1. To our Congressional Leaders – First Do No Harm.
You might not be able to make it better, but please don’t make it any worse.
The California Association of Realtors recently released 2nd quarter reports on the state of California housing. It
looks like sales and prices are both up slightly and affordability has slipped a bit. In Southwest California, our sales
are down slightly from a year ago, our prices are stable to moderately rising and affordability has ticked down from
64% to 60% in June for Riverside County.
Regionally, housing affordability fell in the higher-priced areas of the state, such as the San Francisco Bay Area and
Central Coast, but edged up in lower-priced areas, such as the Central Valley. At 77 percent, San Bernardino County
was the most affordable, while San Mateo County was the least affordable, with only 21 percent of households
able to afford the county’s median-priced home. The Housing Affordability Index is considered the most
fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.
It was only 3 or 4 years ago that affordability in Riverside county, and much of Southwest County, was under 20%. If
there’s an upside to this current debacle, it has to be the availability of housing to nearly 3 times as many families .
That includes many first time home buyers who have been qualified under the rarified atmosphere of the current
lending jungle and would appear to be taking homeownership seriously. The default rate for newer loans has fallen
way off, which is one potential good sign for the future. The size of the down payment is secondary to rational
qualifying to determine a good loan candidate. That’s why VA and FHA loans continue to outperform even loans
like the QRM with 20% down. Qualified buyers make good homeowners – skin-in-the-game is secondary.
This market has also been a boon for investors. In California it is now estimated that 1st time buyers and investors
each make up about 40% of some markets, including ours, with 20% being made up of your more typical move-up
or move-down buyer. Again, the government on one hand is working to make it more difficult for lenders to loan to
investors while on the other hand the President proposes that Fannie & Freddie work hand in hand with investors
to take some bulk inventory off the market. Don’t know which end is up? Join the club.
When Congress reconvenes next month, or next week as the case may be, Mortgage Interest Deductions will be
part of the mix before the “Super Committee”. They are looking increasingly agreeable to lower the top rate
from $1 million to $500,000 (or possible $250,000), and the deduction for 2nd homes will also be on the block. How
many of us will that impact? Hard to say, but it will invariably hit us harder in California than in 70% of the country.
Other high priced, or formerly high priced, or hope to again be high priced areas of the country are lobbying hard
to keep that from happening but obviously we’re part of the ‘rich’ so our concerns have less gravity.
Finally, I’ve been talking about the pending expiration of higher loan limits for Fannie & Freddie. Bills have been
introduced in both the House and Senate to extend the higher limits for awhile or for good. Housing can ill afford
another body blow at this delicate stage while the pending cut would deliver just that. The highest cost areas of the
country will reduce from $725,000 to $625,000 while the rest of us would revert to either $425,000 or 125% of the
local median price. Anyone trying to find a mortgage over $425,000 would be faced with higher interest rates,
higher down payments, and tighter loan qualification requirements beginning October 1. Yeah. That’s what we
need, higher cost and more regulation. First, do no harm.

2. 250
Southwest California Homes
Single Family Homes
200
Unit Sales
150
100
50
0
3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake
Sales – we knew they were headed back down since pending sales were down last month. Not
down a lot – watch for a little increase next month and another spike in September. If we keep the
current run rate, we’ll post sales volume close to last year, which was a good year. Sold 162 homes
in Temecula in July, 187 last year, 114 in 2009. Murrieta sold 168 homes last month, 180 last year
and 131 in 2009. Realtors often get into 90 day productivity cycles but I’ve never seen a whole
market do it.
Median price? Not much change – up $12,000 in Temecula ($308,901), up a grand in Murrieta
($272,306), down $500 in Lake Elsinore ($181,439). Lake Elsinore’s median two years ago was
$181,376 so if you live in Lake Elsinore your home is worth $63 more than it was two years ago.
Yippeee! Temecula was at $282,876 in July of 2009, up to $308,901 this year. Plodding along but
still better than 80% of the country.
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000 Southwest California Homes
Single Family Homes
$50,000
Median Price
$0
3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

3. 5
600 6 4
7 6 4 Southwest California Homes
2
500 1 July Demand
3 7
3 2 2
400 2
1 7 7
6
7 6 2
300 0 0 1 1
1 3 6 6 1 1
1
200 1 8 2 1 3
0
7
9
7 8 2 8 8 7 9 8 8 9 8 9
4 5 5 9 7 5 4
7 1 2 6 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 3 4 3
100 5 2 3 8 4
. . . . . .
0 1
4 8 8 2 9 0
0
On Market Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorbtion rate *
(Supply) Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar
There’s a new category at the end of the demand chart – the Absorption Rate. Absorption rate takes the number of
new listings that come on the market in a month compared to the number of closed sales that month. In the
Temecula market, for every new home listed, another one sold. That’s one reason the inventory remains low. Lake
Elsinore’s doing the same – actually selling more than they brought in last month with a low inventory.
It’s a sign of the times that with prolonged conditions like this that our prices aren’t rising. Economic uncertainty is
keeping money out of the lending market and more buyers on the sidelines.
This last chart shows the market activity by sales type in the area. Interesting to note – I haven’t published this
chart in a few months and the market has continued to shift. Short sales still have a miserable close rate in spite of
banks claiming expedited procedures. Bank Owned homes continue to fly out the door but they’re down to about
15% of our market. Standard sales have really taken off and it’s a mix of sales by actual people with equity still in
their homes (you’d be surprised how many there are) and ‘flippers’, people who have purchased a house, spruced it
up some and are reselling it. Standard sales are even with short sales right now with 42% of the market and with a
better closing rate than short sales.
July Market Activity by Sales Type
City Short Sales Bank Owned Standard
Active Sold % Active Sold % Active Sold %
Temecula 185 31 17% 59 50 85% 217 78 36%
Murrieta 210 48 23% 83 45 54% 262 72 27%
Lake Elsinore 182 32 18% 60 49 82% 79 34 43%
Menifee 182 32 18% 78 45 58% 164 54 33%
Wildomar 43 10 23% 14 10 71% 34 10 29%
Canyon Lake 29 6 21% 11 5 45% 73 9 12%
Total 831 159 19% 305 204 67% 829 257 31%
By Market Percentage
% of Active Listings % of Closed Sales
Bank Owned 15% 32%
Short Sales 42% 25%
Standard Sales 42% 41%
Other 1% 1%

4. This chart on the right shows what’s happened
to mortgage interest rates in California the
past 6 months. If you turned that chart upside
down, you’d have the unemployment chart.
The Fed just vowed to keep their fund rate at
the current level until 2013. Yet lenders, many
of whom are sitting on comfy reserves, are
loath to lend. Until they have some comfort
level with future policy, the market will be in
their grip. Even more-so if Fannie & Freddie
are pulled from the market as the President
has proposed. For the first time in nearly 100
years, housing availability would be totally
dependent on these same private lenders who
have frozen the market since 2007.
Chart by bankrate.com
In Riverside County
1 in every 143 housing units
received a foreclosure filing in The chart to the left and following page
July 2011. outlines the foreclosure market. Some areas of
the county were hit harder than others, some
areas of cities were hit harder than others.
Overall, Notices of Default and Notices of Sale
were down anywhere from 20% to 30% from a
Chart by RealtyTrac.com year ago.
Here’s more information on the foreclosure
market from ForeclosureRadar CEO & Founder
Sean O’Toole. "Our statistics clearly show that
real estate investors continue to far outperform
banks in dealing with distressed properties. Yet
politicians and bureaucrats are putting pressure
on banks to become landlords, which will hurt
local economic activity, as fewer properties are
made available to local investors, also
impacting their Realtors, contractors & property
managers; as well as to home buyers in need of
Total new foreclosure activity in July. affordable housing."