This presentation attempts to create a mathematical model that can be used to estimate the fair market value of HDB resale flats. A regression model from a statisical software package is used to collate publicly available data to arrive at the fair value. In the conclusions, some suggestions are given to home buyers based on results of the study.
2. Record HDB prices THE MORE WE KNOW, THE BETTER 'Consumers will increasingly want such fine-tuned data and transparency will become more crucial in the market.' PROPNEX CHIEF EXECUTIVE MOHAMED ISMAIL HDB Valuation Guide
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6. Pivot Table Summary Count of Resale Price Flat Type Region 1 room 2 room 3 room 4 room 5 room Executive Central 1 5 74 53 30 East 9 105 87 39 16 North 6 77 41 16 5 West 66 23 17 6 Average of Resale Price Flat Type Region 1 room 2 room 3 room 4 room 5 room Executive Central 146000 182000 280470 440068 570790 East 179778 226479 312402 426474 488306 North 168333 247330 389856 511063 601560 West 258300 368813 502235 602500 HDB Valuation Guide
7. Regression validity Multiple R-Square Adjusted StErr of Summary R R-Square Estimate 0.9598 0.9213 0.9190 34209 Degrees of Sum of Mean of F-Ratio p-Value ANOVA Table Freedom Squares Squares Explained 19 8.99E+12 4.73E+11 404.0000 < 0.0001 Unexplained 656 7.68E+11 1.17E+09 HDB Valuation Guide
8. Regression Results HDB Valuation Guide Coefficient Standard t-Value p-Value Regression Table Error Constant 167660.9165 14686.32878 11.4161 < 0.0001 Floor Area 3569.150214 139.2553075 25.6303 < 0.0001 MRT distance -42984.4778 4190.737523 -10.2570 < 0.0001 Flat Age -2682.913129 208.3776486 -12.8752 < 0.0001 Region = North 32906.6484 14461.9506 2.2754 0.0232 Storey = 06 to 10 14994.00035 3122.436104 4.8020 < 0.0001 Storey = 11 to 15 22862.68969 3736.554967 6.1187 < 0.0001 Storey = 16 to 20 53142.22696 7108.729417 7.4756 < 0.0001 Storey = 21 to 25 75246.82328 8546.140409 8.8048 < 0.0001 Storey = 26 to 30 90021.70507 18220.68458 4.9406 < 0.0001 Storey = 31 to 35 117363.6388 34921.75275 3.3608 0.0008 Flat Type = 3 room -22722.91825 4059.153597 -5.5979 < 0.0001 Flat Type = 5 room 29469.49606 6158.543014 4.7851 < 0.0001 Flat Type = Executive 56082.93753 10104.65847 5.5502 < 0.0001 Interaction(Floor Area,Region = East = 1) -1222.252294 75.87903886 -16.1079 < 0.0001 Interaction(Floor Area,Region = North = 1) -786.7754582 154.9356335 -5.0781 < 0.0001 Interaction(Flat Age,Region = East = 1) 963.9129656 249.8308328 3.8583 0.0001 Interaction(Flat Age,Region = West = 1) -611.7219253 287.7137091 -2.1261 0.0339 Interaction(MRT distance,Region = North = 1) -25328.90773 9023.763653 -2.8069 0.0052 Interaction(MRT distance,Region = West = 1) -36269.57061 9083.679846 -3.9928 < 0.0001
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11. DIY Model HDB Price = 167660 + 3569 Floor Area - 42984 MRT – 2682 Flat Age + 32906 North + 14994 Story 6to10 + 29468 5-room HDB Valuation Guide Factors Price 167660 Floor area = 100sqm 356900 MRT distance = 1km 42984 Flat age = 10 years 26820 Region = North 32906 Floor Level = 6 to 10 14994 Type = 5 room 29468 Total $532, 124
