Problem solving & decision making; Quran on Decision making; DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF THE SAME PROBLEM; Nature of Decision Making

1. Arshad Khan
1
PROBLEM SOLVING &
DECISION MAKING

2. Definition
Decision Making:
The process of examining your possible
options, comparing them, and choosing a
course of action.
Can be individual or group decision

3. Quran on Decision making

۟
‫وا‬ ُ‫ق‬َّ‫ت‬
َ
‫ت‬‫ن‬ِ‫إ‬
۟
‫ا‬ٰٓ‫و‬ُ‫ن‬ َ‫ام‬َ‫ء‬ َ‫ين‬ ِ‫ذ‬
َّ
‫ٱل‬ ‫ا‬َ‫ه‬ُّ‫ي‬
َ
‫أ‬
ٰٓ
‫ـ‬َ‫ي‬ْ‫م‬
ُ
‫ك‬
َّ
‫ل‬ ‫ل‬َ‫ع‬ ْ‫ج‬َ‫ي‬ َ َّ
‫ٱَّلل‬‌‫ا‬
ً
‫ان‬
َ
‫‌ق‬ْ‫ر‬
ُ
‫ف‬َ‫و‬ْ‫م‬
ُ
‫نك‬َ‫ع‬ ْ‫ر‬ِ‫ف‬
َ
‫ك‬ُ‫ي‬
ْ‫م‬
ُ
‫ك‬
َ
‫ل‬ ْ‫ر‬ِ‫ف‬
ْ
‫غ‬َ‫ي‬َ‫و‬ ْ‫م‬
ُ
‫ك‬ِ‫ت‬‫ا‬
َٔ
‫ـ‬ِ‫ي‬ َ‫س‬
ُ
‫ذ‬ ُ َّ
‫ٱَّلل‬َ‫و‬ ِۗ‫يم‬ َِِ‫ع‬
ْ
‫ٱل‬ ِ‫ل‬ْْ
َ
‫ف‬
ْ
‫ٱل‬ ‫و‬٢٩﴾
‫ہللا‬ ‫تو‬‫گے‬ ‫و‬‫کر‬‫اختیار‬ ‫ی‬ ‫ترس‬‫خدا‬ ‫تم‬ ‫اگر‬،‫والو‬ ‫النے‬ ‫ایمان‬‫اے‬
‫لےی‬ ‫ے‬‫ر‬‫تمہا‬‫کسوٹی‌بہم‬‫ائی‬‫ر‬ُ‫ب‬ ‫ی‬‫تمہار‬ ‫ر‬‫او‬ ‫گا‬‫دے‬ ‫پہنچا‬‫سے‬‫تم‬ ‫کو‬ ‫ں‬‫و‬
‫ف‬ ‫ا‬‫ڑ‬‫ب‬ ‫ہللا‬ ‫گا‬ ‫دے‬ ‫کر‬ ‫معاف‬ ‫ر‬‫قصو‬ ‫ے‬‫ر‬‫تمہا‬ ‫ر‬‫او‬،‫گا‬ ‫دے‬ ‫کر‬ ‫ر‬‫و‬ُ‫د‬‫ْل‬
‫ےہ‬ ‫واال‬ ‫فرمانے‬(8:29)

4. Choosing the easier
alternative
 "Narrated Aisha (R.a) : Whenever Allah’s Apostle
(may peace be upon him) was given the choice of one of
two matters, he would choose the easier of the
two, as long as it was not sinful to do so, but if
it was sinful to do so, he would not approach it,
" Bukhari 4:491, Hadith #760

5. DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS OF
THE SAME PROBLEM
 Narrated Ibn Umar: On the day of Al-Ahzab the
Prophet (may peace be upon him) said “None of you ( Muslims
) should offer the Asr prayer but at Banu Quraiza’s (
place ).”
 The Asr prayer became due for some of them on the
way.
 Some of those said, “We will not offer it till we reach it,
the place of Banu Quraiza,”
 while some others said, “No we will pray at this spot,
for the Prophet (may peace be upon him) did not mean that
for us.”
 Later on it was mentioned to the Prophet (may peace be
upon him) and he did not berate any of the two groups.”
Bukhari 5:306-307, Hadith #445

6. ANALOGY ‫قیاس‬
 Narrated Abu Huraira: A bedouin came to Allah’s Apostle (may
peace be upon him) and said, “My wife has delivered a black boy,
and I suspect that he is not my child.”
 Allah’s Apostle (may peace be upon him) said to him, “Have you got
camels?”
 The bedouin said, “yes.” The Prophet ( may peace be upon him ) said,
 “What color are they?” The bedouin said, “They are red.”
 The Prophet ( may peace be upon him ) said, “Are any of them grey?”
The bedouin said, “There are grey ones among them.”
 The Prophet ( may peace be upon him ) said, “When do you think this
color came to them?” The bedouin said, “O Allah’s Apostle! It
resulted from heriditary disposition.”
 The Prophet ( may peace be upon him ) said, “And this (i.e your child )
has inherited his color from his ancestors.” The Prophet ( may
peace be upon him ) did not allow him to deny his paternity of the
child. Bukhari 9:311-312, Hadith #417

7. Nature of Decision Making
Identify
Problems(1)
Collect
Information(2)
Consult (3)
Make & Evaluate
Alternatives(4)
Select the
best (5)
Implement
(6)
Follow up(7)

8. BASIC QUESTIONS TO ASK ONESELF
Do I have sufficient information to make a high quality
decision ?
Is the problem structured?
Is acceptance of decision by subordinates critical to
effective implementation?
Do subordinates share the same organizational goals to
be obtained by solving the problem?
Is conflict among subordinates likely in preferred solution?

9. Factors Effecting Decisions
Perception.
Resources
Goals Values
Demands
Acceptability Style
Priority.
Risk

10. Six C's of Decision Making (1)
•a clear picture of precisely what
must be decided.Construct
•a list of requirements that must be
met.
Compile
•information on alternatives that
meet the requirements.Collect

11. Six C's of Decision Making (2)
•alternatives that meet the
requirements.Compare
•the "what might go wrong" factor
with each alternative.
Consider
•to a decision and follow through
with it.Commit

12. Inherent Personal Traps
Trying too hard to play it safe.
Letting fears and biases tilt your thinking and analysis.
Getting lost in the minutia can cause trouble.
Craving for unanimous approval.
Trying to make decisions which are outside your realm of
authority.

13. Inherent System Traps
Begin with too little, inaccurate, or wrong information.
Overlook feasible alternatives or waste time considering
alternatives which have no realistic prospects.
Failure to clearly define the results you expect to
achieve.
Worst of all, failure to reach a decision.

14. Problem Structure
Structured
problem
A problem
whose nature
and context
are well
defined.
The desired
end state is
clear and the
course of
action to get
to the end
state is clear. ‫مط‬‫العہ‌کی‌کمی‬
‫‌کی‌کمی‬‫ی‬‫کارکن‌ساز‬
Unstructured
problem
A problem
characterized
by a lack of
problem and
context
definition.
The desired
end state is
not clearly
understood,
and therefore
the
appropriate
course of
action is
unknown.
‫خاتم‬‫کا‬‫غربت‬‫ہ‬

15. Biases in Decision Making
Halo errors
Negative
information
Stereotypes
Shortcuts
3/31/2020

16. DECISION MAKING STYLES
Alignment (Participative style)
Consensus (Group decision style)
Majority (Group consultative style)
Inputs (Autocratic with group’s review & feedback)
Sell (Autocratic with group information)
Tell (Autocratic or directive style)

17. Tell
The Leader
defines
problem,
diagnoses
problem,
generates,
evaluates and
chooses among
alternative
solutions.

18. Sell
The Leader
defines the
problem,
diagnoses the
cause of the
problem;
and by virtue of
his position he
persuade the
people to accept
his decision.

19. Inputs
The Leader defines the problem,
diagnoses the cause of the problem
However,
he uses the group as an information
source in obtaining data to determine
cause and also selects a solution.
The Leader then presents his or her plan
to the group for understanding, review
and Feedback.

20. Majority
The Leader
shares his or
her definition of
the problem,
with the work
group as a
whole.
After
discussions
voting is
conducted and
decision is
taken on
majority basis

21. Consensus
The Leader shares
his or her definition of
the problem.
The Group then
proceeds to diagnose
the causes of the
problem, evaluates
and chooses among
solutions.
A small minority does
disagree but still feels
that the other option
is better

22. Alignment
The Group as
a whole
proceeds
through the
entire decision
making
process.
The group
defines the
problem and
performs all
other functions
as a group.
At the end all
agrees
unanimously
that this is the
best solution

23. Individual VS Group
Us vs Them
Focus on differences
Democratic Voting
Start with answers and Positions
Directive
In a context of Power
We together
Focus on commonalities
Discussion & Understanding
Start with Problems, Values and
Meanings
Participative
Context of Equality

24. ADVANTAGES OF GROUP DECISION
Increased acceptance
Wide experience
Variety of approach
Easier coordination of action
Easier communication
Scope for development of participants
Decision is owned by the group. implementation becomes easier.

25. DISADVANTAGES OF GROUP DECISION MAKING
Take longer
Can be indecisive
Can be dominated by one person
Problems with disagreement
Compromise decisions
Groups within group
Ambiguous responsibility
Strong minority

26. Fish Bone Analysis

27. ?