Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Power in India

1. Abhik Kumar Das
TECHNICAL PAPER PRESENTATION – 9TH MARCH 2017
Director
Del2infinity Energy Consulting
Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind
and Solar Power in India

2. • Wind and Solar - Clean but Variable
• Variability & intermittency breaks network stability
• Scheduling in Solar & Wind power generation is a
requirement for grid stability
• Regulations regarding Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind
and solar are already proposed by CERC, FOR and State
Regulators

3. Error in Forecast
Where AvC is the available capacity;
and are actual generation and scheduled
generation respectively.
Value of m FOR Gujarat Jharkhand Karnataka MP Odisha Rajasthan TN
Wind (Old) 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10
Wind (New) 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10
Solar (Old) 0.15 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05
Solar (New) 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05

4. Variability in Actual Power
generation
Regulation, m
Measure of Forecast
r = correlation coefficient
of actual and schedule
power generation

5. Forecast Error Distribution
Normalized frequency distribution of forecast error for different days of (A) solar
forecasting and (B) wind forecasting with ‘Single Revision’

6. Penalty due to deviation
Where c(e) is the penalty due to the error and h(e) can be represented as probability of error in
the forecast models.
And is defined as the standard deviation of the error distribution. P(m) is the
probability the error is under no penalty error band

7. Variability in Actual Power
generation
Regulation, m
Measure 1 of Forecast
r = correlation coefficient
of actual and schedule
power generation
Measure 2 of Forecast
: the standard
deviation of the error
distribution
Penalty due to deviation

8. Analysis of

9. Need of revision and Phase in

10. • A good forecasting methodology is not only a solution having the
high forecast accuracy and low penalty due to the deviation, but a
solution to maintain the similar or better accuracy in the minimum
number of intra-day revisions.
• Variability analysis required to minimize the number of revision
• In some cases revision is allowable but chargeable similar to the
scheduling of other energy sources

11. Wind Forecast : 16 Revision

12. Solar Forecast : Single Revision

13. “THANK YOU”