Stanford Synchrotron


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Climate change will have a big impact on how we carry out big science. Remote instrumentation to access instruments located at renewable energy sites will be critical

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Stanford Synchrotron

  1. 1. Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Synchrotrons and Remote Instrumentation Bill St. Arnaud CANARIE Inc – [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
  2. 2. Climate Forecasts MIT <ul><ul><li>MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>11C increase in Northern Canada </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Most of Canada was under 2-3 km ice </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. 2008 second warmest year September 2009 warmest ever
  4. 4. <ul><li>80/50 rule – 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>(Commitment made by G8 countries) </li></ul>j 15 - 20 tons/person 1 ton/person 2008 2050 ? 2100 2 tons/person Source: Stern 2008 Our Challenge
  5. 5. ICT and Cyber-infrastructure and CO2 emissions* <ul><li>It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry. </li></ul><ul><li>ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling about every 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as a SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon </li></ul><ul><li>Typical university produces 200,000 – 500,000 metric tons CO2 per year of which 100,000 – 300,000 tons is from Cyber-infrastructure and ICT </li></ul><ul><li>Back of envelope estimates suggests Higher Ed in US produce 5-10% of all emissions </li></ul>*An Inefficient Tuth: 6
  6. 6. Growth Projections Data Centers <ul><li>Half of ICT consumption is data centers </li></ul><ul><li>By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* </li></ul><ul><li>During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption* </li></ul><ul><li>Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) </li></ul><ul><li>Universities and major research facilities major consumers of power </li></ul>Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
  7. 7. Impact on Big Instruments and CI <ul><li>Already in the UK – Cyber-infrastructure is the largest emitter of CO2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Big science instruments like accelerators and synchrotrons are major energy consumers and already schedule experiments on a seasonal basis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. CERN runs experiments only in summer time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. FERMI runs experiments only in winter </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CERN is in negotiations with Norway to relocate data facilities to that country </li></ul><ul><li>Big science face huge challenge with increase cost of power and CO2 emissions </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Average” increase in electricity costs for businesses and institutions will be 60% with cap and trade </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organizations that use electricity from coal fired power plants will see significantly higher costs (by as much as 3 times current prices) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30% of electricity will come from non carbon sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Utilities will be required to spend 16% revenues on energy reduction strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If you emit above your “cap” you are required to purchase offsets at $11-$15 per ton in 2012 and roughly double in price by 2025. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More aggressive CO2 reduction targets then Waxman-Markey (20% by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ EPA has proposed a rule that requires mandatory reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from larges sources in the United States…. that emit 25,000 metric tons or more” </li></ul>Federal Climate Legislation
  9. 9. Carbon Footprint by state
  10. 10. State GHG Targets 2009 SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 42% of States Have Existing GHG Reduction Targets
  11. 11. GHG Regulation in British Columbia <ul><li>Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. </li></ul><ul><li>The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. </li></ul><ul><li>If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton </li></ul>SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
  12. 12. The Cost of Regulation: The University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: SOURCE : UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660
  13. 13. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency <ul><li>Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes </li></ul><ul><li>But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CI facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Remote instrumentation will be critical </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can be easily reached by an optical network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CI is only sector ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Remote instrumentation will be critical </li></ul></ul>Building a zero carbon CI infrastructure
  15. 15. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA <ul><li>The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC . </li></ul><ul><li>It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Many examples already Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user
  17. 17. Grand Challenge – Building robust CI services using renewable energy only <ul><li>30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources </li></ul><ul><li>How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ebbing wind or setting sun </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks </li></ul><ul><li>Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. CANARIE Green-IT Pilot <ul><li>$3m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot testbed </li></ul><ul><li>Two objectives: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or equivalent in services) to IT departments and university researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California, Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia </li></ul>25
  19. 19. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures <ul><li>Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>45% maximum savings in energy costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Computing for the future of the planet </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. <ul><li>Business plan for a Canada-California Consortium for a Zero carbon Internet; </li></ul><ul><li>Regroup researchers in computer science, electrical & computer engineering, sociology, business and economics; </li></ul><ul><li>Create an R&D environment and identify funding to support the consortium in: </li></ul>University R&D: CCSIP <ul><ul><li>University-based “living ICT laboratories” test beds that demonstrate how ICT can mitigate GHG; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Events to raise the awareness of the benefits of the application of ICT for carbon minimization; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implement an international repository for data and best practices related to ICT’s carbon footprint and applications to reduce GHG. </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. What are carbon offsets? <ul><li>Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064) </li></ul><ul><li>Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two types of markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>In regulated markets all big emitters such as power plants, steel mills, universities , etc must purchase permits based on cap and trade </li></ul>
  22. 22. The Carbon Economy <ul><li>$500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>$100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>US market estimated at $700 billion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Obama’s cap and trade (Waxman-Markey) bill will force emitters to spend $1.25 on carbon offsets for every $1.00 on emission permits at $ 1billion per year </li></ul>Source: ClimateCheck 20
  23. 23. Do your carbon inventory NOW!! <ul><li>You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions </li></ul><ul><ul><li> provides eTraining </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe </li></ul><ul><li>At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A lot depends on details of Obama’s cap and trade </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral </li></ul></ul>19
  24. 24. Policy approaches to reducing CO2 <ul><li>Carbon taxes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Politically difficult to sell </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cap and trade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Useful for big emitters like power companies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Addresses only supply side of CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon Neutrality imposed by law </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing in popularity especially as protests over gas tax escalates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But there may be an additional approach…. </li></ul>28
  25. 25. Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce” <ul><li>Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc </li></ul>29
  26. 26. Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact
  27. 27. Virtualization is key <ul><li>Movies and music delivered over Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google docs, ESERI </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In many homes electronic devices consume more power than traditional appliances </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>MIT’s Sixth sense
  28. 28. Digital vs Traditional appliances
  29. 29. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX <ul><li>One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Free Wifi on Buses <ul><li>There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys). </li></ul><ul><li>In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps. </li></ul><ul><li>Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>32
  31. 31. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure <ul><li>Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs) </li></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill </li></ul><ul><li>Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output </li></ul><ul><li>Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play </li></ul>33
  32. 32. Final remarks <ul><li>The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Think carbon, not energy </li></ul><ul><li>We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks </li></ul><ul><li>Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources </li></ul>
  33. 33. Thank you <ul><li>More information </li></ul><ul><li>List server on Green IT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Send e-mail to </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>