Soviet Union, Russia, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics

1. Soviet Russia Geo-economics
and Geopolitics : Western
Balkans
Armend MUJA
Corvinus University

2. Table of Content
1. Geopolitics of Russia – permanent struggle
2. Traditional geopolitical perspectives
3. Post-Soviet perspectives
4. Contemporary Perspectives
5. Russia and Western Balkans
6. Recovering from Balkan ‘humiliation’
7. Countering NATO expansion
8. Countering Europeanisation
9. Concluding remarks

3. 1. Geopolitics of Russia: Permanent Struggle
• Russian Moscovy defining characteristics – indefensibility
and chronical agony of surviving invasions
• Territorial expansion to defy potential enemies
originating South, East and West
• Waves of expansion to secure its indefensible core

5. 2. Traditional geopolitical perspectives
• Expand north and east to secure climatically hostile
territory
• Expand south to Caucasus and southeastern
steppes to hamper invasions of Asian origin
• Expand as far West as possible to crate a buffer
zone against Napoleonic/Hitler threats to the
Russian core
• Expand to warm water ports to secure open ocean
access to ensure economic independence

7. 3. Post-Soviet Perspectives
• Soviet-Union collapsed due to overextension to the West and
arms race
• Western-style Liberalism 1991-1998 had caused political and
economic havoc and collapse of Soviet Union ‘greatest
geopolitical catastrophe’ (Putin)
• Neo-Euroasianism - stresses the importance of geopolitical
discourse on Euroasian Union (Alexander Dugin) and territorial
expansion
• Nationalistic perspective – civilisationist expansionism along
former Soviet Union borders. Euroasian identity and more
values of collectivism and communitarism to counter pan-
European chauvinism (Zyuganov)
• Pragmatic interest-based perspective - re-balance the world
order, exploit Western failues and counter the expansion of
NATO and EU (Primakov)

8. 4. Contemporary perspectives
• Russian foreign policy employs elements of ‘geopolitics
perspective and increased pre-occupation with territorial
control
• Re-establish Russian greatness through Euroasion Union,
Euroasian identify construction and compete with the
West over spheres of influence (Middle East/Western
Balkans/Near Abroad)
• Non-ideological and pragmatic foreign policy to re-
integrate the post-Soviet sphere through
political/economic/military means (Lukin)
• The ‘third way’ Euroasianist identity construction to justify
realpolitik in dominating the Euroasian heartland (Baev)

9. 5. Russia and Western Balkans
Strategy
• A unified exploitative, revisionist and disruptive strategy (Economides)
• Prevent NATO expansion, Europeanisaton and Western ‘humiliation’
Methods
• Re-enter the Western Balkans via loopholes and blind spots in
Western underbelly
• Exploit clientelist political and economic elites and inter-ethnic
divisions (Bechev)
• Secure political leverage via energy policy
• Employ soft and ‘orthodox brotherhood’

10. 6. Recovering from Balkan ‘humiliation’
• Russian ‘humiliation’ - Russia was kicked around by West and
US and it proved weak to defend its former allies Milosevic
and Karadzic (Eggert) for domestic discourse
• Failure to protect Russian allies - NATO intervention in
Yugoslavia in 1999 left a scar and gave the West the green
power to launch similar interventions in Iraq, Libya, Syria
• Exploit grievances in international system - The independence
of Kosovo is used to showcase Western double standards and
justify Russian breaking of international law (Economides)

11. Countering NATO Expansion (Western
Balkans)

12. 7. Countering Europeanisation
• Showcase the failure of Europanisation in Western
Balkans to produce a counter-narrative for both
domestic and near-abroad audiences (Bechev)
• Stress brotherly links with Orthodox states (Serbia,
Bosnia, Bulgaria, Macedonia)
• Stress the pain of European debt crisis and mortal
effects of European values on national fabric

13. 9. Concluding remarks (1) : political effects
• Minimal effects in Serbia (neutrality) and Bosnia (Serbian veto)
• Failure on Countering NATO Expansion in Western Balkans (Albania,
Croatia, Montenegro) became members
• Failure on Countering Europeanisation (Croatia membership),
candidate membership (Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro) are
candidate members
• Serbia closest Russia’s partner is a candidate country and EU
membership a national consensus
• Kosovo membership in international bodies blocked due to Russian
veto
• Macedonia back under strong pro-EU government

14. 9. Concluding remarks (2): Economic effects
60.40%
84.10%
60.60%
71.80%
65.00%
63.30%
55.30%
73.30% 62.40%
46.90%
37.60%
9.60%
28.20% 28.30%
34% 31%
44.30%
23.10%
29.10%
43.70%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Western Balkans Trade with Russia, EU and Others (2016, Eurostat)
Russia EU Other