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Predictive marketing in a
nutshell
Coupons Shopping listsDiscounts nearby
Edadeal
WAU
WAU
something
went wrong
Reasons
• CPI increased rapidly
Reasons
• CPI increased rapidly
• Pricy and time-consuming to test new hypotheses
Reasons
• CPI increased rapidly
• Pricy and time-consuming to test new hypotheses
• Target event happens on 14th day since...
The funnel
The funnel
Target metric
Data
• Over 500 distinct in-app events
• Lots of custom in-app event parameters
• Lots of successful user scenarios
1 Session Logs Machine Learning
RR1w
predicted
Blackbox
Problem #1
Consistency, necessity and sufficiency
Problem #2
Dataset cleansing
Dataset cleansing
• Reduce the number of noisy features
• Get rid of compromised users
• Balance the dataset
Problem #3
Changing over time
Changing over time
Problem #4
Which actually doesn’t exist
ML Model
*	Zalando blog
ML Model
*	Zalando blog
Process
Traffic
Source
subpub_id
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
events
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
events
events
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
events
events
First session events
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
events
events
First session events
Traffic
Source
subpub_id user
events
events
First session events
postback
Production
Production. Challenge the model
Production
Start of the
campaigns
Production
Downtime
for a week
Start of the
campaigns
Production
Downtime
for a week
Start of the
campaigns
Fine-tuning
Production
Downtime
for a week
Start of the
campaigns
Fine-tuning
Stability
The result
что-то	пошло	
не	так
something	
went	wrong
The result
no,	np
something	
went	wrong
Homework
• YDF & World of Tanks case
Homework
• Zalando case
Homework
• Jelly Splash! case
Q&A
@maratz
Predictive Marketing In A Nutshell
Predictive Marketing In A Nutshell
Predictive Marketing In A Nutshell
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Predictive Marketing In A Nutshell

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Mobile Spree Berlin 2018: Marat Zhanabekov, Growth Hacker, Edadeal

How-to guide of boosting retention rate and volume of installs with the power of machine learning.

Published in: Technology
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Predictive Marketing In A Nutshell

  1. 1. Predictive marketing in a nutshell
  2. 2. Coupons Shopping listsDiscounts nearby Edadeal
  3. 3. WAU
  4. 4. WAU something went wrong
  5. 5. Reasons • CPI increased rapidly
  6. 6. Reasons • CPI increased rapidly • Pricy and time-consuming to test new hypotheses
  7. 7. Reasons • CPI increased rapidly • Pricy and time-consuming to test new hypotheses • Target event happens on 14th day since install
  8. 8. The funnel
  9. 9. The funnel
  10. 10. Target metric
  11. 11. Data • Over 500 distinct in-app events • Lots of custom in-app event parameters • Lots of successful user scenarios
  12. 12. 1 Session Logs Machine Learning RR1w predicted Blackbox
  13. 13. Problem #1 Consistency, necessity and sufficiency
  14. 14. Problem #2 Dataset cleansing
  15. 15. Dataset cleansing • Reduce the number of noisy features • Get rid of compromised users • Balance the dataset
  16. 16. Problem #3 Changing over time
  17. 17. Changing over time
  18. 18. Problem #4 Which actually doesn’t exist
  19. 19. ML Model * Zalando blog
  20. 20. ML Model * Zalando blog
  21. 21. Process
  22. 22. Traffic Source subpub_id
  23. 23. Traffic Source subpub_id user
  24. 24. Traffic Source subpub_id user events
  25. 25. Traffic Source subpub_id user events events
  26. 26. Traffic Source subpub_id user events events First session events
  27. 27. Traffic Source subpub_id user events events First session events
  28. 28. Traffic Source subpub_id user events events First session events postback
  29. 29. Production
  30. 30. Production. Challenge the model
  31. 31. Production Start of the campaigns
  32. 32. Production Downtime for a week Start of the campaigns
  33. 33. Production Downtime for a week Start of the campaigns Fine-tuning
  34. 34. Production Downtime for a week Start of the campaigns Fine-tuning Stability
  35. 35. The result что-то пошло не так something went wrong
  36. 36. The result no, np something went wrong
  37. 37. Homework • YDF & World of Tanks case
  38. 38. Homework • Zalando case
  39. 39. Homework • Jelly Splash! case
  40. 40. Q&A @maratz

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