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Transportation Fuels & Green House Gas Emissions Reduction


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Transportation Fuels & Green House Gas Emissions Reduction

  1. 1. Transportation fuels  and GHG emissions reduction Steven J. Taff Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota
  2. 2. Goal: Reduce GHG from transportation • Drive less – tax on gas, miles, or GHG (miles) • Better cars – CAFE  (miles/gallon) • Cleaner cars – GreenCar (GHG/mile) • Cleaner fuel – RFS, LCFS (GHG/gallon) 2
  3. 3. Scoring and Standards • None can be easily or directly measureed • All need models and averaging and broad  standards 3
  4. 4. Scoring  • What included (field, plant, car, iLUC) • Where measured (local…world) • What number (LCA or direct) • What model (GREET, BESS, MnGREET?) 4
  5. 5. population prosperity policy Indirect  land use  CROP  change? • PRICE CROP  DEMAND Increase  Change land  management   use intensity Environment  CROP  weather change SUPPLY 5
  6. 6. Scoring  matters 6
  7. 7. Policy linkages • Independent / Summable • Complementary / Synergistic • Conflicting / Redundant 7
  8. 8. MGA policy linkages model • This is a “what‐if” model, not a “what‐should‐ we‐do” model • Emphasis on how policies might change  activities • Focus on links among policy actions, not on  implication of stand‐alone actions 8
  9. 9. How policies influence outcomes economy policy DECISIONS outcomes parameters 9
  10. 10. • People/Firms do the best they can with what  they’ve got • People/Firms choose lowest‐cost activity that is  financially, legally, and technically feasible. • Government sets the stage so that people/firms,  in doing what’s best for themselves, do what’s  best for Society. 10
  11. 11. Policies  Electricity Energy, Emissions, and  Transportation Expenditures— and Jobs Building  efficiency   11
  12. 12. GHG accounting Sequestration  Electricity reduction Transportation Total GHG  emissions Buildings 12
  13. 13. Life cycle accounting Direct  (combustion) Production  facility Supplies and  Total Hauling manufacturing Farm/Wellfield Indirect landuse change 13
  14. 14. Policies • Convince people to do something good • Require people to do something good • Pay people to do something good • Make people pay to do something bad 14
  15. 15. Today: When Policies Collide  • Stricter CAFE standard • GHG tax 15
  16. 16. CAFE Standard CAFE  fuel use  standard  by car  (MPG) (MPG) GHG  from  vehicles Cost to  Annual  meet CAFE  average fuel  ($/Vehicle) cost per car Fuel use  (BTU) Other Vehicle  Costs Car  choice 16
  17. 17. GHG tax Energy  intensity  (BTU/ton) GHG Tax Carbon  ($/ton GHG) intensity  (GHG/BTU) Total cost  ($/BTU) Technical  costs  ($/BTU) GHG  Energy  emissions portfolio  Demand  (BTU) for energy  (BTU) 17
  18. 18. • Let’s go to the MGA model 18
  19. 19. Steven J. Taff Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota 612.625.3103 19
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