This document discusses strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. It presents four approaches: driving less through gas taxes or mileage taxes; improving fuel efficiency of vehicles through standards; making vehicles cleaner through emissions standards; and using cleaner fuels through policies like renewable fuel standards. It notes these approaches are difficult to directly measure and require models and averages. The document then discusses factors around accurately scoring GHG emissions, including system boundaries and models. It introduces a policy linkages model to analyze how policies could influence decisions and ultimately outcomes related to the economy, energy use, emissions and jobs.

1. Transportation fuels
and GHG emissions reduction
Steven J. Taff
Department of Applied Economics
University of Minnesota

2. Goal: Reduce GHG from transportation
• Drive less – tax on gas, miles, or GHG (miles)
• Better cars – CAFE (miles/gallon)
• Cleaner cars – GreenCar (GHG/mile)
• Cleaner fuel – RFS, LCFS (GHG/gallon)
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3. Scoring and Standards
• None can be easily or directly measureed
• All need models and averaging and broad
standards
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4. Scoring
• What included (field, plant, car, iLUC)
• Where measured (local…world)
• What number (LCA or direct)
• What model (GREET, BESS, MnGREET?)
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5. population prosperity policy
Indirect
land use
CROP
change?
• PRICE
CROP
DEMAND
Increase Change land
management use
intensity
Environment
CROP
weather
change
SUPPLY
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6. Scoring
matters
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7. Policy linkages
• Independent / Summable
• Complementary / Synergistic
• Conflicting / Redundant
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8. MGA policy linkages model
• This is a “what‐if” model, not a “what‐should‐
we‐do” model
• Emphasis on how policies might change
activities
• Focus on links among policy actions, not on
implication of stand‐alone actions
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9. How policies influence outcomes
economy
policy DECISIONS outcomes
parameters
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10. • People/Firms do the best they can with what
they’ve got
• People/Firms choose lowest‐cost activity that is
financially, legally, and technically feasible.
• Government sets the stage so that people/firms,
in doing what’s best for themselves, do what’s
best for Society.
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11. Policies
Electricity
Energy,
Emissions, and
Transportation
Expenditures—
and Jobs
Building
efficiency
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12. GHG accounting
Sequestration
Electricity reduction
Transportation
Total GHG
emissions
Buildings
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13. Life cycle accounting
Direct
(combustion)
Production
facility
Supplies and Total
Hauling
manufacturing
Farm/Wellfield Indirect landuse
change
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14. Policies
• Convince people to do something good
• Require people to do something good
• Pay people to do something good
• Make people pay to do something bad
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15. Today: When Policies Collide
• Stricter CAFE standard
• GHG tax
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16. CAFE Standard
CAFE
fuel use
standard
by car
(MPG)
(MPG)
GHG
from
vehicles
Cost to
Annual
meet CAFE
average fuel
($/Vehicle)
cost per car Fuel use
(BTU)
Other Vehicle
Costs Car
choice
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17. GHG tax
Energy
intensity
(BTU/ton)
GHG Tax
Carbon
($/ton GHG)
intensity
(GHG/BTU)
Total cost
($/BTU)
Technical
costs
($/BTU)
GHG
Energy
emissions
portfolio
Demand (BTU)
for energy
(BTU)
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18. • Let’s go to the MGA model
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19. Steven J. Taff
Department of Applied Economics
University of Minnesota
612.625.3103
sjtaff@umn.edu
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