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4. ✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ Fed bows to market's more dovish view of soaring dollar :
The US central bank's far more modest inflation predictions, released on Wednesday, suggest
that the strong currency and sagging oil prices are spooking policymakers more than they have
let on. It sets the stage for later rate hikes than they expected, but which many investors have
long anticipated. The Federal Reserve's back-pedaling on how aggressively it plans to raise
interest rates acknowledges that the more dovish financial markets were right all along: turns
out, the soaring dollar has stalled its policy-tightening plan. The US central bank's far more
modest inflation predictions, released on Wednesday, suggest that the strong currency and
sagging oil prices are spooking policymakers more than they have let on. It sets the stage for
later rate hikes than they expected, but which many investors have long anticipated. A stronger
dollar hurts US exporters and, along with cheap oil, puts further pressure on already weak
inflation. In effect, it tightens financial conditions even while the Fed keeps its key policy rate
near zero. "The Fed did not have to say it. The forecasts tell the story. The FOMC cares about
the dollar," Jens Nordvig, global head of FX at Nomura, said of the policy-setting Federal Open
Market Committee. Forecasts published after a two-day meeting show that Fed policymakers
expect rates to rise to only about 0.6 percent by year end, down from a median of 1.1 percent in
December. The 17 officials also slashed predictions for economic growth and inflation over the
next two years. The dollar has spiked 22 percent against a basket of currencies since the Fed
published its December forecast, continuing a trend since last summer. Oil prices have fallen
about 25 percent in that time. The central bank's revisions effectively align policymakers with
investors, who have mostly refused to believe a rate hike will come until September or later.
Wall Street's top economists, who have long called for a June rate hike, now point to
September, according to a Reuters poll. The Fed has, in effect, tied policy to the dollar. "It is
now clear the bond market is not moving towards the Fed; the Fed is moving towards the bond
market," said Tim Duy, a professor at the University of Oregon and a former US Treasury
economist. He added that the Fed recognised the negative effects of a rising currency.
✍ US monetary policies making emerging economies weak :
IMF Speaking at the opening of China Development Forum here, Christine Lagarde said, the
world has yet to achieve full economic recovery as global growth continues to be weighed
down by high debt, high unemployment and lacklustre investment. The tightening of monetary
policies by the US at a time when other countries are easing theirs could make emerging
economies "vulnerable" as many of their firms and banks have sharply increased their
borrowings in dollars in the last five years, the IMF Chief warned on Sunday. Speaking at the
opening of China Development Forum here, Christine Lagarde said, the world has yet to
achieve full economic recovery as global growth continues to be weighed down by high debt,
high unemployment and lacklustre investment. Referring to IMF's recent forecast to cut global
5. growth to 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 2016 despite the boost from cheaper oil and
stronger US growth, she said the global recovery remained fragile because of significant risks.
✍ Euro-dollar parity may be more elusive after Fed :
The dollar index slumped as much as 3 percent in the worst selloff in six years, after a dovish
US central bank on Wednesday pared back its own forecasts for interest rate hikes, cut its
outlook for inflation and warned the economy has been moderating. The Fed tripped up the
dollar's rally and may have pushed the greenback into a short-term correction with its forecasts
for a slower pace of interest rate hikes, strategists say. The dollar index slumped as much as 3
percent in the worst selloff in six years, after a dovish US central bank on Wednesday pared
back its own forecasts for interest rate hikes, cut its outlook for inflation and warned the
economy has been moderating. The euro hit a high of about USD1.10 to the dollar, in
Wednesday afternoon trading, from a low point of USD1.05. As the dollar fell, stocks rallied
and bond yields declined. The strengthening greenback has been a key factor in markets,
sending ripples through US equities, as traders worry about its impact on the profits of
multinationals. The strong dollar has also fanned fears about deflation, as it pounded
commodities markets, like oil and gold and weighed on emerging markets.
BULLION
✍ Gold prices likely to trade positive:
Gold prices are likely to trade positive on the back of dovish US fed statements. Gold prices hit
two-week highs on Friday and were poised for their biggest weekly jump since mid-January,
after the U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious note on interest rates arrested a dollar rally and
sparked broadbased buying of commodities. Spot gold has risen over 2 percent this week,
recovering from a fourmonth low touched on Tuesday under pressure from expectations that
the U.S. central bank is on track for its first interest rate increase in nearly a decade. Such a
move would boost the dollar and lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The
Fed, however, indicated it preferred a more gradual path.
✍ Gold at near two-week high as dollar tumbles:
Spot gold gained 0.6 percent to USD 1,174.26 an ounce by 0041 GMT, after earlier climbing to
USD 1,175.05, its highest since March 9. The metal gained 1.6 percent on Wednesday, its
biggest one-day jump since Jan. 30. Gold extended gains on Thursday to its highest level in
nearly two weeks as the dollar tumbled after the Federal Reserve signalled a slower pace of US
interest rate hike and caution on US economic growth. FUNDAMENTALS Spot gold gained
0.6 percent to USD 1,174.26 an ounce by 0041 GMT, after earlier climbing to USD 1,175.05,
6. its highest since March 9. The metal gained 1.6 percent on Wednesday, its biggest one-day
jump since Jan. 30. The Fed on Wednesday moved a step closer to hiking rates for the first time
since 2006, but downgraded its economic growth and inflation projections, signalling it is in no
rush to push borrowing costs to more normal levels. The US central bank removed a reference
to being "patient" on rates from its policy statement, opening the door wider for a hike in the
next couple of months while sounding a cautious note on the health of the economic recovery.
It also slashed its median estimate for the federal funds rate. Fed Chair Janet Yellen also
sounded uncomfortable with the strength of the dollar, saying it would be a "notable drag" on
exports and a downward force on inflation. The dollar has gained nearly 8 percent this year
against a basket of major currencies as strong US economic data boosted expectations the Fed
would soon start raising interest rates. Diverging global monetary policies have also helped.
Gold, on the other hand, fell to a four-month low earlier this week as fears mounted regarding
higher interest rates. The Fed's caution brought some bullion investors back on board.
ENERGY
✍ Crude oil surges amid weak dollar and new federal standards on fracting:
Crude oil futures soared on Friday afternoon, amid a weaker U.S. dollar and the release of new
standards for fracking on federal lands by the White House. On the New York Mercantile
Exchange, WTI crude oil for April delivery surged more than 5% or 2.21 to $46.17 a barrel,
before settling at $45.87 at Friday's close. Future contracts for May delivery of Texas Light
Sweet crude also increased 1.16 or 2.54% to 46.69. Oil prices shot up as the dollar continued to
weaken in the wake of relatively dovish comments from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen
earlier in the week. While the Fed removed its stance of remaining patient on its timing of a
potential interest rate hike, Yellen appeared to strike a dovish tone with lower forecasts on
inflation and GDP growth. The U.S. central bank also forecasted that interest rates will rise at a
slower pace than had previously been expected. Yellen's comments have sent the dollar
spiraling from 11-year highs reached last week. The euro rose nearly 2% against the dollar in
U.S. afternoon trading to 1.0867, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 1.35% to 98.11. Speculative
oil traders used the weakening dollar to hedge their positions in crude. Meanwhile, the U.S.
Interior Department on Friday approved the most comprehensive set of rules to date on how to
govern drilling on Federal lands using hydraulic fracturing, a process where high-pressured
fluid composed of water, chemicals and sand is injected into deep-rock formations creating
cracks wide enough in the rocks to allow shale gas to flow more freely. The new regulations
could impact approximately 100,000 oil and gas wells on Federally managed land throughout
the country. Among the new standards, the Interior Department will require firms to disclose
the chemicals they use in the fracking process, improve standards for storing waste and
construct stronger cement barriers to prevent oil leaks. In response two oil industry groups filed
a lawsuit to challenge the regulatory changes, Politico.com. As oil prices have headed on a
7. downward trend in recent months, Saudi Arabia's oil minister last week blamed shale producers
in the U.S. for the precipitous drop. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for
May delivery rose 0.85 or 1.56% to $55.28 a barrel. It came one day after Ali al-Omair,
Kuwait's oil minister, indicated that current market conditions have forced Opec to maintain its
production level. While al-Omair said Kuwait "will be very happy if other producers cut
output," he added that the world's 10th largest oil producer can't afford to "lose its share in the
market." Kuwait currently produces crude oil at a rate of approximately 3 million barrels per
day. Crude oil futures remained relatively unchanged after oil services firm Baker Hughes
(NYSE:BHI) released its weekly rig count on Friday afternoon. U.S. oil rigs for the week
ending Mar. 6 declined by 41 to 825. The report comes one day after the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) said in a report that oil is being pumped in the U.S. at its fastest rate in
nearly 30 years.
✍ Oil prices drop after Saudi says it'll not cut output alone:
Oil prices dropped around a percentage point in early Asian trade on Monday after Saudi
Arabia said over the weekend that it would not unilaterally cut its output to defend prices. Since
oil prices started to fall in June 2014, many analysts have expected Saudi Arabia, OPEC's
biggest producer, to curb its output. Yet Riyadh has so far opted to keep output stable in a move
to defend market share against non-OPEC producers like Russia and the United States, where
production has soared as a result of the shale exploration boom. "We tried, we held meetings
and we did not succeed because countries (outside OPEC) were insisting that OPEC carry the
burden and we refuse that OPEC bears the responsibility," Naimi said. "The production of
OPEC is 30 percent of the market, 70 percent from non-OPEC ... everybody is supposed to
participate if we want to improve prices," Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday.
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures was trading at USD 54.79 a barrel at 0123 GMT, down 53
cents from their last settlement. USD WTI crude was down 58 cents at USD 45.99 a barrel.
8. NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ Govt launches scheme to promote start-ups in agro industry :
On Wednesday, government launched a scheme to promote start-ups in the agro industry sector
with a corpus of Rs 200 crore.
Under the scheme, a framework for start-up promotion will be created through the Small
Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) by using means of finance, such as equity,
quasi-equity, angel funds, venture capital funds, impact funds, among others. The Ministry
announced the setting up of 500 new incubation centres across India by next year.
Launching the scheme here, MSME Minister Kalraj Mishra said the scheme was formulated to
set up a network of technology and incubation centres to accelerate entrepreneurship and
promote start-ups for innovation and entrepreneurship in agro-industry.
As a first step, the scheme will create a database of technologies available with various
Government/private agencies and set up a Network of Technology Centres for handholding of
prospective entrepreneurs of MSME sector, Mishra said.
The second component is to develop the required skilled human resources necessary for
mentoring and handholding incubatees. Under this, special efforts will be made to identify,
support and expand the role of competitive Indian MSMEs in a global economy.
Capacity building including awards, surveys, studies, exposure visits, engagement of
consultants including monitoring and evaluation will be conducted with an estimated
expenditure of Rs 17.75 crore.
The third component is to set up Livelihood Business Incubators (LBI) under the National
Small Industries Corporation (NSIC), KVIC or Coir Board among others to replicate the
NSIC’s model of "Rapid Incubation Centres", which is a mix of "promotion of entrepreneurship
and skill development" and involves setting up of live "demo projects".
The total allocated budget under this head would be Rs 62.50 crore for setting up 80 LBIs,
skilling a targeted 10,400 youth over three years.
✍ Agri Ministry assigns officials to assess crop damage :
The Agriculture Ministry has assigned officials to different States for assessing the damage to
crops due to hailstorm and heavy rains.
R.P. Singh, Director, Directorate of Cotton Development, will assess the damage in
Maharashtra, A.K. Tiwari, Director, Directorate of Pulses Development, in Madhya Pradesh, M
9. C Diwakar, Director, Directorate of Sugarcane Development, in Uttar Pradesh, Narender
Kumar, Director-in-charge, Directorate of Wheat Development, in Haryana, A. Ansari,
Statistical Investigator, Directorate of Millets Development in Rajasthan, Subhash Chander,
Joint Director, Directorate of Millets Development, in Gujarat and Mahesh Kumar, Assistant
Director, Directorate of Wheat Development, will survey Punjab.
A team under a Joint Secretary has been appointed to survey/ assess the loss in drought-affected
areas in districts of Rayalseema.
✍ Edible oil imports can cross 1.25 cr tonnes in marketing year ’14-15
With edible oil imports increasing by 22.7 per cent in the first four months of the current oil
marketing year, India’s total edible oil imports are expected to be around 1.25 crore tonnes due
to lower production estimates.
Edible oil imports in the first four months of the current oil marketing year, from November
2014 to February 2015, rose by 22.7 per cent from 34.2 lakh tonnes to 41.9 lakh tonnes.
Production of nine oilseeds during 2014-15 is estimated at 2.98 crore tonnes . This shows a
drop of around 9.7 per cent compared to 3.27 crore tonnes of production during 2013-14,
according to final official estimates. These oilseeds include groundnut, castorseed, sesamum,
nigerseed, rapeseed, linseed, safflower, sunflower, and soybean.
Imports are growing despite a shrinking edible oil import basket. “India has completely stopped
imports of cottonseed oil since the last five years due to abundant cotton supply. Import of other
edible oils such as safflower and coconut oil has also fallen to nil since the last couple of years.
Despite lower production estimates, domestic prices of edible oils, excluding groundnut, have
fallen drastically in the last few months owing to a drop in the price of these oils in the global
market.International prices of these oils have fallen as there is abundant supply from markets
such as Brazil, Argentina, the US, Indonesia and Malaysia.
✍ Edible oils rule steady
In edible oils market, barring palmolein which gained 3, all other oils ruled steady on back of
thin volatility in futures amid slack demand. Picking up in arrivals of oilseeds kept indigenous
oils under pressure. Quoting palmolein Rat 500, super palmolein 520 and soyabean refined oil
580. Ruchi traded palmolein at 500, soyabean refined oil 575 and sunflower refined oil 625
March-April. Allana’s rates: palmolein 500, super palmolein 525, soyabean refined oil576 and
sunflower oil 630.
10. ✍ Chana falls by 0.5% on WEAK spot demand
Chana prices fell by 0.50% to Rs 3,613 per quintal in futures trade on friday due to a weak
trend at spot market on subdued demand.
Also, adequate stocks position in the physical market on higher supplies from major producing
belts fuelled the downtrend.
At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in May fell by Rs 18,
or 0.50%, to Rs 3,613 per quintal with an open interest of 1,01,970 lots.
Likewise, the commodity for delivery in April traded lower by Rs 17, or 0.47%, to Rs 3,587 per
quintal in 1,45,090 lots. The offloading of positions by speculators amid subdued demand in
spot market against adequate stocks position mainly kept pressure on chana prices at futures
trade.
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