This poster was presented by Laila Akhlaghi at the International Conference on Family Planning (ICFP) in Kigali, Rwanda in November 2018.
The Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) Initiative was launched in 2012 to address high unmet need for contraception, especially in low and middle income countries. Increasing access to long acting hormonal contraceptives (LARCs), and specifically hormonal contraceptive implants is an important strategy for achieving increases in modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR).
Increasing access to contraceptive implants and ensuring demand is being met begins with accurate forecasting. This step precedes the process of supply planning, procurement, and distribution of these goods to service delivery points (SDPs) that make them available as a choice for women.
Several methods can be used in forecasting demand for contraceptives. How closely does contraceptive implant demand estimated from survey and demographics data align with actual data on insertions collected from service delivery points through eLMIS, LMIS, or DHIS II data?
The findings indicate that demographic estimates underestimate actual consumption for long-term methods. This has implications for the use of survey and demographic data (including CYPs), for forecasting demand for contraceptive implants.
The results also emphasize the importance of establishing and strengthening eLMIS systems that collect supply chain data and the use of this data for operational and management decisions to improve performance. Understanding true demand at the last mile of the supply chain, is an essential data element for managing supply chains. Without this information, supply chain managers have limited ability to increase performance and efficiency of their systems.