Do dreams come true? Aspirations and educational attainments of Ethiopian boys and girls Marta Favara University of Oxford Presented to the 30th Annual Conference of the European Society of Population Economics, Berlin June 16, 2016

1. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Do dreams come true?
Aspirations and educational attainments of Ethiopian
boys and girls
Marta Favara
University of Oxford
marta.favara@qeh.ox.ac.uk
June 16, 2016
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2. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Living in poverty: external and internal constraints
For many years, poverty eradication strategies focused on building up people’s
assets, in the form of human, or physical of financial capital, relying on the as-
sumptions that:
- People become poor and remain poor (solely) because of constraints that are
external to them (Bertrand, Mullainathan and Shafir, 2004).
- Living in poverty does not alter the way people’s make decisions.
Behavioural economists suggest that living in poverty alters peoples decision mak-
ing process, de facto constraining individuals abilities to make efficient decisions
and take up new opportunities when they become available (Duflo, 2003).
- Policies addressing exclusively external constrains, for example by expand-
ing the opportunity set available to people, might not be necessarily effective in
reducing poverty
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3. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
The decision making burden
Making decisions is a time/energies consuming process particularly challenging
for those living in poverty (stress, depression, feeling the pressure of difficult cir-
cumstances; prioritizing short-term rather than long-term investments) (Mani et
al., 2013; Banerjee and Mullainathan, 2010).
People tend to think automatically, guided by habits, using mental short-cuts to
ease the cognitive load of making, assessing, filtering, and interpreting information.
Those mental shortcuts are largely based on social preferences, identities, social
norms, expectations and aspirations (Mullainathan and Thaler, 2000).
They help in reducing the burden of processing and interpreting information, but
they might lead to cognitive biases and to neglect some relevant opportunities
available (WDR, 2015).
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4. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Research Questions
This paper investigates the role of early aspirations for later educational attainments
(as an indicator of cumulative investments in human capital) in a context of poverty
and traditional social expectations and gender roles.
1 Do aspirations predict school attainments? To what extent initial gender gaps in
aspirations are mirrored in later school attainments?
2 What predicts aspirations? What predicts parents’ educational aspirations? To
what extent are parental aspirations an important mediating factor for children’s
aspirations?
3 To what extent early gender gaps in aspirations are correlated to the perpetuation
of gender inequality in later educational outcomes? Is living in poverty equally
detrimental for boys’ and girls’ educational aspirations?
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5. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Aspirations and their role in forward-looking behaviours
Most economic decisions individuals make are forward-looking and are therefore
shaped by the desire or ambition to achieve a goal.
Aspirations are conceptualized as the capacity to visualize the future and engage
in forward-looking behaviour (Locke and Latham, 2002).
They combine the wants and preferences of individuals, information about the
opportunities available, the expectations formed (about the feasibility of those
wants and preferences), and the constraints acknowledged by an individual with
respect to the future (Bertrand et al., 2008).
How far people aspire depends on their own beliefs about what they can achieve
with effort (expectations). People would not aspire to an outcome that is per-
ceived as unattainable (Dalton et al., 2015).
Low expectations and therefore a weak capacity to aspire might undermine ef-
forts and push individuals to dismiss available options considered unattainable
(Appadurai, 2004; Ray, 2006; Duflo, 2012)
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6. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Evidences on aspirations using Young Lives data
Little is known about how aspirations shape decision making (Attanasio et al.,
2014; Reuben et al., 2014; Zafar 2013; Dercon and Singh, 2013; Serneels and
Dercon, 2014; Chiapa, 2012; Locke and Latham, 2002).
Serneel and Dercon (2014) find a positive relationship between aspirations and
schooling in India (aspiring to one additional year of schooling at the age of 12
lifts the grade achieved at the age of 15 by 1.8 years on average). Stronger
correlation among the children from the poorest socio-economic backgrounds and
lower educated mothers.
Dercon and Singh (2013) find a positive link between parental aspirations at the
age of 12 and childrens aspirations at the age of 15 and significant gender biases
in parental aspirations (pro-boys in India and Ethiopia and pro-girls in Vietnam by
the age of 12)
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7. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
About Young Lives
An interdisciplinary study on childhood poverty
Following two cohorts of children in Ethiopia, India, Peru, Vietnam over 15 years
(younger cohort: age 1-12 and older cohort: age 8-19)
Pro-poor sample: 20 sites in each country selected to reflect country diversity,
rural-urban, livelihoods, ethnicity, etc.
Empirical analysis: Ethiopian older cohort; Round 1-4
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8. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Nice features of the data
It is a longitudinal dataset, the only one available for Ethiopia.
Proving with a valuable snapshot of a childs schooling history from primary school
to the transition to post-secondary education or the labour market.
Rich information both at individual and household level.
Cognitive tests (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and Math test) collected for
all children regardless whether they are attending school or not (no selection bias
common to school-based data).
Repeated measures of educational aspirations: parental aspirations collected at
the age of 12 and 15 and children’s aspirations at age of 12, 15 and 19.
- “Imagine you had no constraints and could study for as long as you liked, or
go back to school if you have already left. What level of formal education would
you like to complete?”.
- “Ideally what level of formal education would you like child’s name to com-
plete?”.
Parental non-educational expectations (about childbearing, and marriage and
financial independence) measured at age 12.
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9. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
School enrolment and educational attainments
- Late-age enrolment is quite common.
- Girls start school earlier and drop out later than boys.
- On average at age 19 they complete about 8 years of education.
- The higher enrolment rate among girls beyond age of 15 can be explained by the
division of labour which in Ethiopia is markedly gendered: girls do primarily
domestic work within the household and boys tend to work predominantly
outside the household in herding or farming activities.
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10. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Aspirations over time
Boys aspirations decrease over time while girls aspirations increase, particularly
after age 15.
On average, boys have higher aspirations than girls at the age of 12 and 15 (77%
and 83% of them aspires to university vs. 68% and 73% of girls).
By age 19, three out of four girls aspire to university and the pro-boys gender gap
vanishes.
Similarly parents have higher aspirations for the education of their boys at both
the age of 12 and 15.
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11. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Aspirations and socio-economic status
- Aspirations are generally high but positively correlated wealth (84% and 67% of
respectively the richest and the poorest children aspire to university).
- The gender gap in terms of aspirations is the highest among the poorest house-
holds.
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12. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict school
attainment? (1)
There is a positive relationship between early aspirations (parental and child edu-
cational aspirations at age 15) and later educational attainments (mean number of
school years completed at age 19).
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13. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict school
attainment? (2)
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14. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict school
attainment? (3)
Both parental and childrens (lagged) aspirations are strong predictors of educa-
tional attainments at the age of 15 and 19.
The correlation between childrens aspirations and educational attainment increases
over time.
The correlation between (lagged) childrens aspirations and the number of school
years completed at the age of 15 and 19 is between 2 and 4 times the correlation
with (lagged) parental aspirations.
Most of correlation between educational attainments and parental aspirations go
through childrens aspirations.
On average, children performing better in the two cognitive tests and scoring higher
in pride stay longer at school.
Upon conditioning for the childs cognitive skills and psychosocial competencies,
the estimated coefficient for childrens aspirations reduces by half (column 3 and
6).
The pro-girl differential in the number of years of schooling completed is statisti-
cally significant since age 15 and triplicate by age 19.
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15. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
To what extent aspirations predict educational attainment
differently for boys and girls? (1)
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16. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
To what extent aspirations predict educational attainment
differently for boys and girls? (2)
By age 15 boys whose parents aspiring to university for them have completed a
relatively higher number of school years than comparable girls.
Similarly, at both ages 15 and 19 boys aspiring to university achieve a higher grade
than comparable girls.
The process of sorting into education after the age of 15 end up selecting a group
of highly motivated male students supported by their parents willing to postpone
their entrance in the labor market.
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17. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
What predicts parental aspirations? (1)
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18. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
What predicts parental aspirations? (2)
More educated caregivers, living in urban areas and in households that experience
less shocks, on average, are more likely to aspire to university.
Parental aspirations are positively correlated with the child’s math score.
There is a pro-boy bias in parental aspirations at the age of 15
This gender bias is robust after controlling for individual, household level charac-
teristics and parental expectations.
Conditioning for parental expectations the gender bias at the age of 15 does not
reduce the pro-boys gender bias in parental aspirations.
Parents who expect their children to leave the household and/or get married at
older ages are more likely to aspire to university for their daughters than for their
sons.
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19. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Inter-generational transmission of aspirations
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20. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Children’s aspirations: heterogeneous capacity to aspire
Having parents aspiring to university is equally correlated to boys and girls aspira-
tions.
Girls living in poor households are 12 percentage points less likely to aspire to
university at the age of 15 than boys living in similar contexts.
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21. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Conclusions
A positive correlation between early aspirations and the number of schooling years
completed at age 15 and 19
The correlation is stronger among boys particularly after the age of 15 when the
opportunity costs of staying in school increase relatively more for boys than for
girls.
Boys and girls adapt and change their aspirations over time: boys revising their
aspirations downward and girls, who initially chose a suboptimal level of aspiration
and filter out university as an attainable goal, at the age of 15 start reconsidering
it as an attainable goal.
Expectations about the future of their children shape parental aspirations (getting
married and leave the household)
We document a positive correlation between parental aspirations at the age of 15
and childs aspirations at the age of 19.
Girls living in poverty might face a higher risk than boys in getting trapped in a
spiral of low aspirations-low investments.
So, do people realize their aspirations? Overall, we found a positive correlation
between aspirations and educational attainments. However, while on one side girls
achievements outdo their initial aspirations, on the other side, boys who initially
aspire to get to university drop out earlier.
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22. Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion
Thank you!
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