Then, now and the future direction of mobile


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The presentation by Martin Coul, Founder of The Coul Room, a boutique and independent advisory firm based in Lausanne, Switzerland specializing in Mobile solutions development. It was presented at the Ciklum Mobile Seminar in Munich on March 22, 2012

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Then, now and the future direction of mobile

  1. 1. Then, now and the future direction of mobile Ciklum Seminar, Munich, 22/03/12
  2. 2. About:The Coul Room is a boutique, independent advisory firm based inLausanne, Switzerland specializing in all things Mobile. Theyrecently presented the highly acclaimed Swiss Mobile Basecamp -­­an iniHaHve to boost mobile startups in Switzerland and helpthem succeed beyond the Swiss borders. The Coul Room sharesits mobile industry insights, internaHonal contacts and inHmatekn o wl ed ge o f th e wi rel es s val u e ch ai n wi th as p i ri n gentrepreneurs, startups, corporates and investors both inside Martin Coul,and beyond the Swiss borders. Founder
  3. 3. ~14 years at the epicentre of mobile:
  4. 4. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…
  5. 5. Technology Forecasting: ‘People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underes.mate what can be done in five to ten years’ JCR Licklider 1965JCR Licklider: 1915-­­1990
  6. 6. 24 th June 1998: + + + =
  7. 7. + (1997) Psion Series 5 (1996) Nokia 9000 Communicator =(2000) R380: World’s (2000) N9210: Color, First Smartphone. Fax, Email, Web, Office (2002) 7650: First (2005) N95: GPS, 5mp Nokia with built in Carl Zeiss lens, Wi-­­Fi, camera. TV Out, Music Player.
  8. 8. 11 th February 2012:
  9. 9. Ericsson R380 Danger Sidekick Nokia 9000 Siemens SX1 iMate SPLCommunicator Fujitsu F-­­022 SEMC P800 Mitsubishi D705i Motorola U9 Nokia N9 Palm Pre Palm V Source: Vision Mobile, The Coul Room Analysis
  10. 10. Bill & Andy’s Excellent Adventure II “We have a dream of improving the lives of many millions of people by means of small, intimate life support systems that people carry with them everywhere. These systems will help people to organize their lives, to communicate with other people, and to access information of all kinds. They will be simple to use, and come in a wide range of models to fit every budget, need, and taste. They will change the way people live and communicate.”Source: hhp://
  11. 11. 1994 & The UI of tomorrow?
  12. 12. Take a closer look!: 1994: Magic Cap UI 2008: HTC Dream UISource: San Francisco Mobile
  13. 13. Steve Job’s vision: “The problem is, in hardware you cant build a computer thats twice as good as anyone elses anymore…but you can do it in software.” Steve Jobs: 1955-­­2011Source: Rolling Stone Magazine 1994
  14. 14. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…
  15. 15. The plaoorm conundrum!?:
  16. 16. Apps drive the platforms corebusiness – not content profits:
  17. 17. App Downloads 01.02 -­ 01.02.2012 (Germany): German Downloads in February 2012 (M) 72m 140Android 120 100 41m 80 German Downloads in February 2012 (M) 60iPhone 40 20 0 8.3m Android iPhone iPad WP7 Total iPad •  Est. 49m downloads a day via Apple’s App Store •  <4 years to reach 25 billion downloads •  8.5 years to reach 16 billion iTunes song downloads 2.2m Source: Xyologic WP7
  18. 18. Smartphone shipments as % of total unit shipments (2008-­­2011):1.63bn mobile phones sold worldwide during 2011. Out of these 483m were smartphones.Nokia are selling 12x S40 phones every second and have an installed base of 1.5bn devicesThe smartphone market grew by 43% in 2011,from nearly 300 million shipments in 2010 toover 480 million in 2011.Source: Vision Mobile, Nokia
  19. 19. Mobile is the wild west: But so is the new sheriff!
  20. 20. Apps tap consumer $$$ beyond telecoms :Source: Vision Mobile & US consumer expenditure survey 2009
  21. 21. Mobile is the single biggest global distribution plaoorm:Source: San Francisco Mobile & Vision Mobile
  22. 22. Then, now and the future direction of mobile…
  23. 23. Innovation & Emerging Markets:
  24. 24. Windows phone will establish itself: •  3rd Ecosystem •  Emerging markets & Nokia Life tools •  Metro & Windows 8 •  Strong IP Poroolio •  Nokia’s retail channel •  RIM won’t surviveDisclaimer: The Coul Room holds no stock/investments in Nokia or MSFT
  25. 25. Connected Life in 2020: Total connected devices will reach 24 billion worldwide!Source: GSMA
  26. 26. Remember me?: ‘People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five to ten years’ JCR Licklider 1965JCR Licklider: 1915-­­1990
  27. 27. Thanks for listening! |@thecoulroom