1. Free Webinar - 17 July 2013 -1-2pm
Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your
headset
You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June
2014: What to expect until the end
of Barroso II and beyond?

2. Free Webinar – 17 July 2013 -1-2pm
Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your
headset
You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel
WELCOME to the 7th
FREE webinar

3. ABOUT THE WEBINAR
SERIES
1

4. EU Lobbying, Ethics &
Transparency: "Do"-s and
"Don't"-s
Risk Regulation in the
EU: Sectors, Advocacy
and the Precautionary
Principle
Regulatory Affairs
Explained: What you
must know about
implementing &
delegated acts
How to Master EU
Interest Representation:
The BM guide to EU
lobbying best practices
7 Tips for Effective EU
Public Affairs: Practical
ideas to reach the highest
impact for your issue
Digital Communication in
EU Affairs: How to master
Twitter, Linkedin & social
media in public affairs
EU Public Affairs Forecast
until June 2014: What to
expect until the end of
Barroso II and beyond?

5. GOOD TO KNOW
2

6. Turn off your Outlook, Skype and other programs
Ask via chat in the bottom left chat box
Questions will be answered during & after the
presentation
Presentation will take approx. 40 mins, followed by Q&A
The webinar is being RECORDED
Recording & PPT will be made available within 3 days
Transcript will be available within 1 week

7. SPEAKER & ORGANISER
3

8. SPEAKER
David Earnshaw
CEO of Burson-Marsteller
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June
2014: What to expect until the end
of Barroso II and beyond?

10. SPEAKER MODERATOR
David Earnshaw András BANETH
CEO of Burson-Marsteller Director – European Training Academy
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June
2014: What to expect until the end
of Barroso II and beyond?

11. 1-day EU training workshops on
lobbying, communication &
decision-making

12. THE PRESENTATION
4

13. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014:
What to expect until the end of Barroso II and
beyond?
European Training Academy, 17.07.2013
David Earnshaw

14. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Contents
• The timeline
• The positions
• The process the jigsaw puzzle
• The people
• Some other issues

15. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

16. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Last EP
plenary
session
European
political
parties
nominate
Presidential
candidates
FEBRUARY
2014
23/24 April
2014
22-25 MAY
2 JUNE – 26
JUNE
EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS
PENTECOST
5-9 JUNE
22/9/2013
GERMAN ELECTION
ASCENSION
26-30 MAY
Constituent
meetings of
EP party
groups
1-3 JULY
EP
Constituent
session
(election of
EP officer-
holders)
26-27 JUNE
EUROPEAN
COUNCIL
Nomination
of
Commission
President
14-17 JULY
15-18/9/2014
EP Session:
Election of
Commission
President
EP plenary
session
01/9/2014
CONFIRMATION
HEARINGS OF
COMMISSIONERS-
DESIGNATE
OCTOBER 2014
October
plenary:
investiture
of
Commission,
2014-2019
1/11/2014 - 2019
2014-2019
Commission
enters office
1/12/2014
New
President of
European
Council
enters office
Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries:
13-16/1, 3-6/2, 19-20/2, 10-13/3, 24-27/3,
7-10/4
European Youth
Event
(9/5 Strasbourg)

17. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The positions to fill in 2014
• 751 Members of the European Parliament
• President of the European Commission
• 27 Commissioners
• President of the European Council (1 December 2014)
• President of the European Parliament (x 2)
• Permanent President of Eurozone
• 20 EP Committee chairs
• 14 EP Vice Presidents
• Political Group leaders
• Secretary General of Commission? EP? (Klaus Welle for EU
Delegation, Washington DC?)
• President of 2015 Constitutional Convention
• Non-EU positions: NATO and UN secretaries general

18. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process
Article 17 TFEU
7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the
appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to
the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be
elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not
obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one
month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the
same procedure.
The Council, by common accord with the President-elect, shall adopt the list of the other persons
whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission. They shall be selected, on the
basis of the suggestions made by Member States, in accordance with the criteria set out in
paragraph 3, second subparagraph, and paragraph 5, second subparagraph.
The President, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the
other members of the Commission shall be subject as a body to a vote of consent by the European
Parliament. On the basis of this consent the Commission shall be appointed by the European
Council, acting by a qualified majority.

19. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process - continued
Declaration 11 on Article 17(6) and (7)of the Treaty on European Union
The Conference considers that, in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties, the European
Parliament and the European Council are jointly responsible for the smooth running of the process
leading to the election of the President of the European Commission. Prior to the decision of the
European Council, representatives of the European Parliament and of the European Council will
thus conduct the necessary consultations in the framework deemed the most appropriate. These
consultations will focus on the backgrounds of the candidates for President of the Commission,
taking account of the elections to the European Parliament, in accordance with the first
subparagraph of Article 17(7). The arrangements for such consultations may be determined, in due
course, by common accord between the European Parliament and the European Council.

20. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The people: Commission President
(with current positions)
• EPP
– Enda Kenny, Taoiseach, Ireland
– Vivian Reding, Vice President European Commission
– Donald Tusk, PM Poland (ruled himself out 10 June 2013)
– Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland
– Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden
– Dalia Grybauskaitė, President Lithuania
– President Barroso
• PES
– Martin Schultz, President European Parliament
– Helle Thorning-Schmitt, PM Denmark
– José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – currently no major position
– Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO
• ALDE
– Guy Verhofstadt, MEP leader ALDE, EP
– Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General

21. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The incoming Commission President
• Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member
state’ focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent
already, in 2009)
• Parliamentary majority will be critical
• Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs
• A more partisan College?
• Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?
• Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance?
Ex-MEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP
first before being appointed to the Commission”
• Portfolios? Reform of Directorates General structure?

22. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Other people, other positions?
• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for Ban-Ki Moon job)
• Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister)
• Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)
• ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of
European Council?
• European Council – Dk PES government to nominate a Liberal? European
Council doesn’t need a nomination – Tusk here perhaps?
• Commissioners: Kroes (age 71) for a third term? Lamy? Aubry (or French
PM?)? EU/US trade deal – Lamy for trade Commissioner again?
• EPP parliamentary group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April
2014; how many other Commissioners on leave of absence (Reding? de
Gucht?)?
• S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring to national politics –
consolation prize for Schultz?
• NATO Sec Gen: Fratini/Pieter De Crem (Belgium)/Abdullah Gul (Turkey)?

23. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Already intense campaigning – even for positions on lists

24. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Some other issues
• Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative
• Manifestos
• Campaigning
• Candidatures – the process? What process?
• Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014
• Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation?
• A single electoral register (2019?)?
• Will it all be a flop?

25. EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
THANK YOU!
If you have further questions, you can contact
David Earnshaw : david.earnshaw@bm.com
37 Square de Meeus
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel: +32 2 743 66 11
Fax: +32 2 733 66 11
www.bmbrussels.eu
www.bm.com