Wind Turbine Generation Forecasts




15 slides
      1     DONG Energy april 2009
Outline


How do optimize your/the performance of your Wind Parks from birth to
 adult life with respect to the impact of ...
Who are we?
A forecasting centre with 5 core business areas




      Forecasting       Metocean    Wind Power   Numerical...
Sectors and services


                              ConWx- a forecasting centre
     Service Areas
                      ...
Volume and price risks

Risk management and resource planning in connection with all Wind
Business work concerns the follo...
Balancing responsibilty

          - Day a head power forecasts (obligation)
          - 7 days power forecasts (common)
 ...
The needs of today and tomorrow

                              Today needs
           Primary :
            -Balancing res...
How to optimize forecast     and O&M?
A physical model predicts power
from power curve and weather data

…But Power Curves...
Artificial Neural Network Forecasting System
Neural Network:
-Mathematical model
-Solves the problems without
 creating mo...
Operational Output

Output from the operational Wind Turbine Generation System:

• Wind Generation Forecasts +180 hours in...
Others

     Now-casting, load frequency
       control:
     • 3 hours persistence forecasts 60-
       70% better
     •...
Summary

     You get!
                                                This gives you:
     Tailor made power management s...
Thank you




13   DONG Energy april 2009
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ConWx ApS Wind Turbine Generation Forecast

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ConWx ApS Wind Turbine Generation Forecast

  1. 1. Wind Turbine Generation Forecasts 15 slides 1 DONG Energy april 2009
  2. 2. Outline How do optimize your/the performance of your Wind Parks from birth to adult life with respect to the impact of climate? About ConWx Risk in connection with wind parks Balancing Power (short, mid and long term) Power Trading and planning Others It’s all about Weather Risk Management…… 2
  3. 3. Who are we? A forecasting centre with 5 core business areas Forecasting Metocean Wind Power Numerical Energy Trading Consultancy Forecasts Forecasts Weather Forecasts Predictions From Weather Predictions to Business Value 3
  4. 4. Sectors and services ConWx- a forecasting centre Service Areas Renewable lifecycle engagement Wind Parks (experience from ALL offshore parks) -Site Assessments ConWx offers a full range of services -Metocean Forecasts covering the entire lifecycle of renewable -WTG Power Forecasts for +2400 units investment projects, combining in-depth wind industry expertise and best practices Numerical Weather and Wave Predictions in management consulting, forecasting and (global services) site services Energy trading services and forecasts State-of-the-art Wind Turbine Generation Predictions, metocean forecasting and Energy Demand Forecasts numerical weather predictions Forecasting and climatic consultancy The only company with operational experience in power prediction and Water & Environment metocean forecasts for offshore parks Your power is to know 4
  5. 5. Volume and price risks Risk management and resource planning in connection with all Wind Business work concerns the following areas: Planning (volume) Construction (volume) Balancing (volume and price) Grid Operator/TSO (volume) Trading (price) O&M (volume) 5
  6. 6. Balancing responsibilty - Day a head power forecasts (obligation) - 7 days power forecasts (common) - Monthly power forecasts (tomorrow) Uncertainty: •Timing and numerical size of production •1 m/s error gives up to 30% error in production •Error pr turbine/park pr. year: 10-20% (MAPE/yr) WTG Forecasting minimizes balancing challenges => Higher revenue=> Less Co2 emission 6
  7. 7. The needs of today and tomorrow Today needs Primary : -Balancing responsible, “day a head” forecast -System operators, 0-7 days forecasts Secondary: -Short term power trading, intra day -O&M Near Future -Balancing penalty all areas, longer than “day a head” -Now casting in order to optimize LFC -Increased intraday trading intensity -Demand for CO2 reduction This gives higher demands to balancing and O&M 7
  8. 8. How to optimize forecast and O&M? A physical model predicts power from power curve and weather data …But Power Curves varies -With season -With wind direction -Air and sea temperature Season: Vegetation changes Wind direction: Shade, Wake effects and topography Power curve, two periods Temperature: Lower temp=> Source: Sanchez (2006) higher production Using SCADA data as intelligent input to forecasting models improves the basis for daily decissions 8
  9. 9. Artificial Neural Network Forecasting System Neural Network: -Mathematical model -Solves the problems without creating model -Recognition of patterns Learning by trial and error.. Like the Human Brain Data input: -SCADA data -Wind speed -Wind direction Training Input: -2 to 6 month SCADA data -Temperature -6 month hist. NWP’s -Stability Operational Input: -Online SCADA data -Online NWP’s -Others Performance: 1-4% better day a head forecasts 9
  10. 10. Operational Output Output from the operational Wind Turbine Generation System: • Wind Generation Forecasts +180 hours in advance • Granularity: 30 minutes or 1 hour • Update frequency: 5 minutes - 6 hours • Up 3 NWP sources as input (IRIE,WRF and Hirlam) • Percentiles • RAMP forecasts • Graphical presented and transmitted via FTP • Long term forecasts, +32 days in advance • Short term forecasts (10 minutes granularity) • Seasonal Forecasts • Weather parameters • Manually corrections and warnings 10
  11. 11. Others Now-casting, load frequency control: • 3 hours persistence forecasts 60- 70% better • But ConWx system improves this significantly • Based on ANN, MOS, dynamic persistence and others • 0-3 hours a head in time • New forecasts every 5 min. Long term Wind Power Generation Forecasting: • 32 days a head in time • Ensemble runs gives the best probability forecasts 11
  12. 12. Summary You get! This gives you: Tailor made power management system • Better fundament for your •Online power forecasts 180 hr. ahead in daily decisions time • Cost savings •Mid term forecasting system • Increased earnings •Graphical Presentation • Less C02 emission •Turbine Administration Site • Decreased project risks •Statistic presentation •Ramp forecasts •Now-casting system •Long term forecasts The State of the Art and Future secured Wind Power Forecasting System 12
  13. 13. Thank you 13 DONG Energy april 2009

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