I have made an effort to provide an overview of the Syrian Refugee Crisis

1. The Syrian Refugee Crisis
& Europe
By: Akram Khalid
March 2016

2. Muslim Population in Europe
• As of 2010, the European Union was home to
about 13 million Muslim immigrants
– 4.8 million Muslims in Germany (5.8% of the
country’s population) and
– 4.7 million Muslims in France (7.5% of country’s
population)
• Within Europe, Russia alone has the biggest
Muslim population 14 million Muslims (10% is
of country’s population

3. Population Growth Rate in Europe
• There has been steady increase in Muslim
population in Europe
• Since 1990, growth of 1 percent point per
decade has been witnessed; from 4 percent in
1990 to 6 percent in 2010
• Experts expect this pattern to continue
through 2030, when Muslims are projected to
make up 8% of Europe’s population

4. Younger Muslim Population
• In 2010, median age of European Christians was
42 years
• Median age of religiously unaffiliated people,
including atheists, agnostics and those with no
religion was 37 years
• Median age of Muslims throughout Europe was
32 eight years
• By contrast, Muslim Population was eight years
younger than median European age of 40 years

5. Europe’s Views About Muslims
Country Favorable % Unfavorable
France 72 27
Britain 64 26
Germany 58 33
Spain 49 46
Greece 43 53
Poland 32 58
Italy 28 63
PEW Research 2014

6. Syria – Recent History
• Syria is the oldest continuously inhabited country
• It also remained a province of the former Ottoman Empire
• Following World War I, France acquired & administered Syria
until granting it independence in 1946
• The new country lacked political stability and experienced a
series of military coups
• In 1958, Syria united with Egypt to form the United Arab
Republic
• In 1961, the two entities separated, and the Syrian Arab
Republic was re-established.

7. Syria – Recent History
• Syria lost Golan Heights region to Israel in the Arab-Israel
war of 1967
• Syria and Israel held occasional peace talks in the 1990’s
over the return of Golan Heights region
• Hafiz-al-Asad, a member of the socialist Ba'th Party and
the minority Alawi sect, seized power in a bloodless coup
in 1970 and brought political stability to the country
• Following the death of Hafiz-al-Asad in 2000, his son,
Bashar-al-Asad became President through popular
referendum

8. Syria – Economic Overview
Indicators Quantum
Population (July 2014 Est.) 17.064 Million
Un-employment Rate (2015 Est.) 57.7 Percent
Population Below Poverty Line (2006 Est.) 82.5 Percent
Exports
(Billion US Dollars)
2015 1.849
2014 3.015
2010 11.353
2009 11.693
2008 14.380
2007 11.545
2006 10.919

9. Sufferings of Syrian People
• Heartless and senseless conflict since 2011 has killed
over 300,000 Syrians and over half the population
has been forced from their homes out of fear
• Some 4.6 million people are barely existing in places
where aid cannot reach
• Nearly 6.0 million people have fled, mainly to
neighboring countries
• Syria, the oldest continuously inhabited country is
today completely uninhabitable and almost
unrecognizable – may take generations to rebuild

10. Major Refugee Destinations
Country Refugees (Million)
Turkey 3.0
Lebanon 1.1
Jordan 0.6
Iraq 0.4
Egypt 0.1
Europe 0.5

11. International Law on Refugees
• Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states:
“Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries
asylum from persecution”
• These principles are fleshed out in the UN Convention relating
to the Status of Refugees of 1951 and the respective Protocol
of 1967
• The Convention of 1951 was a product of post-WWII Europe.
The drafters limited its scope geographically and
chronologically to alleviate refugee crises caused by the
Second World War. The Protocol of 1967 consecutively
extended the 1951 Convention’s scope, stripping it from its
previous historically rationalized limitations
• Both documents, the Convention of 1951 and its Protocol, can
be ratified separately and indeed some countries have chosen
to ratify just one instead of both. 148 countries have ratified
one or both, including all EU member states

12. Shortcomings in Refugees Law
• Rights of the Refugee Convention unfold gradually as the bond
between the hosting country and the refugee becomes stronger
• A set of rights might already apply when the person is physically
present but other rights only apply when the person has filed
his or her papers (is “lawfully present”)
• Right to waged employment only unfolds when asylum-seeker
has settled in the country for three to six months
• The historical reason for this gradual increase is that the drafters
were facing large, unforeseen refugee inflows before 1951 and
were reluctant to grant refugees a wide set of rights instantly.

13. European Laws on Human Rights
• European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) was active long
before the EU began its efforts in refugee law; ratified by 47
states
• ECtHR has developed a guarantee of non-refoulement via its
jurisprudence.
• ECtHR ruled in Chahal v UK that deportation order of a Sikh
refugee infringed Article 3 of the European Convention of HR
• Chahal was arrested (but not convicted) for conspiracy to kill
the then Indian PM. He claimed that deportation to India
would result in a real risk of torture, inhuman or degrading
treatment which would violate the right to asylum

14. European Laws on Human Rights
• Court ruled in Chalal’s favor, holding that Article 3 contained a
guarantee that is absolute. UK could thus not rely on its
national security interest to justify the deportation of the
applicant
• The ECtHR is not elected democratically and cannot make laws.
The ECtHR needs a case before it to make a decision and
therefore cannot proactively create policies as it deems
necessary
• Moreover, the ECtHR has not (yet) enforced equal acceptance
standards across the EU, which is one of the biggest tasks
today

15. European Laws on Human Rights
• For instance, Afghan asylum seekers in 2011 had a three percent
chance of becoming recognized refugees in the Netherlands and a
thirty-three percent chance to become recognized in Austria
• A recent report by the European Council on Refugees and Exiles
(ECRE) confirms this trend.13 In 2014, positive decision rates for
Eritrean nationals varied from twenty-six in France to one
hundred percent in Sweden, while rates for Iraqi nationals ranged
from fourteen percent in Greece to ninety-four percent in France.
• Even Syrians, whose refugee status is less controversial
internationally, have different acceptance rates across Europe.
Naturally, it is usually the most burdened countries that have the
lowest acceptance rates

16. UNHCR Recommendations
UNHCR has given six point plan for broad guidance of EU to
manage and stabilize the refugee situation:
1) Implement fully the so-called "hot spot" approach and
relocation of asylum seekers out of Greece and Italy and,
at the same time, return individuals who don't qualify for
refugee protection, including under existing readmission
agreements
2) Step up support to Greece to handle the humanitarian
emergency, including for refugee status determination,
relocation, and return or readmission
3) Ensure compliance with all the EU laws and directives on
asylum among Member States

17. UNHCR Recommendations
4) Make available more safe, legal ways for refugees to travel
to Europe under managed programs so that refugees do not
resort to smugglers and traffickers to find safety
5) Safe-guard individuals at risk, including systems to protect
unaccompanied and separated children, measures to
prevent and respond to sexual, gender-based violence etc.
6) Develop Europe-wide systems of responsibility for asylum-
seekers, including the creation of registration centers in
main countries of arrival, and setting up a system for asylum
requests to be distributed in an equitable way across EU
Member States

18. GCC Response to Refugee Crisis
• GCC states are not signatories to any of the protocol/
Convention relating to the Status of Refugees so they do
not recognize “Refugees”.
• Despite claims of GCC Countries to have accommodated
millions of Syrian refugees, there has been in reality “zero
accommodation” provided by these countries
• During 2011 & 2013, slightly over 3 million Syrians entered
Saudi Arabia and almost similar number exited every year
• In Kuwait almost 0.7 million Syrians entered the country
during same period and almost same number exited
• UAE government claims having accommodated more than
100,000 Syrians (not verifiable) in addition to grant in aid
of over US$ 1 billion for Syrian Refugees

19. Turkey’s Response to Refugee Crisis
While Turkey has accommodated the highest number of
refugees on its soil, it has demanded from EU the
following:
• Relaxation in visa restrictions for 75 million Turks
within Europe’s 26-member border-free travel zone by
the end of June, instead of October as originally
promised
• Restart Turkey’s EU membership talks in five policy
areas (chapters in EU jargon), not just the two already
offered
• One Syrian refugee on the Greek islands will be
returned to Turkey and, in exchange, a Syrian asylum
seeker in Turkey will be found a home in Europe

20. Europe’s Response to Refuge Crisis
• European Union & Council of Europe have failed to step up
collectively in response to the Syrian refugee crisis.
• European Union’s border states such as Greece and Italy
had capacity issues to address increasing flows of refugees
• European countries mostly remained divided over
accommodating refugees
• Germany on the contrary set a more welcoming example
in 2015
• If systems had been put in place earlier, particularly in Italy
and Greece, the EU would not be facing acute crisis in
handling refugees

21. Germany’s Purported Economic
Motive
• According to the US media reports, by 2060 only half
the population of Germany will be of working age and
one in eight will be over 80.
• Overall population will likely have shrunk from 81
million to 73 million
• While many Germans may be welcoming refugees as a
matter of principle, the reality of the situation is also
that the country is lacking skilled workers and stands to
benefit economically from welcoming newcomers,
many of whom are young and educated

22. Associated Risks
• In violation of the EU laws, many member countries are
building fence along their borders to avoid influx of
refugees. This is because of several fears such as:
• The exacerbation of anti-immigration sentiment
• Burden on public finances of European countries
• Medium- to long-term economic implications
• Deteriorating security in the Middle East & Europe
• Difficulties of cultural & religious integration
• Fear that terrorists might enter Europe

23. Associated Benefits for Ageing Europe
• Most asylum-seekers in Europe are a potential workforce that
could relieve the continent’s economic hardship
• 59.1% of male and 41% of female applicants are between the
ages of 18 and 34
• A large influx of young people into a demographically aging
continent needs to be understood as an opportunity, not as a
threat
• Absorption of refugees can be an important tool to strengthen
Europe’s workforce.
• A report by the research service of the European Parliament
suggests that a well-managed refugee influx can lead to a
positive impact on GDP growth

24. United States’ Response to Refugees
• United States has shown interest in taking at least
10,000 displaced Syrians in 2016 although experts
suggest US could take more
• More than half of US governors are against taking
Syrian refugees owing to perception of threat to public
security & drain on public resources
• Research shows that in short term there could be
pressure on resources … but in the long term, refugees
compensate by contributing to economy way more
than the expenses spent on them
• Reports suggest that in Europe they’ve found refugees
have been a net positive for them

25. Pakistan & Afghan Refugees
• Afghanistan’s instability for decades after the Soviets invasion
followed by the US invasion in the aftermath of 9/11 attacks
resulted in huge influx of Afghan refugees across the border
into Pakistan
• Pakistan not only was burdened with millions of Afghan
refugees but also it became victim of frequent terrorist attacks
• Pakistan continues to pay a heavy price both in the economic
and security terms in addition to a tarnished image globally
due to this situation.
• Substantial portion of precious national resources both men
and material, have been diverted to address the emerging
security challenges for the last several years.

26. Pakistan & Afghan Refugees
• Presently, there are an estimated three million Afghan refugees
living in Pakistan, of which nearly half are illegal inhabitants
• Owing to uncertainties in Afghanistan, Afghan refugees are not
willing to go back
• Afghan government requested Pakistan to allow the remaining
1.5 million registered refugees to stay on in Pakistan for another
two years up Dec 2017
• A day after the request was made, security agencies had nabbed
52 people involved in financing terrorists in Pakistan — all
Afghans. This is merely one instance of the profound negative
security implications of hosting millions of Afghan refugees

27. Pakistan & Afghan Refugees
• Nearly one million Afghan refugees are running big businesses in
Pakistan worth millions of dollars. Most of them run import and
export, and currency exchange businesses
• Roughly 200,000 refugees own vehicles
• The home department statistics reveal 400 schools for Afghan
refugees exist across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province
• 9000 Afghan doctors running clinics in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
province
• Thousands of the refugees are said to own houses
• Many have made illegal Pakistani identity cards as they consider
themselves Pakistanis.

28. General Comments
• Worldwide, 19.5 million people have been forced to
seek sanctuary abroad
• Governments have a duty to help them. But most
rich countries are still treating refugees as somebody
else’s problem
• Hiding behind closed borders and fears of being
“flooded”, they have conveniently allowed poorer,
mainly Middle Eastern, African and South Asian
countries, to host an incredible 86% of all refugees

29. General Comments
• Today, this world has become a violent and unsafe place
• In their quest to grab resources of weaker countries, the
rich & powerful nations are creating war like situations,
political unrests & civil wars in those countries
• These nations are not even hesitating to kill millions of
innocent children, women and men; those who are left to
live become either physically or mentally disabled
• Laws are being promoted to prohibit killing of beasts;
displacement & killing of innocent people has become
routine
• United Nations has become a silent spectator and
redundant as an organization; In most cases coverage of
United Nations is taken to fulfil ulterior motives
• We are ourselves destroying this world with our own hands

30. Thank you