Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting

1. ACCURATE AND TIMELY INSIGHTS
INTO VARIABLE WIND & SOLAR
ENERGY
DEL2INFINITY ENERGY CONSULTING PRIVATE LIMITED
Abhik Kumar Das, Director
Email abhik@del2infinity.xyz / contact@del2infinity.xyz
Mobile +917760989341
www.del2infinity.xyz

2. Wind & Solar Power Forecasting Regulation
 The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), India has
finalized the mechanism for Forecasting, Scheduling and Deviation
Settlement of wind & solar projects at Inter-State level.
 The CERC has issued the Indian Electricity Grid Code (Third
Amendment) Regulations, 2015 (IEGC) and Deviation Settlement
Mechanism and related matters (Second Amendment), Regulations
2015 (DSMR) respectively.
 The mechanism is applicable from November 1, 2015.
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

3. Wind & Solar Power Forecasting Regulation
Key features of the mechanism:
 The mechanism shall be applicable to Wind and Solar generators.
 Scheduling of wind generators have been made mandatory for
aggregated capacity of 50 MW and above.
 The maximum number of revisions has been increased from 8 to 16.
 A new forecast error computation formula has been formulated, which
is: =100*(Scheduled Generation-Actual Generation)/Available Capacity.
 The penalties for deviation have been computed as per Power Purchase
Agreements and shall be levied for deviation beyond +/-15%
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

4. Source: http://www.cercind.gov.in/2015/regulation/SOR7.pdf
Forecast Deviation Charge

5. REVENUE LOSS CAN BE UP TO
30% WITHOUT ‘GOOD’
WIND & SOLAR ENERGY
FORECAST !
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

6.  Del2infinity is founded by
 Abhik Kumar Das (Dual Degree, B. Tech & M. Tech (IIT KGP),2005)
 Dipak Kumar Mukherjee (B.E.(JU),1967)
 Del2infinity works in the domain of Energy Analytics in India & EU
 Del2infinity serves AAAS (Analytics As A Service) to its different clients in India &
abroad
 An integrated and solution oriented approach for every energy analytics
problems
 Del2infinity’s Wind Energy Forecasting solution is capable of doing 24 hours
day ahead wind power forecast with maximum 16 revisions and is tested
over 2500 MW of Wind Farm`.
 Del2infinity’s Solar Energy Forecasting solution is capable of doing 24 hours
day ahead Solar Energy forecast with maximum 16 revisions and is tested
over 200 MW of Solar Farm .
ACCURATE WIND & SOLAR ENERGY FORECASTING & SCHEDULING IS NO MORE EXPENSIVE WITH
DEL2INFINITY ENERGY CONSULTING PRIVATE LIMITED
Del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

7. Del2infinity & it’s Philosophy
Our approach
 Client focussed and solution oriented approach keeping in view the commercial objectives
of the assignment;
 Global reach through close working relationships with reputed global consulting firms;
 Focus on industry expertise as well as traditional and emerging service lines;
 Single point contact for clients;
 To best serve its clients and to build and maintain long-term relationship;
 Timely and commercially viable solution to complex energy domains;
 Affordable and competitive pricing
Our People
 Extensive experience in advising domestic and international clients engaged in energy
sectors
 Combination of technical excellence and keen understanding of industry and service lines
to provide practical and solutions oriented advice
 Backed by a dedicated staff and cutting edge business tools and infrastructure
 Firm Grasp of commercial fundamentals
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

8. Del2infinity Solution for Wind & Solar Energy
 Automatically delivers the wind & solar power forecasts via a customizable web-
based / FTP-based platform
 Proprietary algorithm based on statistical machine learning and pattern recognition
 Tested for over 2,500 MW installed Wind capacity and 200 MW Solar capacity in
India
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

9. Why del2infinity Forecasting?
 India-specific product based on guidelines prescribed by the
Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)
 Does not rely on traditional resource-intensive forecasting
methods
 High Accuracy
 No site installment
Protect Revenue Losses, up to 30%!
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

10. Real Time
Wind Power
Data (<15 min
Resolution)
Real Time Wind
Speed &
Direction data
(<15 min
Resolution)
Other Weather
Parameters
(If available)
NWP 1
NWP 2
NWP 3
Σ
Historical Wind
Power & Speed
Data (<15 min
Resolution)
Σ
Wind Power Forecast
(in 15 min resolution
as per the latest
guidelines prescribed
by Central Electricity
Regulatory
Commission (CERC))
1. Plant Location
2. Turbine
Information
3. Curtailment
Information
del2infinity
P2P
del2infinity
S2P
I
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Del2
S
Y
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T
E
M
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P
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Del2infinity Wind Forecast System

11. || Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | |
contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Real Time
Solar Power
Data (<15 min
Resolution)
Other Weather
Parameters
(If available)
NWP 1
NWP 2
Σ
Historical Solar
Power Data
(<15 min
Resolution)
Σ
Solar Power Forecast
(in 15 min resolution as
per the latest guidelines
prescribed by Central
Electricity Regulatory
Commission (CERC))
1. Plant Location
2. Plant Layout
2. Panel Information
3. Curtailment
Information
del2infinity
P2P
I
N
P
U
T
Del2
S
Y
S
T
E
M
O
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T
P
U
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Del2infinity Solar Forecast System
del2infinity
DNI/GHI
Power Tx

12. Sample Output
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Screenshot of Wind Power Scheduling

13. MARKET VALIDATION
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Users: Energy Generators and Grid Operators
2,765 MW, till date (& going on)
Successfully deployed for renewable energy industry in India
“The forecasting of del2infinity is the best among the vendors we are
working with in terms of accuracy”
–Ramesh Kumar, Manager, Performance Monitoring at Mytrah Energy (India) Limited

14. Del2infinity & Accuracy
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Fig.: Screenshot of 1- Week Forecast for a 25 MW Wind Farm with +/- 15% error
zone display (all calculations based on CERC’s latest guidelines)
In 95% of Time-blocks, forecast power is in +/-15% with 16
revisions tested over total 2.5 GW installed wind capacity

15. Forecasting Performance Analysis
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Instances of wind power
forecast being within +/- 30%
(old regulation as a
comparative purpose only, 8
revision)
Fig.: a) Average wind speed vs forecast wind speed b)Error margin of Wind
speed vs Probability of error in forecast without revision (R0)

16. Aggregated Wind Power Forecasting
( Sample: Karnataka state)
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Low
wind
season
High
wind
season

17. Del2infinity Forecasting Accuracy
(aggregated wind power)
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||
Accuracy: Normalized Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) for different forecast horizons (hours)

18. Forecast Accuracy in Wind Forecast
(16 revision)
Absolute Error Margin Probability (%)
<10% 89.41 +/- 5
< 15% 93.36 +/- 5
15%-25% 4.37 +/- 5
25%-35% 1.16 +/- 5
>35% 1.11 +/- 5
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

19. Other Analytics Service : DNI Predictor for Solar
Forecast
Fig.: Actual and Forecast DNI value at R0 forecast
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

20. Other Analytics Service : Load Forecast
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

21. Other Analytics Service : Power Analytics
|| Accurate Solution for Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting & Scheduling | | contact@del2infinity.xyz ||

22.  Enjoy a free trial of del2infinity Team Support Services to see how
outstanding Wind & Solar Energy Forecasting service can reap rewards for
your company.
 For limited Free Trials* Write to us at contact@del2infinity.xyz
*Terms & Conditions Applicable
Del2infinity Energy Consulting Private Limited
Kolkata | Bangalore | New Delhi
contact@del2infinity.xyz
www.del2infinity.xyz

23. Thank you
del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.
Kolkata | Bangalore | New Delhi
www.del2infinity.xyz || contact@del2infinity.xyz
ACCURATE WIND & SOLAR POWER FORECASTING & SCHEDULING IS NO MORE
EXPENSIVE with
Del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.
For Business enquiries
Dipak Kumar Mukherjee, Director
Email dkm@del2infinity.xyz
Mobile +919339000123
For Technical enquiries
Abhik Kumar Das, Director
Email abhik@del2infinity.xyz
Mobile +917760989341