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Production and Growth
Chapter 24
Copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
All rights reserved. Requests for permission to make copies of any part of
the
work should be mailed to:
Permissions Department, Harcourt College Publishers,
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Production and Growth
A country’s standard of living
depends on its ability to
produce goods and services.
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Production and Growth
Within a country there are
large changes in the
standard of living over time.
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Production and Growth
In the United States over the past
century, average income as measured
by real GDP per person has grown by
about 2 percent per year.
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Production and Growth
Productivity refers to the amount of
goods and services produced for each
hour of a worker’s time.
A nation’s standard of living is
determined by the productivity of its
workers.
The Variety of Growth Experiences
Country Period
Real GDPper
Person at
Beginning of Period
Real GDPper
Person at End
of Period
Growth Rate
(per year)
Japan 1890-1997 $1,196 $23,400 2.82%
Brazil 1900-1990 619 6,240 2.41
Mexico 1900-1997 922 8,120 2.27
Germany 1870-1997 1,738 21,300 1.99
Canada 1870-1997 1,890 21,860 1,95
China 1900-1997 570 3,570 1.91
Argentina 1900-1997 1,824 9,950 1.76
United States 1870-1997 3,188 28,740 1.75
Indonesia 1900-1997 708 3,450 1.65
United Kingdom 1870-1997 3,826 20,520 1.33
India 1900-1997 537 1,950 1.34
Pakistan 1900-1997 587 1,590 1.03
Bangladesh 1900-1997 495 1,050 0.78
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Economic Growth Around the
World
Living standards, as measured
by real GDP per person, vary
significantly among nations.
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Economic Growth Around the
World
The poorest countries have
average levels of income that
have not been seen in the United
States for many decades.
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Compounding and the
Rule of 70
Annual growth rates that seem small
become large when compounded for
many years.
Compounding refers to the
accumulation of a growth rate over a
period of time.
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Compounding and the
Rule of 70
According to the rule of 70, if some
variable grows at a rate of x percent
per year, then that variable doubles
in approximately 70/x years.
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An Example of the Rule of 70
$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per
year, will double in size in 10 years
70/ 7 = 10
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Why Productivity Is So Important
Productivity plays a key role in
determining living standards
for all nations in the world.
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Why Productivity Is So Important
Productivity refers to the quantity of
goods and services that a worker can
produce from each hour of work.
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Why Productivity Is So Important
To understand the large differences in
living standards across countries. We
must focus on the production of goods
and services.
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How Productivity is Determined
The inputs used to produce goods and
services are called the factors of
production.
The factors of production directly
determine productivity.
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The Factors of Production
Physical capital
Human capital
Natural resources
Technological knowledge
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The Factors of Production
Capital is a produced factor of
production.
It is an input into the production
process that in the past was an
output from the production process.
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Physical Capital
Physical capital is the stock of
equipment and structures that are
used to produce goods and services.
Tools used to build or repair
automobiles.
Tools used to build furniture.
Office buildings, schools, etc.
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Human Capital
Human capital is the economist’s term
for the knowledge and skills that workers
acquire through education, training, and
experience.
Like physical capital, human capital raises a
nation’s ability to produce goods and
services.
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Natural resources are inputs used in
production that are provided by nature,
such as land, rivers, and mineral
deposits.
Renewable resources include trees and
forests.
Nonrenewable resources include petroleum
and coal.
Natural Resources
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Natural Resources
Natural resources can be important
but are not necessary for an economy
to be highly productive in producing
goods and services.
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Technological Knowledge
Technological knowledge is the
understanding of the best ways to
produce goods and services.
Human capital refers to the resources
expended transmitting this
understanding to the labor force.
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The Production Function
Economists often use a production
function to describe the relationship
between the quantity of inputs used
in production and the quantity of
output from production.
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The Production Function
Y = A F(L, K, H, N)
Y = quantity of output
A = available production technology
L = quantity of labor
K = quantity of physical capital
H = quantity of human capital
N = quantity of natural resources
F( ) is a function that shows how the
inputs are combined.
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The Production Function
A production function has constant returns
to scale if, for any positive number x,
xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)
That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the
amount of output to double as well.
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The Production Function
Production functions with constant returns to
scale have an interesting implication.
Setting x = 1/L,
Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)
Where:
Y/L = output per worker
K/L = physical capital per worker
H/L = human capital per worker
N/L = natural resources per worker
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The Production Function
The preceding equation says that
productivity (Y/L) depends on physical
capital per worker (K/L), human capital
per worker (H/L), and natural resources
per worker (N/L), as well as the state of
technology, (A).
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Economic Growth and
Public Policy
Governments can do many
things to raise productivity
and living standards.
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Government Policies That Raise
Productivity and Living Standards
Encourage saving and investment.
Encourage investment from abroad
Encourage education and training.
Establish secure property rights and
maintain political stability.
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Government Policies That Raise
Productivity and Living Standards
Promote free trade.
Control population growth.
Promote research and
development.
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The Importance of Saving and
Investment
One way to raise future productivity is
to invest more current resources in the
production of capital.
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(a) Growth Rate 1960-1991 (b) Investment 1960-1991
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
Growth Rate (percent)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
Investment (percent of GDP)
0 10 20 30 40
Growth and Investment
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The Importance of Saving and
Investment
As the stock of capital rises, the extra
output produced from an additional unit
of capital falls; this property is called
diminishing returns.
Because of diminishing returns, an
increase in the saving rate leads to
higher growth only for a while.
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The Importance of Saving and
Investment
In the long run, the higher saving rate
leads to a higher level of productivity
and income, but not to higher growth in
these areas.
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The Importance of Saving and
Investment
The catch-up effect refers to the
condition that, other things being equal,
it is easier for a country to grow fast if it
starts out relatively poor.
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Investment from Abroad
Governments can increase capital
accumulation and long-term economic
growth by encouraging investment
from foreign sources.
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Investment from Abroad
Investment from abroad takes several
forms:
Foreign Direct Investment
Capital investment owned and operated by a
foreign entity.
Foreign Portfolio Investment
Investments financed with foreign money but
operated by domestic residents.
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Education
For a country’s long-run growth, education
is at least as important as investment in
physical capital.
In the United States, each year of schooling
raises a person’s wage on average by about 10
percent.
Thus, one way the government can enhance the
standard of living is to provide schools and
encourage the population to take advantage of
them.
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Education
An educated person might generate new
ideas about how best to produce goods
and services, which in turn, might enter
society’s pool of knowledge and provide
an external benefit to others.
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Education
One problem facing some poor
countries is the brain drain--the
emigration of many of the most highly
educated workers to rich countries.
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Property Rights and Political
Stability
Property rights refer to the ability of
people to exercise authority over the
resources they own.
An economy-wide respect for property
rights is an important prerequisite for the
price system to work.
It is necessary for investors to feel that
their investments are secure.
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Free Trade
Trade is, in some ways, a type of
technology.
A country that eliminates trade
restrictions will experience the same
kind of economic growth that would
occur after a major technological
advance.
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Free Trade
Some countries engage in . . .
. . . inward-orientated trade policies,
avoiding interaction with other countries.
. . . outward-orientated trade policies,
encouraging interaction with other
countries.
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Control of Population Growth
Population is a key determinant of a
country’s labor force.
Large populations tend to produce greater
total GDP.
However, GDP per person is a better
measure of economic well-being, and high
population growth reduces GDP per person.
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Research and Development
The advance of technological knowledge
has led to higher standards of living.
Most technological advance comes from private
research by firms and individual inventors.
Government can encourage the development of
new technologies through research grants, tax
breaks, and the patent system.
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The Productivity Slowdown
From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a
rate of 3.2 percent per year.
From 1973 to 1998 productivity grew by
only 1.3 percent per year.
The slowdown in economic growth has
been one of the most important problems
facing economic policymakers.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The Productivity Slowdown
The slowdown in productivity growth is
a worldwide phenomenon.
The slowdown cannot be traced to those
factors of production that are most
easily measured – technology may be the
key.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1870-
1890
1890-
1910
1910-
1930
1930-
1950
1950-
1970
1970-
1990
0
The Growth in Real GDP Per PersonGrowthRate(%per
year)
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary
Economic prosperity, as measured by real
GDP per person, varies substantially
around the world.
The average income of the world’s richest
countries is more than ten times that in the
world’s poorest countries.
The standard of living in an economy
depends on the economy’s ability to
produce goods and services.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary
Productivity depends on the amounts
of physical capital, human capital,
natural resources, and technological
knowledge available to workers.
Government policies can influence the
economy’s growth rate in many
different ways.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Summary
The accumulation of capital is subject to
diminishing returns.
Because of diminishing returns, higher
saving leads to a higher growth for a
period of time, but growth will eventually
slow down.
Also because of diminishing returns, the
return to capital is especially high in poor
countries.
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
Graphical
Review
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
(a) Growth Rate 1960-1991 (b) Investment 1960-1991
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
Growth Rate (percent)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Israel
Canada
Brazil
West Germany
Mexico
United Kingdom
Nigeria
United States
India
Bangladesh
Chile
Rwanda
Investment (percent of GDP)
0 10 20 30 40
Growth and Investment
Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
The Growth in Real GDP Per Person
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1870-
1890
1890-
1910
1910-
1930
1930-
1950
1950-
1970
1970-
1990
0
GrowthRate(%per
year)

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Production and Growth

  • 1. Production and Growth Chapter 24 Copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Requests for permission to make copies of any part of the work should be mailed to: Permissions Department, Harcourt College Publishers,
  • 2. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Production and Growth A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.
  • 3. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Production and Growth Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.
  • 4. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Production and Growth In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.
  • 5. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Production and Growth Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a worker’s time. A nation’s standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.
  • 6. The Variety of Growth Experiences Country Period Real GDPper Person at Beginning of Period Real GDPper Person at End of Period Growth Rate (per year) Japan 1890-1997 $1,196 $23,400 2.82% Brazil 1900-1990 619 6,240 2.41 Mexico 1900-1997 922 8,120 2.27 Germany 1870-1997 1,738 21,300 1.99 Canada 1870-1997 1,890 21,860 1,95 China 1900-1997 570 3,570 1.91 Argentina 1900-1997 1,824 9,950 1.76 United States 1870-1997 3,188 28,740 1.75 Indonesia 1900-1997 708 3,450 1.65 United Kingdom 1870-1997 3,826 20,520 1.33 India 1900-1997 537 1,950 1.34 Pakistan 1900-1997 587 1,590 1.03 Bangladesh 1900-1997 495 1,050 0.78 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.
  • 7. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Economic Growth Around the World Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations.
  • 8. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Economic Growth Around the World The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the United States for many decades.
  • 9. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Compounding and the Rule of 70 Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years. Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.
  • 10. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Compounding and the Rule of 70 According to the rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.
  • 11. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. An Example of the Rule of 70 $5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will double in size in 10 years 70/ 7 = 10
  • 12. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Why Productivity Is So Important Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.
  • 13. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Why Productivity Is So Important Productivity refers to the quantity of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work.
  • 14. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Why Productivity Is So Important To understand the large differences in living standards across countries. We must focus on the production of goods and services.
  • 15. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How Productivity is Determined The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production. The factors of production directly determine productivity.
  • 16. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Factors of Production Physical capital Human capital Natural resources Technological knowledge
  • 17. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Factors of Production Capital is a produced factor of production. It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process.
  • 18. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Physical Capital Physical capital is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. Tools used to build or repair automobiles. Tools used to build furniture. Office buildings, schools, etc.
  • 19. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Human Capital Human capital is the economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience. Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services.
  • 20. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Natural resources are inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. Renewable resources include trees and forests. Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal. Natural Resources
  • 21. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Natural Resources Natural resources can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services.
  • 22. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Technological Knowledge Technological knowledge is the understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force.
  • 23. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Production Function Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production.
  • 24. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Production Function Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of output A = available production technology L = quantity of labor K = quantity of physical capital H = quantity of human capital N = quantity of natural resources F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.
  • 25. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Production Function A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN) That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well.
  • 26. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Production Function Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication. Setting x = 1/L, Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Where: Y/L = output per worker K/L = physical capital per worker H/L = human capital per worker N/L = natural resources per worker
  • 27. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Production Function The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).
  • 28. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Economic Growth and Public Policy Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.
  • 29. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards Encourage saving and investment. Encourage investment from abroad Encourage education and training. Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability.
  • 30. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards Promote free trade. Control population growth. Promote research and development.
  • 31. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Importance of Saving and Investment One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.
  • 32. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. (a) Growth Rate 1960-1991 (b) Investment 1960-1991 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Growth Rate (percent) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Investment (percent of GDP) 0 10 20 30 40 Growth and Investment
  • 33. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Importance of Saving and Investment As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns. Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.
  • 34. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Importance of Saving and Investment In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.
  • 35. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Importance of Saving and Investment The catch-up effect refers to the condition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.
  • 36. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Investment from Abroad Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.
  • 37. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Investment from Abroad Investment from abroad takes several forms: Foreign Direct Investment Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. Foreign Portfolio Investment Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents.
  • 38. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Education For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. In the United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage on average by about 10 percent. Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.
  • 39. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Education An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.
  • 40. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Education One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drain--the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.
  • 41. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Property Rights and Political Stability Property rights refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own. An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work. It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.
  • 42. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Free Trade Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology. A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.
  • 43. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Free Trade Some countries engage in . . . . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries.
  • 44. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Control of Population Growth Population is a key determinant of a country’s labor force. Large populations tend to produce greater total GDP. However, GDP per person is a better measure of economic well-being, and high population growth reduces GDP per person.
  • 45. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Research and Development The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living. Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors. Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.
  • 46. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Productivity Slowdown From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a rate of 3.2 percent per year. From 1973 to 1998 productivity grew by only 1.3 percent per year. The slowdown in economic growth has been one of the most important problems facing economic policymakers.
  • 47. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Productivity Slowdown The slowdown in productivity growth is a worldwide phenomenon. The slowdown cannot be traced to those factors of production that are most easily measured – technology may be the key.
  • 48. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1870- 1890 1890- 1910 1910- 1930 1930- 1950 1950- 1970 1970- 1990 0 The Growth in Real GDP Per PersonGrowthRate(%per year)
  • 49. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantially around the world. The average income of the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest countries. The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services.
  • 50. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary Productivity depends on the amounts of physical capital, human capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge available to workers. Government policies can influence the economy’s growth rate in many different ways.
  • 51. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Summary The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns. Because of diminishing returns, higher saving leads to a higher growth for a period of time, but growth will eventually slow down. Also because of diminishing returns, the return to capital is especially high in poor countries.
  • 52. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Graphical Review
  • 53. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. (a) Growth Rate 1960-1991 (b) Investment 1960-1991 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Growth Rate (percent) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Investment (percent of GDP) 0 10 20 30 40 Growth and Investment
  • 54. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. The Growth in Real GDP Per Person 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1870- 1890 1890- 1910 1910- 1930 1930- 1950 1950- 1970 1970- 1990 0 GrowthRate(%per year)