABLE  PRODUCT NEXT: CONNECT  THESE  FINDINGS  WITH   WELLNESS  BEHAVIOR.
  • 40. The  account  that  improves  as  you  do.
  • 41. Enable  members  to  increase  and  improve  access  to  financial   products  and  be  rewarded  for  a  healthier  lifestyle.  
  • 42. 42 By  engaging  in  healthy  behavior,  members  can   posi5vely  impact  their  financial  access  by   improving  rates  and  balances.
  • 43. 43
  • 44. 44 Use  data  from  devices  like  Nike+,  Fitbit,  Runkeeper,  or  100+  other  providers...
  • 45. ...or  just  your   phone...
  • 46. Purpose 1. Generate  new  revenue  from  exisZng  products 2. Help  retain  exisZng  and  a]ract  new  CU  members   3. Improve  overall  member  profitability,    reduce  lending   risk,  and  increase  repayment
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Calls  to  ac5on • The  research  suggests  healthy  living  members   are  be]er  risk  and  more  profitable • Researchers  were  able  to  predict  the  next  best   product  using  transacZonal  data • The  research  suggests  that  quanZfied  self  data   can  improve  the  predic5on  model  even  further • AddiZonal  data  sets  -­‐  economic  or  locaZon  data,   for  example  -­‐  impact  on  consumer  behavior.
  • 52. 52 IS  THERE  A   MEASURABLE   CONNECTION   BETWEEN  PHYSICAL   AND  FINANCIAL   HEALTH? YES CAN  WE  PREDICT   BEHAVIOR  BASED  ON   THOSE   CONNECTIONS? YES CAN  WE  USE  DATA   TO  PREDICT  AND   IMPROVE  MEMBERS   FINANCIAL  HEALTH? YES  CAN  WE  INTEGRATE  HEALTH  AND  FINANCIAL  DATA  TO  MOVE   MEMBERS  ALONG  A  PATH  TO  TOTAL  WELLNESS? WE  NEED  OPT-­‐IN  MEMBER  DATA JOIN  THE  PILOT  PROJECT
  • 53. Calls  to  ac5on Get  involved  in  the  pilot  project • Pilot  starts  in  July  and  will  last  9  months • 3  credit  unions,  with  1  more  spot  available • All  necessary  infrastructure  provided  through   plagorm  at  www.walkmo.re • The  plagorm  will  be  adapted  to  fit  each  credit   union’s  needs