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A Short Thought Piece by
"We've had three big ideas at Amazon
that we've stuck with for 18 years, and
they're the reason we're successful: Put
the customer first. Invent. And be
patient.“ – Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon
Executive Summary
•
1

Successful Internet companies never stop innovating

•
2

Scaled companies continue to aggressively enter new markets.
They do not stop innovating. Either organically or through
acquisition

3
•

Nascent Internet companies have 2 or 3 major innovations per
quarter. Despite having already achieved multi-billion dollar
valuations, it‟s just the tip of the iceberg

4
•

Every successful internet company has made mobile a priority.
Several are seeing mobile as responsible for over 50% of their
businesses. Expect that number to become over 80% in 5 years
Innovation Drives GROWTH and VALUE

Market Stats

Market Stats

Market Stats

Market Cap: $343.1B
’13-’14E Growth: +17%
LTM Price Perf: +49%

Market Cap: $164.3B
’13-’14E Growth: +22%
LTM Price Perf: +55%

Market Cap: $122.1B
’13-’14E Growth: +36%
LTM Price Perf: +135%

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q1’05: Maps
Q4’05: Google Analytics
Q3’05: Acquisition of Android
Q4’06: Google Docs
Q4’06: YouTube acquisition
Q3’07: Mobile AdSense
Q1’08: DoubleClick acquisition
Q3’08: Launch of Google Chrome
Q2’10: Acquisition of AdMob,
launch of KnowledgeGraph
Q3’10: Google Instant
Q2’12: Acquisition of Motorola
Mobility
Q1’13: Google Glass
Q3’13: Chromecast

Eye-PoppingStat
75%

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q4’05: Mechanical Turk
Q1’06: AWS
Q3’06: Launch of FBA
Q3’07: Amazon Fresh
Q3’07: Amazon MP3
Q4’07: Amazon Prime
Q3’09: Basics (private label
consumer electronics)
Q4’10: Amazon Studios
Q1’11: Amazon Instant Video
Q3’11: Kindle Fire
Q3’12: Kindle Fire HD
Q4’12: Amazon Redshift
Q1’13: Mobile ads
Q3’13: Art Marketplace

Q2’12: Instagram acquisition
Q2’12: Camera app
Q2’12: Sponsored Stories
Q2’12: Ad Exchange (FBX)
Q3’12: Custom Audiences
Q4’12: Graph Search
Q1’13: Home for Android
Q1’13: Partner Categories
Q3’13: Artificial Intelligence

Eye-PoppingStat

Eye-PoppingStat
49%

158

3%

9
Q2 „09

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q3 „12

Android as % of all
Smartphone shipments

24

07

08

48

61

09

10

41%

82

23%

30%

14%

11

12

AWS Offerings by Year

Q3'12

Q4'12
Mobile Q1'13 Q2'13
Revenue as

Q3'13

Share of Total %

Even at $100B+ sizes, Internet companies continue to enter new markets aggressively
Innovation Drives GROWTH and VALUE

Market Stats

Market Stats

Market Cap: $26.3B
’13-’14E Growth: +42%
LTM Price Perf: +106%

Market Cap: $4.7B
’13-’14E Growth: +51%
LTM Price Perf: +179%

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q3’11: Applied w/ LinkedIn
Q4’11: Polls
Q3’12: Influencers
Q3’12: Endorsements
Q2’13: Contacts
Q2’13: Rich media profiles
Q2’13: Check-in
Q2’13: Channels
Q3’13: Sponsored Updates
Q3’13: University Pages
Q3’13: Pulse/LinkedIn Launch
Q4’13: Intro
Q4’13: Recruiter Mobile

49%

30%

Talent
Solutions
20%
23% 57%

Q2„11

Q3„13

Revenue Mix
(IPO to Present)

•
•

Marketing
Solutions
Premium
Subscriptions

Market Cap: $3.0B
’13-’14E Growth: +42%
LTM Price Perf: +114%

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q2’12: Launched first International
Sales Office
Q2’12: Introduces Yelp Insights
Q3’12: Apple Maps/ Siri Integration
Q3’12: Qype Acquisition
Q4’12: Gift Certificates
Q4’12: Menus
Q4’12: Mobile Ads
Q1’13: LIVES (health inspection
scores)
Q1’13: Merchant Revenue Estimator
Q2’13: SeatMe Acquisition
Q3’13: Platform (direct transactions)

Eye-PoppingStat
21%

Market Stats

Eye-Popping Stat
Cohort
2005-2006
2007-2008
2009-2010
2011-Present
Total

Y/Y Rev
Growth %
50%
77%
127%
218%
81%

8-year old
cohort
continues to
grow at
50% clip

Revenue Growth by Cohort (Q1 ’13)

Innovation Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Q4’11: CRM Platform
Q4’11: MLS Listings Integration
Q1’12: Rent Juice acquisition
Q2’12: Rentals Marketplace
Q2’12: Premier Agents website
Q3’12: Mortech and Buyfolio
Acquisitions
Q3’12: Pre-market Inventory
Q4’12: Pricing model transition
Q4’12: HotPads acquisition
Q1’13: Digs Marketplace (Home
Improvement)
Q3’12: StreetEasy acquisition

Eye-PoppingStat
Real Estate
Marketplace
39% 61%

23%
11% 66%

Q4„11

Q3„13

Revenue Mix
(IPO to Present)

Nascent Internet companies have multiple major innovations per quarter
This is still early days

Mortgages
Marketplace
Display
Mobile:
It’s not a strategy.
It’s your business.
The Shift Has Arrived
“From board meeting to board meeting, we are seeing a
similar pattern. Web is flattish. But mobile is growing like a
weed…It is not good news for those who find themselves
operating a big Internet business started more than five years
ago. You are going to need to make a hard right turn super
fast without flipping over the car.”
“The implication is clear – we are in the middle of a critical
platform transition…The biggest losers will be the web
incumbents who do not understand the rules of the new
road, or the consequences of missed execution.”
Winners Have Made Mobile A Priority
Company

Then
•

Q3‟09: Android only 3% of
smartphone shipments

•

Zero mobile offerings in 2007

•

Zero mobile revenue in late
2012

•

Q3‟11: 11M mobile visits

•

Q1‟12: No mobile app

•

Q1‟11: 3.5M mobile
searches/month. No ads. No
mobile reviews.

Now (Key Mobile Innovations)

LTM Stock
Price
Appreciation

•

Android 75% of smartphone
shipments. Motorola, Android, Wallet,
Admob, Maps, Drive

+49%

•

Kindle, Kindle OS, Silk, Mobile Ads,
Video / MP3 Offering

+55%

•

Built native mobile app, now 49% of
revenue is mobile; Instagram;
Sponsored Stories

+135%

•
•
•

iOS 7 launch demo
27M mobile monthly actives
50% of home views via mobile

+114%

•

60M+ downloads, over 50% of
transactions in North America

+146%

•

Q3‟13: 11.2M mobile searches/month.
62% of total. 46% of ad rev from
mobile. 25% of reviews written on
mobile

+179%

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Internet Company Innovation

  • 1. A Short Thought Piece by
  • 2. "We've had three big ideas at Amazon that we've stuck with for 18 years, and they're the reason we're successful: Put the customer first. Invent. And be patient.“ – Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon
  • 3. Executive Summary • 1 Successful Internet companies never stop innovating • 2 Scaled companies continue to aggressively enter new markets. They do not stop innovating. Either organically or through acquisition 3 • Nascent Internet companies have 2 or 3 major innovations per quarter. Despite having already achieved multi-billion dollar valuations, it‟s just the tip of the iceberg 4 • Every successful internet company has made mobile a priority. Several are seeing mobile as responsible for over 50% of their businesses. Expect that number to become over 80% in 5 years
  • 4. Innovation Drives GROWTH and VALUE Market Stats Market Stats Market Stats Market Cap: $343.1B ’13-’14E Growth: +17% LTM Price Perf: +49% Market Cap: $164.3B ’13-’14E Growth: +22% LTM Price Perf: +55% Market Cap: $122.1B ’13-’14E Growth: +36% LTM Price Perf: +135% Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • • • • • Q1’05: Maps Q4’05: Google Analytics Q3’05: Acquisition of Android Q4’06: Google Docs Q4’06: YouTube acquisition Q3’07: Mobile AdSense Q1’08: DoubleClick acquisition Q3’08: Launch of Google Chrome Q2’10: Acquisition of AdMob, launch of KnowledgeGraph Q3’10: Google Instant Q2’12: Acquisition of Motorola Mobility Q1’13: Google Glass Q3’13: Chromecast Eye-PoppingStat 75% Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Q4’05: Mechanical Turk Q1’06: AWS Q3’06: Launch of FBA Q3’07: Amazon Fresh Q3’07: Amazon MP3 Q4’07: Amazon Prime Q3’09: Basics (private label consumer electronics) Q4’10: Amazon Studios Q1’11: Amazon Instant Video Q3’11: Kindle Fire Q3’12: Kindle Fire HD Q4’12: Amazon Redshift Q1’13: Mobile ads Q3’13: Art Marketplace Q2’12: Instagram acquisition Q2’12: Camera app Q2’12: Sponsored Stories Q2’12: Ad Exchange (FBX) Q3’12: Custom Audiences Q4’12: Graph Search Q1’13: Home for Android Q1’13: Partner Categories Q3’13: Artificial Intelligence Eye-PoppingStat Eye-PoppingStat 49% 158 3% 9 Q2 „09 Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • Q3 „12 Android as % of all Smartphone shipments 24 07 08 48 61 09 10 41% 82 23% 30% 14% 11 12 AWS Offerings by Year Q3'12 Q4'12 Mobile Q1'13 Q2'13 Revenue as Q3'13 Share of Total % Even at $100B+ sizes, Internet companies continue to enter new markets aggressively
  • 5. Innovation Drives GROWTH and VALUE Market Stats Market Stats Market Cap: $26.3B ’13-’14E Growth: +42% LTM Price Perf: +106% Market Cap: $4.7B ’13-’14E Growth: +51% LTM Price Perf: +179% Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • • • • • Q3’11: Applied w/ LinkedIn Q4’11: Polls Q3’12: Influencers Q3’12: Endorsements Q2’13: Contacts Q2’13: Rich media profiles Q2’13: Check-in Q2’13: Channels Q3’13: Sponsored Updates Q3’13: University Pages Q3’13: Pulse/LinkedIn Launch Q4’13: Intro Q4’13: Recruiter Mobile 49% 30% Talent Solutions 20% 23% 57% Q2„11 Q3„13 Revenue Mix (IPO to Present) • • Marketing Solutions Premium Subscriptions Market Cap: $3.0B ’13-’14E Growth: +42% LTM Price Perf: +114% Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • • • Q2’12: Launched first International Sales Office Q2’12: Introduces Yelp Insights Q3’12: Apple Maps/ Siri Integration Q3’12: Qype Acquisition Q4’12: Gift Certificates Q4’12: Menus Q4’12: Mobile Ads Q1’13: LIVES (health inspection scores) Q1’13: Merchant Revenue Estimator Q2’13: SeatMe Acquisition Q3’13: Platform (direct transactions) Eye-PoppingStat 21% Market Stats Eye-Popping Stat Cohort 2005-2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 2011-Present Total Y/Y Rev Growth % 50% 77% 127% 218% 81% 8-year old cohort continues to grow at 50% clip Revenue Growth by Cohort (Q1 ’13) Innovation Timeline • • • • • • • • • • • Q4’11: CRM Platform Q4’11: MLS Listings Integration Q1’12: Rent Juice acquisition Q2’12: Rentals Marketplace Q2’12: Premier Agents website Q3’12: Mortech and Buyfolio Acquisitions Q3’12: Pre-market Inventory Q4’12: Pricing model transition Q4’12: HotPads acquisition Q1’13: Digs Marketplace (Home Improvement) Q3’12: StreetEasy acquisition Eye-PoppingStat Real Estate Marketplace 39% 61% 23% 11% 66% Q4„11 Q3„13 Revenue Mix (IPO to Present) Nascent Internet companies have multiple major innovations per quarter This is still early days Mortgages Marketplace Display
  • 6. Mobile: It’s not a strategy. It’s your business.
  • 7. The Shift Has Arrived “From board meeting to board meeting, we are seeing a similar pattern. Web is flattish. But mobile is growing like a weed…It is not good news for those who find themselves operating a big Internet business started more than five years ago. You are going to need to make a hard right turn super fast without flipping over the car.” “The implication is clear – we are in the middle of a critical platform transition…The biggest losers will be the web incumbents who do not understand the rules of the new road, or the consequences of missed execution.”
  • 8. Winners Have Made Mobile A Priority Company Then • Q3‟09: Android only 3% of smartphone shipments • Zero mobile offerings in 2007 • Zero mobile revenue in late 2012 • Q3‟11: 11M mobile visits • Q1‟12: No mobile app • Q1‟11: 3.5M mobile searches/month. No ads. No mobile reviews. Now (Key Mobile Innovations) LTM Stock Price Appreciation • Android 75% of smartphone shipments. Motorola, Android, Wallet, Admob, Maps, Drive +49% • Kindle, Kindle OS, Silk, Mobile Ads, Video / MP3 Offering +55% • Built native mobile app, now 49% of revenue is mobile; Instagram; Sponsored Stories +135% • • • iOS 7 launch demo 27M mobile monthly actives 50% of home views via mobile +114% • 60M+ downloads, over 50% of transactions in North America +146% • Q3‟13: 11.2M mobile searches/month. 62% of total. 46% of ad rev from mobile. 25% of reviews written on mobile +179%