1. Disaggregated Scenarios for
Demand Studies (DS4DS)
Steven Firth, Simon Taylor, Chao Wang
School of Civil and Building Engineering
Loughborough University
UKERC Annual Assembly
June 2012

2. Results generated…
 This map (right) shows the annual heat
demand for domestic buildings per unit
land area (kWh/m2/year) for 1km x 1km
grid squares.
 The value assigned to each grid square represents
the total heat demand required to satisfy the space
and hot water heating needs of all domestic
buildings located within the grid square.
 Further 1 km x 1 km datasets
 Heat demand for non-domestic buildings
 Demand for (non-heating) electrical power in
domestic and non-domestic buildings
 Transport energy used by occupants of domestic
buildings
 Extensions of the above to 2050 in 5-year steps
using UKERC scenarios
 www.ds4ds.org
 UKERC Energy Data Centre
Legend
Heat demand per unit land area
kWh/m
2
/year
Below 0.03 (n=63,366)
0.03 - 0.1 (n=53,081)
0.1 - 0.3 (n=65,726)
0.3 – 1 (n=27,231)
1 – 3 (n=11,694)
3 – 10 (n=10,346)
10 – 30 (n=8,015)
Above 30 (n=393)

3. Things are never as easy as they seem…
 DECC data
 Unallocated data and combined LSOAs and MSOAs (due to
confidentiality requirements)
 Quality (MSOAs that apparently cross LA boundaries)
 Plausibility
 Spatial allocation (some LA, MSOA, LSOA)
 Conversion to ‘energy services’ variables
 Scenario development
 Sub-national scenario predictions

4. It’s a fast-moving field…

5. A year is not a long time…
 Publications planned
 Paper #1: [title]
 Paper #2: [title]
 Further work
 The SECURE project (EPSRC-funded led by Newcastle
University)
 Contact: s.k.firth@lboro.ac.uk

6. UK Energy Research Centre
+44 (0)20 7594 1574
www.ukerc.ac.uk