M&M- Q3FY16 Result Update

1. Mahindra & Mahindra
Automobile
Q3 FY16 RESULT ANALYSIS
Buy
Relative Capital Market Strength
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (M&M) reported Rs807.9 cr net profit for Q3FY16,
registering a decline of 14.2% YoY and 12.5% QoQ. Operating income increased
by 16.8% YoY and 19.9% QoQ to Rs11,008.3 cr in line with our estimate of
Rs10,823.2 cr. Healthy growth in revenue was mainly driven by strong 23.9%
YoY growth in automotive segment, while farm equipment segment continued
to witness sluggish growth at 4.4% YoY. Volumes in the automotive segment
were higher by 11.0% YoY while farm equipment segment volumes witnessed
an increase of 4.9% YoY. Realisation/unit for automotive segment improved by
9% YoY, however it declined 2% YoY for farm equipment segment as the
company did not increase the prices of tractors so far this fiscal. Expenses front,
M&M highlighted Rs1000 mn one-off costs related to employee bonus for
earlier quarters, forex and others. Despite this, EBIDTA grew by 25% YoY and
21% QoQ to Rs1,242 cr. Further, various cost control measures and prevailing
soften commodity prices also helped EBIDTA margin to improve to 11.3% in the
reported quarter from 10.5% in Q3FY15 and 11.1% in Q2FY16. Overall, M&M’s
net profit declined 14.2% YoY, however this can be partly attributed to Rs299.3
cr exceptional gain in the same quarter of previous fiscal. While adjusted for
exceptional items, net profit grew by 15.9% during Q3FY16. Its (M&M+MVML)
revenues, EBIDTA, PAT increased 15%,31%,-15% YoY and 19%,21.6%,-16% QoQ
in Q3FY16.
New model launches performance: As announced, M&M has completed all the 9
products launches over the past 15 months namely, KUV100, TUV300, Jeeto,
refreshed XUV500, Thar, Subro, Imperio etc. The latest launched model in
compact utility vehicle category include KUV100 and TUV 300 have been doing
well. Management indicated that the company is getting new orders to the tune
of 350 vehicles per day for KUV100 and current order book has stood at around
18,000 vehicles. TUV300 is currently clocking a monthly volume of around 4000
units, in line with company’s expectations.
• After a series of new launches, we expect a pick up in the utility vehicles (UV)
sales volume as well as M&M’s market share which was declined to below 40%
in 2015 from 47.9% in Q3FY13 owing to the lack of new launches.
• Tractors sales volume is continued to be impacted by sluggish demand from
agriculture sector on account of second successive below normal monsoon. As
the rabi crop sowing has been lower by about 3%, recovery in tractor volume is
not likely to happen in Q4FY16. We expect recovery in tractor volume in
current year amidst expectation of normal monsoon this year after two
consecutive droughts.
• With the improvement in industrial and infrastructure activity, the growth
scenario for commercial vehicles segment (light + medium + heavy) is likely to
revive.
1
Feb 18, 2016
Rating Matrix
CMP Rs1,202
Rating Buy
Target Price Rs1,411
Target Period 12 Months
Upside Potential 17.4%
52 week H/L Rs1,442/1,095
Face value Rs5
Sector Automobile
Category Large Cap
© CHOICE INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH Satish Kumar Sharma | Desk Phone: 022 - 6707 9913 | satish.kumar@choiceindia.com
Particulars (Rs cr) Q3FY16 Actual Our Estimates Var.(%)
Operating
Revenue
11,008.2 10,825.2 1.7%
EBIDTA 1,242.4 1,247.2 -0.3%
Net Profit 807.9 879.6 -8.2%
Shareholding Pattern as on Dec 2015
Particulars Dec'15 Sep'15 Jun'15 Mar'15
Promoters 27.1% 25.6% 25.6% 25.7%
FPIs 39.3% 35.6% 33.0% 37.6%
DIIs 19.8% 19.4% 22.7% 18.5%
Non Insti. 13.7% 13.8% 13.1% 12.9%
Others - 5.6% 5.6% 5.4%
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
12-Feb-15
12-Mar-15
12-Apr-15
12-May-15
12-Jun-15
12-Jul-15
12-Aug-15
12-Sep-15
12-Oct-15
12-Nov-15
12-Dec-15
12-Jan-16
12-Feb-16
Sensex M&M
Valuation and View: We expect pick up in UV segment sales volume on the back
of new launches (KUV 100, TUV 3OO) and gradual recovery in tractor volume on
the expectation of good monsoon. Besides, company’s sustained focus on R&D
and cost control measures and agility to respond quickly to regulatory hurdles
are the other key positive for M&M. Core business is valued at
EV/EBIDTA(11.5)xFY17E stands at Rs1,024 and subsidiaries at a 20% discount to
CMP at Rs387. On the basis of SOTP Valuation, we arrive at a target price of
Rs1,411, which implies 17.4% upside potential to CMP. We kept earning
estimates intact, however, downward revision in the price target was due to the
sharp decline in the CMP of subsidiaries.

2. 2
Source: Choice Broking, Company data
Key Financials (M&M Standalone)
© CHOICE INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Mahindra & Mahindra
Automobile
Particulars (Rs cr) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY Q2FY16 QoQ
Operating Income 11,008.3 9,427.3 16.8% 9,245.6 19.1%
Operating Expenditure 9,765.9 8,433.0 15.8% 8,219.2 18.8%
EBIDTA 1,242.4 994.3 25.0% 1,026.4 21.0%
EBIDTA Margin 11.3% 10.5% 11.1%
Depreciation/Amortisation 295.9 234.4 26.2% 250.0 18.4%
Other Income 10,061.8 8,667.4 16.1% 8,469.2 18.8%
Finance Costs 88.6 84.3 5.1% 485.4 -81.7%
Tax 39.7 43.5 -8.7% 38.1 4.1%
Minority Interest 250.2 157.9 58.5% 300.0 -16.6%
Exceptional Items 62.8 299.3 - -
Net Profit 807.9 942.1 -14.2% 923.7 -12.5%
NPM 7.3% 10.0% 10.0%
EPS Diluted 13.0 15.2 -14.2% 13.7 -5.0%
Segment Wise Revenue
Particulars (Rs cr) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY Q2FY16 QoQ
Automotive Segment 7,428.0 5,995.9 23.9% 6,404.0 16.0%
Farm Equipment Segment 3,583.3 3,431.6 4.4% 2,844.2 26.0%
Segmental details Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16
Farm Equipment
Tractor (Units) 59,714 38,604 62,358 45,246 62,666
Net Sales (Rs cr) 3,472 2,535 3,572 2,844 3,583
Realisation/unit 581,472 656,694 572,854 628,608 571,809
Automotive
Volume (units) 113,400 123,175 109,567 113,132 125,918
Net Sales (Rs cr) 6,111 7,023 6,260 6,404 7,428
Realisation/unit 538,877 570,134 571,334 566,064 589,908
1.5%
6.9%
-9.2%
-13.1%
-3.4%
-1.80%
16.8%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Rscr
Operating Income Trend
Operating Income Growth (YoY)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Volume Turnover
Tractor (Units) Auto Volume (units)

3. 3
Source: Choice Broking, Company data
© CHOICE INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Automobile
Mahindra & Mahindra
Purchase of
Finished
Goods, 24.7%
Cost of
Services & Raw
Materials,
42.7%
Operating &
Manf. Exp. ,
10.5%
Employee
Cost, 5.8%
Operating Expenditure/Sales (Q3FY16)
Purchase of
Finished Goods
17.6%
Cost of
Services & Raw
Materials
49.9%
Operating &
Manf. Exp.
10%
Employee
Cost
6.5%
Operating Expenditure/Sales (Q3FY15)
12.5%
10.6% 10.5%
9.4%
12.7%
11.1% 11.3%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
Rscr
EBIDTA Margins improves in Q3FY16
EBIDTA EBIDTA Margin
881.8
946.6 942.1
550.6
852.2
923.7
807.9
8.7%
9.9% 10.0%
5.8%
8.7%
10%
7.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
Rscr
Q3FY16 PAT stands at Rs807.9 cr
PAT NPM
Conference Call – Key Takeaways:
 The company has completed all the 9 product launches in the current year, as announced earlier. The
full impact of the new launches would be reflected in the financials of FY17.
 The new launches,TUV300 and KUV100 – have done well. TUV300 is currently clocking a monthly
volume of around 4000, in line with company’s expectations.
 KUV100 has current order book of around 18000 vehicles. The company has been receiving new orders
to the tune of 350 vehicles per day. The company would be continuing with the current capacity level
of 5000 per month till August 2016; thereafter, the capacity could be increased to 7500 per month.
 Currently 45% of KUV100 sold is of petrol version.
 The company has effected an increase of 1.7% in selling price YTD.
 The Minimum Import Price on steel is not expected to have much impact on company’s cost structure.
 There has been no increase in selling price of tractors during the current year.
 The company has maintained its leadership position in Pick-up segment (2 to 3.5T) with 70% market share.

4. 4
Source: Choice Broking, Company data
© CHOICE INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Automobile
Improving Demand Scenario of Automobile Industry
The demand scenario of Indian Automobile Industry is gradually reviving after witnessing slowdown over the past two
fiscals driven by improving economic scenario. Improvement in industrial and infrastructure activity is gaining
momentum on the back of key initiatives taken by the new government, while the low inflation has driven RBI to cut
interest rate by 125 basis points since January 2015. Prevailing low commodity prices coupled with a decline in fuel
prices has augured well for the Indian automobile industry. We expect a strong recovery in industry demand in near
future driven by thrust of government given for infrastructure development, easing interest rate in the economy and
increase in income levels and lifestyle aspirations.
We expect pick up in UV segment sales volume on the back of new launches (KUV 100, TUV 3OO) and gradual recovery in
tractor volume on the expectation of good monsoon. Besides, company’s sustained focus on R&D and cost control
measures and agility to respond quickly to regulatory hurdles are the other key positive for M&M. Core business is
valued at EV/EBIDTA(11.5)x of FY17E stands at Rs1,024 and subsidiaries at a 20% discount to CMP at Rs387. On the basis
of SOTP Valuation, we arrive at target price of Rs1,411, which implies 17.4% upside potential to CMP. We kept earning
estimates intact, however, downward revision in the price target was due to the sharp decline in the CMP of subsidiaries.
SOTP Valuation Value/ share (Rs)
Value for core business (M&M+MVML) EV/EBIDTA(11.5)x of FY17E 1,024
Total subsidiaries’ value after 20% discount to CMP 387
Target Price (Rs) 1,411
Mahindra & Mahindra
Relative Valuation
Companies (Rs) CMP 6M R(%) 12M R(%)
M. Cap
Rs mn
EPS BVPS
EBIDTA
Margin (%)
NPM (%)
Atul Auto Ltd. 482 15.8% -15.1% 10,796.8 20.2 53.9 14.2% 8.7%
Escorts Ltd. 120 -24.1% -2.8% 14,278.2 7.2 147.6 4.1% 2.5%
Force Motors Ltd. 2,349 -15.2% 78.8% 30,950.9 115.3 999.2 8.0% 5.4%
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 1,204 -12.5% -0.3% 712,938.0 53.0 323.3 11.3% 8.0%
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 3,706 -19.1% 3.7% 1,119,538.7 156.3 784.7 16.1% 8.6%
Tata Motors Ltd. 301 -15.3% -47.0% 1,022,165.9 22.3 165.6 13.0% 2.9%
Average 1,360.3 -11.7% 2.9% 485,111.4 62.4 412.4 11.1% 6.0%
Companies (Rs mn) P/E (x) P/Bv (x) P/Sales(x)
EV/EBIDTA
(x)
D/E
PAT
(TTM)
EBIDTA
(TTM)
Sales (TTM)
Atul Auto Ltd. 23.9 8.9 2.1 14.2 0.0 451.7 738.8 5,206.8
Escorts Ltd. 16.7 0.8 0.4 11.7 0.3 857.2 1,432.1 34,665.0
Force Motors Ltd. 20.4 2.4 1.1 12.4 0.0 1,519.6 2,261.6 28,244.0
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 22.7 3.7 1.8 16.5 0.2 31,343.1 44,217.7 391,417.5
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 23.7 4.7 2.0 12.8 0.0 47,220.2 87,928.5 546,933.8
Tata Motors Ltd. 13.5 1.8 0.4 4.3 1.3 75,631.9 338,073.6 2,600,177.1
Average 20.1 3.7 1.3 12.0 0.3 26,170.6 79,108.7 601,107.4

5. 5
Source: Choice Broking, Company data
© CHOICE INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Automobile
Profit And Loss Statement Balance Sheet
Particulars (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Net Sales 40,508.5 38,945.4 41,598.3 47,286.7
% Growth 0.2% -3.9% 6.8% 13.7%
Total Revenue 41,226.5 39,794.3 42,412.8 48,279.8
% Growth 0.5% -3.5% 6.6% 13.8%
Staff Costs 2,163.7 2,317.0 2,037.7 2,225.1
% of Net Sales 5.3% 5.9% 4.9% 4.7%
Other Manufacturing/Operating
costs 32,033.4 31,155.1 33,434.7 38,014.0
% of Net Sales 79.1% 80.0% 80.4% 80.4%
Other Expenses 1,590.1 1,300.0 1,333.3 1,499.3
% of Net Sales 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
Total Operating Expenditures 35,787.3 34,772.1 36,805.7 41,738.4
% of Net Sales 88.3% 89.3% 88.5% 88.3%
EBITDA 4,721.2 4,173.3 4,792.5 5,548.4
EBITDA Margin % 11.7% 10.7% 11.5% 11.7%
Growth % 0.6% -11.6% 14.8% 15.8%
Depreciation & Amortisation 863.3 974.9 984.5 1,090.4
EBIT 3,857.9 3,198.4 3,808.0 4,458.0
Financial Charges 259.2 214.3 289.6 299.6
Other Income 718.0 848.9 814.6 993.1
Exceptional Income / Expenses 52.8 335.7 0.0 0.0
PBT 4,369.4 4,168.8 4,333.0 5,151.4
Pre-tax Margin % 10.8% 10.7% 10.4% 10.9%
Tax 611.1 847.8 953.3 1,133.3
Effective Tax Rate % 14.0% 20.3% 22.0% 22.0%
Reported PAT 3,758.4 3,321.0 3,379.8 4,018.1
Net Profit Margin % 9.3% 8.5% 8.1% 8.5%
Growth in Reported PAT % 12.1% -11.6% 1.8% 18.9%
Extrodinary Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted PAT 3,758.4 3,321.0 3,379.8 4,018.1
Shares In Issue 59.0 59.1 59.2 59.2
Adjusted EPS (Basic) 63.7 56.2 57.1 67.9
Growth % 12.1% -11.8% 1.7% 18.8%
Dividend paid* 862.3 879.9 867.3 983.2
Dividend pay out ratio 22.9% 26.5% 25.7% 24.5%
Net profit transferred to Reserves
Acccount 2,896.1 2,441.1 2,512.4 3,034.9
Adjusted PAT incl MVML 3,905.0 3,423.0 3,559.8 4,268.1
Particulars (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Gross Asset 10,796.1 12,354.8 13,739.5 15,796.8
Accumulated Depriciation 4,919.2 5,894.1 6,878.6 7,969.0
Capital WIP 1,228.4 1,647.4 1,722.2 1,957.7
Net Fixed Asset 7,105.4 8,108.1 8,583.1 9,785.5
Investments & Deposits 11,379.8 13,241.6 15,743.0 17,935.0
Current Asset 12,803.4 11,594.8 11,998.3 13,641.0
Cash 2,950.4 2,064.8 2,170.7 2,767.6
Inventories 2,803.6 2,437.6 2,938.6 3,290.6
Trade Debtors 2,509.8 2,558.0 2,462.3 2,861.4
Loans and Advances 4,539.6 4,534.4 4,426.7 4,721.3
Current Liabilities & Provisions 8,766.1 8,868.2 9,434.9 10,567.9
Net Current Asset Excluding Cash 1,087.0 661.8 392.7 305.5
Capital Deployed 22,522.6 24,076.3 26,889.5 30,793.6
Long-term Liabilities and Provisions 5,731.4 4,821.8 5,121.8 5,991.0
Total Non Current Liabilities 5,731.4 4,821.8 5,121.8 5,991.0
Share Capital 295.2 295.7 295.9 295.9
Reserve and Surplus 16,496.0 18,959.4 21,471.8 24,506.7
Total Stock Holder's Equity 16,791.2 19,255.1 21,767.7 24,802.6
Capital Employed 22,522.6 24,076.9 26,889.5 30,793.6
DIFF 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0
Mahindra & Mahindra
Particulars (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Profit before tax 4369.4 4168.8 4333.0 5151.4
Depreciation 871.3 974.9 984.5 1090.4
Interest Expense 259.2 214.3 289.6 299.6
Operating Profit Before WC Changes 5499.9 5358.0 5607.1 6541.4
Changes In WC -1518.7 425.2 269.1 87.3
Gross cash generated from Operations 3981.2 5783.1 5876.2 6628.7
Direct taxes paid 611.1 847.8 953.3 1133.3
Cash Flow from Operations 3370.1 4935.4 4922.9 5495.4
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) (2155.3) (1977.6) (1459.5) (2292.8)
Investments 453.7 (1861.8) (2501.4) (2192.0)
Net Cash Used In Investing Activities (1701.6) (3839.4) (3960.9) (4484.8)
Change in Debt 1385.8 (909.7) 300.0 869.2
Change in Equity 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Dividends Paid (862.3) (879.9) (867.3) (983.2)
Interest Paid (259.2) (214.3) (289.6) (299.6)
Others (763.8) 22.3 0.0 0.0
Net Cash used in Financing Activities (499.5) (1981.0) (856.7) (413.6)
Net Increase in Cash and Cash Equivalents 1169.0 (885.1) 105.3 597.0
Cash and cash equivalents At the
beginning 1781.4 2950.4 2064.8 2170.7
Net Increase in Cash and Cash Equivalents 1169.0 -885.1 105.3 597.0
Cash and cash equivalents At the end 2950.4 2065.3 2170.1 2767.7
Cash balance as per balance sheet 2950.4 2064.8 2170.7 2767.6
difference 0.0 0.5 -0.6 0.1
Particulars (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets (ROA) 12.0% 10.1% 9.3% 9.7%
Return on Equity (ROE) 22.4% 17.2% 15.5% 16.2%
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 17.1% 13.3% 14.2% 14.5%
Dupont Analysis-ROE Decomposition
PAT/PBT (Tax Efficiency) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
PBT/EBIT (Interest Burden) 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2
EBIT/Sales (OPM) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sales/Total Assets (Asset Turnover) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
TA/NW (Financial Leverage) 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
ROE 22.4 17.2 15.5 16.2
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
Acid Test Ratio 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Efficiency Ratios
Assets Turnover Ratio 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
Working Capital Turnover Ratio 10.0 14.3 16.2 15.4
F.A. Turnover Ratio 5.7 4.8 4.8 4.8
C.A. Turnover Ratio 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5
Debtors Velocity 22.6 24.0 21.6 22.1
Margin Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 11.7% 10.7% 11.5% 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.8% 10.7% 10.4% 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 9.3% 8.5% 8.1% 8.5%
Growth Ratios YoY (%)
Net Sales 0.2% -3.9% 6.8% 13.7%
EBITDA 0.6% -11.6% 14.8% 15.8%
Adj.PAT 12.1% -11.6% 1.8% 18.9%
Adj.EPS 12.1% -11.8% 1.7% 18.8%
Working Ratios (Days)
Inventory 25.3 22.8 25.8 25.4
Debtors 22.6 24.0 21.6 22.1
Net Working Capital Excluding Cash 1087.0 661.8 392.7 305.5
Per Share (Rs.)
Adj.EPS 63.7 56.2 54.4 64.7
CEPS 78.3 72.6 70.3 82.3
DPS 14.6 14.9 14.0 15.8
BVPS 284.5 325.6 350.5 399.4
Cash Per Share 50.0 34.9 35.0 44.6
Valuation Parameters
P/E 14.3 22.3 22.1 18.6
P/CEPS 11.6 17.2 17.1 14.6
P/BV 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.0
EV/EBIDTA 12.0 18.4 16.2 14.0

6. 6
Disclaimer
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Choice’s Rating Rationale
The price target for a large cap stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over next 12 months. For a
stock to be classified as Outperform, the expected return must exceed the local risk free return by at least 5% over the next
12 months. For a stock to be classified as Underperform, the stock return must be below the local risk free return by at least
5% over the next 12 months. Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral.
BUY Absolute Return >15%
Accumulate Absolute Return Between 10-15%
Hold Absolute Return Between 0-10%
Reduce Absolute Return 0 To Negative 10%
Sell Absolute Return > Negative 10%
Coverage History
Date Recommendation CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs)
18-Feb-16 Buy 1,202 1,411
07-Nov-15 Buy 1,248 1,437
12-Aug-15 Hold 1,339 1,441
03-Jun-15 Buy 1,202 1,375
06-Apr-15 Buy 1,200 1,419
Institutional Equity Team
Name Designation Email id Contact No.
Ajay Kejriwal President ajay@choiceindia.com 022- 6707 9850
Sumeet Bagadia Head of Research sumeet.bagadia@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9830
Amit Singh VP - Institutional Sales amit.singh@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9852
Devendra Gaikwad Sr. Manager - Institutional Sales devendra.gaikwad@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9877
Rajnath Yadav Research Analyst rajnath.yadav@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9912
Satish Kumar Research Analyst satish.kumar@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9913
Kunal Parmar Research Associate kunal.parmar@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9982
Amit Pathania Research Associate amit.pathania@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9979
Vikas Chaudhari Research Associate vikas.chaudhari@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9988
Trirashmi Ghoderao Research Advisor trirashmi.ghoderao@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9972
Neeraj Yadav Research Advisor Neeraj.yadav@choiceindia.com 022 - 6707 9988
Satish Kumar
Digitally signed by Satish Kumar
DN: cn=Satish Kumar, o=Choice Equity
Broking Pvt. Ltd., ou=Research Analyst,
email=satish.kumar@choiceindia.com, c=US
Date: 2016.02.18 11:02:08 +05'30'