Valor Para Los Usuarios En 2020 B

Life in 2020

by Eduardo Griffa
Head of Ericsson Consulting
Market Unit South America

http://www.linkedin.com/in/eduardogriffa

What will create value for people in 2020?

© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 2 2020 Overview Presentation

Thinking through stories, and talking in depth
about their implications, brings each person’s
unspoken assumptions about the future to the
surface.
Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicle I
know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about
the world, and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our
creativity and resourcefulness.

[Peter Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View”, 1991]


Communicating Worlds 2020
Ericsson scenario project set-up

Scanning Scenarios

Likely truths

Critical uncertainities

Disruptive events


12 years’ perspective

1997: Kyoto 9/11 2001 2007: IPCC, Al Gore
protocol adopted WTC twin towers Nobel Peace Prize

1996 2008 2020

1996: 136.2 M
2004: 1 B 3.7 Billion
mobile phone
GSM users Mobile
users globally
2001: subscriptions
Wikipedia
1998: First launched
digital terrestrial TV
launched in UK
2006: The NL is first country to
1998: Google switch to Digital Over-the-Air
founded (terrestrial) broadcasting


The world in 2020 – likely truths
Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform
user patterns
patterns
User

ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for enterprises to secure
sustainable competitiveness
One billion new middle-class consumers will enter the global
marketplace, mainly in Asia
Operator consolidation, cross-industry collaboration and low-cost
dynamics

innovation will redefine the industry
Industry

Most user services will be delivered independently of the network
provider
Everything that benefits from a wireless network connection will
have one
China and India will emerge as economic powers with fundamental
Business

global impact
context

Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape political
agendas and ignite conflicts
Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency on safety and
security solutions


Communicating Worlds 2020

User

es? user
patterns De

ser d wit ity
Reg ainabi
sus
v n?

v
ic

h
ti o

bin ecti
e

ulat
ev olu

t
Industry oev
User preferences?

com Conn

vic
rk luti

e ion y?
o on
dynamics e tw

lit
N ?

for
Business
context

Likely Truths ⇒ Critical Uncertainties ⇒ Scenarios

Critical uncertainties

Users want
Users want choice User preferences? convenience

Network
Network evolution? Network dependent
independent services
services

All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices

Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated
and user service combined with user network/service
providers services? providers

Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound
action sustainability? regulatory action

Uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity. (Ilya Prigogine)


2020 scenarios at a glance

Users want
Users want choice User preferences? convenience

Network
Network evolution? Network dependent
independent services
services

All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices

Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated
and user service combined with user network/service
providers services? providers

Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound
action sustainability? regulatory action


Brands and Pipes
Scenario I

I want the best
quality and I have
Few large operators cost- chosen the brands
effectively providing MyStore that suit me and my
MyMusic lifestyle.
network connectivity Connectivity is no
MyApps longer an issue.

Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle
services independently of network providers

User Choice
Scenario II

I choose what’s
best for me,
and I’m not
afraid to change
service provider!

Small, innovative players
offering abundance of services

Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of services
using an intelligent “network operating system”

I am choosing the
environmentally friendly

Green Shift alternatives,
and I am highly
rewarded for my choices.
Scenario III Our lives are different
now, and more restricted,
but we can look forward
to a brighter tomorrow.
E-government
M2M
Government regulation
for sustainable evolution
•Measurements
E-health Telepresence
•Incentives
•Taxation
•Resource pooling E-work
Logistics

Profound political actions on sustainability
change user patterns and demands

I don’t want to choose from
All Inclusive different providers and
services, when everything can
be taken care of by my all-
Scenario IV inclusive provider. Life is
simple and convenient.
Communications

Devices

Connectivity

Content

Enterprises adapt all-inclusive offerings for basic communicatiosn need and certain business-critical applications
Rely on independent system integrators and dedicated online players for complementing applications

Large and vertically integrated players emerge
and provide everything from connectivity to content

Enter Life in 2020

http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/2020-081217/


2020 scenarios at a glance
Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle
services independently of network providers.

Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of
services using an intelligent “network operating system”.

Profound political actions on sustainability will change
user patterns and demands of people and enterprises.

Large and vertically integrated players will emerge and
provide everything from connectivity to content.


The future is uncertain... but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity.
Ilya Prigogine (1917 - )

The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be.
Paul Valery (1871 - 1945)

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)

Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same
weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 AD - 180 AD), Meditations, 200 A.D.

Change is the process by which the future invades our lives.
Alvin Toffler

It's the place where my prediction from the sixties finally came true: "In the future
everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes." I'm bored with that line. I never use it
anymore. My new line is, "In fifteen minutes everybody will be famous."
Andy Warhol (1928 - 1987), Andy Warhol's Exposures (1979) "Studio 54“
http://www.quotationspage.com

Future of terminals ?, please see Pattie Maes demos the Sixth Sense
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html


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