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Anchoring and Consistency (Keith Dowd)
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![Anchoring and Consistency: A New Metacognitive Approach to Understanding the Anchoring-and-Adjustment Effect Keith W. Dowd John V. Petrocelli Wake Forest University Wake Forest University ABSTRACT The purpose of the present research is to test the hypothesis that a metacognitive consistency factor is a mechanism that drives the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic. In a preliminary study, we asked participants to respond to a series of trivia questions requiring them to generate estimates based on a) their prior knowledge (self-generated anchor; SGA) and b) a value that functions as a marker to adjust upward or downwards from (experimenter-provided anchor; EPA). We predicted that one’s final estimate would be adjusted away from the EPA when the consistency between the SGA and the EPA is low. In addition, we hypothesized that SGAs play an important role when estimating unknown quantities and that participants would be aware of their SGAs, regardless of whether they were consciously instructed to report them. Support was found for both of our hypotheses which suggests that consistency may play an important role in the cognitive processes underlying the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SGA FE EPA CA Conditions 1 & 2 SGA FE EPA CA Conditions 3 & 4 SGA FE EPA CA Conditions 5 & 6 DISCUSSION The results of our experiment suggest two ways in which a metacognitive process may operate when people respond to classic anchoring questions. One is the pattern of correct CA judgments made by participants; that is, participants were largely accurate in determining whether or not the EPA was high or low. This finding suggests that they are not only using a self-generated standard of comparison (e.g., SGA) but also actively thinking about it when making estimates about unknown qualities. The other way in which our data support a metacognitive process comes from the recurrent interaction that occurred between consistency and EPAs. Participants appear to be consciously reflecting on the consistency between their SGAs and the EPAs in order to a render a final estimate. Our data also speaks to the spontaneity of SGAs. That is, these estimates were generated by participants regardless of whether or not they were instructed to explicitly report them; which suggests that they play an important role in the operation of the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic because they provide a standard of comparison to contrast against EPAs. The consistency between these two anchors moderates the amount of adjustment in FEs and without the contribution of both of them the anchoring effect may fail to operate. Finally, these data build on the findings of Epley & Gilovitch (2007) because they provide further evidence for the importance of SGAs for the anchoring heuristic while also offering a preliminary process account for its operation. Figure 1 Adjustment from experiment-provided anchor means by experiment-provided anchors and consistency level between self-generated and experiment-provided anchors. U N I V E R S I T Y WAKE FOREST](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/anchoringandconsistencykeithdowd-12754209029589-phpapp01/85/Anchoring-and-Consistency-Keith-Dowd-1-320.jpg)
