22 August 2023… Guest lecture for “Introduction to Global Climate Change (ESS 15)” (Invited): Our changing Arctic in the past and future, University of California, Irvine, CA. Remote Presentation. References... Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895 Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI:10.1029/2022EA002348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002348 Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088583

1. Our changing Arctic
in the past and future
@ZLabe
Zachary Labe
Postdoc at Princeton/GFDL
22 August 2023
University of California, Irvine
ESS 15: Climate Change

2. RESEARCHER
Climate signal vs. weather noise
@ZLabe
COMMUNICATOR
RESEARCHER
Arctic climate change
STORYTELLER
Simple, bold data visualization
ZACHARY LABE
Climate Scientist at Princeton University & NOAA GFDL
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
https://zacklabe.com/

3. The signal (climate change)
The noise (weather)
MY RESEARCH
DISENTANGLES

4. …using tools like artificial intelligence and climate models to understand global climate change
The signal (climate change)
The noise (weather)
MY RESEARCH
DISENTANGLES

5. …using tools like artificial intelligence and climate models to understand global climate change
The signal (climate change)
The noise (weather)
MY RESEARCH
DISENTANGLES

6. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times
faster than the global average!

7. The Arctic is warming more than 3 times
faster than the global average!

10. NOW
Start of
satellite-era

11. The Arctic.

12. The Arctic.

14. Polar Amplification:
acceleration of warming in
high latitudes relative to
the rest of the globe

15. [Goosse
et
al.
2018]

16. Observing ice.

17. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

18. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

19. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow
layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any
amount of ice (>15%)

20. Ice-covered
No Ice

21. Carbon
Brief;
Tom
Prater,
2020

22. LABE ET AL. 2018, JCLI

24. Modeling vs. Field Work

25. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

28. Snow pits

29. Changes to
weather.

30. 7 Feb. 2010

31. JET STREAM
[Visualization
by
NASA/JPL
Hyperwall]

33. Vihma, 2014

34. Cohen et al. 2014

35. Barnes and Screen, 2015

36. Overland et al. 2016

37. Francis, 2017

38. Francis et al. 2017

39. Screen et al. 2018

40. CLIVAR Working Group, 2018

41. Screen et al. 2018

42. Vavrus, 2018

43. Coumou et al. 2018

44. Smith et al. 2019

45. Cohen et al. 2020

46. [Newson, 1973;
Nature]
“…great warming of the
lower layers of the
troposphere over the
Arctic basin... In fact,
there is a lowering of
mid-latitude continental
temperatures near the
surface”

47. MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER

48. MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER

49. MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER
Historical Future

50. MOTIVATION
ARCTIC SEA ICE
MID-LATITUDE
WEATHER
Future
X

51. Why? What is the perturbation?

52. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

53. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
Turbulent heat fluxes
[ SIC ]

54. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
Turbulent heat fluxes
[ SIC + SIT ]

55. Global climate change
Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitude weather
Arctic
Amplification
Changes in:
+ Storm tracks
+ Jet stream
+ Planetary waves
Natural Variability
+ Internal modes
+ Solar cycle
+ Volcanoes
Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes
+ Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss
+ Fall Eurasian snow cover increases
+ Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss
[adapted from Cohen et al., 2014;
Nature Geosciences]
Polar Vortex

56. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF
SEA-ICE LOSS
RELATIVE TO
ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION?

57. Δ2-m
TEMPERATURE
Sea-ice
loss
Arctic
amplification
LABE ET AL. 2020, GRL

58. Looking ahead.

59. October-November – Relative to the years of 1951-1980
Our planet
without change…

62. Observed Arctic
temperatures from
1950 to 2021
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

63. Simulated historical
Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2014
using a climate model
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

64. Simulated Arctic temperatures
from 1930 to 2100 using a
climate model WITHOUT human-
caused climate change
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

65. What influences of climate
change do you see on
temperatures in the Arctic?
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

66. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from
2015 to 2100 using a
climate model with
increases in fossil fuel
development
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

67. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with moderate progress in
mitigation and other
sustainability goals
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

68. Projected future Arctic
temperatures from 2015 to
2100 using a climate model
with a rapid reduction in
current emissions globally
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

69. It’s not
too late!
Climate
Model
–
GFDL
SPEAR
(30
ensemble
members);
Delworth
et
al.
2020

70. It’s not
too late!

71. INPUT
[DATA]
PREDICTION
Machine
Learning

72. NEURAL NETWORK
CLASSIFICATION TASK
HIDDEN LAYERS
INPUT LAYER
OUTPUT LAYER
TEMPERATURE MAP
LABE AND BARNES 2022, ESS

73. APPLY SOFTMAX OPERATOR
IN THE OUTPUT LAYER
RANK
LABE AND BARNES 2022, ESS

74. APPLY SOFTMAX OPERATOR
IN THE OUTPUT LAYER
[ 0.71 ]
[ 0.05 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.03 ]
[ 0.11 ]
[ 0.08 ]
RANK
LABE AND BARNES 2022, ESS

75. APPLY SOFTMAX OPERATOR
IN THE OUTPUT LAYER
[ 0.71 ]
[ 0.05 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.03 ]
[ 0.11 ]
[ 0.08 ]
RANK
[ 1 ]
[ 4 ]
[ 7 ]
[ 6 ]
[ 5 ]
[ 2 ]
[ 3 ]
LABE AND BARNES 2022, ESS

76. APPLY SOFTMAX OPERATOR
IN THE OUTPUT LAYER
[ 0.71 ]
[ 0.05 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.01 ]
[ 0.03 ]
[ 0.11 ]
[ 0.08 ]
RANK
[ 1 ]
[ 4 ]
[ 7 ]
[ 6 ]
[ 5 ]
[ 2 ]
[ 3 ]
Confidence/Probability
LABE AND BARNES 2022, ESS

77. DATA VISUALIZATION
IS STORY-TELLING.
Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2021

79. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

80. 2016 RIO OLYMPICS OPENING CEREMONY

82. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS

83. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
DON’T BE
SUCH A
SCIENTIST
WE ARE
DATA
SCIENTISTS

85. https://showyourstripes.info/

86. PLOT BY ED HAWKINS
https://showyourstripes.info/

87. DON’T BE
SUCH A
SCIENTIST
WE ARE
DATA
SCIENTISTS
ART BY JILL PELTO

88. Landscape of Change uses data
about sea level rise, glacier volume
decline, increasing global
temperatures, and the increasing use
of fossil fuels. These data lines
compose a landscape shaped by
the changing climate, a world in
which we are now living.
Jill Pelto|http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
“
”

89. THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Considering a global view of
temperatures relative to
average – placing weather in
the context of climate

90. THE ARCTIC IS
CHANGING
IN REAL-TIME.
Daily Arctic temperature in
2018 (red) compared to
every year since 1958 in the
month of February. Average
is shown by the white line.

91. THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO COMMUNICATE

93. 2016
Average

94. [International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]
Start a conversation!

96. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
We need scientists.
We need educators.
We need innovators.
We need communicators.

97. KEY POINTS
Climate change effects have already emerged in the Arctic.
Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty in
future climate projections.
We can still prevent the worst of the impacts in the Arctic.
Zachary Labe, PhD
zachary.labe@noaa.gov
@ZLabe
https://zacklabe.com/