Harnessing science and innovation for sustainable livestock transformation. Using modelling as a suitable tool to assist decision-makers to manage the risk of FMD and similar diseases.

1. Harnessing science and
innovation for sustainable
livestock transformation

2. Using modelling as a suitable tool to assist decision-makers to manage
the risk of FMD and similar diseases.
Problem Statement
• Availability of predictive tools to
• assist decision-makers with a priori knowledge of realistic consequences of disease
incursions under different circumstances (‘what if’ scenarios)
• compare the impact of different control strategies
S. Stockreiter, F. Rosso, S. Yadav

3. European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS)
• Decision support tool to assist contingency planners and decision makers for
preparedness against FAST diseases
• Assesses the multi-country spread of an outbreak and its impacts (epidemiological
and economic)
• Operational in 13 countries (green), and development is in-progress for one country
(orange)
• Several countries have shown their interest and initial discussions are underway with
four countries (blue)
• EuFMD aims to upscale this model at the Pan-European level.

4. Benefits/potential impacts of EuFMDiS
• Study duration and possible spread of FMD introduction in different regions
• Compare various control strategies with respect to epidemiological and
economic outcomes
• Estimate the requirements of resources (i.e., vaccine doses, logistics,
personnel) and (economical) consequences of shortages
• Assess the benefit of multi-country resource-sharing mechanisms (i.e.,
diagnostic bank, personnel, disposal capacity, etc.)
• Assess the scale and economic impacts of multi-country spread of FMD

5. EuFMDiS- Challenges
• Determination of authoritative parameters – experience and relevance of
modelling networks
• “circular references” (some parameters used for control strategies depend
on output of the model)
• Possible fundamental changed dynamics within an actual crisis (economical,
financial, political, social)
• New virus types would require adaptation to different transmission dynamics
• Adaptation of the model to assess the ongoing crises
More info:
• https://www.fao.org/eufmd/global-
situation/eufmdis/es/
• Contact email: eufmd@fao.org
Modelling can be very useful for improve preparedness and response
capacity to crises however it is important to identify proper tools according
to objectives and data availability and to develop skills to use models and
interpret results

6. THANK YOU