Emerging need for Agribusiness research from a global perspective
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Agribusiness is a sector comprising all upstream and downstream industries involved in the production of agricultural and food products (Strecker et al. 1996). Aggro business is such an important global ecosystem yet we need to understand the trend and play to ensure thy are risk free.
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Emerging need for Agribusiness research from a global perspective
- 1. Emerging need for Agribusiness research from a global perspective Dr David Bozward Head of The School of Business & Entrepreneurship
- 2. The Royal Agricultural University (RAU) A specialist land-based university in the heart of the UK
- 3. Initiation Culmination Meat & Poultry Processors Food Processors Fruit & Vegetable Diary Companies Confection ary & Sugar Companies Live or Fresh Frozen Mills Farm & Ranches Diaries Fisheries Growers / Tree Farms Lumber Importers Retailers By- Products Manufact urers Processing Snack Companies Grocery WholesaleTextiles Feedstock Biofuels Fiber Retailers Retailers Apparel Grocery Retailers Restauran ts Seafood & Fish Markets Beverage Wholesale Markets Water Waste Grains & Seeds, Fertilizers, Chemicals, Horticulture, Fishing/Fishery Suppliers Households, Consumers, Users, International Trade Payment Technology Adapted from: Van Fleet, D. (2016). What is Agribusiness? A Visual Description. Amity Journal of Agribusiness, 1(1), 1-6.
- 6. Production • Innovation (AgTech) • Gene editing e.g. CRISPR • Internet of Things (IoT) • Environment, Sustainability and Governance (ESG)
- 7. Covid-19 Changes • All Business is Internet First • Supply Chains Broke • Consumers are changing diets: Less fat, diary, meat • Highlighted: Over weight, Obesity • Buy Local • Direct from farmer, farm shop • Fast Food Delivery grows • In the UK 7.5 billion food deliveries were made last year (125 per person per year) • Supermarket • Weekly Shop / Not daily visit • Online purchase & Delivery (Doubled)
- 9. Current Trends – Technology • Food delivery startups • Data for retail • Plant-based startups • Digital Native Vertical Brands • Urban farming • Trust between agribusinesses and consumers • Robots in production and delivery • Nutritional personalisation • Cloud Computing, SAAS, IOT • Power Generation • Zero Emissions • E-Mobility https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle
- 10. Blockchain
- 12. Headlines from around the world • Free vs Tariff Trade • U.S.-China Relations Remain Tenuous • Immigration Controls • Europe and Brexit • Volatility in the Middle East • Unrest in Latin America • Global Food Security
- 13. Trade Routes are changing • Emerging economies are now the growth markets: BRIC, N11 • New Business Models • New Trade Zones
- 14. UK Food Imports - 2018 Country Import (US$ Thousand) 1 France 4,210,785.20 2 Netherlands 3,727,706.86 3 Germany 3,721,362.89 4 Ireland 2,928,160.70 5 Italy 2,759,408.78 6 Belgium 2,269,271.42 7 Poland 1,666,205.99 8 Spain 1,640,174.26 9 United States 1,177,547.73 10 Thailand 894,990.54 11 Denmark 867,912.66 12 Argentina 707,191.62 13 China 406,746.52 14 Australia 362,893.08 15 Brazil 355,836.48 16 New Zealand 334,460.66 17 Chile 270,628.71 18 Austria 266,455.31 19 Sweden 264,230.49 20 Portugal 247,929.05 21 Turkey 237,245.11 22 Cote d'Ivoire 237,122.38 23 Canada 225,419.11 24 South Africa 223,203.40 25 Mexico 219,643.41 26 Hungary 218,888.08 27 Greece 196,655.03 28 India 176,826.85 Region Percentage supplied to the UK UK 50% EU 30% Africa 4% North America 4% South America 4% Asia 4% Rest of Europe 2% Australasia 1%
- 15. The Commonwealth accounted for 8.7% of the UK's total trade in 2018 Commonwealth
- 16. Trade and Consumption are linked
- 17. Consumption
- 18. Global Mega Trends • Urbanization: 55.7% Cities, Regions, Corridors • Generation Y, Z • Ageing Population (20% of population) • Rise of the Middle Class: 1B people
- 19. Consumption Trends – Micro • Clean Label shift / Wellness ingredients • Natural, Ethical, Enhanced, Less of, Dietary • 70% of respondents always, frequently or occasionally purchased foods • Superfood Ingredients • CBD oil and tea • Get your probiotics fix from fermented foods • Going vegan or vegetarian • Currently 12% of the UK population • Veganuary 2020 had 400,000 people sign up ~1% of the population • Close to a third (32%) said that the main benefit of eating less meat is that it “helps to improve health”. • Going Plastic Free
- 20. The Current Trends – UK Agri-Food Trade 2017 exports £billion imports £billion Fruit and veg 1.2 11.1 Meat 1.8 6.7 Beverages 7.4 5.7 Cereals 2.1 3.9 Dairy & eggs 1.8 3.2 Fish 1.9 3.2 Misc 2.0 3.2 Coffee, tea, cocoa etc. 1.5 3.8 Animal feed 1.4 2.2 Oils 0.6 2.1 Sugar 0.4 1.3
- 21. CarbonFootprint
- 22. Supply Chain Low carbon footprint foods and supply chain
Editor's Notes
- Thanks You name of journal: International Journal of Agribusiness & Plantation Management Such an important time, Changing political, technology, social environmental and economic times
- Established in 1845, with 25 Students. The first agricultural college in the English speaking world Granted Royal Charter Today Around 1,100 students Four academic schools Eight partner colleges 17,000 alumni Our students join us from around the globe – we currently have students from 41 different countries studying with us. We are fortunate to be located in a beautiful campus in the Cotwolds in the heart of the British countryside. The cities of Bath, Bristol and Oxford are all within an hour’s drive of the University and London is less than 90 minutes away by train.
- Agribusiness is a sector comprising all upstream and downstream industries involved in the production of agricultural and food products (Strecker et al. 1996). Agrgri business is such an important global ecosystem Taken from Van Fleet, D. (2016). What is Agribusiness? A Visual Description. Amity Journal of Agribusiness, 1(1), 1-6. My first message is that this is a very important area across the world and we see: 13,300 research papers this year (2020) in agribusiness 4,350 india agribusiness 750 plantation Management Why? • Analytics and Decision Sciences • Developments in Emerging Economies • Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Value Chain • Extension Services and Management • Finance and Accounting • Human Resource Management and Organisational Behaviour • International Business and Trade Relations • Marketing and Consumer Behavior • Production, Operations and Logistics Management • Rural Development, Livelihoods and Sustainability • Strategy, Governance and Public Policy • Technology Management
- So what are the industry trends which are driving this research?
- higher productivity mean access to global markets and prices Economic of scale
- The growth of Brazil's agribusiness has been inexorable and now dominates the global trade of soy, corn, coffee, asparagus, orange juice, sugar, chicken, leather, beef, cashews and more. Gene Editing In 2006, the countries that grew 97 per cent of the global transgenic crops were the USA (53%), Argentina (17%), Brazil (11%), Canada (6%), India (4%), China (3%), Paraguay (2%) and South Africa (1%). The majority of these crops were herbicide- and insect-resistant soya beans, corn, cotton, canola and alfalfa. In addition, for vegetable oil, representing one of the world's most important food commodities with a current annual production of 65 million tonnes, through r-DNA technology, the nutritive value (e.g. soya bean oil containing 80% oleic acid) and oxidative stability can be improved. Currently, GMOs are primarily an indirect food source, as the dominant crops in commercial use are used in livestock feed and food processing, and GM fish or livestock are not commercially available for food consumption.
- Short term Shock trends Food Policy Food processing
- Top trends / Now and next .com Systemic financial collapse Global tarde collapse Global panademic virus Oil price shock ?Major Chinese slowdown ?Failure to treat obesity ?Major sovereign debt default
- https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle https://luxe.digital/business/digital-luxury-ranking/best-digital-native-luxury-brands/
- The trade wars may herald a move from trade deals between trading blocks, and toward more bilateral deal, such as the recent (preliminary) deal between China and the U.S. and the coming negotiations between the U.K. and the rest of the world post-Brexit. Trade complexity and the shift in commodity trading from the U.S., combined with a desire for transparency, is driving trade away from traditional commodity markets such as Chicago toward decentralized online transactions, with blockchain to secure the transactions. The blockchain technology allows peer-to-peer transactions to take place transparently and without the need for an intermediary like a bank (such as for cryptocurrencies) or a middleman in the agriculture sector. By eliminating the need for a central authority, the technology changes the way that trust is granted – instead of trusting an authority, trust is placed in cryptography and peer-to-peer architecture. It thus helps restore the trust between producers and consumers, which can reduce the transaction costs in the agri-food market. The blockchain technology offers a reliable approach of tracing transactions between anonymous participants. Fraud and malfunctions can thus be detected quickly. Moreover, problems can be reported in real-time by incorporating smart contracts (Haveson et al., 2017; Sylvester, 2019). This helps address the challenge of tracking products in the wide-reaching supply chain due to the complexity of the agri-food system. The technology thus provides solutions to issues of food quality and safety, which are highly concerned by consumers, government, etc. The blockchain technology provides transparency among all involved parties and facilitates the collection of reliable data. Blockchain can record every step in a product’s value chain, ranging a product’s creation to its death. The reliable data of the farming process are highly valuable for developing data-driven facilities and insurance solutions for making farming smarter and less vulnerable. https://stir-tea-coffee.com/features/blockchain-an-enabler-for-the-tea-industry/
- https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8282/CBP-8282.pdf
- Generation X, the age cohort born before the 1980s but after the Baby Boomers; Generation Y, or Millennials, typically thought of as those born between 1984 and 1996; and Generation Z, those born after 1997
- About to have a recession, so food consumption spending is not likely to go down.
- Coffee Sales increased 17% 2014-2019 Tea Sales increased 4.7% annually https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee Britain today is a nation of coffee drinkers as much as tea lovers, usage of each standing at four out of five adults. Retail sales of coffee are expected to reach 69 million kg in 2019, up 8% since 2014, while inflation and trading up have fuelled value growth of 17% over the period to £1.27 billion. While instant coffee dominates with a 65% value share, ground coffee, beans and pods continue to gain ground. Promisingly for the longer term, these and instant coffee mixes are engaging younger age groups with the market, standard instant coffee holding less appeal for them than older groups. https://www.nationalteaday.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Modern-Tea-Trends-Report.pdf https://www.statista.com/outlook/30020000/156/tea/united-kingdom Revenue in the Tea segment amounts to US$1,941.2m in 2020. The market is expected to grow annually by 4.7% (CAGR 2020-2025). In global comparison, most revenue is generated in China (US$78,699m in 2020). In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$28.60 are generated in 2020. The average per capita consumption stands at 1.2 kg in 2020.
- Carbon Footprint Ltd estimates that two small avocados in a packet has a CO2 footprint of 846.36 grams 324g to 1 124kg CO2e/kg of bananas a loose tea which you drink at a tea lounge has about 20g CO2 per cup. As a reference point, the carbon footprint of a cup of beer is 374g, a can of Coca Cola is 129g a cup of cow's milk is about 225g
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/visualising-the-greenhouse-gas-impact-of-each-food-1028890938 Low carbon – plantation crops?