Gsn Retreat Feb 8


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Evolving Internet architectures and impact on GHG emissions

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  • USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ Arctic Climate Change may be at tipping point – Globe and Mail -Sept 2009 We thought by 2050, multi-year [sea] ice would be cut in half,” said Mr. Stewart from Ottawa. “Well, it happened in 2007.”
  • Future projections from Gartner
  • Building a zero carbon ICT infrastructure Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
  • Gsn Retreat Feb 8

    1. 1. The Potential Future Technical and Social Global Impact of GSN Building a zero carbon economy through ICT Bill St. Arnaud [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
    2. 2. Climate Forecasts MIT <ul><ul><li>MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>11C increase in Northern Canada </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years </li></ul></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Global Average Temperature
    4. 4. 2008 second warmest year ever
    5. 5. Climate Change is not reversible <ul><li>Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed </li></ul><ul><li>GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate </li></ul><ul><li>Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions </li></ul>All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
    6. 6. Climate tipping points <ul><li>USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. </li></ul><ul><li>Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “ </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint is Roughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! <ul><li>ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US ( ) </li></ul><ul><li>Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity </li></ul>
    8. 8. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 Data Centers Are Low Hanging Fruit Telecom & Internet fastest growing PCs Are Biggest Problem
    9. 9. Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet <ul><li>Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet </li></ul><ul><li>About 37 percent of the carbon footprint of the entire information and communication technology sector (ICT) in 2007 was due to the energy consumption of telecom infrastructure and devices, according to the Climate Group (14 percent came from data centers, and 49 percent came from PCs and peripherals). </li></ul><ul><li>Contrast that with telecom’s carbon footprint figure in 2002 which was 28 percent of ICT’s carbon footprint. </li></ul>
    10. 10. Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG <ul><li>Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-end” Internet to information Internet </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users </li></ul><ul><li>New Internet is based on connecting users to information </li></ul><ul><li>Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>C. Labovitz, et al  &quot;ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet </li></ul>
    11. 11. Traditional Internet Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider with multiple servers Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Thousands of miles Fiber Networks
    12. 12. Information Internet Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Cloud CDN Content hosted in ACI Nearby
    13. 13. New Internet <ul><li>Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end” </li></ul><ul><li>Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development </li></ul><ul><li>Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last tower” - </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stay tuned for upcoming paper </li></ul>
    14. 14. IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%
    15. 15. <ul><li>Half of ICT consumption is data centers </li></ul><ul><li>50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* </li></ul><ul><li>By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* </li></ul><ul><li>During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption* </li></ul><ul><li>Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) </li></ul>Growth Projections Data Centers Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
    16. 16. Government and University CIOs have big responsibility <ul><li>Public sector is one of the biggest consumers of electricity in Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Upwards of 50% of government and university electricity is for ICT </li></ul><ul><li>US government building data centers where each one consume same amount of power as city of Ottawa </li></ul><ul><li>Demand for Government ICT services expected to grow </li></ul>
    17. 17. <ul><li>Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy reduction strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If you emit above your “cap” you are required to purchase offsets at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by 2025. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kerry-Boxer more agrressive reduction targets </li></ul>US Climate Legislation
    18. 18. State Climate Action <ul><li>US STATES 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>72% Have Climate Action Plans </li></ul><ul><li>42% Have GHG Reduction Targets </li></ul><ul><li>66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade </li></ul>SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009
    19. 19. Public Sector to be carbon neutral by 2010 in BC <ul><li>British Columbia was first government to introduce carbon tax in Western Hemisphere </li></ul><ul><li>Provincial Government in province of British Columbia has mandated all public sector institutions to be carbon neutral by 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Other provinces exploring to implement the same policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Zealand has also made the same requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Many universities and businesses are adopting voluntary carbon neutrality objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell, Cisco, Google etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>This will have big impact on CIOs </li></ul>22
    20. 20. Obama orders 28% reduction in Government GHGs <ul><li>Will reduce Federal energy use by the equivalent of 646 trillion BTUs, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>equal to 205 million barrels of oil, and taking 17 million cars off the road for one year. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>This is also equivalent to a cumulative total of $8 to $11 billion in avoided energy costs through 2020. </li></ul><ul><li>Other governments around the world expected to follow </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maybe even Canadian government? </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. <ul><li>Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. </li></ul><ul><li>The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. </li></ul><ul><li>If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton </li></ul>GHG Regulation in British Columbia SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
    22. 22. Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660
    23. 23. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA <ul><li>The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC . </li></ul><ul><li>It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user
    25. 25. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only <ul><li>30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources </li></ul><ul><li>How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ebbing wind or setting sun </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks </li></ul><ul><li>Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures <ul><li>Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>45% maximum savings in energy costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
    27. 27. IEEE Standard GHG from Hydro and Wind Power Projects <ul><li>The IEEE has begun work on a standard which will help hydro- and wind-power projects calculate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission credits. </li></ul><ul><li>The standard, IEEE P1595(TM), &quot;Standard for Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emission Credits from Small Hydro and Wind Power Projects, and for Grid Baseline Conditions,&quot; will establish an internationally acceptable basis for measuring, evaluating and quantifying the eligible, real, measurable, verifiable, and unique reduction in CO2 emissions attributable to the specific generation technologies of wind power and small hydro, for use in emissions trading systems. </li></ul><ul><li>In addition, the standard will help provide an answer to the generic question, how can one country or jurisdiction to a greenhouse gas emissions trade be assured and satisfied that it is getting real and true value for a purchased GHG emissions credit from another country or jurisdiction. </li></ul><ul><li>The standard will use Project Protocols for Wind Power; Small Hydro and Grid Baseline established by Natural Resources Canada as its seed documents. </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
    28. 28. What are carbon offsets? <ul><li>Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064) </li></ul><ul><li>Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two types of markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI </li></ul></ul></ul>
    29. 29. Transferring Alberta’s Wealth to the rest of Canada <ul><li>PM Harper has committed reduction of 20% CO2 by 2020 from 2006 baseline </li></ul><ul><li>Government will need to collect $40 -$70 Billion in carbon taxes or cap and trade </li></ul><ul><li>About half the revenues will go to purchasing international offsets </li></ul>
    30. 30. Three approaches to a better planet <ul><li>Carbon Neutral </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempt to reduce CO2 by undertaking activities that balance our carbon footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Cap and trade, planting trees, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Zero Carbon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempt to reduce directly our carbon footprint as close as possible to zero </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Use of renewable power </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon Positive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempt to reduce CO2 greater than our carbon footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Carbon absorbing roof tiles, carbon rewards or gCommerce </li></ul></ul>
    31. 31. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce” <ul><li>Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc </li></ul>
    32. 32. Final remarks <ul><li>The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Think carbon, not energy </li></ul><ul><li>We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks </li></ul><ul><li>Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources </li></ul>
    33. 33. Thank you <ul><li>More information </li></ul><ul><li>List server on Green IT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send e-mail to </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>