Presentation by David Earnshaw, CEO of Burson-Marsteller Brussels, on the 2014 changes in the European Union.

1. The democratic (r)evolution of 2014 and
what it means for EU politics:
process, positions and people
David Earnshaw // Burson-Marsteller Brussels
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3. European political parties
nominate Presidential
candidates
European Youth
Event
(9/5 Strasbourg)
FEBRUARY/
MARCH 2014
EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS
22-25 MAY
23/24 April
2014
GERMAN ELECTION
22/9/2013
CONFIRMATION HEARINGS OF
COMMISSIONERS-DESIGNATE
01/9/2014
26-27 JUNE
2 JUNE – 27
JUNE
Constituent meetings
of EP party groups
EP plenary
session
15-18/9/2014
1-3 JULY
EP Constituent session
(election of EP officerholders)
2014-2019
Commission
enters office
1/11/2014 - 2019
OCTOBER 2014
14-17 JULY
EP Session:
Election of
Commission
President
PENTECOST
5-9 JUNE
26-30 MAY
ASCENSION
Last EP plenary
session
EUROPEAN COUNCIL
Nomination of Commission
President
Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries:
13-16/1, 3-6/2, 24-27/2, 10-13/3, 2-3/4,
14-17/4
October plenary:
investiture of
Commission, 2014-2019
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1/12/2014
New President of
European Council
enters office

4. The positions to fill in 2014
• 751 MEPs
• Commission President
• 27 other commissioners
(including +/- 7 VPs)
• European Council President
• European Parliament
President (x 2)
• Permanent President of
Eurozone
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20 EP Committee chairs
14 EP Vice Presidents
Political Group leaders
Secretary General of
Commission? EP?
• President of 2015
Constitutional Convention
• Non-EU positions: NATO and
UN secretaries general
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5. The process
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6. The process
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7. The people: Commission President
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Viviane Reding, Commission VP
Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland
Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden
Dalia Grybauskaitė, President
Lithuania
• President Barroso
• Enda Kenny, PM Ireland
• Jean-Claude Juncker, PM
Luxembourg
• Martin Schulz, EP President
• Helle Thorning-Schmidt, PM
Denmark
• José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
• Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO
• Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE Group
leader ALDE, EP
• Anders Fogh
Rasmussen, NATO Secretary
General
• Olli Rehn, Commissioner
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9. The incoming Commission President
• Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member state’
focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent already, in 2009)
• Parliamentary majority will be critical
• Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs
• A more partisan College?
• Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?
• Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance? ExMEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP
first before being appointed to the Commission”
• Portfolios? Reform of DGs structure? Commission reform agenda?
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10. The new European Parliament
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Campaign will be first markedly digital EP election campaign
50% new members (normal); up to 30% anti-system/protest parties
EPP and S+D: +/- 220 seats each; ALDE: 65-80? Greens: 50 seats?
Absolute majority (376) harder to achieve without grand coalition?
Impact of a German grand coalition on EPP/S&D behaviour (big
impact 2005-2009)
(Commission) Presidential majority in EP more stable?
Committee chairs part of wider jigsaw
Political group secs gen etc. - minor positions in jigsaw
July I session: EP officers; July II session: Commission President vote
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11. Other people, other positions?
• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for UN job)
• Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister)
• Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)
• ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for
President of European Council?
• European Council – DK PES government to nominate a Liberal?
European Council doesn’t need a nomination
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12. Other people, other positions?
• Commissioners: Kroes (age 72) for a third term? French
government reshuffle after municipals? TTIP – Lamy for Trade
Commissioner again?
• EPP Group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April 2014;
Reding, De Gucht, Rehn to go too?
• S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring -consolation prize for
Schulz? A British position?
• NATO Sec Gen: Frattini / De Crem (Belgium) / Gül (Turkey)?
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13. Online campaigning already underway
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14. Some other issues
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Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative
Manifestos
Campaigning
Candidatures – the process? What process?
Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014
Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation?
A single electoral register (2019?)?
Will it all be a flop?
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15. Is this how the EP will look in June?
ALDE 62 (-20)
EPP 209 (-64)
GUE/NGL 38 (-23)
ECR 61 (+5)
S&D 213 (+19)
GUE/NGL 47 (+12)
Source:
Notre Europe
EFD 32 (nc)
NI 89 (+58)
Much will depend on post-election alliances and changes
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