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2021006 jim spohrer mc gill_precision_convergence_panel v3
Jim Spohrer served as a panelist for a webinar on global value chain resilience hosted by Gary Gereffi. Spohrer is on the board of ISSIP.org and contributes to the Linux Foundation AI and Data Foundation. He retired from IBM in 2021 after a career in speech recognition, service science research, and open source AI. Spohrer posed questions on how trust and resilience are related in global value chains and how artificial intelligence and digital services may impact resilience.
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2021006 jim spohrer mc gill_precision_convergence_panel v3
- 1. Panelist for PrecisionConvergence Webinar Series and Gary Gereffi’s Keynote on Global Value Chain Resilience Policy Jim Spohrer Board of Directors, ISSIP.org Questions: spohrer@gmail.com Twitter: @JimSpohrer LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/ Slack: https://slack.lfai.foundation Presentations on line at: https://slideshare.net/spohrer Thanks to Laurette Dube (McGill) for inviting me to be a panelist for Gary Gereffi’s (Duke) keynote on Global Value Chain Resilience Policy at the Precision Convergence Webinar Series – online (Oct 6, 2021) Highly recommend: Humankind: A Hopeful History By Dutch Historian, Rutger Bregman <- Thanks To Ray Fisk For suggesting this book
- 2. Questions • What factorsincrease/reduce TRUST across the global value chain? How are TRUST and RESILIENCE related in the global value chain? • What will be the impact of the growth of IT-enabled, data-driven, knowledge-intensive, high-value, science-basedSERVICE offerings to resilience in the global value chain? • What will be the impact of increasing ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) capabilities to resilience in the global value chain?
- 3. Jim Spohrer, Boardof Directors, ISSIP.org Jim Spohrer serves on the Board of Directors of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals, and as a contributor to the Linux Foundation AI and Data Foundation. He is a retired IBM Executive since July 2021, and previously directed IBM’s open-source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort, was CTO IBM Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global University Programs. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Christopher Loverlock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline award, Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. Jim was elected and previously served as LF AI & Data Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020- 2021). 3 From 2002 - 2009, Jim co-founded and directed IBM Almaden Service Research helping to establish service science, applying science, technology, and T-shaped upskilling of people to business and societal transformation. Who I am 2021 A big year: (1) 65, (2) award, (3) retired
- 4. What I study ServiceScience and Open Source AI – Trust is key to both Service Science Artificial Intelligence Trust: Value Co-Creation/Collaboration Responsible Entities Learning to Invest Transdisciplinary Community Trust: Secure, Fair, Explainable Machine Collaborators Open Source Communities
- 5. Two disciplines: Twoapproaches to the future Artificial Intelligence is almost seventy-years-old discipline in computer science that studies automation and builds more capable technological systems. AI tries to understand the intelligent things that people can do and then does those things with technology. (https://deepmind.com/about “... we aim to build advanced AI - sometimes known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - to expand our knowledge and find new answers. By solving this, we believe we could help people solve thousands of problems.”) Service science is an emerging transdiscipline not yet twenty-years- old that studies transformation and builds smarter and wiser socoi- technical systems – families, businesses, nations, platforms and other special types of responsible entities and their win-win interactions that transform value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms that build more resilient future versions of themselves – what we call service systems entities. Service science tries to understand the evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities, and then then seeks to improve the quality of life of people (present/smarter and future/wiser) in those service systems. 26-30 July 2015 3rd International Conference on The Human Side of Service Engineering 5 Artificial Intelligence Automation Generations of machines Service Science Transformation Generations of people (responsible entities) Service systems are dynamic configurations of people, technology, organizations, and information, connected internally and externally by value propositions, to other service system entities. (Maglio et al 2009)
- 6. Service & GlobalValue Chain 10/6/2021 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 6 Source: Fed Reserve St. Louis
- 9. Timeline Future ofAI: Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) • Terascale (2017) = $3K • Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) • Recognition (Fast) • Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) • Reasoning (Slow) • Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 9 10/6/2021 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080 2040 2000 1960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 2060 2020 1980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
- 10. Timeline: GDP/Employee 10/6/2021 (c)IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
- 11. Accelerating shift: digitaltransformation and AI/robotics… How will COVID-19 effect the need for and use of robots in a service world with less physical contact? Will robots improve or harm livelihoods/jobs? Robots Rule Retail? Taking away jobs Telepresence Robot World? Adding more jobs Robots at Home? Reducing need to have a job T-shaped (L)earners You will be assigned to a small team to discuss. Please have a team member to take notes of the most important insights and/or questions that emerge from your discussion. Your notes will be crucial for us to create a conference report, send to contact@creatingvalueconf.com What is most probable to happen? What is desirable? Spohrer
- 12. Accelerating shift: Fromemployees to earners in platform society – upskilling (l)earners is key Farrrel D, Grieg F (2014) Online Platform Economy.
Editor's Notes
- #2 Thank-you for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you all today. My contact and this presentation is on slideshare. Title: Future of the AI in a Post-Pandemic Society: A Service Science Perspective
- #4 Here is my brief bio in words… I am a retired IBM executive (since July 2021), and serve on the Board of Directors, of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org) promoting service science as a new transdiscipline, linking industry, academia, and public policy to accelerate value co-creation and capability co-elevation (business and societal transformation to better and better win-win games). Picture 2008: In 2008, Jim directed IBM Almaden Service Research helping to establish service science, applying science, technology, and T-shaped upskilling of people to business and societal transformation. I was IBM’s Director of Cognitive OpenTech – meaning I lead open source AI for the part of IBM which works with software developers globally. As a result of my work in service science, I have won a number of awards, including the Gummesson Service Research Award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic Award, Daniel Berg Service Systems Award, and the PICMET Fellow award for advancing service science.
- #5 For those wondering what the common denominator is between service science and artificial intelligence – it is trust.
- #6 What does it mean to solve automation? Transformation?
- #7 URL https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/february/us-rise-trading-services
- #10 This slide is my version of Moore’s Law – just draw seven verticals every 20 years from 1960 to 2080, and five horizonal lines for $1 to $1T. Computing power is the diagonal lines. Today in 2020, for example, a terascale a million millions instructions per second is available for about$1K and petascale is available for 10M to 100M. Exascale is predicted to be available for $1K in 2060 – we will see – no one knows the future. The yellow line going down is the cost of digital workers, if you think of a CEO buying an AI capability for a particular price this is an important prediction. This can also be interpreted as the apps on your smart phones growing up to become digital workers with a voice interface. What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826 In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million. That's 24.55 million in today's dollars. or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983 Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
- #11 If you are an entrepreneur or CEO you are excited about the drop in cost of digital workers, because that means GDP per employee will continue its exponential increase. Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
- #12 The impact of COVID accelerating innovation in robotics is interesting to monitor as well. This slide links to articles about robots in retail (less human contact), telepresence robots (people operating systems remotely), and robots inhomes (so people do not have to come to house for routine tasks). How will COVID-19 effect the need for and use of robots in a service world with less physical contact? Will robots improve or harm livelihoods/jobs? Robots Rule Retail? Taking away jobs: https://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2020/05/13/the-3-best-in-store-robots-and-why-they-work/#414ae0ca37b2 Employers prefer to deploy robots rather than people for routine jobs in retail, hospitality, travel, education, healthcare, government, manufacturing, farming, and then all industries. Telepresence Robot World? Adding more jobs: https://www.zdnet.com/article/best-telepresence-robots/ Show up when needed and where needed to help in situations of various skill levels – more job opportunities. Robots reduce need for stable identity of service provider, and thus increase the number of job roles that are cost effective for entrepreneurs to provide. Increase the staff I can afford to hire for a task. Better matching people to task. Robots at Home? Reduce need to have a job: https://home-automations.net/top-10-personal-robots-2020/ Don’t need to pay for gardner, chef, repairs, etc. – what if they barter with neighbor robots? Robots lower cost of living, lower need for high-pay jobs. ==== In the news…. Retail - How lockdown is changing shopping for good https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/25/1002168/retail-robots-save-local-store-business-lockdown-pandemic-coronavirus-economic-crisis/ https://medium.com/@jgwoodland/five-ways-in-which-artificial-intelligence-is-accelerating-the-development-of-new-medicines-5a1d31c2dfbb Finance - Millennials Prefer Robot Bankers to Humans, Nordic Data Show https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-24/banker-bots-rake-in-nordic-wealth-business-and-reshape-finance Customer Service - Hello and welcome: robot waiters to the rescue amid virus https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/hello-and-welcome-robot-waiters-to-the-rescue-amid-virus/2020/05/29/59de1e06-a175-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html Technology - Covid-19 Makes the Case for More Meatpacking Robots https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-makes-the-case-for-more-meatpacking-robots/ Who is an expert? A service research scholar who is studying Service Robots is Jochen Wirtz https://twitter.com/JochenWirtz/status/1204641608320184321 https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JOSM-04-2018-0119/full/html https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-_9L9P0AAAAJ&hl=en https://tinyurl.com/ya24mzy7 ==== Register for online event – June 2-3, 2020: https://pontsbschool.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Third_Global_Conference_on_Creating_Value.pdf ==== Practical help: Creating Zoom breakout rooms Here is a link to a 3-minute instruction video. You only need to learn how to: create rooms (with 4 to 5 persons each) Automatically assign the participants (this is a default setting anyway) Set the time how long the rooms will be open (35 minutes). https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/206476093-Getting-Started-with-Video-Breakout-Rooms
- #13 Farrel and Grieg 2014 nicely define labor platforms (doing tasks) versus capital platforms (selling goods or renting assets/assets as a service) for earners. Think of retired people - multiple sources of earning income streams - based on tasks and assets as a income/earning service.