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Financial/Netflix Example Response 1.docxResponse to Case 0:
Netflix
In an attempt to become the market leader and the biggest
player out there and to solidify its position as an internet
provider of movies and television shows for both kids and
adults, Netflix has made a lot of spectacular moves. However,
one that has been questioned is its move into producing its own
original shows. Original shows is expensive and Netflix has to
pay for it up front. So why did Netflix go into it and was it a
good idea? Netflix has plenty of subscribers and they could save
a lot of money. Original content is definitely a way for Netflix
to strengthen its business model.
One of the first things to consider is Netflix business model.
Netflix has customers, products, operations, financials,
competitors, and partners in its business model. All are really
important to its business model. The originals allow it to make
new partners with movie producers instead of using movie
studios to buy movies. This should save it 30% to 50% which
would improve its financials. Its going to change its operations
and its competitors won’t like it. Also, its product would
increase.
Netflix is an amazing company that has tons of movies and
shows that customers love, and one of my favorites that is an
original production is Orange Is the New Black. Because it has
so many shows, Netflix has millions of subscribers and these
subscribers pay $8.99 for a basic subscription, $12.99 for a
standard subscription and $15.99 for a premium subscription.
The prices were raised at the beginning of 2019. All of this has
made it possible for Netflix to make 15,794,341 thousand
dollars in 2018. Because it makes so much money, Netflix
should be able to figure out how to make a positive profit
instead of a negative one. Original content should help it be
able to turn its fortunes around. Many of the original
productions are really good shows. This should attract new
customers and help it grow its subscriber base. Netflix is
probably really good at making new movies because it knows so
much about its customers. Netflix is able to track a lot of
information about people, which helps it know what people like.
This can help Netflix find good shows and movies to produce.
This probably why its original products are so good.
Also, one of the things to think about is how Netflix competes
with other companies. Amazon and Hulu all have streaming
services. Others will soon follow and Apple is one of them.
Netflix wants to have something that the others don’t, so it is
important for Netflix to make new shows that they own. It helps
that Netflix has a great CEO. Reed Hastings has made a great
company culture that can be tough at times but really drives
good results. This is important to have in the movie industry
where people may not work hard. Its culture can help it make
sure movies are made correctly or so that people will like them.
Also, Netflix will be able to make movies for less money due to
the fact that they have a good culture. It could also help it get
good actors and producers due to the fact that it is Netflix.
So as I think about whether Netflix should make its own
movies, I think it makes sense. Netflix could save a lot of
money and build a really strong business model. I think it helps
to have a great CEO. Netflix should be around a long time.
Financial/asreported (1).xls
Sheet: asreported
Powered by Clearbit
Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc (NMS: FRSH)
Exchange rate used is that of the Year End reported date
As Reported Annual Balance Sheet
Report Date
12/31/2018
01/01/2018
01/02/2017
12/28/2015
12/29/2014
12/30/2013
12/31/2012
Currency
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Audit Status
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Consolidated
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Scale
Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions
Cash & cash equivalents
5.766
2.174
2.069
6.867
5.056
3.705
2.428
Customer receivables, gross
3.634
3.855
5.367
4.975
5.727
-
-
Reserve for doubtful accounts
0.07
0.067
0.037
0.031
0.066
-
-
Accounts receivable, net
3.564
3.788
5.33
4.944
5.661
2.43
1.947
Current portion of notes receivable
-
0.097
0.092
0.078
0.062
0.837
-
Inventories
0.549
0.719
0.917
0.868
0.64
0.495
0.335
Prepaid media development costs
0.724
0.376
0.606
0.352
0.593
0.016
0.897
Prepaid software & support
0.469
0.223
0.985
-
-
-
-
Prepaid occupancy related costs
0.136
-
-
-
-
-
-
Prepaid rent
-
0.549
0.622
-
-
-
-
Prepaid insurance
0.16
0.377
0.453
-
-
-
-
Prepaid rents & insurance
-
-
-
1.079
0.62
0.458
0.556
Taxes receivable
0.061
0.182
0.547
2.872
-
-
-
Other prepaid expenses
-
-
-
-
-
1.9
0.406
Subtotal prepaid expenses
-
-
-
-
-
2.374
1.859
Equity issuance costs
-
-
-
-
0.013
-
-
POS software licenses for resale
0.368
0.364
-
0.66
1.8
4.548
-
Assets held for sale
0.257
0.432
1.406
0.605
-
-
-
Advertising cooperative assets, restricted
-0.024
0.004
0.048
0.026
-
-
-
Other current assets
-
-
-
-
-
0.132
0.094
Other prepaid expenses & other current assets
0.022
0.067
0.041
0.545
0.397
-
-
Subtotal other current assets
-
-
-
-
-
4.68
0.094
Prepaid expenses & other current assets
2.173
2.574
4.708
6.139
3.423
7.054
1.953
Advertising cooperative assets, restricted
-
-
-
-
0.149
-
-
Current deferred tax asset
-
-
-
-
1.338
1.856
0.902
Total current assets
12.052
9.352
13.116
18.896
16.329
16.377
7.565
Leasehold improvements
4.184
7.475
11.726
7.099
4.527
3.317
3.483
Restaurant equipment & fixtures
6.891
12.515
15.361
10.803
6.95
4.97
4.155
Office furniture & equipment
3.017
2.978
2.535
5.575
5.312
6.645
5.596
Software
8.923
7.917
14.929
5.291
3.374
-
-
Vehicles
-
0.006
0.092
0.092
0.092
0.092
0.092
Construction in progress
0.436
1.059
0.987
6.193
1.153
1.116
0.045
Property & equipment, gross
23.451
31.95
45.63
35.053
21.408
16.14
13.371
Less: accumulated depreciation & amortization
18.585
21.886
17.114
13.792
9.288
6.48
4.718
Property & equipment, net
4.866
10.064
28.516
21.261
12.12
9.66
8.653
Operating lease right of use assets
9.801
-
-
-
-
-
-
Notes receivable, net
-
-
0.057
0.143
0.225
0.444
1.007
Goodwill
101.763
107.751
108.47
106.506
101.082
96.089
89.332
Trade name & trademarks
87.002
87.002
87.002
87.002
87.002
87.002
87.002
Definite-life intangibles, net
27.326
31.655
36.313
41.366
44.515
48.744
48.383
Assets held for sale
3.117
-
-
-
-
-
-
Deferred finance charges, net
-
-
-
-
1.485
3.934
4.438
Other assets
0.797
0.35
0.398
0.297
4.191
2.252
0.237
Total assets
246.724
246.174
273.872
275.471
266.949
264.502
246.617
Accounts payable
4.773
5.389
6.16
9.798
3.057
3.673
2.339
Accrued payable for POS software licenses
-
-
-
-
-
2.729
-
Accrued compensation & related costs
4.1
3.902
2.192
3.699
3.67
2.232
3.013
Accrued legal settlement costs
2.363
3.94
-
-
-
-
-
Gift cards & certificates payable
2.7
3.184
3.033
2.902
2.912
2.829
2.399
Deferred system development costs
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.611
Accrued interest & non-income taxes payable
0.318
0.461
0.524
0.855
0.745
0.384
0.326
Convention fund balance
1.175
0.841
1.025
0.626
0.271
0.576
0.057
Advertising & development fund
-
-
-
-
0.507
-
-
Unearned product rebates
-
-
-
0.922
0.791
-
-
Advertising cooperative liabilities
0.025
0.06
0.204
0.137
-
-
-
Lease liabilities held for sale
0.763
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other accrued & other current liabilities
0.945
0.751
0.525
0.615
0.704
0.991
0.355
Accrued expenses & other current liabilities
12.389
13.139
7.503
9.756
9.6
9.741
6.761
Current portion of lease liabilities
2.51
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertising cooperative liabilities
-
-
-
-
0.253
-
-
Current portion of unearned franchise & development fees
1.715
0.918
1.358
1.795
2.848
2.881
2.588
Current portion of long-term debt
11.4
8.4
7.879
2.8
2.8
1.67
0.88
Total current liabilities
32.787
27.846
22.9
24.149
18.558
17.965
12.568
Term loan
-
92.9
105.879
109.2
112.0
167.0
85.08
Revolving line of credit
-
-
0.8
-
-
-
4.0
Lien credit facility
-
-
-
-
-
-
36.2
Term loan under credit facility
79.508
-
-
-
-
-
-
Notes payable
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
-
Total principal amount of long-term debt
82.508
95.9
109.679
112.2
115.0
170.0
125.28
Less: unamortized debt issuance costs
-0.464
-0.506
-0.835
-1.163
-
-
-
Total long-term debt
82.044
95.394
108.844
-
-
-
-
Less current portion
11.4
8.4
7.879
2.8
2.8
1.67
0.88
Long-term debt, net of current portion
70.644
86.994
100.965
108.237
112.2
168.33
124.4
Lease liabilities, net of current portion
8.806
-
-
-
-
-
-
Unearned franchise & development fees, net of current portion
8.546
0.784
0.41
0.54
0.64
1.113
1.405
Deferred tax liability,net
23.121
24.457
44.179
42.439
42.069
41.465
39.567
Preferred & common stock subject to put options
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.57
Other long-term liabilities
3.797
3.922
3.922
2.45
1.74
1.482
1.177
Total liabilities
147.701
144.003
172.376
177.815
175.207
230.355
182.687
Series A preferred stock
-
-
-
-
-
60.156
79.856
Series B preferred stock
-
-
-
-
-
0.741
1.003
Common stock
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.169
0.169
0.019
0.019
Additional paid-in capital
121.171
120.614
119.932
118.801
117.354
1.579
0.42
Stock subscription receivable
-
-
-
-0.1
-0.1
-1.197
-0.888
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)
-22.318
-18.613
-18.606
-21.214
-26.125
-27.373
-16.482
Accumulated other comprehensive income
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.002
Total Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc. shareholders' equity
99.023
102.171
101.496
97.656
91.298
33.925
63.93
Noncontrolling interests
-
-
-
-
0.444
0.222
-
Total equity
99.023
102.171
101.496
97.656
91.742
34.147
63.93
Financial/asreported.xls
Sheet: asreported
Powered by Clearbit
Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc (NMS: FRSH)
Exchange rate used is that of the Year End reported date
As Reported Annual Balance Sheet
Report Date
12/31/2018
01/01/2018
01/02/2017
12/28/2015
12/29/2014
Currency
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Audit Status
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Not Qualified
Consolidated
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Scale
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
Cash & cash equivalents
5766.0
2174.0
2069.0
6867.0
5056.0
Customer receivables, gross
3634.0
3855.0
5367.0
4975.0
5727.0
Reserve for doubtful accounts
70.0
67.0
37.0
31.0
66.0
Accounts receivable, net
3564.0
3788.0
5330.0
4944.0
5661.0
Current portion of notes receivable
-
97.0
92.0
78.0
62.0
Inventories
549.0
719.0
917.0
868.0
640.0
Prepaid media development costs
724.0
376.0
606.0
352.0
593.0
Prepaid software & support
469.0
223.0
985.0
-
-
Prepaid occupancy related costs
136.0
-
-
-
-
Prepaid rent
-
549.0
622.0
-
-
Prepaid insurance
160.0
377.0
453.0
-
-
Prepaid rents & insurance
-
-
-
1079.0
620.0
Taxes receivable
61.0
182.0
547.0
2872.0
-
Equity issuance costs
-
-
-
-
13.0
POS software licenses for resale
368.0
364.0
-
660.0
1800.0
Assets held for sale
257.0
432.0
1406.0
605.0
-
Advertising cooperative assets, restricted
-24.0
4.0
48.0
26.0
-
Other prepaid expenses & other current assets
22.0
67.0
41.0
545.0
397.0
Prepaid expenses & other current assets
2173.0
2574.0
4708.0
6139.0
3423.0
Advertising cooperative assets, restricted
-
-
-
-
149.0
Current deferred tax asset
-
-
-
-
1338.0
Total current assets
12052.0
9352.0
13116.0
18896.0
16329.0
Leasehold improvements
4184.0
7475.0
11726.0
7099.0
4527.0
Restaurant equipment & fixtures
6891.0
12515.0
15361.0
10803.0
6950.0
Office furniture & equipment
3017.0
2978.0
2535.0
5575.0
5312.0
Software
8923.0
7917.0
14929.0
5291.0
3374.0
Vehicles
-
6.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
Construction in progress
436.0
1059.0
987.0
6193.0
1153.0
Property & equipment, gross
23451.0
31950.0
45630.0
35053.0
21408.0
Less: accumulated depreciation & amortization
18585.0
21886.0
17114.0
13792.0
9288.0
Property & equipment, net
4866.0
10064.0
28516.0
21261.0
12120.0
Operating lease right of use assets
9801.0
-
-
-
-
Notes receivable, net
-
-
57.0
143.0
225.0
Goodwill
101763.0
107751.0
108470.0
106506.0
101082.0
Trade name & trademarks
87002.0
87002.0
87002.0
87002.0
87002.0
Definite-life intangibles, net
27326.0
31655.0
36313.0
41366.0
44515.0
Assets held for sale
3117.0
-
-
-
-
Deferred finance charges, net
-
-
-
-
1485.0
Other assets
797.0
350.0
398.0
297.0
4191.0
Total assets
246724.0
246174.0
273872.0
275471.0
266949.0
Accounts payable
4773.0
5389.0
6160.0
9798.0
3057.0
Accrued compensation & related costs
4100.0
3902.0
2192.0
3699.0
3670.0
Accrued legal settlement costs
2363.0
3940.0
-
-
-
Gift cards & certificates payable
2700.0
3184.0
3033.0
2902.0
2912.0
Accrued interest & non-income taxes payable
318.0
461.0
524.0
855.0
745.0
Convention fund balance
1175.0
841.0
1025.0
626.0
271.0
Advertising & development fund
-
-
-
-
507.0
Unearned product rebates
-
-
-
922.0
791.0
Advertising cooperative liabilities
25.0
60.0
204.0
137.0
-
Lease liabilities held for sale
763.0
-
-
-
-
Other accrued & other current liabilities
945.0
751.0
525.0
615.0
704.0
Accrued expenses & other current liabilities
12389.0
13139.0
7503.0
9756.0
9600.0
Current portion of lease liabilities
2510.0
-
-
-
-
Advertising cooperative liabilities
-
-
-
-
253.0
Current portion of unearned franchise & development fees
1715.0
918.0
1358.0
1795.0
2848.0
Current portion of long-term debt
11400.0
8400.0
7879.0
2800.0
2800.0
Total current liabilities
32787.0
27846.0
22900.0
24149.0
18558.0
Term loan
-
92900.0
105879.0
109200.0
112000.0
Revolving line of credit
-
-
800.0
-
-
Term loan under credit facility
79508.0
-
-
-
-
Notes payable
3000.0
3000.0
3000.0
3000.0
3000.0
Total principal amount of long-term debt
82508.0
95900.0
109679.0
112200.0
115000.0
Less: unamortized debt issuance costs
-464.0
-506.0
-835.0
-1163.0
-
Total long-term debt
82044.0
95394.0
108844.0
-
-
Less current portion
11400.0
8400.0
7879.0
2800.0
2800.0
Long-term debt, net of current portion
70644.0
86994.0
100965.0
108237.0
112200.0
Lease liabilities, net of current portion
8806.0
-
-
-
-
Unearned franchise & development fees, net of current portion
8546.0
784.0
410.0
540.0
640.0
Deferred tax liability,net
23121.0
24457.0
44179.0
42439.0
42069.0
Other long-term liabilities
3797.0
3922.0
3922.0
2450.0
1740.0
Total liabilities
147701.0
144003.0
172376.0
177815.0
175207.0
Common stock
170.0
170.0
170.0
169.0
169.0
Additional paid-in capital
121171.0
120614.0
119932.0
118801.0
117354.0
Stock subscription receivable
-
-
-
-100.0
-100.0
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)
-22318.0
-18613.0
-18606.0
-21214.0
-26125.0
Total Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc. shareholders' equity
99023.0
102171.0
101496.0
97656.0
91298.0
Noncontrolling interests
-
-
-
-
444.0
Total equity
99023.0
102171.0
101496.0
97656.0
91742.0
Financial/A bigger bill is coming due for airlines.docxA bigger
bill is coming due for airlines
By Jon Sindreu, Wall Street Journal, 27 December 2018
Costs are a key concern for airline investors, who have fretted
about pilot shortages, union disputes and oil prices over the past
year. But there is a less obvious bill that they will likely face in
2019: higher airport fees.
Over the past decade, air travel has grown much faster than the
economy. Yet U.S. airports' spending on infrastructure fell 24%
between 2013 and 2017 compared with the previous five-year
period, according to North America's Airports Council
International.
Now the infrastructure needs to catch up.
Airlines, as well as local governments and federal agencies, will
invest $100 billion in U.S. airports over the next five years,
ACI estimates, more than at any point on record. Hub airports --
those used to connect flights -- will spend the most, because
that is where U.S. airlines have focused their expansion.
As a result, the fee paid by U.S. airlines to airports for each
passenger will increase 19% between 2017 and 2020, a report
by brokerage Cowen predicts.
Admittedly, airport costs add up to just 2% of U.S. airlines'
total costs, on average. Fuel and labor are the key expenses,
contributing more than 30% each.
Yet some airlines are more exposed: Airport fees account for
4% of costs for ultralow-cost carriers such as Allegiant Travel
and Spirit Airlines, which also find it harder to pass extra costs
onto consumers. Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue
Airways are expanding in airports that are undergoing large
renovations and are about to become more expensive.
There also is the risk that the final bill ends up larger than
investors anticipate, even for big legacy carriers like Delta Air
Lines, United Continental and American Airlines. Of the $100
billion of planned infrastructure spending, only 63% will be
used to expand capacity, the ACI believes. That means higher
investment may be needed for many years to come.
A lot of resources will go to refurbishing old terminals, which
have dragged down consumer satisfaction in many of the U.S.'s
major hubs.
A clear example is New York's LaGuardia Airport. It often
ranks near the bottom of airport rankings, including a recent
Wall Street Journal one.
Works to refurbish LaGuardia started in 2016 with an $8 billion
budget. Costs per passenger for airlines could increase 37% by
the time the works are done in 2023, Cowen estimates.
It may be more exciting to track the price of crude every day,
but airline investors should also take a close look at the number
of cranes around airports.
© Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Copy created under fair use guidelines for education.
Financial/How much of your $355 ticket is profit for
airlines.docxHow much of your $355 ticket is profit for
airlines?Airlines are healthier than ever financially—and that’s
why they add more fees and more seats
By Scott McCartney, Wall Street Journal, 14 February 2018
Illustration: Serge Bloch
Next time you board a flight, just imagine you’re putting a $20
bill in the airline’s tip jar.
Profit per passenger at the seven largest U.S. airlines averaged
$19.65 over the past four years—record-setting profitable years
for airlines. In 2017, it stood at $17.75, based on airline
earnings reports.
In truth, airlines now cover their costs with tickets and get their
profits from baggage fees, seat fees, reservation-change fees
and just about all the other nickel-and-diming that aggravates
customers. You might also call those extra 12 to 15 passengers
now crammed onto each flight “Andrew Jackson” for the profit
they bring.
It takes a lot to earn a little moving people.
U.S. airlines experienced plenty of years of steep losses, when
creditors were subsidizing tickets for travelers. But now, profit
margins—about 9% in 2017—are healthy. Keeping $20 from
every passenger is about twice the profit airlines in the rest of
the world get, according to data from the International Air
Transport Association.
“It’s certainly high by airline historic standards. But it’s not
high if you look across other companies in the U.S. economy.
It’s average,” says Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist.
U.S. airlines were on pace to take in more than $4 billion in
baggage fees and $3 billion in reservation-change and
cancellation penalties in 2017, according to Transportation
Department data. (The full year hasn’t been tallied yet.) Most of
that drops straight to the bottom line. The two categories add up
to about more than half of the net profits airlines posted last
year.
Airline earnings are further boosted by other fees for things like
seats assignments, extra legroom, early boarding and pets, plus
sales of frequent flier miles to banks for credit-card rewards.
Given the $20-per-passenger haul ($40 round-trip), it’s easy to
see why airlines are so intent on cramming in more seats, even
when they know travelers hate the lack of space and complain
bitterly about shrunken bathrooms, slim seat padding and skinny
rows.
Last year, the average round-trip fare on the seven largest U.S.
carriers— American , Delta ,United, Southwest , Alaska ,
JetBlue and Spirit —was $355, based on their financial reports,
up from $351 in 2016. Getting an extra two rows of seats on a
plane can mean the difference between profit and loss.
Airline earnings are getting a boost from fees for things like
seats assignments, extra legroom and pets. Above, a woman pets
a dog at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in
Arlington, Va., on Dec. 21. PHOTO: CAROLYN KASTER/AP
Of course, some passengers are far more profitable than others.
First-class and business-class travelers are more valuable when
they pay for their tickets; less when they get a free upgrade. But
even then, road warriors are often upgraded from high-dollar,
last-minute coach tickets. Frequent travelers account for a large
percentage of airline revenue—and profit.
Low-fare passengers shoehorned into the back of the plane may
not even be covering what it costs to transport them. But they
scored a low fare because the airline was concerned it might not
fill all the seats on a particular flight, and some fare is better
than no fare.
IATA’s Mr. Pearce says airline profits last year were squeezed
by higher fuel and labor costs, and that trend is continuing in
2018. Jet fuel prices were up 26% last year compared with
2016, and prices are expected to be about 10% higher this year.
Airline fuel efficiency has improved significantly world-wide as
newer planes go into service, and older gas-guzzlers are retired.
But higher fuel prices have driven airline costs higher.
Higher fuel prices have helped drive airline costs higher.
Above, a Southwest plane is refueled at John Wayne Airport in
Santa Ana, Calif., in April 2016. PHOTO: PATRICK T.
FALLON/BLOOMBERG
At the same time, expanding competition from low-fare carriers
has kept fare increases small. Big airlines are building up in
competitive markets like Seattle, Boston and Los Angeles. Even
some cities that saw dramatic air-service cuts are getting more
flights now; Delta recently announced an expansion in
Cincinnati, for example. With more empty seats to sell, airlines
are finding it even harder to raise ticket prices.
“Fares are too low for oil prices this high,” American Airlines
Chief Executive Doug Parker said on an earnings call with
analysts last month. “Over time you’ll see it adjust.”
American spent $1.3 billion more on fuel in 2017 than the
previous year, a 22% increase. The carrier also spent nearly $1
billion more on labor, a 9% increase. The airline grew only
about 1% last year, so rising costs meant earnings were down
$757 million. Thus Mr. Parker is pushing for higher fares.
Among the big U.S. airlines, Southwest had the largest net
profit margin last year, at 16.5%. Southwest continues to defy
conventional airline wisdom. It doesn’t charge baggage fees;
instead, it believes it attracts more passengers to each flight
because many want to avoid the baggage fees charged by
competitors.
Alaska, JetBlue and Spirit all had higher profit margins than
American, Delta and United. American had the lowest profit
margin among the top carriers, at 4.5% in 2017.
Airlines’ average profit margin of 9% is about average for a
U.S. business. Last year McDonald’s posted a net profit margin
of 23%; FedEx , 5%. But that average is a leap for an industry
that had cumulative losses from 1979 to 2014 of $35 billion and
suffered six major bankruptcies in the 2000s.
© Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Copy created under fair use guidelines for education.
Financial/Selected Alaska Airlines data and competitor
comparisons.xlsx
Selected dataSelected Alaska Airlines data and competitor
comparisonsDomestic flights within US and Canada; excludes
international flights.201720162015(In
millions)AlaskaAllegiantDeltaSouthwestSpiritAlaskaAllegiantD
eltaSouthwestSpiritAlaskaAllegiantDeltaSouthwestSpiritOperati
ng
revenues¹$4,992.4$1,433.4$24,001.6$20,916.0$2,468.5$5,411.7
$1,310.2$23,012.3$20,223.4$2,134.5$5,247.1$1,221.3$21,911.5
$19,669.8$1,940.9Operating
expenses¹$4,585.7$1,236.7$20,977.2$17,443.7$2,104.9$4,057.3
$963.9$19,148.4$16,500.2$1,727.3$4,035.7$866.2$18,315.8$15
,584.8$1,479.5Passenger
miles²32,655.011,053.1116,236.0124,676.422,728.330,587.510,
259.4112,030.4121,142.119,648.928,417.58,991.6107,489.8114,
666.316,244.3Selected revenue dataReservation cancellation
fees$107.4$14.4$577.8$0.0$45.6$101.3$12.8$577.9$0.0$39.3$9
5.7$11.4$598.7$0.0$39.7Baggage
fees$136.7$191.2$907.6$45.6$459.2$126.5$176.4$881.1$43.3$
399.1$106.6$161.3$884.9$43.3$261.7Selected expense
dataSalaries &
benefits$1,401.2$403.1$8,008.5$7,646.7$488.1$1,241.2$321.1$
7,707.1$7,064.3$434.5$1,163.3$248.2$6,944.6$6,638.6$342.9A
ircraft
fuel$829.9$340.5$3,342.0$3,892.3$569.1$644.1$255.6$2,956.3
$3,611.1$411.8$762.1$277.7$3,647.6$3,588.5$418.2Food$118.
3$6.2$642.4$50.0$1.6$105.7$5.6$534.3$47.7$1.8$101.9$4.5$5
11.9$46.7$1.4Advertising$63.7$16.6$197.4$221.4$26.3$60.2$1
4.3$190.3$229.4$24.8$54.2$12.1$155.3$215.9$22.7Landing
fees$91.4$53.1$371.4$544.7$77.3$78.7$46.6$362.9$503.2$63.6
$73.5$41.7$347.1$491.3$52.3Selected ratiosRevenues per 2,000
passenger
miles$306$259$413$336$217$354$255$411$334$217$369$272
$408$343$239Operating expenses per 2,000 passenger
miles$281$224$361$280$185$265$188$342$272$176$284$193
$341$272$182¹ Excludes regional carrier revenues and
expenses² Passeger miles is the total miles travelled by all
passengers (passengers * average distance)
Financial/Airlines strike a delicate balance when selling
discount tickets.docxAirlines strike a delicate balance when
selling discount ticketsAre you seeing more discounts in
advance from Alaska Airlines? Maybe you’re seeing fewer
cheap seats in advance from United? This isn’t a fluke. Both
airlines have made changes to revenue strategies in recent
months.
By Brian Sumers, Skift, 21 March 2019
Before it was absorbed by Alaska Airlines, Virgin America
fashioned itself a business person’s airline, focusing on tech-
forward travelers willing to pay hundreds or thousands of
dollars to fly last-minute to and from San Francisco and Los
Angeles.
Because techies, consultants, producers, directors, and actors in
Silicon Valley and Hollywood could pay two to five times as
much as leisure travelers, Virgin America set aside seats for
them, hoping they would snatch them up a few days before
departure and boost profits.
When Alaska’s revenue managers examined the data, they didn’t
like what they saw. Sometimes, the high-value customers
materialized. Other times, they didn’t, and the airline may have
lost revenue it could have earned weeks earlier.
Alaska changed the strategy. On former Virgin America routes
between major cities, it reduced the number of seats held for
last-minute travelers, increasing availability for leisure
passengers who book further in advance but demand cheaper
prices.
“Our traditional comfort level was to take them further out and
so we adjusted our booking practices there,” Alaska Chief
Commercial Officer Andrew Harrison told investment analysts
in January.
Alaska is one of two U.S. airlines to tweak its booking curve
strategy recently. The other, United Airlines, went the other
way, saying it had erred by leaving too few seats for big
spenders. On core business routes, it’s probably tougher to
score a deal on United than a few years ago.
The struggles to get it right at Alaska and United highlight an
ongoing dilemma for revenue managers. Leisure travelers book
early, and often demand deals. But most airlines don’t want to
sell out at $49 or $99 fares. They must hold enough seats for the
lawyers, consultants and bankers who will pay astronomical
prices. But how many?
To decide, airlines look at basic indicators, including route, day
of the week, and time of year. They also plug information about
past bookings into sophisticated computer systems, which spit
out recommendations.
But humans guide the computers, and some management teams
have more tolerance for risking empty seats than others. Some
carriers prefer to book more revenue early, giving them
certainty, while others wait for big spenders.
“The whole concept of revenue management is that you get a
call from a customer and you have to decide whether or not to
take it,” said Tom Bacon, a consultant and former vice president
for revenue planning at Frontier Airlines. “It is a bird in the
hand issue. You can say, ‘Nope I am not going to take this
booking at $79 because I know I can get a higher fare passenger
to book if I just wait.’”
UNITED’S CASE
United’s journey to taking more last-minute revenue began after
Scott Kirby joined as president in August 2016.
Early in his tenure, Kirby told investment analysts the airline
had an antiquated revenue management system that could not
predict with enough certainty which customers would show last
minute, so it preferred to fill planes early.
And even when computer recommended United wait for better
revenue, United’s revenue managers might override it. They
feared having too many empty seats, Kirby said.
“It’s easy to sit around and say, ‘Oh my God, December load
factor is off by x points,’” Kirby said three years ago, pitching
the need for a better system to analysts. “[People say] ‘We’ve
got to go open inventory or lower the fares.’”
Over the past three years, United had updated its revenue
management platform, now called Gemini. United sets aside
more seats for its most lucrative passengers, and sells fewer
deeply discounted tickets months in advance. Also, United lets
the system work as designed — with limited human
interference.
“We continue to successfully shift our booking profile to reduce
dependence on lower-yielding tickets booked further out from
departure, while increasing our share of higher yielding
business tickets generally booked closer in,” United Chief
Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said on the airline’s
January earnings call.
Indications suggest it’s working. In 2015, United filled 83.4
percent of its seats, with an average yield of 15.72 cents per
passenger mile. In 2018, load factor was 83.6 percent, with
yield of 16.38 cents. In October, analyst Hunter Keay of Wolf
Researched credited the system with “driving high loads and
close-in yields, as designed.”
How does United know how many passengers will show?
It is a guess based on math. United may not sell all seats it
leaves open. But the airline has calculated it will make more
money attempting to sell them than if it put the seats on sale six
weeks prior to departure.
“These models try to come up with the best possible guess or
demand predictions, and it is a statistical estimation,” said
Surain Adyanthaya, senior vice president of Strategy for PROS,
a revenue management consulting firm. “It is a combination of
the mathematics along with the strategy the airline wants to
employ in that market.”
If the demand does not materialize, an airline can sell cheap
seats last minute. But since no premium airline wants a
corporate lawyer to snag a low fare three days before departure,
the carrier may decide to leave the seat empty. (Another option
to sell only basic economy fares cheaply just before departure,
since business travelers rarely buy them.)
“We don’t actually achieve 100 percent load factors despite
demand that might suggest we could get 100 percent load
factors,” Bacon said. “That’s because we have set aside those
last three seats for high fare passengers with only a 60 percent
chance that they will be filled. The probabilities and statistics
suggest that is a better result.”
DIFFERENT PHILOSOPHIES
United and Alaska probably should have disparate philosophies
about when to book more revenue, since they have different
business models.
United has hubs in five of the top six U.S metropolitan areas, as
measured by the U.S. census bureau. It carries a
disproportionate number of business travelers, many of whom
book in premium cabins. Alaska has just one major hub, in
Seattle, along with smaller ones in Los Angeles, San Francisco
and Portland, Oregon.
Alaska, which is more of a leisure airline than United, is not as
confident last-minute business travelers will show, Shane
Tackett, executive vice president of planning and strategy, told
investment analysts on the airline’s recent earnings call.
“The trade-off is if you hold out for yield or not, and then you
sort of hope that it comes and when it doesn’t, you feel bad
about your strategy and when it does you feel great,” Tackett
said. “We traditionally like to manage that just further out the
booking curve.”
For airlines, early-booking passengers have benefits, too,
Adyanthaya said. They may not help a carrier produce massive
margins, but they “give you certainty to keep the planes full and
keep the machinery running,” he said.
In addition, Adyanthaya said, some low-cost-carriers find early-
booking passengers more valuable than ever. When customers
book three months in advance, an airline has 90 days to ask
them if they want to add hotel rooms, rental cars, seat
assignments, baggage and onboard meals to their bookings. All
are high-margin items.
“That changes the equation a little bit,” Adyanthaya said. “Now
you want the planes as full as possible. There is a bigger cost to
spoilage, since you are not getting the potential ancillary
revenue from having a full flight.”
But it can be more complicated, Bacon noted. Some low-cost-
airlines call themselves “spill carriers,” thriving by selling to
customers who cannot afford a legacy airline’s last-minute fare.
These airlines may save tickets for the end of the booking
curve, waiting until full-service carriers hike their prices. If a
major airline asks for $400 one-way a next-day flight, a spill
carrier might charge $300.
Market dynamics play a role, too. Most airlines will sell more
tickets early in the booking curve on pure leisure routes, as
vacationers rarely book late.. United’s strategy on Los Angeles
to Honolulu is likely much different than from Los Angeles to
Newark.
Where an airline is based also matters, Adyanthaya said. In
some countries, airlines place an emphasis on filling every seat.
In others, that’s less important.
“You’ll see some premium international carriers that really
strive to have the best possible product and they value their
product very highly and they are willing to wait in the booking
cycle to get the demand for their flights and risk some spoilage,
whereas the North American and European carriers are more
aggressive in just filling the planes,” he said.
OTHER FACTORS
U.S. airlines have reported record or near-record profits since
2013, so carriers can afford to be choosy about which
passengers they want.
What about during rougher periods?
Other factors come into play, Bacon said. In 2008 and 2009,
when he was running Frontier’s revenue management
department, the airline was in bankruptcy. It needed cash, and
Bacon had to find it.
“We were managing cash flow every week, monitoring whether
we had enough cash to keep the airline going, so booking early
was pretty important to us,” he said. “Every change was a crisis.
We wanted to be aggressive and get the bookings in early.”
Sometimes, the situation can be out of an airline’s control.
During the financial crisis, Frontier noticed passengers weren’t
booking Christmas season flights months in advance as usual.
The airline, Bacon said, was fearful it would miss out on one of
its most lucrative periods.
That’s not what happened. Perhaps fearing the crisis would
worsen, leisure travelers waited. But as the holiday season
approach and travelers had to decide whether to skip travel or
go on the usual trip, most booked.
“The whole booking curve had changed,” Bacon said. “Our
revenue was right on track even though we hadn’t got the
bookings as well as expected.”
Kirby said he’s seen similar changes, which is why he tells his
revenue management team to trust the computer. Just as long-
term investors should not panic and sell all their stock when the
market drops for a couple of weeks, revenue managers should
not change focus because they’re not selling as many tickets as
expected, he said.
“Every single time the revenue environment has turned in my
career, there was a month or two where you were looking out
and saying, ‘Oh my God,’ and worried about it,” he said. “But
we had faith in the system and had faith in the forecast and it
turned,” Kirby said.
Financial/CourierC108006R2TFK0CA.PDF
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FinancialNetflix Example Response 1.docxResponse to Case 0 Net.docx

  • 1. Financial/Netflix Example Response 1.docxResponse to Case 0: Netflix In an attempt to become the market leader and the biggest player out there and to solidify its position as an internet provider of movies and television shows for both kids and adults, Netflix has made a lot of spectacular moves. However, one that has been questioned is its move into producing its own original shows. Original shows is expensive and Netflix has to pay for it up front. So why did Netflix go into it and was it a good idea? Netflix has plenty of subscribers and they could save a lot of money. Original content is definitely a way for Netflix to strengthen its business model. One of the first things to consider is Netflix business model. Netflix has customers, products, operations, financials, competitors, and partners in its business model. All are really important to its business model. The originals allow it to make new partners with movie producers instead of using movie studios to buy movies. This should save it 30% to 50% which would improve its financials. Its going to change its operations and its competitors won’t like it. Also, its product would increase. Netflix is an amazing company that has tons of movies and shows that customers love, and one of my favorites that is an original production is Orange Is the New Black. Because it has so many shows, Netflix has millions of subscribers and these subscribers pay $8.99 for a basic subscription, $12.99 for a standard subscription and $15.99 for a premium subscription. The prices were raised at the beginning of 2019. All of this has made it possible for Netflix to make 15,794,341 thousand dollars in 2018. Because it makes so much money, Netflix should be able to figure out how to make a positive profit instead of a negative one. Original content should help it be able to turn its fortunes around. Many of the original
  • 2. productions are really good shows. This should attract new customers and help it grow its subscriber base. Netflix is probably really good at making new movies because it knows so much about its customers. Netflix is able to track a lot of information about people, which helps it know what people like. This can help Netflix find good shows and movies to produce. This probably why its original products are so good. Also, one of the things to think about is how Netflix competes with other companies. Amazon and Hulu all have streaming services. Others will soon follow and Apple is one of them. Netflix wants to have something that the others don’t, so it is important for Netflix to make new shows that they own. It helps that Netflix has a great CEO. Reed Hastings has made a great company culture that can be tough at times but really drives good results. This is important to have in the movie industry where people may not work hard. Its culture can help it make sure movies are made correctly or so that people will like them. Also, Netflix will be able to make movies for less money due to the fact that they have a good culture. It could also help it get good actors and producers due to the fact that it is Netflix. So as I think about whether Netflix should make its own movies, I think it makes sense. Netflix could save a lot of money and build a really strong business model. I think it helps to have a great CEO. Netflix should be around a long time. Financial/asreported (1).xls Sheet: asreported Powered by Clearbit Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc (NMS: FRSH) Exchange rate used is that of the Year End reported date As Reported Annual Balance Sheet Report Date 12/31/2018
  • 3. 01/01/2018 01/02/2017 12/28/2015 12/29/2014 12/30/2013 12/31/2012 Currency USD USD USD USD USD USD USD Audit Status Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Consolidated Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Scale Millions Millions Millions Millions Millions
  • 4. Millions Millions Cash & cash equivalents 5.766 2.174 2.069 6.867 5.056 3.705 2.428 Customer receivables, gross 3.634 3.855 5.367 4.975 5.727 - - Reserve for doubtful accounts 0.07 0.067 0.037 0.031 0.066 - - Accounts receivable, net 3.564 3.788 5.33 4.944 5.661 2.43 1.947 Current portion of notes receivable -
  • 5. 0.097 0.092 0.078 0.062 0.837 - Inventories 0.549 0.719 0.917 0.868 0.64 0.495 0.335 Prepaid media development costs 0.724 0.376 0.606 0.352 0.593 0.016 0.897 Prepaid software & support 0.469 0.223 0.985 - - - - Prepaid occupancy related costs 0.136 - - - -
  • 6. - - Prepaid rent - 0.549 0.622 - - - - Prepaid insurance 0.16 0.377 0.453 - - - - Prepaid rents & insurance - - - 1.079 0.62 0.458 0.556 Taxes receivable 0.061 0.182 0.547 2.872 - - - Other prepaid expenses -
  • 7. - - - - 1.9 0.406 Subtotal prepaid expenses - - - - - 2.374 1.859 Equity issuance costs - - - - 0.013 - - POS software licenses for resale 0.368 0.364 - 0.66 1.8 4.548 - Assets held for sale 0.257 0.432 1.406 0.605 -
  • 8. - - Advertising cooperative assets, restricted -0.024 0.004 0.048 0.026 - - - Other current assets - - - - - 0.132 0.094 Other prepaid expenses & other current assets 0.022 0.067 0.041 0.545 0.397 - - Subtotal other current assets - - - - - 4.68 0.094 Prepaid expenses & other current assets 2.173
  • 9. 2.574 4.708 6.139 3.423 7.054 1.953 Advertising cooperative assets, restricted - - - - 0.149 - - Current deferred tax asset - - - - 1.338 1.856 0.902 Total current assets 12.052 9.352 13.116 18.896 16.329 16.377 7.565 Leasehold improvements 4.184 7.475 11.726 7.099 4.527
  • 10. 3.317 3.483 Restaurant equipment & fixtures 6.891 12.515 15.361 10.803 6.95 4.97 4.155 Office furniture & equipment 3.017 2.978 2.535 5.575 5.312 6.645 5.596 Software 8.923 7.917 14.929 5.291 3.374 - - Vehicles - 0.006 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 Construction in progress 0.436
  • 11. 1.059 0.987 6.193 1.153 1.116 0.045 Property & equipment, gross 23.451 31.95 45.63 35.053 21.408 16.14 13.371 Less: accumulated depreciation & amortization 18.585 21.886 17.114 13.792 9.288 6.48 4.718 Property & equipment, net 4.866 10.064 28.516 21.261 12.12 9.66 8.653 Operating lease right of use assets 9.801 - - - -
  • 12. - - Notes receivable, net - - 0.057 0.143 0.225 0.444 1.007 Goodwill 101.763 107.751 108.47 106.506 101.082 96.089 89.332 Trade name & trademarks 87.002 87.002 87.002 87.002 87.002 87.002 87.002 Definite-life intangibles, net 27.326 31.655 36.313 41.366 44.515 48.744 48.383 Assets held for sale 3.117
  • 13. - - - - - - Deferred finance charges, net - - - - 1.485 3.934 4.438 Other assets 0.797 0.35 0.398 0.297 4.191 2.252 0.237 Total assets 246.724 246.174 273.872 275.471 266.949 264.502 246.617 Accounts payable 4.773 5.389 6.16 9.798 3.057
  • 14. 3.673 2.339 Accrued payable for POS software licenses - - - - - 2.729 - Accrued compensation & related costs 4.1 3.902 2.192 3.699 3.67 2.232 3.013 Accrued legal settlement costs 2.363 3.94 - - - - - Gift cards & certificates payable 2.7 3.184 3.033 2.902 2.912 2.829 2.399 Deferred system development costs -
  • 15. - - - - - 0.611 Accrued interest & non-income taxes payable 0.318 0.461 0.524 0.855 0.745 0.384 0.326 Convention fund balance 1.175 0.841 1.025 0.626 0.271 0.576 0.057 Advertising & development fund - - - - 0.507 - - Unearned product rebates - - - 0.922 0.791
  • 16. - - Advertising cooperative liabilities 0.025 0.06 0.204 0.137 - - - Lease liabilities held for sale 0.763 - - - - - - Other accrued & other current liabilities 0.945 0.751 0.525 0.615 0.704 0.991 0.355 Accrued expenses & other current liabilities 12.389 13.139 7.503 9.756 9.6 9.741 6.761 Current portion of lease liabilities 2.51
  • 17. - - - - - - Advertising cooperative liabilities - - - - 0.253 - - Current portion of unearned franchise & development fees 1.715 0.918 1.358 1.795 2.848 2.881 2.588 Current portion of long-term debt 11.4 8.4 7.879 2.8 2.8 1.67 0.88 Total current liabilities 32.787 27.846 22.9 24.149 18.558
  • 18. 17.965 12.568 Term loan - 92.9 105.879 109.2 112.0 167.0 85.08 Revolving line of credit - - 0.8 - - - 4.0 Lien credit facility - - - - - - 36.2 Term loan under credit facility 79.508 - - - - - - Notes payable 3.0
  • 19. 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 - Total principal amount of long-term debt 82.508 95.9 109.679 112.2 115.0 170.0 125.28 Less: unamortized debt issuance costs -0.464 -0.506 -0.835 -1.163 - - - Total long-term debt 82.044 95.394 108.844 - - - - Less current portion 11.4 8.4 7.879 2.8 2.8
  • 20. 1.67 0.88 Long-term debt, net of current portion 70.644 86.994 100.965 108.237 112.2 168.33 124.4 Lease liabilities, net of current portion 8.806 - - - - - - Unearned franchise & development fees, net of current portion 8.546 0.784 0.41 0.54 0.64 1.113 1.405 Deferred tax liability,net 23.121 24.457 44.179 42.439 42.069 41.465 39.567 Preferred & common stock subject to put options -
  • 21. - - - - - 3.57 Other long-term liabilities 3.797 3.922 3.922 2.45 1.74 1.482 1.177 Total liabilities 147.701 144.003 172.376 177.815 175.207 230.355 182.687 Series A preferred stock - - - - - 60.156 79.856 Series B preferred stock - - - - -
  • 22. 0.741 1.003 Common stock 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.169 0.169 0.019 0.019 Additional paid-in capital 121.171 120.614 119.932 118.801 117.354 1.579 0.42 Stock subscription receivable - - - -0.1 -0.1 -1.197 -0.888 Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) -22.318 -18.613 -18.606 -21.214 -26.125 -27.373 -16.482 Accumulated other comprehensive income -
  • 23. - - - - - 0.002 Total Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc. shareholders' equity 99.023 102.171 101.496 97.656 91.298 33.925 63.93 Noncontrolling interests - - - - 0.444 0.222 - Total equity 99.023 102.171 101.496 97.656 91.742 34.147 63.93 Financial/asreported.xls Sheet: asreported Powered by Clearbit Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc (NMS: FRSH) Exchange rate used is that of the Year End reported date
  • 24. As Reported Annual Balance Sheet Report Date 12/31/2018 01/01/2018 01/02/2017 12/28/2015 12/29/2014 Currency USD USD USD USD USD Audit Status Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Not Qualified Consolidated Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Scale Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands Cash & cash equivalents 5766.0 2174.0 2069.0 6867.0
  • 25. 5056.0 Customer receivables, gross 3634.0 3855.0 5367.0 4975.0 5727.0 Reserve for doubtful accounts 70.0 67.0 37.0 31.0 66.0 Accounts receivable, net 3564.0 3788.0 5330.0 4944.0 5661.0 Current portion of notes receivable - 97.0 92.0 78.0 62.0 Inventories 549.0 719.0 917.0 868.0 640.0 Prepaid media development costs 724.0 376.0 606.0 352.0
  • 26. 593.0 Prepaid software & support 469.0 223.0 985.0 - - Prepaid occupancy related costs 136.0 - - - - Prepaid rent - 549.0 622.0 - - Prepaid insurance 160.0 377.0 453.0 - - Prepaid rents & insurance - - - 1079.0 620.0 Taxes receivable 61.0 182.0 547.0 2872.0
  • 27. - Equity issuance costs - - - - 13.0 POS software licenses for resale 368.0 364.0 - 660.0 1800.0 Assets held for sale 257.0 432.0 1406.0 605.0 - Advertising cooperative assets, restricted -24.0 4.0 48.0 26.0 - Other prepaid expenses & other current assets 22.0 67.0 41.0 545.0 397.0 Prepaid expenses & other current assets 2173.0 2574.0 4708.0 6139.0
  • 28. 3423.0 Advertising cooperative assets, restricted - - - - 149.0 Current deferred tax asset - - - - 1338.0 Total current assets 12052.0 9352.0 13116.0 18896.0 16329.0 Leasehold improvements 4184.0 7475.0 11726.0 7099.0 4527.0 Restaurant equipment & fixtures 6891.0 12515.0 15361.0 10803.0 6950.0 Office furniture & equipment 3017.0 2978.0 2535.0 5575.0
  • 29. 5312.0 Software 8923.0 7917.0 14929.0 5291.0 3374.0 Vehicles - 6.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 Construction in progress 436.0 1059.0 987.0 6193.0 1153.0 Property & equipment, gross 23451.0 31950.0 45630.0 35053.0 21408.0 Less: accumulated depreciation & amortization 18585.0 21886.0 17114.0 13792.0 9288.0 Property & equipment, net 4866.0 10064.0 28516.0 21261.0
  • 30. 12120.0 Operating lease right of use assets 9801.0 - - - - Notes receivable, net - - 57.0 143.0 225.0 Goodwill 101763.0 107751.0 108470.0 106506.0 101082.0 Trade name & trademarks 87002.0 87002.0 87002.0 87002.0 87002.0 Definite-life intangibles, net 27326.0 31655.0 36313.0 41366.0 44515.0 Assets held for sale 3117.0 - - -
  • 31. - Deferred finance charges, net - - - - 1485.0 Other assets 797.0 350.0 398.0 297.0 4191.0 Total assets 246724.0 246174.0 273872.0 275471.0 266949.0 Accounts payable 4773.0 5389.0 6160.0 9798.0 3057.0 Accrued compensation & related costs 4100.0 3902.0 2192.0 3699.0 3670.0 Accrued legal settlement costs 2363.0 3940.0 - -
  • 32. - Gift cards & certificates payable 2700.0 3184.0 3033.0 2902.0 2912.0 Accrued interest & non-income taxes payable 318.0 461.0 524.0 855.0 745.0 Convention fund balance 1175.0 841.0 1025.0 626.0 271.0 Advertising & development fund - - - - 507.0 Unearned product rebates - - - 922.0 791.0 Advertising cooperative liabilities 25.0 60.0 204.0 137.0
  • 33. - Lease liabilities held for sale 763.0 - - - - Other accrued & other current liabilities 945.0 751.0 525.0 615.0 704.0 Accrued expenses & other current liabilities 12389.0 13139.0 7503.0 9756.0 9600.0 Current portion of lease liabilities 2510.0 - - - - Advertising cooperative liabilities - - - - 253.0 Current portion of unearned franchise & development fees 1715.0 918.0 1358.0 1795.0
  • 34. 2848.0 Current portion of long-term debt 11400.0 8400.0 7879.0 2800.0 2800.0 Total current liabilities 32787.0 27846.0 22900.0 24149.0 18558.0 Term loan - 92900.0 105879.0 109200.0 112000.0 Revolving line of credit - - 800.0 - - Term loan under credit facility 79508.0 - - - - Notes payable 3000.0 3000.0 3000.0 3000.0
  • 35. 3000.0 Total principal amount of long-term debt 82508.0 95900.0 109679.0 112200.0 115000.0 Less: unamortized debt issuance costs -464.0 -506.0 -835.0 -1163.0 - Total long-term debt 82044.0 95394.0 108844.0 - - Less current portion 11400.0 8400.0 7879.0 2800.0 2800.0 Long-term debt, net of current portion 70644.0 86994.0 100965.0 108237.0 112200.0 Lease liabilities, net of current portion 8806.0 - - -
  • 36. - Unearned franchise & development fees, net of current portion 8546.0 784.0 410.0 540.0 640.0 Deferred tax liability,net 23121.0 24457.0 44179.0 42439.0 42069.0 Other long-term liabilities 3797.0 3922.0 3922.0 2450.0 1740.0 Total liabilities 147701.0 144003.0 172376.0 177815.0 175207.0 Common stock 170.0 170.0 170.0 169.0 169.0 Additional paid-in capital 121171.0 120614.0 119932.0 118801.0
  • 37. 117354.0 Stock subscription receivable - - - -100.0 -100.0 Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) -22318.0 -18613.0 -18606.0 -21214.0 -26125.0 Total Papa Murphy's Holdings Inc. shareholders' equity 99023.0 102171.0 101496.0 97656.0 91298.0 Noncontrolling interests - - - - 444.0 Total equity 99023.0 102171.0 101496.0 97656.0 91742.0 Financial/A bigger bill is coming due for airlines.docxA bigger bill is coming due for airlines By Jon Sindreu, Wall Street Journal, 27 December 2018 Costs are a key concern for airline investors, who have fretted
  • 38. about pilot shortages, union disputes and oil prices over the past year. But there is a less obvious bill that they will likely face in 2019: higher airport fees. Over the past decade, air travel has grown much faster than the economy. Yet U.S. airports' spending on infrastructure fell 24% between 2013 and 2017 compared with the previous five-year period, according to North America's Airports Council International. Now the infrastructure needs to catch up. Airlines, as well as local governments and federal agencies, will invest $100 billion in U.S. airports over the next five years, ACI estimates, more than at any point on record. Hub airports -- those used to connect flights -- will spend the most, because that is where U.S. airlines have focused their expansion. As a result, the fee paid by U.S. airlines to airports for each passenger will increase 19% between 2017 and 2020, a report by brokerage Cowen predicts. Admittedly, airport costs add up to just 2% of U.S. airlines' total costs, on average. Fuel and labor are the key expenses, contributing more than 30% each. Yet some airlines are more exposed: Airport fees account for 4% of costs for ultralow-cost carriers such as Allegiant Travel and Spirit Airlines, which also find it harder to pass extra costs onto consumers. Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue Airways are expanding in airports that are undergoing large renovations and are about to become more expensive. There also is the risk that the final bill ends up larger than investors anticipate, even for big legacy carriers like Delta Air Lines, United Continental and American Airlines. Of the $100 billion of planned infrastructure spending, only 63% will be used to expand capacity, the ACI believes. That means higher investment may be needed for many years to come. A lot of resources will go to refurbishing old terminals, which have dragged down consumer satisfaction in many of the U.S.'s major hubs. A clear example is New York's LaGuardia Airport. It often
  • 39. ranks near the bottom of airport rankings, including a recent Wall Street Journal one. Works to refurbish LaGuardia started in 2016 with an $8 billion budget. Costs per passenger for airlines could increase 37% by the time the works are done in 2023, Cowen estimates. It may be more exciting to track the price of crude every day, but airline investors should also take a close look at the number of cranes around airports. © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Copy created under fair use guidelines for education. Financial/How much of your $355 ticket is profit for airlines.docxHow much of your $355 ticket is profit for airlines?Airlines are healthier than ever financially—and that’s why they add more fees and more seats By Scott McCartney, Wall Street Journal, 14 February 2018 Illustration: Serge Bloch Next time you board a flight, just imagine you’re putting a $20 bill in the airline’s tip jar. Profit per passenger at the seven largest U.S. airlines averaged $19.65 over the past four years—record-setting profitable years for airlines. In 2017, it stood at $17.75, based on airline earnings reports. In truth, airlines now cover their costs with tickets and get their profits from baggage fees, seat fees, reservation-change fees and just about all the other nickel-and-diming that aggravates customers. You might also call those extra 12 to 15 passengers now crammed onto each flight “Andrew Jackson” for the profit they bring. It takes a lot to earn a little moving people. U.S. airlines experienced plenty of years of steep losses, when creditors were subsidizing tickets for travelers. But now, profit margins—about 9% in 2017—are healthy. Keeping $20 from every passenger is about twice the profit airlines in the rest of the world get, according to data from the International Air
  • 40. Transport Association. “It’s certainly high by airline historic standards. But it’s not high if you look across other companies in the U.S. economy. It’s average,” says Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist. U.S. airlines were on pace to take in more than $4 billion in baggage fees and $3 billion in reservation-change and cancellation penalties in 2017, according to Transportation Department data. (The full year hasn’t been tallied yet.) Most of that drops straight to the bottom line. The two categories add up to about more than half of the net profits airlines posted last year. Airline earnings are further boosted by other fees for things like seats assignments, extra legroom, early boarding and pets, plus sales of frequent flier miles to banks for credit-card rewards. Given the $20-per-passenger haul ($40 round-trip), it’s easy to see why airlines are so intent on cramming in more seats, even when they know travelers hate the lack of space and complain bitterly about shrunken bathrooms, slim seat padding and skinny rows. Last year, the average round-trip fare on the seven largest U.S. carriers— American , Delta ,United, Southwest , Alaska , JetBlue and Spirit —was $355, based on their financial reports, up from $351 in 2016. Getting an extra two rows of seats on a plane can mean the difference between profit and loss. Airline earnings are getting a boost from fees for things like seats assignments, extra legroom and pets. Above, a woman pets a dog at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on Dec. 21. PHOTO: CAROLYN KASTER/AP Of course, some passengers are far more profitable than others. First-class and business-class travelers are more valuable when they pay for their tickets; less when they get a free upgrade. But even then, road warriors are often upgraded from high-dollar, last-minute coach tickets. Frequent travelers account for a large percentage of airline revenue—and profit. Low-fare passengers shoehorned into the back of the plane may
  • 41. not even be covering what it costs to transport them. But they scored a low fare because the airline was concerned it might not fill all the seats on a particular flight, and some fare is better than no fare. IATA’s Mr. Pearce says airline profits last year were squeezed by higher fuel and labor costs, and that trend is continuing in 2018. Jet fuel prices were up 26% last year compared with 2016, and prices are expected to be about 10% higher this year. Airline fuel efficiency has improved significantly world-wide as newer planes go into service, and older gas-guzzlers are retired. But higher fuel prices have driven airline costs higher. Higher fuel prices have helped drive airline costs higher. Above, a Southwest plane is refueled at John Wayne Airport in Santa Ana, Calif., in April 2016. PHOTO: PATRICK T. FALLON/BLOOMBERG At the same time, expanding competition from low-fare carriers has kept fare increases small. Big airlines are building up in competitive markets like Seattle, Boston and Los Angeles. Even some cities that saw dramatic air-service cuts are getting more flights now; Delta recently announced an expansion in Cincinnati, for example. With more empty seats to sell, airlines are finding it even harder to raise ticket prices. “Fares are too low for oil prices this high,” American Airlines Chief Executive Doug Parker said on an earnings call with analysts last month. “Over time you’ll see it adjust.” American spent $1.3 billion more on fuel in 2017 than the previous year, a 22% increase. The carrier also spent nearly $1 billion more on labor, a 9% increase. The airline grew only about 1% last year, so rising costs meant earnings were down $757 million. Thus Mr. Parker is pushing for higher fares. Among the big U.S. airlines, Southwest had the largest net profit margin last year, at 16.5%. Southwest continues to defy conventional airline wisdom. It doesn’t charge baggage fees; instead, it believes it attracts more passengers to each flight because many want to avoid the baggage fees charged by competitors.
  • 42. Alaska, JetBlue and Spirit all had higher profit margins than American, Delta and United. American had the lowest profit margin among the top carriers, at 4.5% in 2017. Airlines’ average profit margin of 9% is about average for a U.S. business. Last year McDonald’s posted a net profit margin of 23%; FedEx , 5%. But that average is a leap for an industry that had cumulative losses from 1979 to 2014 of $35 billion and suffered six major bankruptcies in the 2000s. © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Copy created under fair use guidelines for education. Financial/Selected Alaska Airlines data and competitor comparisons.xlsx Selected dataSelected Alaska Airlines data and competitor comparisonsDomestic flights within US and Canada; excludes international flights.201720162015(In millions)AlaskaAllegiantDeltaSouthwestSpiritAlaskaAllegiantD eltaSouthwestSpiritAlaskaAllegiantDeltaSouthwestSpiritOperati ng revenues¹$4,992.4$1,433.4$24,001.6$20,916.0$2,468.5$5,411.7 $1,310.2$23,012.3$20,223.4$2,134.5$5,247.1$1,221.3$21,911.5 $19,669.8$1,940.9Operating expenses¹$4,585.7$1,236.7$20,977.2$17,443.7$2,104.9$4,057.3 $963.9$19,148.4$16,500.2$1,727.3$4,035.7$866.2$18,315.8$15 ,584.8$1,479.5Passenger miles²32,655.011,053.1116,236.0124,676.422,728.330,587.510, 259.4112,030.4121,142.119,648.928,417.58,991.6107,489.8114, 666.316,244.3Selected revenue dataReservation cancellation fees$107.4$14.4$577.8$0.0$45.6$101.3$12.8$577.9$0.0$39.3$9 5.7$11.4$598.7$0.0$39.7Baggage fees$136.7$191.2$907.6$45.6$459.2$126.5$176.4$881.1$43.3$ 399.1$106.6$161.3$884.9$43.3$261.7Selected expense dataSalaries & benefits$1,401.2$403.1$8,008.5$7,646.7$488.1$1,241.2$321.1$ 7,707.1$7,064.3$434.5$1,163.3$248.2$6,944.6$6,638.6$342.9A
  • 43. ircraft fuel$829.9$340.5$3,342.0$3,892.3$569.1$644.1$255.6$2,956.3 $3,611.1$411.8$762.1$277.7$3,647.6$3,588.5$418.2Food$118. 3$6.2$642.4$50.0$1.6$105.7$5.6$534.3$47.7$1.8$101.9$4.5$5 11.9$46.7$1.4Advertising$63.7$16.6$197.4$221.4$26.3$60.2$1 4.3$190.3$229.4$24.8$54.2$12.1$155.3$215.9$22.7Landing fees$91.4$53.1$371.4$544.7$77.3$78.7$46.6$362.9$503.2$63.6 $73.5$41.7$347.1$491.3$52.3Selected ratiosRevenues per 2,000 passenger miles$306$259$413$336$217$354$255$411$334$217$369$272 $408$343$239Operating expenses per 2,000 passenger miles$281$224$361$280$185$265$188$342$272$176$284$193 $341$272$182¹ Excludes regional carrier revenues and expenses² Passeger miles is the total miles travelled by all passengers (passengers * average distance) Financial/Airlines strike a delicate balance when selling discount tickets.docxAirlines strike a delicate balance when selling discount ticketsAre you seeing more discounts in advance from Alaska Airlines? Maybe you’re seeing fewer cheap seats in advance from United? This isn’t a fluke. Both airlines have made changes to revenue strategies in recent months. By Brian Sumers, Skift, 21 March 2019 Before it was absorbed by Alaska Airlines, Virgin America fashioned itself a business person’s airline, focusing on tech- forward travelers willing to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars to fly last-minute to and from San Francisco and Los Angeles. Because techies, consultants, producers, directors, and actors in Silicon Valley and Hollywood could pay two to five times as much as leisure travelers, Virgin America set aside seats for them, hoping they would snatch them up a few days before departure and boost profits. When Alaska’s revenue managers examined the data, they didn’t like what they saw. Sometimes, the high-value customers
  • 44. materialized. Other times, they didn’t, and the airline may have lost revenue it could have earned weeks earlier. Alaska changed the strategy. On former Virgin America routes between major cities, it reduced the number of seats held for last-minute travelers, increasing availability for leisure passengers who book further in advance but demand cheaper prices. “Our traditional comfort level was to take them further out and so we adjusted our booking practices there,” Alaska Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Harrison told investment analysts in January. Alaska is one of two U.S. airlines to tweak its booking curve strategy recently. The other, United Airlines, went the other way, saying it had erred by leaving too few seats for big spenders. On core business routes, it’s probably tougher to score a deal on United than a few years ago. The struggles to get it right at Alaska and United highlight an ongoing dilemma for revenue managers. Leisure travelers book early, and often demand deals. But most airlines don’t want to sell out at $49 or $99 fares. They must hold enough seats for the lawyers, consultants and bankers who will pay astronomical prices. But how many? To decide, airlines look at basic indicators, including route, day of the week, and time of year. They also plug information about past bookings into sophisticated computer systems, which spit out recommendations. But humans guide the computers, and some management teams have more tolerance for risking empty seats than others. Some carriers prefer to book more revenue early, giving them certainty, while others wait for big spenders. “The whole concept of revenue management is that you get a call from a customer and you have to decide whether or not to take it,” said Tom Bacon, a consultant and former vice president for revenue planning at Frontier Airlines. “It is a bird in the hand issue. You can say, ‘Nope I am not going to take this booking at $79 because I know I can get a higher fare passenger
  • 45. to book if I just wait.’” UNITED’S CASE United’s journey to taking more last-minute revenue began after Scott Kirby joined as president in August 2016. Early in his tenure, Kirby told investment analysts the airline had an antiquated revenue management system that could not predict with enough certainty which customers would show last minute, so it preferred to fill planes early. And even when computer recommended United wait for better revenue, United’s revenue managers might override it. They feared having too many empty seats, Kirby said. “It’s easy to sit around and say, ‘Oh my God, December load factor is off by x points,’” Kirby said three years ago, pitching the need for a better system to analysts. “[People say] ‘We’ve got to go open inventory or lower the fares.’” Over the past three years, United had updated its revenue management platform, now called Gemini. United sets aside more seats for its most lucrative passengers, and sells fewer deeply discounted tickets months in advance. Also, United lets the system work as designed — with limited human interference. “We continue to successfully shift our booking profile to reduce dependence on lower-yielding tickets booked further out from departure, while increasing our share of higher yielding business tickets generally booked closer in,” United Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said on the airline’s January earnings call. Indications suggest it’s working. In 2015, United filled 83.4 percent of its seats, with an average yield of 15.72 cents per passenger mile. In 2018, load factor was 83.6 percent, with yield of 16.38 cents. In October, analyst Hunter Keay of Wolf Researched credited the system with “driving high loads and close-in yields, as designed.” How does United know how many passengers will show? It is a guess based on math. United may not sell all seats it
  • 46. leaves open. But the airline has calculated it will make more money attempting to sell them than if it put the seats on sale six weeks prior to departure. “These models try to come up with the best possible guess or demand predictions, and it is a statistical estimation,” said Surain Adyanthaya, senior vice president of Strategy for PROS, a revenue management consulting firm. “It is a combination of the mathematics along with the strategy the airline wants to employ in that market.” If the demand does not materialize, an airline can sell cheap seats last minute. But since no premium airline wants a corporate lawyer to snag a low fare three days before departure, the carrier may decide to leave the seat empty. (Another option to sell only basic economy fares cheaply just before departure, since business travelers rarely buy them.) “We don’t actually achieve 100 percent load factors despite demand that might suggest we could get 100 percent load factors,” Bacon said. “That’s because we have set aside those last three seats for high fare passengers with only a 60 percent chance that they will be filled. The probabilities and statistics suggest that is a better result.” DIFFERENT PHILOSOPHIES United and Alaska probably should have disparate philosophies about when to book more revenue, since they have different business models. United has hubs in five of the top six U.S metropolitan areas, as measured by the U.S. census bureau. It carries a disproportionate number of business travelers, many of whom book in premium cabins. Alaska has just one major hub, in Seattle, along with smaller ones in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland, Oregon. Alaska, which is more of a leisure airline than United, is not as confident last-minute business travelers will show, Shane Tackett, executive vice president of planning and strategy, told investment analysts on the airline’s recent earnings call.
  • 47. “The trade-off is if you hold out for yield or not, and then you sort of hope that it comes and when it doesn’t, you feel bad about your strategy and when it does you feel great,” Tackett said. “We traditionally like to manage that just further out the booking curve.” For airlines, early-booking passengers have benefits, too, Adyanthaya said. They may not help a carrier produce massive margins, but they “give you certainty to keep the planes full and keep the machinery running,” he said. In addition, Adyanthaya said, some low-cost-carriers find early- booking passengers more valuable than ever. When customers book three months in advance, an airline has 90 days to ask them if they want to add hotel rooms, rental cars, seat assignments, baggage and onboard meals to their bookings. All are high-margin items. “That changes the equation a little bit,” Adyanthaya said. “Now you want the planes as full as possible. There is a bigger cost to spoilage, since you are not getting the potential ancillary revenue from having a full flight.” But it can be more complicated, Bacon noted. Some low-cost- airlines call themselves “spill carriers,” thriving by selling to customers who cannot afford a legacy airline’s last-minute fare. These airlines may save tickets for the end of the booking curve, waiting until full-service carriers hike their prices. If a major airline asks for $400 one-way a next-day flight, a spill carrier might charge $300. Market dynamics play a role, too. Most airlines will sell more tickets early in the booking curve on pure leisure routes, as vacationers rarely book late.. United’s strategy on Los Angeles to Honolulu is likely much different than from Los Angeles to Newark. Where an airline is based also matters, Adyanthaya said. In some countries, airlines place an emphasis on filling every seat. In others, that’s less important. “You’ll see some premium international carriers that really strive to have the best possible product and they value their
  • 48. product very highly and they are willing to wait in the booking cycle to get the demand for their flights and risk some spoilage, whereas the North American and European carriers are more aggressive in just filling the planes,” he said. OTHER FACTORS U.S. airlines have reported record or near-record profits since 2013, so carriers can afford to be choosy about which passengers they want. What about during rougher periods? Other factors come into play, Bacon said. In 2008 and 2009, when he was running Frontier’s revenue management department, the airline was in bankruptcy. It needed cash, and Bacon had to find it. “We were managing cash flow every week, monitoring whether we had enough cash to keep the airline going, so booking early was pretty important to us,” he said. “Every change was a crisis. We wanted to be aggressive and get the bookings in early.” Sometimes, the situation can be out of an airline’s control. During the financial crisis, Frontier noticed passengers weren’t booking Christmas season flights months in advance as usual. The airline, Bacon said, was fearful it would miss out on one of its most lucrative periods. That’s not what happened. Perhaps fearing the crisis would worsen, leisure travelers waited. But as the holiday season approach and travelers had to decide whether to skip travel or go on the usual trip, most booked. “The whole booking curve had changed,” Bacon said. “Our revenue was right on track even though we hadn’t got the bookings as well as expected.” Kirby said he’s seen similar changes, which is why he tells his revenue management team to trust the computer. Just as long- term investors should not panic and sell all their stock when the market drops for a couple of weeks, revenue managers should not change focus because they’re not selling as many tickets as expected, he said.
  • 49. “Every single time the revenue environment has turned in my career, there was a month or two where you were looking out and saying, ‘Oh my God,’ and worried about it,” he said. “But we had faith in the system and had faith in the forecast and it turned,” Kirby said. Financial/CourierC108006R2TFK0CA.PDF 5RXQG��� 'HF����� ���� &������ $QGUHZV <XH�3HQJ 7UHQW�6DQJXLQHW =KHQ�<DQJ &KLK�<X %DOGZLQ 9LQQD�'HOXPHQ 6WHIIL�/DX $QGUHD�0HOHJULWR &KULVWRSKHU�9X &KHVWHU 'LJE $OLQD�%LOF .HQWR�%XUNH -HII�+XQK 'UHZ�7KRPDQ
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