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FUTURE CREATION
BY-DESIGN
THINKING
YURIKO SAWATANI
2017 FUTURE CREATION BY-DESIGN THINKING: UNIVERSITY
2030
First
half
9:00-9:20 Opening
9:20-9:50 Perspectives
9:50-10:20 Opportunity
10:20-10:30 Break
Latter
half
10:30-10:45 Skit
10:45-11:05 Vision & Ecosystem
11:05-11:35 High-level Business case
11:35-12:00 Final presentation & Nest step
2
70% GLOBAL ROLE, 75% LEADER’S ROLE
INTRODUCTION
▸2015 – Present Professor
Tokyo University of
Technology, Graduate School
of Entrepreneurship, Tokyo,
Japan
▸2013 – 2015 Professor
Waseda University, Center for
Research Strategy, Tokyo,
Japan
▸-2012 Senior Manager at IBM
Japan, Tokyo Research,
Service Research
▸ Fellow Japan Science and Technology Agency
▸ Strategist at IBM Asia Pacific Technical Operations Tokyo
▸ Research Member at IBM Watson Research Center, NY, USA
▸ Senior Manager at IBM Japan, Service Research
▸ Strategist at Personal Systems at IBM Research
3
RESEARCH EXAMPLES
VALUE PRICING
4
RESEARCH EXAMPLES
VALUE PRICING
5
TRANSFORMING RESEARCH AREAS
FROM MATH/SYSTEM/IT TO MANAGEMENT
EDUCATION
▸2011 Ph.D., Management Tokyo University, Department of General Systems
Studies, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Tokyo Japan
▸“Research on Service Innovation in Knowledge-Intensive Services: Analysis based
on Value Co-creation”
▸1987 Masters of Science Tokyo Institute of Technology, Systems Science,
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
▸1985 B.S., Science Tokyo Institute of Technology, Information Sciences, Tokyo,
Japan
philosophical
gap
math
system
IT
manegement
6
KAKENHI 2016-2019
CURRENT RESEARCH AGENDA
How to create service innovation systematically
Service Design X Management
1. How advanced companies are creating service innovation?
‣ organizations (climate, goals, evaluation)
‣ methodologies (methods, process, programs)
2. Develop service design methods for future creation
3. Apply the methods and identify issues for the further research
7
FINANCE INDUSTRY
CAPITAL
ONE+ADAPTIVE
PATH(DESIGN
FIRM)
8
CAPTALONE
SERVICE DESIGN
▸Service designers
▸Stakeholders
▸The Organization
9
INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY
SERVICE DESIGN IN GE
▸2013 12 designers
▸2016/1 67 designers
10
IT INDUSTRY
SERVICE DESIGN IN IBM
11
NEW SERVICE
SYSTEM DESIGN
CHALLENGES
1. SERVICE ECONOMY
2. INCREASING COMPLEXITY
3. LONG-TERM INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT
12
SERVICE ECONOMY
INNOVATION AND DESIGN FOCUS
1950 - 1970 - 1980 - 1990 - 2000 -
Source of
innovation
Technology
Technology push
model (Bush 1945),
Dosi 1982),
Rothwell
1992,1994)
Chain-linked
model (1970-
Kline and
Rosenberg 1986),
Gate keeper (Allen
1977)
Mode 1 & Mode 2
(Gibbons, et al.
1994),
Service innovation
(Sundbo 1994,
Edvardssin and
Olsson 1996, Gallouj
1998)
Open Innovation
(Chesbrough 2003),
Service Science,
Management,
Engineering and
Design (2004-)Non-
technology
(market)
Market pull model
(Schmookler 1966,
Scherer 1982)
User
innovation
von Hippel
(1988)
Design focus
Industrial products (William Morris, Bauhaus, Post modern, IDEO, d.school)
Service products (Shostack 1984,
Bitner 1992, Erlhoff, Merger,
Manzini 1997), Interaction (Holmlid
2007)
Service Systems
PSS (Morelli
2002), Service
system (The
Science of
Service Systems
2011)
13
SAWATANI, Y, AND NIWA, K., “SERVICE SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK FOCUSING ON VALUE
CREATION: CASE STUDY”, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WEB ENGINEERING AND
TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 5, NO. 3, 2009, PP.313-326.
WHICH KNOWLEDGE ARE IMPORTANT FOR
SERVICE INNOVATION?
14
SAWATANI, Y., FUJIGAKI, Y., “TRANSFORMATION OF R&D INTO A DRIVER OF SERVICE
INNOVATION: CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS”, JOURNAL OF SERVICE
SCIENCE, INFORMS, VOL. 6, ISSUE 1, MARCH 2014, PP. 1-14.
SERVICE RESEARCH MODEL FOR VALUE CO-
CREATION
New service
system realization
Value co-
creation
New research
theme creation
Site Sphere
R&D activities Mutual
understanding of
R&D and site
R&D Sphere
Value co-
creation
Sphere
H3 H2
H4
H1
.45**
.49**
.53**
.60**
15
ON DEMAND INNOVATION SERVICE (IBM) EXAMPLES OF
SERVICE SCIENCE RESEARCH THEMES
Service quality
Business modeling
Social modeling
Text mining
Mathematical scienceInformation technologyData science
Optimization
domain knowledge
Quality analysis
Business strategy
CRM
Risk analysis
Service system modeling
Voice technology
CSAT analysis
Software enquiring
System software
Psychology
SCM
R&D outputs
New research
theme
Service provider support
Natural language processing
Problem determination
Business evaluation methods
Service value evaluation methods
Environment/traffic simulation
Brand analysis
Network analysis
Simulation
Behavior analysis
Research management
16
INCREASING COMPLEXITY
SERVICE SYSTEM VIEWPOINTS
Complexities
Systems Simple/closed Complex/open
Jackson (System of Systems
Methodologies (SOSM))
Interactions
Interactions Value proposition based Governance based Spohrer, et al.
Value sharing
condition
Unitary Pluralist Coercive
Jackson (System of Systems
Methodologies (SOSM))
Scopes
System layer Micro: People Meso: OrganizationMacro: Social systems S3FIRE
Layer of design
Components,
Products
(Traditional
designing)
Systems
Community (Political
and social aspects)
Jones
Ref: Spohrer, J. C., Demirkan, H., and Krishna, V., 2011, Service and Science, In H. Demirkan, J.C. Spohrer and V. Krishna, Eds. The Science of Service Systems, Springer, pp.325-358.
Sawatani, Y., Arai, T., and Murakami, T., Creating Knowledge Structure for Service Science, 2013, PICMET
Jackson, Michael C., 2003, Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., UK
Ueda, K., Takenaka, T., Vancza, J., and Monostori, L., 2009, Value creation and decision-making in sustainable society, CIRP Annuals, Manufacturing Technology 58, pp.681-700
Jones, C.,1992, DESIGN METHODS, John Wiley & Sons.
17
HUMAN CENTERED COMPLEX SYSTEM
FRAMEWORK FOR SERVICE SYSTEM
DESIGN
Closed system Open system
Systems with value sharing condition
Shared Conflicted
System
layer
Micro: People
Meso:
Organization
Macro: Social
systems
SERVICE PRODUCTS
INDUST
RIAL
PRODU
CTS
EXPANDED TARGET AREA
SERVICE SYSTEM
18
LONG-TERM INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT
2-3 YEARS TO 5-10 YEARS TO DEVELOP
SOLUTIONS
Existing
Frontiers
Market
Future creation R&D
‣ Strategic Foresight
‣ GIO (Global Innovation
Outlook)
‣ Market interaction using
GTO
Advanced technology R&D
‣ Strategic Foresight
‣ GTO (Global Technology
Outlook)
Incremental R&D
‣ Design Thinking
‣ Joint Program with
Product Organization
New market development
‣ Design Thinking
‣ FOAK (First Of A Kind)
‣ Relationship manager as
a gatekeeper
Exploitation Exploration
R&D Activities
19
テキスト
LONG-TERM SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT
Existing
Frontiers
Market
Future creation R&D
• Strategic Foresight
Advanced technology
R&D
• Strategic Foresight
Incremental R&D
• Design Thinking
New market development
• Design Thinking
Exploitation Exploration
R&D Activities
20
テキスト
IDEO: INNOVATION = INTERSECTION OF HUMAN,
TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS
Ref: http://www.ideo.com/about/
Business
Viability
Technical
Feasibility
Human
Desirability
Innovation
21
テキスト
IMPACTS ON SYSTEM DESIGN
CHALLENGES
Service
System
Strategic
Foresight
Technical
Innovation
22
テキスト
NEW METHODS ARE INTRODUCED TO FILL
THE GAPS
Service System
Strategic Foresight
Technical
Context
Map
Generational Arcs
Progression
Curves
White Spots
Mockups
KJ Method
Story Telling
Service System Modeling
High-level Business Case
Team & Vision
Service Design
23
Service System Modeling
Service System Ecology (Ref: Spohrer and Maglio
2009)
Ecology
Elements
Interaction
(Network)
Value proposition
based interactions
Stakeholders
Metrics
Resources
Access rights
Governance
mechanism based
interactions
Outcomes
Win-Win
Win-Lose
Lose-Win
Lose-Lose
People
Organization
Information
Technology
24
Innovation Patterns
Value Migration
Optimization
Value creation
Meso
Macro System Ecosystem
Enterprise
Micro Political, Economic, Social, Technological
25
Digital content aggregation pattern
(digital content + content aggregation pattern + sw/device provider)
purchased
music
Applications
Market
Content
Devices
purchased
device
Market provider Customer
Content provider
New ExperienceNew business model
Device provider
New Solution
New business model
SW provider
26
Service innovation case study: Music1
Access &
download
New Solution
Technology Adoption to new area
PC
Applications Market
Music
Appliances purchase
search
Listen
Enterprise
Customer
Music Corp.
New Experience
New business model
New business model
Market provider
Content provider
SW/Device provider
27
Service innovation case study: Music2
Access &
download
New Solution
Music
Applications Market
Music
Appliances purchase
search
Listen
Enterprise
Customer
Music Corp.
New Experience
New business model
New business model
Market provider
Content provider
SW/Device provider
28
Service innovation case study: TV programs
Auto
download
Technology
Applications Menu
TV program
TV
Recorder
Profile
setting
search
watch
Customer
New business model
TV station
User Experience
New business model
Market provider
Content provider
Enterprise
New Solution
SW/Device provider
29
FUTURE CREATION BY
DESIGN THINKING
Strategic Foresight & Innovation
Workshop
11/22-23/2014 2days
Future Creation by Design thinking
11/29/2014-1/31 8 times × 3 hours
30
AALTO University
six schools married since
2010
• Service Factory (Business)
• Design Factory (Engineering)
31
Laurea University of
Applied Sciences
MBA Service Innovation and
Design
• Design thinking
• Service logic based strategic
management
• New service development and
innovative business models
• Deep customer insights
• Service design process and
methods
• Future thinking and foresight
methodologies
• Thesis
• Elective (business and leadership
competences, advances
competences in service innovation
and design, operational skills)
32
Loughborough
University
• Industrial Design
• Service Design and Management (London
2015 Fall start) 33
Royal College of Art
• Industrial Design , Innovation RCA
• Service Design (Design 70%, Business
20%, S&T 10%)
• Start from Design London (2005)
34
Life / Work
• Service Design Consulting Firm (2008-)
• Consulting globally, Thailand Railway, Finland
Lift
35
FUTURE CREATION
BY DESIGN
THINKING
36
テキスト
FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKTM + SERVICE
DESIGNPERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
Context
Map
Generational
Arcs
Janus Cones
White
Spots
Buddy
Checks
Vision
Statement
VIOCE Stars
DARPA
Hard Test
Crowd Clovers
Future
User
Future telling
Change
Paths
Paper
Mockups
Progression
Curves
© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton SERVICE
SYSTEM
MODELING
Pathfinders
HIGH-
LEVEL
BUSINESS
37
TODAY’S MISSION
▸Create new university concepts
targeting 2030.
▸Solving the gap between the current
and the 2030.
38
FUTURE CREATION-BY-DESIGN
THINKING
Ref: The Process of Design from a great height. by Damien Newman
39
Servitization of manufacturing companies:
Changing competence via the shift of provided
value
Ref: Discussion with Lasse Mitronen, AALTO University and Yuriko Sawatani, Waseda University.
ProcessProduct System
Provided Value
Competence
Product
System design
Human design
Product selling (ex. elevator)
Product maintenance (ex. elevator maintenance)
System design around a
product (ex. mobility design)
flow of people, space design
IT, censor, monitoring
learning, prediction
40
THEMES
FUTURE LIFE
41
THEMES
FUTURE LIFE(未来の暮らし)
42
PERSPECTIVES
43
Phase I: Perspective
44
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
Perspective gives you a broad frame of reference, holding
up a mirror to the past so you may better anticipate the
future
Questions that drive this phase:
• What is the bigger context for the topic we are interested in?
• What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements
can be identified as drivers?
• When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what
similarities in timing and adoption exist today?
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
3 methods for perspective
45
Context Maps
identify the main
dimensions of
your current
problem or
opportunity
space
Progression
Curves put event
timelines, industry
lifecycles, and
other develop-
ments in context
Janus Cones
let you to view
multiple,
overlapping, and
intersecting
events in a single
framework
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Context Maps
What is it
Context Maps capture the
themes that emerge when
discussing complex
problems.
When to use it
• To pursue an entirely new
area of research
• To find group agreement
on the important aspects
of a problem
• To gain fast background
for a particular topic
46Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Issues facing air freighters
Innovation Leadership Board LLC 47
Policy
changes
Environmental
awareness
Changing role
of humans
Network
congestion
Critical issues in cities
48
Source: Peter Hall and Ulrich Pfeiffer. 2000. Urban Future 21: A
Global Agenda for 21st Century Cities.Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Progression Curves
What is it
Progression Curves
represent the evolution of
changes in terms of
technological, social, and
other filters.
When to use it
• To understand the pattern
of events for a particular
topic and how these
events have led to its
current state
49Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Evolution of touchscreens
50Source: Santhi Elayaperumal, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Common adoption stages
51
TECHNOLOGY
SOCIAL
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Janus Cones
What is it
Janus Cones looks
backwards and forwards in
time to identify the timing of
historical events and how
timing affects potential future
events.
When to use it
• To become a fast expert of
your topic’s background
• To discern a possible
pattern of relationships
among many related (and
even unrelated) events
52Innovation Leadership Board LLC
American beliefs in driving
53Source: Stanford University, ME410, 2009Innovation Leadership Board LLC
FOOD
2009 food factory
2010 convenience store vegetable
2000 2010 2020
2016 amazon dash
2012 instacart
202x autodrive
2015 amazon alexa, google home
1997 cookpad, recipe site cookpad, coupon
2000 oicix
54
Team exercise
55
1. Identify a shared topic of interest with your team
2. Practice using methods to gain quick perspective
3. Present a short overview to your peers
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
OPPORTUNITY
56
Phase II: Opportunity
57
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
This phase develops an ability to see growth opportunities
that exist today and extend into the future by
understanding future customer changes
Questions that drive this phase:
• Which behaviors are emerging that will shape or influence new
opportunities in the future?
• Which major changes about people over time, such as population
movements and generational shifts, can we identify and under-
stand that affect future changes?
• What might we expect from future users and customers?
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
3 methods for opportunity
58
Generational
Arcs views the
demographic
changes and
generational
views of a target
population
Future User
profiles your future
customer based on
what will (and will
not) change from
today’s customer
Futuretelling
uses live theater
to illustrate a
particular user
need as a
realistic scene
from the future
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Generational Arcs
What is it
Generational Arcs is a
comparative method that
identifies and tracks
population changes in terms
of life stages and other
generational variables.
When to use it
• To evaluate a new market
or expected market change
• To anticipate major
disruptions in demographic
structures within a target
user population
• To analyze a different or
younger user base relative
to your current user base
59Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Three dominant generations
60
Age Today
Millennials
(1984 – 2003)
Baby
Boomers
(1946 – 1963)Generation X
(1964 – 1983)
U.S.Population
Source: U.S. CensusInnovation Leadership Board LLC
アメリカの世代人口
• サイレント(Silent generation) 1925-1942
年に生まれた世代
• ベビーブーマー(baby boomers) 1946-
1959年に生まれた世代
• ジェネレーションX (Generation X) 1961-
1981年に生まれた世代 しらけ世代、新
人類
• ジェネレーションY (Generation Y) 1975-
1989年(-95年)に生まれた世代、エコブー
マー(echo boomers)
• ミレニアルズ(Millennials) 1981年代か
ら1990年代に生まれた人々、デジタルネ
イティブ
61
ミレニアルズ(Millennials)の特徴
ref: http://www.forbes.com/sites/danschawbel/2013/12/16/10-ways-millennials-are-creating-the-future-of-work/ 62
デジタルネイティブ
透明性の強制
家で働くことを好む
企業文化、意味のある仕事ネットワーク型ワーク
対面の意味が変わる リアルタイム・実績重視
社会とのつながり
日本の世代人口
• 団塊の世代 1947-1949年生まれ
• しらけ世代 1950年代から
1960年代に生まれた世代
• 新人類 1961-1970年に生まれ
た世代 氷河期時代
• さとり世代 1990年代に生
まれた世代
60-
25-44
80-
35-54
千人
年
63
さとり世代
• 2015年時点で20~35歳の人たち。主に、新人類世
代・バブル世代の子供たち
• 「少子化世代である」
• 「不景気しか知らない」
• 「欲が無い」、「恋愛に興味が無い」、「旅行に
行かない」、休日は自宅で過ごしていることが多
く、「無駄遣いをしない」、「気の合わない人と
は付き合わない」
• インターネットを利用して育ってきていることか
ら現実への知識が豊富で無駄な努力や衝突は避け
、大きな夢や高望みが無く、合理性を重視する傾
向がある。
• 成長時でのインターネットの経験があり、アップ
ル、スマートフォン、パソコン、タブレット、ウ
ェブサービスといったテクノロジーに関する革新
的なものへの興味が高く、発想力や創造性への意
識が強いのが特徴である。
64
Future User
What is it
• Future User creates a
future profile of a user
within a targeted
demographic through the
comparative analysis of
similar groups over time
When to use it
• To expand the work of
existing user personas
• To identify the user needs
of a specific market
segment in the future
• To identify similarities and
differences in values,
attitudes, and behaviors
between two customer
generations
65Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Picking the right future customer
Sample questions to ask yourself:
• Which customer group would benefit most by change?
• Who are the biggest decision makers for us?
• Which group would be most strategic for our future
growth?
• Which group has the most influence or dominant impact
in our target demographics bracket?
Innovation Leadership Board LLC 66
A future car driver in India
67
1996 2008 2020
Sid
age 34
Nikhil
age 34
Siddhartha
age 22
Nikhil
age 22
Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Siddhartha today at age 22
Basic Profile
• 22 years old.
• Lives in a 3 bedroom apartment in Thane on the
outskirts of Mumbai with his parents.
• Father runs a business in logistics, mother is a
housewife.
• Finished his BBA (Bachelors in business
administration) from Mumbai University last year
and joined his father’s logistics business.
• Income = Rs. 500,000 (US$13,000)
Lifestyle
• Hangs out with friends from the apartment complex
in the clubhouse, or watches movies, cricket at
home.
• Goes to pubs with friends sometimes.
• Groceries and sundry household shopping is done
by domestic help.
Motivators & Beliefs
• Believes that business principles should be used in
government.
• Does not vote.
• Plans to give GMAT and attend a US university for
MBA, but has not started studying for it yet.
• Takes the availability of foreign brands for granted.
Has no memory of India before liberalization.
Consumption Habits
• Shops for Levis, Louis Philippe and other foreign
brands at Eternity mall in Thane.
• Owns a HP personal computer at home with
broadband access.
• Uses a Nokia N-gage cell phone.
• Drives a Hyundai Santro. Family also owns a
Skoda Octavia and Honda City.
68Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Life comparison at age 34
69
1996 2008 2020
Sid
age 34
Nikhil
age 34
Siddhartha
age 22
Nikhil
age 22
Similarities
• Both married and have children
• Purchased apt. after marriage
• Commute in chauffeur-driven car
• Domestic help takes care of sundry
shopping, cleaning and cooking
• Family owns a farmhouse
• Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby
malls
Differences
• Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to
top position in fathers company
• Nikhil lives alone, Sid lives with parents
• Farmhouse is ancestral land for Nikhil, a
novelty for Sid
Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Future Sid at age 34
Basic Profile
• 34 years old (born 1986)
• Managing director at the logistics firm started by his
father who is the chairman
• Married at 30, met wife at a friend’s wedding
• Wife works as an architect
• Has one child who is 2 years old
• Combined income: 2500,000 rupees
(~$62,500)
Lifestyle
• Moved with his parents into a bigger 5 bedroom
apartment in a posh location in Thane, India
• Family recently purchased a 40 acre farmhouse at
Neral near Mumbai
• Employs a household staff of three – chauffer, and
two maids.
Motivators & Beliefs
• Is happy with the growth of his business
• Wants to give his son a rounded education with
sports and culture besides the societal emphasis
on academics
• Doesn’t care much about politics although is
worried about growing sectarian violence and its
effect on his business
• Wants to do a world tour combining business and
vacationing
Consumption Habits
• Owns plasma TV, home theater system and latest
household appliances
• Does a daily workout at the apartment gym
• Family vacations in Europe and the U.S.
• Owns a Kaiser India health insurance plan
• Drives a Mercedes S-class to work and a Land
Rover to his farmhouse
70Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Futuretelling
What is it
Futuretellings are short and
dramatic performances that
illustrate a particular user
need as a scene from the
future. This is active
storytelling at its best.
When to use it
• To excite your audience
about a future possibility
that may be difficult to
express in words
• To change the energy
dynamic in a stale planning
conversation
• To complement written
explanations of your idea
71Innovation Leadership Board LLC
72Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Team exercise
73
1. Continue with your team’s topic
2. Practice using future user and future telling methods
3. Present your future user’s situation first with a short
Futuretelling skit
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
3 2
4 1
BREAK & SKITS
74
SOLUTION
75
Phase III: Solution
76
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
This phase seeks to define the questions that exist along
different paths to innovation, which are specific to your
industry, customers, organization & team skills
Questions that drive this phase:
• How can we determine the multiple paths possible to get from
today to tomorrow's future innovation?
• Looking at what we've learned, how long does each step take
along the various paths?
• What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in our
control?
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
3 methods for solution
77
White Spots
finds hidden
markets and
provides a
broad look at
the competitor
landscape
Paper Mockups
create tangible
models of your
ideas that you can
test at low cost for
high learning value
Change Paths
plot the major
milestones that
you will need to
achieve on your
path to action
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
White Spots
What is it
White Spots is a strategic
method for studying the
opportunity space defined by
two salient issues.
When to use it
• To systematically find new
solution areas or potential
markets that are unknown
or ignored by competition
• To identify relevant
dimensions for the
fundamental value of your
innovation idea
78Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Personal flying cars
79
Military
Utility
Civilian
Utility
Affordable Expensive
Very small &
information
gathering Unmanned VTOL &
mission specific
Unmanned &
mission specific
(2001–now)
Fast
commuter
vehicle
Compact
commuter
vehicle
Electric vehicles
(2007–now) Light sport
aircraft (LSA)
(2007–now)
Hybrid design with
improved efficiency
Large
commuter
vehicle Luxury
or sporty
vehicle
Fast &
luxurious
vehicle
Business
vehicle
Fast VTOL
and luxurious
Vertical takeoff &
landing (VTOL)
Large
payload
capability
Fast &
mission-
specificVTOL &
heavy payload
Heavily
armored
Extremely fast &
maneuverable
Mission
specific &
armored
Personal
flying cars
Infra-
structure
Performance
Utility
Cost
Flying
Car
Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Paper Mockups
What is it
Paper Mockups asks
participants to physically
model a future system.
When to use it
• To better understand an
ambiguous innovation
concept
• To visually communicate a
new innovation proposal to
others
• To ensure rapid cycles of
feedback and learning
• To rally support for a new
idea with those around you
80Innovation Leadership Board LLC
81
MS SF
Source: Ming-Li ChaiInnovation Leadership Board LLC
Change Paths
What is it
Change Paths are data-
driven narratives exploring
different paths and key
decision points toward
possible future innovations.
When to use it
• To address the gap
between vision and action
• To provide some tangible
steps to achieve your
general vision
82Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Two visions, one future
83
Airbus
380
“Super
jumbo”
Partner with airports
Develop
global partners
x
x
x
Assess feasible
airports
Boeing
787
“Dream
liner”
Design for
passenger comfort
Outsource
development
x
x
Assess emerging
technologies
x
Boeing’s vision: Develop a fuel efficient point-to-point aircraft
Airbus’ vision: Develop a larger hub-to-hub aircraft
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Layering the tools
Innovation Leadership Board LLC 84
VISION &
ECOSYSTEM
85
Phase V: Vision
86
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
This phase sharpens your team’s vision so that it may
take on a life of its own and guide everyone’s actions
forward
Questions that drive this phase:
• What is a good vision?
• How do we know we have a good vision?
• How do we develop a good vision?
• What is the best way to communicate our vision to others?
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Vision Statement
What is it
A Vision Statement provides
a short vivid description of
your idea in order to inspire,
energize, and help others
create a mental picture of
your target future
opportunity.
When to use it
• To quickly and simply
define a new idea,
innovation solution, or
business opportunity and its
desired outcome
• To condense the essentials
of your idea in a one-minute
story
• To remind your team and
partners what you are
trying to build
87Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Sample vision statement
88
Our vision is to create a personal artificial executive assistant that makes sense of
volumes of information to help you to make decisions on demand.
It is almost impossible to achieve because the transformation of volumes of
information requires technologies that we don’t have today (e.g., systematic analysis
of any type of information).
The timing is right today due to the increasing convergence of technologies in
social networking tools, linguistics, and semantic analysis.
Precedents of this idea include personal digital assistants and the classic valet.
By working with Google, SAP, Pixar, and Microsoft,
we will make this vision real in 6 years by .
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
How to find answers faster
89
Our vision is to .
It is almost impossible to achieve because
.
The timing is right today due to .
Precedents of this idea include .
By working with ,
we will make this vision real in _________ years
by .
Innovation Leadership Board LLC
Digital content aggregation pattern
(digital content + content aggregation pattern + sw/device provider)
purchased
music
Applications
Market
Content
Devices
purchased
device
Market provider Customer
Content provider
New ExperienceNew business model
Device provider
New Solution
New business model
SW provider
90
CUSTOMER VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS
¥
push
order
new channel
order
deliver
put to the place
91
HIGH-LEVEL
BUSINESS CASE
92
FUTURE CREATION-BY-DESIGN
THINKING
Technology
Business/Society
Future
テクノロジーOutlook (IBM GTO)
企業・顧客調査
トレンド、シナリオプランニ
ング
Future life enabled by
advanced technology
and
societal change
93
WHY FUTURE CREATION BY DESIGN
THINKING
Imagine too far, then
difficult to realize
Near future, then
could not differentiate
Integrate from both sides, and create a
business case between current and
future
94
テキスト
HIGH-LEVEL BUSINESS CASE
Select topics
Imagine future
Research
advanced
cases
Generate
signposts
Budget,Scope,
Timeframe
Vision, creative thinking,
collective intelligence
Describe
business
cases
Search on Web, Assess
future technologies
Interpolate between
present and future
Pickup stories nearest to present
as possible business cases
95
テキスト
NEW METHOD: OVERVIEW
■ “Uncertainty” expressed as “future”
▸Impossible things might be possible in the future
▸When, which level can be achieved
▸Even though they are available, do not know that are accepted by society
■ Interpolate constraints between present and future
▸Present = future + constraints
▸Examine possible mixture of constrains
▸Intermediary steps between present and future are created by resolving constraints
■ Creation of high-level business cases
▸The most immediate intermediary steps are hi-level business cases to be considered
96
CASE CASE STUDY: DIGITAL ME RETAIL BANK
present Intermediate steps future
HIGH-LEVEL BUSINESS CASE
Aggregation
service
Personal
aggregation
Client
application
type
aggregation Utilize WEB2.0
-Provide standard components for
banking
-Configure components and create by
customers
Certificate
digitization
▪Standardization of certificate
▪Growth of enterprises with certificate
▪Web2.0 aggregation
components standardization
Japan/global cases
exist, however, they
hold the growth
Shop
receipt
digitization
▪Receipt standardization
▪Growth of digitized receipt
member’s stores
Server type
Client type
Digital Me
Financial
service
Content
digitization
▪Access to digitized contents
▪Link between receipts and contents
▪Security
▪Single-sign on
Server type
aggregation
Digital Me
Content
service
▪Service platform
Retail
financial
consultation
▪Service platform
▪Service platform
Provider type
97
FINAL
PRESENTATIO
N
98
Future creation0606

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Future creation0606

  • 2. 2017 FUTURE CREATION BY-DESIGN THINKING: UNIVERSITY 2030 First half 9:00-9:20 Opening 9:20-9:50 Perspectives 9:50-10:20 Opportunity 10:20-10:30 Break Latter half 10:30-10:45 Skit 10:45-11:05 Vision & Ecosystem 11:05-11:35 High-level Business case 11:35-12:00 Final presentation & Nest step 2
  • 3. 70% GLOBAL ROLE, 75% LEADER’S ROLE INTRODUCTION ▸2015 – Present Professor Tokyo University of Technology, Graduate School of Entrepreneurship, Tokyo, Japan ▸2013 – 2015 Professor Waseda University, Center for Research Strategy, Tokyo, Japan ▸-2012 Senior Manager at IBM Japan, Tokyo Research, Service Research ▸ Fellow Japan Science and Technology Agency ▸ Strategist at IBM Asia Pacific Technical Operations Tokyo ▸ Research Member at IBM Watson Research Center, NY, USA ▸ Senior Manager at IBM Japan, Service Research ▸ Strategist at Personal Systems at IBM Research 3
  • 6. TRANSFORMING RESEARCH AREAS FROM MATH/SYSTEM/IT TO MANAGEMENT EDUCATION ▸2011 Ph.D., Management Tokyo University, Department of General Systems Studies, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Tokyo Japan ▸“Research on Service Innovation in Knowledge-Intensive Services: Analysis based on Value Co-creation” ▸1987 Masters of Science Tokyo Institute of Technology, Systems Science, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo, Japan ▸1985 B.S., Science Tokyo Institute of Technology, Information Sciences, Tokyo, Japan philosophical gap math system IT manegement 6
  • 7. KAKENHI 2016-2019 CURRENT RESEARCH AGENDA How to create service innovation systematically Service Design X Management 1. How advanced companies are creating service innovation? ‣ organizations (climate, goals, evaluation) ‣ methodologies (methods, process, programs) 2. Develop service design methods for future creation 3. Apply the methods and identify issues for the further research 7
  • 10. INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY SERVICE DESIGN IN GE ▸2013 12 designers ▸2016/1 67 designers 10
  • 12. NEW SERVICE SYSTEM DESIGN CHALLENGES 1. SERVICE ECONOMY 2. INCREASING COMPLEXITY 3. LONG-TERM INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT 12
  • 13. SERVICE ECONOMY INNOVATION AND DESIGN FOCUS 1950 - 1970 - 1980 - 1990 - 2000 - Source of innovation Technology Technology push model (Bush 1945), Dosi 1982), Rothwell 1992,1994) Chain-linked model (1970- Kline and Rosenberg 1986), Gate keeper (Allen 1977) Mode 1 & Mode 2 (Gibbons, et al. 1994), Service innovation (Sundbo 1994, Edvardssin and Olsson 1996, Gallouj 1998) Open Innovation (Chesbrough 2003), Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design (2004-)Non- technology (market) Market pull model (Schmookler 1966, Scherer 1982) User innovation von Hippel (1988) Design focus Industrial products (William Morris, Bauhaus, Post modern, IDEO, d.school) Service products (Shostack 1984, Bitner 1992, Erlhoff, Merger, Manzini 1997), Interaction (Holmlid 2007) Service Systems PSS (Morelli 2002), Service system (The Science of Service Systems 2011) 13
  • 14. SAWATANI, Y, AND NIWA, K., “SERVICE SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK FOCUSING ON VALUE CREATION: CASE STUDY”, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WEB ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 5, NO. 3, 2009, PP.313-326. WHICH KNOWLEDGE ARE IMPORTANT FOR SERVICE INNOVATION? 14
  • 15. SAWATANI, Y., FUJIGAKI, Y., “TRANSFORMATION OF R&D INTO A DRIVER OF SERVICE INNOVATION: CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS”, JOURNAL OF SERVICE SCIENCE, INFORMS, VOL. 6, ISSUE 1, MARCH 2014, PP. 1-14. SERVICE RESEARCH MODEL FOR VALUE CO- CREATION New service system realization Value co- creation New research theme creation Site Sphere R&D activities Mutual understanding of R&D and site R&D Sphere Value co- creation Sphere H3 H2 H4 H1 .45** .49** .53** .60** 15
  • 16. ON DEMAND INNOVATION SERVICE (IBM) EXAMPLES OF SERVICE SCIENCE RESEARCH THEMES Service quality Business modeling Social modeling Text mining Mathematical scienceInformation technologyData science Optimization domain knowledge Quality analysis Business strategy CRM Risk analysis Service system modeling Voice technology CSAT analysis Software enquiring System software Psychology SCM R&D outputs New research theme Service provider support Natural language processing Problem determination Business evaluation methods Service value evaluation methods Environment/traffic simulation Brand analysis Network analysis Simulation Behavior analysis Research management 16
  • 17. INCREASING COMPLEXITY SERVICE SYSTEM VIEWPOINTS Complexities Systems Simple/closed Complex/open Jackson (System of Systems Methodologies (SOSM)) Interactions Interactions Value proposition based Governance based Spohrer, et al. Value sharing condition Unitary Pluralist Coercive Jackson (System of Systems Methodologies (SOSM)) Scopes System layer Micro: People Meso: OrganizationMacro: Social systems S3FIRE Layer of design Components, Products (Traditional designing) Systems Community (Political and social aspects) Jones Ref: Spohrer, J. C., Demirkan, H., and Krishna, V., 2011, Service and Science, In H. Demirkan, J.C. Spohrer and V. Krishna, Eds. The Science of Service Systems, Springer, pp.325-358. Sawatani, Y., Arai, T., and Murakami, T., Creating Knowledge Structure for Service Science, 2013, PICMET Jackson, Michael C., 2003, Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., UK Ueda, K., Takenaka, T., Vancza, J., and Monostori, L., 2009, Value creation and decision-making in sustainable society, CIRP Annuals, Manufacturing Technology 58, pp.681-700 Jones, C.,1992, DESIGN METHODS, John Wiley & Sons. 17
  • 18. HUMAN CENTERED COMPLEX SYSTEM FRAMEWORK FOR SERVICE SYSTEM DESIGN Closed system Open system Systems with value sharing condition Shared Conflicted System layer Micro: People Meso: Organization Macro: Social systems SERVICE PRODUCTS INDUST RIAL PRODU CTS EXPANDED TARGET AREA SERVICE SYSTEM 18
  • 19. LONG-TERM INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT 2-3 YEARS TO 5-10 YEARS TO DEVELOP SOLUTIONS Existing Frontiers Market Future creation R&D ‣ Strategic Foresight ‣ GIO (Global Innovation Outlook) ‣ Market interaction using GTO Advanced technology R&D ‣ Strategic Foresight ‣ GTO (Global Technology Outlook) Incremental R&D ‣ Design Thinking ‣ Joint Program with Product Organization New market development ‣ Design Thinking ‣ FOAK (First Of A Kind) ‣ Relationship manager as a gatekeeper Exploitation Exploration R&D Activities 19
  • 20. テキスト LONG-TERM SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT Existing Frontiers Market Future creation R&D • Strategic Foresight Advanced technology R&D • Strategic Foresight Incremental R&D • Design Thinking New market development • Design Thinking Exploitation Exploration R&D Activities 20
  • 21. テキスト IDEO: INNOVATION = INTERSECTION OF HUMAN, TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS Ref: http://www.ideo.com/about/ Business Viability Technical Feasibility Human Desirability Innovation 21
  • 22. テキスト IMPACTS ON SYSTEM DESIGN CHALLENGES Service System Strategic Foresight Technical Innovation 22
  • 23. テキスト NEW METHODS ARE INTRODUCED TO FILL THE GAPS Service System Strategic Foresight Technical Context Map Generational Arcs Progression Curves White Spots Mockups KJ Method Story Telling Service System Modeling High-level Business Case Team & Vision Service Design 23
  • 24. Service System Modeling Service System Ecology (Ref: Spohrer and Maglio 2009) Ecology Elements Interaction (Network) Value proposition based interactions Stakeholders Metrics Resources Access rights Governance mechanism based interactions Outcomes Win-Win Win-Lose Lose-Win Lose-Lose People Organization Information Technology 24
  • 25. Innovation Patterns Value Migration Optimization Value creation Meso Macro System Ecosystem Enterprise Micro Political, Economic, Social, Technological 25
  • 26. Digital content aggregation pattern (digital content + content aggregation pattern + sw/device provider) purchased music Applications Market Content Devices purchased device Market provider Customer Content provider New ExperienceNew business model Device provider New Solution New business model SW provider 26
  • 27. Service innovation case study: Music1 Access & download New Solution Technology Adoption to new area PC Applications Market Music Appliances purchase search Listen Enterprise Customer Music Corp. New Experience New business model New business model Market provider Content provider SW/Device provider 27
  • 28. Service innovation case study: Music2 Access & download New Solution Music Applications Market Music Appliances purchase search Listen Enterprise Customer Music Corp. New Experience New business model New business model Market provider Content provider SW/Device provider 28
  • 29. Service innovation case study: TV programs Auto download Technology Applications Menu TV program TV Recorder Profile setting search watch Customer New business model TV station User Experience New business model Market provider Content provider Enterprise New Solution SW/Device provider 29
  • 30. FUTURE CREATION BY DESIGN THINKING Strategic Foresight & Innovation Workshop 11/22-23/2014 2days Future Creation by Design thinking 11/29/2014-1/31 8 times × 3 hours 30
  • 31. AALTO University six schools married since 2010 • Service Factory (Business) • Design Factory (Engineering) 31
  • 32. Laurea University of Applied Sciences MBA Service Innovation and Design • Design thinking • Service logic based strategic management • New service development and innovative business models • Deep customer insights • Service design process and methods • Future thinking and foresight methodologies • Thesis • Elective (business and leadership competences, advances competences in service innovation and design, operational skills) 32
  • 33. Loughborough University • Industrial Design • Service Design and Management (London 2015 Fall start) 33
  • 34. Royal College of Art • Industrial Design , Innovation RCA • Service Design (Design 70%, Business 20%, S&T 10%) • Start from Design London (2005) 34
  • 35. Life / Work • Service Design Consulting Firm (2008-) • Consulting globally, Thailand Railway, Finland Lift 35
  • 37. テキスト FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKTM + SERVICE DESIGNPERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION Context Map Generational Arcs Janus Cones White Spots Buddy Checks Vision Statement VIOCE Stars DARPA Hard Test Crowd Clovers Future User Future telling Change Paths Paper Mockups Progression Curves © 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton SERVICE SYSTEM MODELING Pathfinders HIGH- LEVEL BUSINESS 37
  • 38. TODAY’S MISSION ▸Create new university concepts targeting 2030. ▸Solving the gap between the current and the 2030. 38
  • 39. FUTURE CREATION-BY-DESIGN THINKING Ref: The Process of Design from a great height. by Damien Newman 39
  • 40. Servitization of manufacturing companies: Changing competence via the shift of provided value Ref: Discussion with Lasse Mitronen, AALTO University and Yuriko Sawatani, Waseda University. ProcessProduct System Provided Value Competence Product System design Human design Product selling (ex. elevator) Product maintenance (ex. elevator maintenance) System design around a product (ex. mobility design) flow of people, space design IT, censor, monitoring learning, prediction 40
  • 44. Phase I: Perspective 44 PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION Perspective gives you a broad frame of reference, holding up a mirror to the past so you may better anticipate the future Questions that drive this phase: • What is the bigger context for the topic we are interested in? • What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be identified as drivers? • When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in timing and adoption exist today? Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 45. 3 methods for perspective 45 Context Maps identify the main dimensions of your current problem or opportunity space Progression Curves put event timelines, industry lifecycles, and other develop- ments in context Janus Cones let you to view multiple, overlapping, and intersecting events in a single framework Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 46. Context Maps What is it Context Maps capture the themes that emerge when discussing complex problems. When to use it • To pursue an entirely new area of research • To find group agreement on the important aspects of a problem • To gain fast background for a particular topic 46Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 47. Issues facing air freighters Innovation Leadership Board LLC 47 Policy changes Environmental awareness Changing role of humans Network congestion
  • 48. Critical issues in cities 48 Source: Peter Hall and Ulrich Pfeiffer. 2000. Urban Future 21: A Global Agenda for 21st Century Cities.Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 49. Progression Curves What is it Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of technological, social, and other filters. When to use it • To understand the pattern of events for a particular topic and how these events have led to its current state 49Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 50. Evolution of touchscreens 50Source: Santhi Elayaperumal, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 52. Janus Cones What is it Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events. When to use it • To become a fast expert of your topic’s background • To discern a possible pattern of relationships among many related (and even unrelated) events 52Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 53. American beliefs in driving 53Source: Stanford University, ME410, 2009Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 54. FOOD 2009 food factory 2010 convenience store vegetable 2000 2010 2020 2016 amazon dash 2012 instacart 202x autodrive 2015 amazon alexa, google home 1997 cookpad, recipe site cookpad, coupon 2000 oicix 54
  • 55. Team exercise 55 1. Identify a shared topic of interest with your team 2. Practice using methods to gain quick perspective 3. Present a short overview to your peers Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 57. Phase II: Opportunity 57 PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION This phase develops an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future by understanding future customer changes Questions that drive this phase: • Which behaviors are emerging that will shape or influence new opportunities in the future? • Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and under- stand that affect future changes? • What might we expect from future users and customers? Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 58. 3 methods for opportunity 58 Generational Arcs views the demographic changes and generational views of a target population Future User profiles your future customer based on what will (and will not) change from today’s customer Futuretelling uses live theater to illustrate a particular user need as a realistic scene from the future Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 59. Generational Arcs What is it Generational Arcs is a comparative method that identifies and tracks population changes in terms of life stages and other generational variables. When to use it • To evaluate a new market or expected market change • To anticipate major disruptions in demographic structures within a target user population • To analyze a different or younger user base relative to your current user base 59Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 60. Three dominant generations 60 Age Today Millennials (1984 – 2003) Baby Boomers (1946 – 1963)Generation X (1964 – 1983) U.S.Population Source: U.S. CensusInnovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 61. アメリカの世代人口 • サイレント(Silent generation) 1925-1942 年に生まれた世代 • ベビーブーマー(baby boomers) 1946- 1959年に生まれた世代 • ジェネレーションX (Generation X) 1961- 1981年に生まれた世代 しらけ世代、新 人類 • ジェネレーションY (Generation Y) 1975- 1989年(-95年)に生まれた世代、エコブー マー(echo boomers) • ミレニアルズ(Millennials) 1981年代か ら1990年代に生まれた人々、デジタルネ イティブ 61
  • 63. 日本の世代人口 • 団塊の世代 1947-1949年生まれ • しらけ世代 1950年代から 1960年代に生まれた世代 • 新人類 1961-1970年に生まれ た世代 氷河期時代 • さとり世代 1990年代に生 まれた世代 60- 25-44 80- 35-54 千人 年 63
  • 64. さとり世代 • 2015年時点で20~35歳の人たち。主に、新人類世 代・バブル世代の子供たち • 「少子化世代である」 • 「不景気しか知らない」 • 「欲が無い」、「恋愛に興味が無い」、「旅行に 行かない」、休日は自宅で過ごしていることが多 く、「無駄遣いをしない」、「気の合わない人と は付き合わない」 • インターネットを利用して育ってきていることか ら現実への知識が豊富で無駄な努力や衝突は避け 、大きな夢や高望みが無く、合理性を重視する傾 向がある。 • 成長時でのインターネットの経験があり、アップ ル、スマートフォン、パソコン、タブレット、ウ ェブサービスといったテクノロジーに関する革新 的なものへの興味が高く、発想力や創造性への意 識が強いのが特徴である。 64
  • 65. Future User What is it • Future User creates a future profile of a user within a targeted demographic through the comparative analysis of similar groups over time When to use it • To expand the work of existing user personas • To identify the user needs of a specific market segment in the future • To identify similarities and differences in values, attitudes, and behaviors between two customer generations 65Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 66. Picking the right future customer Sample questions to ask yourself: • Which customer group would benefit most by change? • Who are the biggest decision makers for us? • Which group would be most strategic for our future growth? • Which group has the most influence or dominant impact in our target demographics bracket? Innovation Leadership Board LLC 66
  • 67. A future car driver in India 67 1996 2008 2020 Sid age 34 Nikhil age 34 Siddhartha age 22 Nikhil age 22 Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 68. Siddhartha today at age 22 Basic Profile • 22 years old. • Lives in a 3 bedroom apartment in Thane on the outskirts of Mumbai with his parents. • Father runs a business in logistics, mother is a housewife. • Finished his BBA (Bachelors in business administration) from Mumbai University last year and joined his father’s logistics business. • Income = Rs. 500,000 (US$13,000) Lifestyle • Hangs out with friends from the apartment complex in the clubhouse, or watches movies, cricket at home. • Goes to pubs with friends sometimes. • Groceries and sundry household shopping is done by domestic help. Motivators & Beliefs • Believes that business principles should be used in government. • Does not vote. • Plans to give GMAT and attend a US university for MBA, but has not started studying for it yet. • Takes the availability of foreign brands for granted. Has no memory of India before liberalization. Consumption Habits • Shops for Levis, Louis Philippe and other foreign brands at Eternity mall in Thane. • Owns a HP personal computer at home with broadband access. • Uses a Nokia N-gage cell phone. • Drives a Hyundai Santro. Family also owns a Skoda Octavia and Honda City. 68Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 69. Life comparison at age 34 69 1996 2008 2020 Sid age 34 Nikhil age 34 Siddhartha age 22 Nikhil age 22 Similarities • Both married and have children • Purchased apt. after marriage • Commute in chauffeur-driven car • Domestic help takes care of sundry shopping, cleaning and cooking • Family owns a farmhouse • Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby malls Differences • Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to top position in fathers company • Nikhil lives alone, Sid lives with parents • Farmhouse is ancestral land for Nikhil, a novelty for Sid Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 70. Future Sid at age 34 Basic Profile • 34 years old (born 1986) • Managing director at the logistics firm started by his father who is the chairman • Married at 30, met wife at a friend’s wedding • Wife works as an architect • Has one child who is 2 years old • Combined income: 2500,000 rupees (~$62,500) Lifestyle • Moved with his parents into a bigger 5 bedroom apartment in a posh location in Thane, India • Family recently purchased a 40 acre farmhouse at Neral near Mumbai • Employs a household staff of three – chauffer, and two maids. Motivators & Beliefs • Is happy with the growth of his business • Wants to give his son a rounded education with sports and culture besides the societal emphasis on academics • Doesn’t care much about politics although is worried about growing sectarian violence and its effect on his business • Wants to do a world tour combining business and vacationing Consumption Habits • Owns plasma TV, home theater system and latest household appliances • Does a daily workout at the apartment gym • Family vacations in Europe and the U.S. • Owns a Kaiser India health insurance plan • Drives a Mercedes S-class to work and a Land Rover to his farmhouse 70Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 71. Futuretelling What is it Futuretellings are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best. When to use it • To excite your audience about a future possibility that may be difficult to express in words • To change the energy dynamic in a stale planning conversation • To complement written explanations of your idea 71Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 73. Team exercise 73 1. Continue with your team’s topic 2. Practice using future user and future telling methods 3. Present your future user’s situation first with a short Futuretelling skit Innovation Leadership Board LLC 3 2 4 1
  • 76. Phase III: Solution 76 PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION This phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation, which are specific to your industry, customers, organization & team skills Questions that drive this phase: • How can we determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrow's future innovation? • Looking at what we've learned, how long does each step take along the various paths? • What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in our control? Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 77. 3 methods for solution 77 White Spots finds hidden markets and provides a broad look at the competitor landscape Paper Mockups create tangible models of your ideas that you can test at low cost for high learning value Change Paths plot the major milestones that you will need to achieve on your path to action Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 78. White Spots What is it White Spots is a strategic method for studying the opportunity space defined by two salient issues. When to use it • To systematically find new solution areas or potential markets that are unknown or ignored by competition • To identify relevant dimensions for the fundamental value of your innovation idea 78Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 79. Personal flying cars 79 Military Utility Civilian Utility Affordable Expensive Very small & information gathering Unmanned VTOL & mission specific Unmanned & mission specific (2001–now) Fast commuter vehicle Compact commuter vehicle Electric vehicles (2007–now) Light sport aircraft (LSA) (2007–now) Hybrid design with improved efficiency Large commuter vehicle Luxury or sporty vehicle Fast & luxurious vehicle Business vehicle Fast VTOL and luxurious Vertical takeoff & landing (VTOL) Large payload capability Fast & mission- specificVTOL & heavy payload Heavily armored Extremely fast & maneuverable Mission specific & armored Personal flying cars Infra- structure Performance Utility Cost Flying Car Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 80. Paper Mockups What is it Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system. When to use it • To better understand an ambiguous innovation concept • To visually communicate a new innovation proposal to others • To ensure rapid cycles of feedback and learning • To rally support for a new idea with those around you 80Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 81. 81 MS SF Source: Ming-Li ChaiInnovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 82. Change Paths What is it Change Paths are data- driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations. When to use it • To address the gap between vision and action • To provide some tangible steps to achieve your general vision 82Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 83. Two visions, one future 83 Airbus 380 “Super jumbo” Partner with airports Develop global partners x x x Assess feasible airports Boeing 787 “Dream liner” Design for passenger comfort Outsource development x x Assess emerging technologies x Boeing’s vision: Develop a fuel efficient point-to-point aircraft Airbus’ vision: Develop a larger hub-to-hub aircraft Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 84. Layering the tools Innovation Leadership Board LLC 84
  • 86. Phase V: Vision 86 PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION This phase sharpens your team’s vision so that it may take on a life of its own and guide everyone’s actions forward Questions that drive this phase: • What is a good vision? • How do we know we have a good vision? • How do we develop a good vision? • What is the best way to communicate our vision to others? Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 87. Vision Statement What is it A Vision Statement provides a short vivid description of your idea in order to inspire, energize, and help others create a mental picture of your target future opportunity. When to use it • To quickly and simply define a new idea, innovation solution, or business opportunity and its desired outcome • To condense the essentials of your idea in a one-minute story • To remind your team and partners what you are trying to build 87Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 88. Sample vision statement 88 Our vision is to create a personal artificial executive assistant that makes sense of volumes of information to help you to make decisions on demand. It is almost impossible to achieve because the transformation of volumes of information requires technologies that we don’t have today (e.g., systematic analysis of any type of information). The timing is right today due to the increasing convergence of technologies in social networking tools, linguistics, and semantic analysis. Precedents of this idea include personal digital assistants and the classic valet. By working with Google, SAP, Pixar, and Microsoft, we will make this vision real in 6 years by . Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 89. How to find answers faster 89 Our vision is to . It is almost impossible to achieve because . The timing is right today due to . Precedents of this idea include . By working with , we will make this vision real in _________ years by . Innovation Leadership Board LLC
  • 90. Digital content aggregation pattern (digital content + content aggregation pattern + sw/device provider) purchased music Applications Market Content Devices purchased device Market provider Customer Content provider New ExperienceNew business model Device provider New Solution New business model SW provider 90
  • 91. CUSTOMER VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS ¥ push order new channel order deliver put to the place 91
  • 93. FUTURE CREATION-BY-DESIGN THINKING Technology Business/Society Future テクノロジーOutlook (IBM GTO) 企業・顧客調査 トレンド、シナリオプランニ ング Future life enabled by advanced technology and societal change 93
  • 94. WHY FUTURE CREATION BY DESIGN THINKING Imagine too far, then difficult to realize Near future, then could not differentiate Integrate from both sides, and create a business case between current and future 94
  • 95. テキスト HIGH-LEVEL BUSINESS CASE Select topics Imagine future Research advanced cases Generate signposts Budget,Scope, Timeframe Vision, creative thinking, collective intelligence Describe business cases Search on Web, Assess future technologies Interpolate between present and future Pickup stories nearest to present as possible business cases 95
  • 96. テキスト NEW METHOD: OVERVIEW ■ “Uncertainty” expressed as “future” ▸Impossible things might be possible in the future ▸When, which level can be achieved ▸Even though they are available, do not know that are accepted by society ■ Interpolate constraints between present and future ▸Present = future + constraints ▸Examine possible mixture of constrains ▸Intermediary steps between present and future are created by resolving constraints ■ Creation of high-level business cases ▸The most immediate intermediary steps are hi-level business cases to be considered 96
  • 97. CASE CASE STUDY: DIGITAL ME RETAIL BANK present Intermediate steps future HIGH-LEVEL BUSINESS CASE Aggregation service Personal aggregation Client application type aggregation Utilize WEB2.0 -Provide standard components for banking -Configure components and create by customers Certificate digitization ▪Standardization of certificate ▪Growth of enterprises with certificate ▪Web2.0 aggregation components standardization Japan/global cases exist, however, they hold the growth Shop receipt digitization ▪Receipt standardization ▪Growth of digitized receipt member’s stores Server type Client type Digital Me Financial service Content digitization ▪Access to digitized contents ▪Link between receipts and contents ▪Security ▪Single-sign on Server type aggregation Digital Me Content service ▪Service platform Retail financial consultation ▪Service platform ▪Service platform Provider type 97

Editor's Notes

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